Redding was awful today, allowing five runs in 2.1 innings. He had no control, and let a team of no names knock him around. Redding’s ERA now sits at 6.99 on the year, and I’d imagine Manuel’s patience is wearing thin with Tim. With Oliver Perez’s return right around the corner, Redding will most definitely be the one to get bumped to the bullpen. He will probably get moved to the long man role and will bump one of Bobby Parnell or Elmer Dessens from the big league pen. If Redding is used as nothing but a long man, that is fine, but I do not want this guy pitching in late game situations as a righty out of the pen. Redding had a decent start against the Cards two starts back, but still allowed four runs. He was cruising in his last start against the Yankees, but then hit a snag and completely unraveled.

Redding was brought here to be the longman, but with Livan Hernandez pitching like he is, and the emergence of Fernando Nieve, Redding looks to be the odd man out. Hopefully Jerry sees Redding as nothing but a longman, because he is what he is: a journeyman right hander who received a few million off a mediocre season in no pressure Washington.

I haven’t been much of a Jerry supporter of late, but maybe a coming together is what this team needed. The team took a bus to yesterday’s game together, and won a huge game for the team’s psyche. The Mets got nothing from Tim Redding today, but the offense picked him up. Francisco Rodriguez blew the save, but once again Church provided the game winning hit for the second straight day in the 10th to pickup his teammate.

The team is riding high going into a big three game set with the Phillies, and they must feel very good going against a Phillies team who has struggled mightily of late. Let’s Go Mets!

Perez is having a nightmare season, with an ERA an eyelash under 10, and more walks than strikeouts in only 21.2 innings pitched. After being sent to the minors to work on his control, Perez injured his knee and has been on the road to recovery ever since.

He recently had an encouraging outing in the minors, pitching five shutout innings, striking out seven and walking none. He should be on his way back to the majors soon, although his role is still undefined.

For the record, I was in favor of giving Perez a 3-year contract worth $30 million. I don’t understand why Minaya seemingly bid against himself and added $6 million to the deal (it seemed as if no other team was going to touch Perez).

But the fact remains, I would rather sign the 27 year old Perez for 3 years than the 36 year old Lowe for 4. Obviously, I did not anticipate that the season would start so disastrously for Ollie.

Still, in an effort to save face and give Mets fans some hope, I remain confident that Perez will return and provide exactly what everyone expects: the unexpected. One day he’ll go seven strong and the next he’ll last only three innings.

But as aggravating as this is to watch on a day-to-day basis, the end result is a pitcher who is still better than the average bear.

Over the last two years, Perez was 25-17 with a 3.91 ERA, 354 K and 184 BB in 371 IP. I’d take those numbers over a guy like Randy Wolf (who hasn’t had an ERA under 4 since 2002) or Jon Garland (who has had an ERA under 4 only once in his career).

I doubt he will ever be able to put it all together and take his game to the next level, but I do think that he will be almost worth his contract over the next couple of years. And in today’s economy, isn’t it enough to get almost what you paid for?

At the time he was signed, Lowe was easily the most appealing pitcher on the market.  At one point, it seemed as if the Mets signing Lowe to a 3 year deal was imminent.  But when the Braves upped their offer to include a 4^th year, Minaya decided not to overspend.

While I was upset that the Mets let Lowe get away, I understood that the 4th year and the extra money was a deal breaker.  Signing old players has been a weakness of Minaya’s, but maybe he is starting to learn from his mistakes.

In 17 games for the Braves, Derek Lowe is 7-6 with a 4.44 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, 55 strikeouts, 35 walks over 101.1 innings.  His deal with the Braves is worth $60 million over 4 years, which means he’ll be making $15 mil as a 39 year old.

He is only 10 walks away from reaching his total from last season, and he is on pace for only 117 strikeouts and 75 walks.  Both would be among the worst marks in his career.

While this may just be a bump in the road for Lowe, it is also possible that his age is starting to catch up with him.  The 13 year veteran turned 36 in June, and is experiencing his worst season in 5 years.

