One of the primary trade deadline rumors surrounding the Mets is the question of whether or not they will make a move for a starting outfielder to replace the likes of Endy Chavez and Fernando Tatis having to play everyday.  Sure, the Mets missed out on Xavier Nady and plenty of fans are disappointed that the Mets failed to acquire him.  But in all reality people making Nady out to be super-stud that he’s not, because somehow this year he has managed to bat .43 points above his career average. 

There are some bigger names out there like Manny Ramirez and Matt Holiday, both of whom are amazing but to acquire them we would have to unload what’s left in our already ransacked minor league system.  I like Adam Dunn, but he’s not worth what the Reds are probably asking for him.  Randy Winn’s name has been involved in a trade rumor to the Mets more than once. 

Winn is a career .285 hitter with below average power and slightly above average speed.  However, he’s being paid $8 million this year, most of which the Mets would likely have to cover in a trade.  In addition to that, he’s under contract for next season at $8.25 million.  I don’t know about you, but this off season I think $8.25 million could be used much more productively. 

The notion of trading for Randy Winn isn’t terrible at first glance - he’s an adequate starter that would fit decently into the Mets lineup.  Yet, when the peripherals are examined like his contract the idea becomes more and more nonsensical.  Trading for him and his inflated contract becomes even more questionable when Kenny Lofton is sitting at home waiting for a phone call from a team. 

Lofton is a career .299 hitter and plays a similar style of baseball to Winn.  He’s not a power hitter, but on average he’ll hit you about 10 HRs in a season.  He’s definitely as good of a base stealer as Winn, if not better.  To sign Lofton, it will likely only cost a few million dollars and a guarantee of playing time on a contender - all of which the Mets can offer.  For other players like Winn it will cost us more money and a prospect or two - all of which for a player comparable and possible worse than Lofton. 

It would be silly for the Mets to get caught up in the trade deadline market where everyday teams are driving up the price on each other for players that are average to mediocre.  It is made especially silly by the fact that there is a quality player (Kenny Lofton) sitting at home waiting for a call from a team like the Mets. 

As was reported yesterday here at Hot Foot by Rob Harding, the Yankees acquired OF Xavier Nady and LHP Damaso Marte from the Pirates in exchange for four prospects, headlined by OF Jose Tabata.

Newsday said the move filled two of the Yankees’ three immediate needs to address for the trade deadline: a right-handed outfielder and a left-handed reliever. The other need is a starting pitcher, and there continues to be buzz about Seattle’s Jarrod Washburn, said Buster Olney on the trade reaction video on ESPN.com.

The immediate reaction from fans and commentators, myself included, is that the Yankees fleeced another team, considering the Pirates dealt away two of their big trading chips and didn’t get back headliners like Ian Kennedy or Austin Jackson.

But this trade needs perspective. Sure, to the Pirates, losing Nady and Marte is a key loss to the team’s 2008 season, but that’s because it’s the Pirates. Notice how Nady is one of the big hitters in the Pirates lineup, whereas in the Yankees mighty order, Nady fits somewhere toward the bottom. On other, more successful teams, Nady and Marte aren’t as valued. It doesn’t make sense to think the Yankees value these guys as much as the Pirates.

It was obvious to teams all around baseball that the Pirates were using this trade deadline to sell high on a few players. Over his career, Marte has mostly posted end-of-year numbers around a 3.50 ERA, which earns him the description of a “good reliever.” In a market with closers talked of like Huston Street and George Sherrill, the Pirates can’t expect Marte to be valued as the No. 1 reliever on the market. Is this fair? Absolutely not, especially since Marte may be having a better season than both Street and Sherrill, but it pays to have the flashy title of “closer.”

Cost and contract length also have to play a factor. Through arbitration, Street and Sherrill are playing for less than Marte this season, and they can be maintained for longer than Marte. For the Yankees, Marte is actually a rental, with only a half year on his contract left. There’s a $6 million option for 2009, which is a mildly expensive price for a non-closer. Obviously, the Yankees can handle it, but it may have dissuaded other suitors. $6 million is more than LaTroy Hawkins and Kyle Farnsworth are making in 2008.

As for Nady, a knowledgable GM cannot be naive enough to simply use tunnel-vision and only focus on the 29-year-old Nady of 2008, assuming this is what the future for the player holds. He does have a .330 batting average, specifically a .335 batting average against righties, which is gold to a Yankees team with a right-handed outfielder as an imperative need. He’s still batting .313 against lefties, too, and curiously enough, his OBP is actually way higher against lefties (.434 vs lefties and .368 vs righties). Nady’s 2008 has been sparkling.

However, as a 29-year-old, his 2008 provides career highs across the board. This is a guy who has never finished a year with a batting average above .300 or even an OBP above .350. He notched his first year with at least 20 HRs in 2007 (with a modest 20) and has never even come close to racking up 100 RBIs until this season. It would be surprising if Nady continues his torrid pace for more career years. And like Marte, Nady isn’t locked up by any means, approaching the end of his arbitration years.

So the value of Marte and Nady was skewed by their prominence among the Pirates organization and their early asking prices for the players. Even so, the Pirates still got a decent haul. Baseball America ranked Tabata as the Yankees’ No. 3 prospect for 2008, and Ross Ohlendorf as the Yankees’ No. 9 prospect. Tabata may be struggling, but he’s still very young and has upside.

At Bucs Dugout, Charlie, who ultimately approved the deal, had this to say on Tabata and George Kontos:

Tabata has had a rough year at AA, but he’s still 19 for another month. He has hit well in the past and has all kinds of time to make himself into a good big-league outfielder. Kontos looks like a bona fide starting pitching prospect, with a good fastball, a passable change, an excellent slider and a pitcher’s build. He turned 23 last month.

If Tabata and Kontos come the Pirates’ way, they’d immediately become the second and third-best prospects in the system, behind Andrew McCutchen. Pedro Alvarez, if/when he signs, would obviously bump them down a notch, too.

EDIT: At the time of writing, I wasn’t aware that the deal had changed, and it is even possible that the deal actually changed while I was writing this morning. MLB.com reports that it is now RHP Jeff Karstens and RHP Daniel McCutchen to the Pirates instead of Kontos and Phil Coke. The original points stand.

Pirates OF Xavier Nady was pulled from tonight’s game against the Padres. Rotoworld is reporting that LHP Damaso Marte could be involved as well.Regarding a possible deal, WPGB’s Rocco Demaro states..

“The Rays, Yankees, Mets and Braves were among the teams interested in Nady, with Tampa Bay supposedly the strongest suitor. For what it’s worth, Rays shortstop prospect Reid Brignac is not starting for Triple-A Durham tonight. He’s someone the Pirates would likely ask for in a Nady deal.”

Interesting, Nady would fill the the OF spot that Eric Hinske currently owns in the Rays lineup. Cross out fingers that we got him…

UPDATE 7:58: The Yankees have traded for OF Xavier Nady and LHP Damaso Marte. No word on who the Bucs got yet. OF Prospects Jose Tabata and Austin Jackson could be a part of the package heading to the Pirates..

Fox Sports Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Pirates will receive RHP Ross Ohlendorf, Phil Coke and George Kontos, and OF Jose Tabata

All I must say is robbery. The best prospect the Pirates got is Tabata and he is having a dreadful, dreadful year in AA. Bravo to Cashman and Co., they really did well here.

The Mets should make every attempt to acquire Xavier Nady before the trading deadline this year. The case I make does not just effect the Mets in 2008, but as well as the future.

A. He is hitting .322 with 15 home runs and 55 RBIs. Acquiring him and slotting him in near the middle of the order would instantly make the lineup better, not to mention will give you a stable man in one of the corner outfield spots, which has been a rare instance so far this season between both Moises Alou and Ryan Church’s injuries.

B. When and if both Alou and Church ever are simultaneously healthy, the Mets could experiment with using Nady against lefties at first base, while giving Carlos Delgado a break. In 99 at-bats against left handed hitters, Delgado is hitting .212 with 3 home runs and 11 runs batted in. Nady is hitting .318 with 4 home runs and 13 RBIs in 66 at-bats against lefties.

C. One of Nady’s biggest downfalls during his time with the Mets was his inability to hit right-handed pitchers. In 2006, he finished with a .263 average against right-handers, but has been absolutely crushing them this year, hitting .323 with 8 home runs and 42 RBIs.