I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he turns it around and finishes with an ERA around 3.70.  But at some point, his body is going to break down, and the Braves will be on the hook for his heavy contract.

I, for one, am glad that the Mets did not take this gamble.

Seems like a good idea, although I’d prefer for the extra spot to be used on a catcher so that Omir Santos can make the squad.

Milledge has been hurt for most of this season, after posting an impressive line of 14 homers and 24 steals in 2008. Morgan, a rookie, had two homers and 27 RBI, along with 18 steals, for the Bucs.

Wow, how Milledge’s stock has fallen. He went from being the key piece in rumored deals for Manny Ramirez and Roy Oswalt, to being dealt for a speedster with limited offensive upside.

I still believe that at the time when Milledge was dealt for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider, that if Minaya was patient he could have netted more from another team, but it is nice to see that the deal has not come back to bite us as I thought it would’ve…

For some unexplainable reason, Manuel batted Argenis Reyes in the leadoff spot Monday against the Brewers. Generally, a leadoff hitter is one of your team’s best hitters; someone with the ability to get on base so that the “big boys” can knock him in.

Argenis Reyes is not this player. In 122 career at bats, Reyes’ batting average is .205 and his on base percentage is .242. Argenis has done nothing to prove that he is worthy of a major league at bat, yet he is leading off for a team with playoff aspirations. No amount of injuries can excuse this.

Since Jose Reyes went down with an injury, Jerry Manuel has had to mix and match to find the right guy to slot in at the top of the lineup. Most of the time, Manuel had Alex Cora (.315 career OBP) batting leadoff. Perhaps Manuel believes that since Cora and Argenis replaced Jose Reyes at short stop, it only makes sense that they should replace him as the leadoff hitter. Maybe he thinks that the team will find a comfort zone with a Reyes atop the lineup.

But what boggles the mind most is that Luis Castillo, who has been a more than serviceable leadoff hitter throughout his successful MLB career (.367 career OBP), has somehow moved down from #2 hitter to #8 hitter.

Can someone please explain this logic to me? Oh that’s right, Jerry Manuel doesn’t believe in logic.*

With all of the injuries the Mets have experienced, Luis Castillo is now one of the top 4 hitters in the lineup. My good friend Common Sense suggests that Castillo should remain the #2 hitter or be moved to leadoff when Jose Reyes got hurt. But instead, Manuel has decided to bury him at the bottom of the lineup, where his walks and singles do little more than clear the pitcher so that Argenis Reyes can lead off the next inning with a ground out.

If you are going into game 1 of a playoff series and your #1 starting pitcher is injured, you would pitch your #2 starter, right? Well I can only imagine that Jerry Manuel would pitch a minor leaguer or a long reliever in game 1 and have the #2 starter pitch out of the bullpen.

*For reference, see Friday’s Subway Series game, when Manuel pinch hit Argenis Reyes as the tying run in the biggest spot of the game instead of Daniel Murphy, who is a .308 hitter against lefties (albeit in only 39 career at bats, but Reyes is a career .160 hitter in 25 career at bats against lefties). Of course, Argenis struck out.

Greetings! Hey, broski!

You have by no means had a poor year.  Going into last night you were batting .342. That’s pretty gosh darn good.  Your .919 OPS isn’t too shabby either. 

My real question is: where has your power gone?  Are you aware that you currently have the lowest slugging percentage you’ve had in your entire Major League career?

Seriously, if the Mets wanted a player with mediocre power and a good batting average, Omar Minaya would call call the Pirates and demand for Freddy Sanchez.   

Perhaps Citi Field has had an effect on you – you do have a noticeable difference between your home and road splits.  Your batting average, slugging percentage and on base percentage are all higher on the road.  Still, you have one home run on the road this year.  That’s only one more home run than I have on the road this year, and you have 130 more at-bats than I do. 