D. Lastly, looking even further, Nady will provide insurance for the Mets to be their starting first baseman in 2009, if the Mets choose not to pursue or end up losing in a bidding war for impending free agent Mark Teixeira.

All in all, it makes a ton of sense for the Mets to go out and bring back the X-Man to the orange and blue.

According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, as expected, the market is thick for Nady. The article notes that the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves are both in the market for a corner outfielder. The article also includes the Mets on there as well, but notes that they could potentially be a poor match because of a “dearth of prospects.”

I believe the Mets should undoubtedly attempt to send Aaron Heilman to Pittsburgh if the opportunity presents itself. Whether or not the Pirates are that interested in him is unclear, but they would have control of him through the next two seasons. What other players the Mets would have to give up to bring Nady back remains to be seen. If they can find a reasonable deal for the 29-year old righty, it’s a no brainer.

It appears that the Mets are willing to take my advice and do what needs to be done, shake up their roster.

They’ve already gone ahead and given some of the underperforming comfortable vets notice by benching their main offender in Carlos Delgado, and shown that if they can get production from others, they’re more than willing to give them the opportunity (see Fernando Tatis, Endy Chavez)

“In The Know” Dan Graziano (copyright Matthew Cerrone, of Mets Blog) writes at the Star Ledger that the Mets are now looking to take it a step further and have already begun investigating some deals to bring in fresh blood. According to Graziano, based on information from officials with three major-league teams, the Mets are making inquiries into a number of players such as Kevin Millar, Jason Bay and Xavier Nady.

Graziano cites the 2004 Boston Red Sox as an example of a team that floundered until a radical July makeover that included trading Nomar Garciaparra to the Cubs gave them a shot in the arm that led them to their first World Championship in 86 years.

You’re welcome, guys. Anytime you need a little help, I’m here for ya.

With Moises Alou likely out for at least the first month of the season, it remains somewhat of an open question who’ll be filling Mo’s shoes and playing left field for the Mets to kick off 2008. Here’s my take on some of the names that have been tossed around. I’ll give you the perspective both as a stats guy, and purely as a fan.

Barry Bonds

Stats guy says: Fantastic! This guy has a career OPS of 1.051, and his OPS last year was even higher! That shouldn’t really even be possible. We can play him in left for a few weeks, spelling him in the late innings and in day games with Endy Chavez, and it will be even better than if Alou were healthy. Come to think of it, why don’t we just sign this hitting machine to be our left fielder for the entire season?

Fan says: Barry Bonds? Are you kidding me? You want me to root for Barry F’ing Bonds? This guy is not only a cheater, he desecrated one of the most sacred records in all of sports and did it with a smile on his face. Plus, haven’t you noticed he’s just a tad on the surly side? I was booing this guy back when he had a normal-sized head. And now I’m supposed to root for him? I want a world championship as much as the next guy, but I seem to remember renouncing Satan somewhere along the way. Also, we’re not seriously thinking of replacing Moises Alou with a guy older than Moises Alou, right?

Endy Chavez

Stats guy says: Meh. His career OPS is under 700, and even during his renaissance of the last three years it’s 720. Sure, he’s a great glove and a good baserunner—an excellent choice for a fourth outfielder. But Chavez doesn’t have the bat to be an everyday player.

Fan says: How can you not love Endy Chavez? Don’t we all remember that catch he made? When Scott Rolen’s ball was heading towards the wall, even though we all knew it had the distance, we somehow all believed that Endy would make that catch. It’s not just that, though—he won a game with a drag bunt last year, and he hit a homer against the Yankees, and he made about a million other awesome catches that weren’t quite as well remembered as that other one. Yes, let’s make Endy Chavez the left fielder. That will have me smiling every day.

Kenny Lofton

Stats guy says: He did a very serviceable job in the AL last year, compiling a 781 OPS and 23 stolen bases to go with only 7 CS. He’s a lefty, though, which would mean we’d likely have a lineup that goes SSRSLLLLP (S = switch, P = pitcher), if you care about such things. Still, he’d be a fine fit for a month, in my opinion.

Fan says: You really want to replace Moises Alou with a guy who’s almost as old as Moises Alou?