Can Citi really be that intimidating though? C’mon broham it’s a baseball field.  Maybe the fence is a few feet deeper and higher in a couple places, but that doesn’t account for such a dramatic drop off in production.  Maybe you’ve changed your swing some to adjust to the new surroundings, but whatever you’ve changed isn’t good.  The team can deal with your power outages when Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran are in the lineup, but certainly not now.

Beyond the power,  your head doesn’t appear to be in the right place.  You have to understand, that other than you – and Gary Sheffield when he’s able to play – the Mets’ lineup would be on the bench for most major league teams.  Knowing this, you’ve still been unbelievably passive at the dish.  When there are guys on first and second with one out, why do you take strike three so often? Are you looking for the walk? Even if you walk, it would be spoiled by Fernando ”GIDP” Tatis. 

I swear, I want to slap you every time you take strike three, which happens all too often.  When you’re batting third or fourth, you are being paid to hit the ball, not to leave the bat on your shoulder.  If you’re gonna strike out, at least go down taking a huge whack at the ball, not watching it sail into the catchers glove and then staring at the ground with that dejected look Mets fans have become way too accustomed to this year.  

Don’t confuse this with hate mail, or hate e-mail, or hate whatever you want to call it.  In fact, it is truly the opposite; I probably care too much about watching you live up to your potential and play how you should and can.

Sincerely,

Andrew Beaton

Here are the pitching matchup:

Game 1: Fernando Nieve (3-0 1.31) vs Braden Looper (5-4 5.16)

Game 2: Johan Santana (9-5 3.08) vs Mike Burns (0-1 3.72)

Game 2: Mike Pelfrey (5-3 4.67) vs Yovani Gallardo (8-4 2.86)

• I believe the Mets have the clear advantage in the first two games, but face an uphill battle in the third game against Gallardo, who threw six shutout innings against the Mets earlier this year.

The two headed monster of RyanPrince FielderBraun has combined for 35 homers and 126 RBI on the season. It is only June 29th but both the Brewers young sluggers are off to great starts this year.

The Brewers lost their young 2B Rickie Weeks in May, but the Brewers haven’t lost much. Casey McGehee is hitting .336 in 107 ABs this year while filling in for Weeks, with four homers and 17 RBI.

The Brewers closer, Trevor Hoffman, has had an outstanding year closing games. He has a 1.99 ERA  and 17 saves.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Chorizo will win the sausage race tonight, but the Brat will take the victory tomorrow and Wednesday.

Let’s go Mets!

After seeing Tatis hit .392 with runners on base last year and .357 with RISP, his 2009 numbers are extremely disappointing. Tatis is hitting only .195 with runners on base this year, and .188 with RISP.

Tatis has also been  a double play machine this year. He has grounded into a team high 10 DPs. He continually rolls over balls on the outside part of the plate and refuses to go the other way, something he did so well last year.

Keith Hernandez pointed out on an earlier broadcast that Tatis’ swing from last year is different from this year’s. Maybe Keith can give Fernando some pointers  and help Tatis get the bat through the hitting zone faster. Tatis’ separated shoulder from last year could also be pointed to for his struggles, but no one really knows.

At this point I’d rather see Nick Evans out there as he certainly has more pop than Fernando these days, but unfortunately if a guy makes an error he gets benched for the next three days. Sorry, Nick. Have to play a perfect 1B!

Here’s to hoping Tatis gets it going soon, because if he doesn’t Omar might be forced to demote him in favor of a better hitter.

For a defensive wiz at short stop or second base, a .362 slugging percentage is acceptable.  But first basemen traditionally hit for a lot of power; the average NL first baseman has a .482 slugging percentage and an .850 OPS (on base plus slugging).  For the Mets starting first baseman to have a .362 slugging percentage and .676 OPS is laughable (for those who find humor in misery). 

Last week, I believe I said something along the lines of…

…I started to think “why just tread water?”  All we’ve been hearing from the media was how the Mets had to survive and keep above water until some of the missing key players came back, but that’s not how I feel.  This is a golden opportunity for guys like Daniel Murphy, Fernando Martinez, and Nick Evans to show us what they’re made of, while David Wright has a chance to establish himself as the true leader of this team.

So naturally, the Mets decided not to show up to the three games following this post.

If I could, I’d invent a time machine, go back to the day I wrote that, and throw my computer out the window before I got a chance to put that thought out there.

What was I thinking?

As soon as I’m done with this post, I’m going to crawl into the Dog House.  The Phillies have been playing like garbage for awhile now, and all the Mets have to show for it is a 2.5 game deficit in the division.  Why?  Because of a lack of consistent offense, and because of a lack of fundamental fielding and baserunning.

Oh, and Francisco Rodriguez walked Mariano Rivera last night.  No, you’re not on acid, readers.  That really happened. “Mo,” as I understand he’s called, got as many RBI in that one at-bat as any one Met over the entire weekend series.  That is not a joke, even if it feels like one.

In the post I wrote last week, I said that a bumpy next couple of weeks might actually be a little fun because of grit, or something.  I’ve tried to repress memories of those thoughts.  Well, all “grit” brought the team over the weekend was 9 hits and 3 runs, and a bunch of mental and physical errors. Daniel Murphy, Argenis Reyes (someone teach him to bunt towards 1st base), and even Alex Cora were part of the festivities last night, and the former’s mistakes contributed to be the difference in the game.  The only thing that came close to being worse than watching this junk was hearing Steve Phillips say that Livan Hernandez was a baseball player on ESPN.  Thanks for the insight, Steve.

The Mets were exposed by the Yankees as a minor league team who cannot, as constituted, compete with the Phillies if they even comes close to getting it together.  Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado are not close to coming back, and I don’t know how much longer I can possibly take watching Fernando Tatis.  And here I was thinking that this was somehow going to be fun.

I was wrong.

So what do the Mets do now?  Do they fire Jerry Manuel?  Would that all of a sudden make everybody stop committing errors on the field?  Do they make a trade for Adam Dunn?  Does he turn around a completely depleted offense with a home run every couple of games while playing poor defense himself?  Does Omar Minaya make a splash and kill whatever’s left of the farm system?  That’s assuming they have the valuable chips to even do so.  The Mets are more than a bat away from being a good team, and for once, I’m at a loss.  I can only hope that the only reason I’m at a loss is because this is an extended overreaction to losing to the crosstown rivals and having to hear the smug tone of Yankee fans.

A bumpy ride?  Right now, I’d pray for a bumpy ride.  It’s starting to look more like the Mets might end up in a free fall pretty soon.

I, for going out on a limb and saying that a hungry team might show some grit and stay competitive instead of bring their pillows out there over the weekend and go to sleep, am the Dog House Dweller of the Week.

Ugh.

Over 3 starts against the Yankees, Cardinals, and Rays, and 4 appearances overall, Fernando Nieve has pitched to a 1.31 ERA with a BAA of .153.  In his last start, on June 24th, he pitched 6 strong innings with 5 strikeouts (although with 4 walks, but no harm, no foul) and 0 runs.

What really drives this home for me is that although the Mets have been befallen with countless injuries, they’ve gotten unexpected performances out of Livan Hernandez and Nieve, who was given up on by the Houston Astros, which usually raises about 7,000 red flags.  This is one pick-up which made GM Omar Minaya look like a genius during a season when he’s been perceived as pretty lazy, so I’m sure he’s thanking his lucky stars that Nieve is here as well.

John Maine and Oliver Perez both went down, and Met fans got pretty nervous, so Nieve coming in does two things.

1. He helped hold down the fort in a rotation which has a struggling Mike Pelfrey and two missing starters, and
2. He’s created a good kind of problem.  When Maine and Perez comes back, he’s made it very difficult to do anything but leave him in the rotation.

Granted, the solution to problem 2 is pretty simple, as has been pointed out by fellow footer Andrew Beaton, albeit under different, Nelson Figueroa-related circumstances.  Once the rotation is a little healthier, it makes much more sense to put Tim Redding into the bullpen until Nieve proves that he doesn’t deserve to start.

Fernando Nieve.  Man-Crush of the Week.

Tim Redding is by no definition of the word passable, a passable starter for a contending team. 

In his eight starts this season, he has had only three quality starts.  That means, if you don’t have your TI-83 in front of you at home, five of his starts have been un-quality.  What is even worse is how he is not only bad, but he fails to go deep into games.  In half of his starts he has failed to finish the sixth inning.  Forcing the bullpen to pitch 3+ innings to win a game screams disaster.   

There is no one statistic that can justify his poor performance and suggest that change is coming – he has just been bad.  Perhaps, Redding would be better suited for the bullpen; after all the Mets could use a long reliever.  In fact, Redding seems like he would succeed in this role: his biggest troubles come when is pitch count rises.  Between pitches 76-100, batters have been hitting .368 off of Redding with a whopping 1.125 OPS.  Ouch.  Pitches 1-25 batters are hitting .225 with a .635 OPS. 

Nelson Figueroa is the logical replacement for Redding.  Figgy, while no All-Star, can’t be as dreadfully abysmal as Redding has been.  Some people have said that it is unfair to keep on calling up Figueroa and then designating him for assignment, as in the reason he refused his assignment last time.  Well, if the Mets aren’t going to use Figgy when two starters are on the DL, when are they going to ever need him? Plus, he is an employee of the New York Mets; they pay him to do his job, and that’s part of his job. 

For the Mets to tread water at this point, they can’t have starters throw away games.  Redding does exactly that, and this is why the Mets can no longer afford to put him out there every fifth day.

• Encouraging start for Oliver Perez last night for the Brooklyn Cyclones.  In five innings, he struck out six, allowed only two hits and walked one batter.  The most encouraging factor in this outing is the one walk – in single A, anybody should be able to strike the batters out and prevent the hitters from getting hits.  But, a walk at single A is the same thing as a walk at the big show; the strike zone doesn’t change.  Walks are what plagued Perez prior to his trip to the DL, so if he can limit those, then he should find success.
• Wait, did I say the Brooklyn Cyclones? I totally meant the Baracklyn Cyclones!
• Fernando “GIDP” Tatis should not start.  Not only has he been poor at the plate, he is dreadful in the field.  His arm makes Johnny Damon’s arm look like Raul Mondesi’s.  Perhaps Tatis is dealing with issues from  his separated shoulder from last year.  
• Over Tatis, I would rather have all of Fernando Martinez, Jeremy Reed or Nick Evans out there.  Maybe they should give a shot (or another shot) to Cory Sullivan, Emil Brown or Jesus Feliciano.
• Baseball is a funny game: Nick Evans just barely missed making the major league team out of spring training, batted .093 in triple-A and comes up hitting well in the Majors. 
• Mark Teahen is a perfect fit for the Mets. 
• When Gary Sheffield plays against the Yankees, he puts a little something extra into his swing. 
• F-Mart has been on the big league club but has not been starting consistently: possible power struggle between Omar and Jerry?

Perez,  regarded as the closer of the future for the Cardinals, had a 4.18 ERA and a 1.35 ERA for the Cards in 2009.

DeRosa, a super utility man who has played for the Braves and Cubs during his career, was batting .270 with 13 homers and 50 RBI for the Tribe.

OK. I’m just going to say it. Omar will, and SHOULD take some serious heat for missing out on DeRosa. Chris Perez? He is that relief pitcher we touched up for two runs in no innings on Wednesday. Omar certainly missed the boat on this one. Very, very depressing.

Tomorrow, we face Chien Ming Wang, then in Milwaukee I believe we face Mike Burns, our old pal Braden Looper and Dave Bush. These guys are no Sabathia, nor are they as talented as Burnett. If the Met bats come up empty against mediocre arms like that in the next few days, then I will be alarmed, but for tonight let’s just take the last two nights for what they were: masterfully pitched games.

1) When any member of the Mets medical staff or front office says a player  “can’t get any worse by playing,” what he actually means is “Not only will said player get worse, but …ummm…no no that’s it he will get worse, or at the very best,  play on and be completely useless”

2) When Jerry Manuel says he will go with the hot bat, due to injury’s, what he actually means is this: “I will go with whomever is hot and gangsta, unless a lefty gets hot and we face a lefty the next day, sorry Murph and Church, not you Jeremy Reed you’re never hot, nor are you gangsta. Oh and of course my boy Fernando Tatis will play through anything as he once hit 2 grand slams in one inning – that stuff was beyond gangsta, hold on  some stat guy just gave me this – Apparently Tatis is hitting 227 in May, 255 in June and has an overall  689 OPS – but that stat nerd must not have seen those gangsta salamis! Gangsta! (I hate it that the Mets coach uses the term Gangsta, sorry, but imagine Obama started using this term- terrifying)

3) When discussing the Mets current strengths with fellow writer Rob Harding we concluded that it was the in fact the DL, the DL is the Mets strength….that is not a good thing.

4) Razor Shines is just a ridiculous name…ABOSLUTELY RIDICULOUS…I still believe that my high school Home Ec teacher  (Miss Wexler) could have done a better job then Sandy Alomar and Shines was proving me right until the other night when he  actually waved Luis Castillo in from third base while standing in the basepath.  

5) Most prospects are just that, prospective stars, most stay that way. The key is keeping the Wright’s of the world and dumping the Escobars, Ochoas and Humbers….but you know this. Of course three weeks ago we all knew that Parnell was untouchable…yikes, sometimes you have to sell high. Tell me some of you aren’t thinking Evans may actually be a 25 80 guy now? 

6) Alex Cora is a great backup…but if I have to here the word “winner” ever again I will cut someone. Winning teams have players with great OBP’s, OPS, Slugging and even VORP. Call me a nerd but stats actually matter in baseball, personality? Not so much. I love Cora, but the Mets need their all stars back immediately.

7) That said,  Jose Reyes is not coming back any time soon. He is a player who NEEDS his legs.  When the Mets sniffed a leg injury he should have been on the DL that very moment. A tear in the hamstring is an 8 week injury for most (see Phil Hughes last year), but for a guy like Reyes, who needs his legs, it should be longer….PLEASE LET IT BE LONGER, we need him healthy for years to come.

8) Why does Dan Warthen look like a better fit for the three stooges then a baseball coach? Do you think he has any idea who Elmer Dessens is?

9) Citifield is gorgeous, but wwwwwwwaaaaaayyyyy to big. So there’s a banbox in the Bronx and a cavernous desert where baseballs go to die horrible, lonely deaths  in Queens. Any time a guy, who hits 30 homeruns a year, has to change his approach because a park is to big you have a problem.

10) If you could trade all 25 Mets for any 10 in the league would you do it? I would make a case for Lincecum, Joe Mauer, Longoria, Hanley, Kinsler, Kemp, Cain, Volquez, Adam Jones. I’m going with youth, so when I draft these guys will all be in their primes….it’s just fun, give it a shot,  don’t read into it too much.

OK so some of these aren’t things you have to know, but all in all I hope they may make your viewing expereince more pleasurable. Hell, listening to Jon Tesh while watching two girls with one cup would be better then last nights second inning, right?. To crass?

At this point, you can’t count on anything from Maine from this point forward. I hate to say this, but Maine’s shoulder looks like it could be a lingering issue for years. This news should allow Fernando Nieve to stay in the rotation through the all star break, as well as Tim Redding.

With this news, it also makes the recovery of Oliver Perez that much more important. I’m loving this Nieve story, but there is a reason he was on waivers. Tim Redding has been better of late, but he’s also better suited for the bullpen. Get it straightened out Ollie, we’re going to need you in the second half…