Xavier Nady

Stats guy says: Well, at least we know he can hit left-handed pitching—to the tune of an 881 OPS over the last three seasons. He would give us the lineup balance we’ll be missing in Alou’s absence. But it’s not as though we can just go out there and grab Xavier Nady. The Pirates are now run by someone intelligent, and why would he hand over Nady without us giving him something of actual value in return? And since we’re not looking to give up any value, we’re just looking to plug a hole for a month, we probably shouldn’t be trading for Xavier Nady.

Fan says: I love Nady! Remember when he was here and he hit the hell out of everything? (Stats guy interrupts: actually, his numbers last year were basically the same as his numbers with us.) And the only reason we ever traded him in the first place was because Duaner Sanchez got in a car accident. And remember when Nady had that appendicitis? We all felt bad for him then. We should do whatever it takes to get Nady back. I miss him.

You can imagine that overall I’m a little conflicted about the whole left field situation. I’d probably be in favor of just living with Endy and the rest of the bench for a month. What I’m really in favor of is getting Alou healthy as soon as possible.

Mets Refugees posts a great rundown of possible options to replace Moises Alou in left field while he recovers from hernia surgery.

Among the players examined by Dan at Mets Refugees is Endy Chavez, Angel Pagan, Brady Clark, Kenny Lofton, Reggie Sanders, and Xavier Nady.

Shawn Green and Barry Bonds are not happening, but I can see the Mets maybe picking up Lofton. I like Nady but I think the Pirates want more than the Mets are willing to give, otherwise someone would have made a deal for him in the offseason.

Here’s a rundown of Hot Stove news this morning…

Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette is reporting that the Pittsburgh Pirates could look to trade former Mets outfielder Xavier Nady during the winter meetings. If the team cannot find a taker for Nady, they are considering non-tendering him before the Dec. 12 deadline to offer salary arbitration. That would allow him to become a free agent.

Nady, 29, hit .278 with 20 HRs and 78 RBIs for the Pirates last season playing the majority of time in right field. In 94 games in right field, Nady didn’t commit a single error and made four assists from the position. Nady’s lone error in the outfield came when he was forced to play centerfield due to an injury from another player.

The only scenario that could envision him returning to the Mets at all is a platoon in right field with Ryan Church. Nady is a career .320 hitter against lefties in 465 at-bats. Church is a career .275 hitter against right-handed hitters, compared to his .254 average against lefties. If there is any chance that he returns to Flushing, it would likely be as the starting RF against left-handed pitchers. The Padres are also reportedly in bringing him back to San Diego.

From Daily News.com…

I was upset by two things yesterday. News that Duaner Sanchez was potentially lost for the season in a freak taxi accident (what is it with Mets and taxis? can we get these guys an armored truck for transportation?) and losing a favorite player of mine in Xavier Nady. However, my rational side reminds me that Endy Chavez is a vast improvement over Nady defensively and combined with Lastings Milledge, the Mets likely will not lose much offensively without Nady. To top it off, the Mets add a proven set up man in Roberto Hernandez who arguably was the Mets MVP in 2005. Bert compiled a 2.60 ERA last season and currently holds a 2.90 ERA.

Duaner Sanchez was outstanding in the first half of the season but was more human as the midterm neared. If he is able to return for the playoffs, the Mets will have a ridiculously deep bullpen to ride them through October. If he isnt, they still have a solid set up in Bert.

I will miss seeing X as part of this special season, his contributions will not be forgotten. However I am excited to see the Lastings Milledge era begin again, hopefully with some lessons learned from his first time around.

Here's what some of our favorite bloggers are talking about today…

Amazin' Avenue is excited to have Oliver Perez in the organization.

Deadspin wants to let you know, Derek Jeter would like you to smell him.

Jessica @ Chicks Dig The Pitchers Duel thinks the Mets turned lemons into lemonade.

Jeremy gives his assessment of the trade deadline action on Mets Geek.

Mets Walkoffs takes us back to 1969, when the Mets had their own shoulder woes to endure.

Metstradamus wants to rally fans to join MADD, Mets fans Against Drunk Drivers.

Faith and Fear In Flushing trusts in Omar.

The Metropolitans thinks Omar did the best thing he could do, given the circumstances.

Toasted Joe asks “You talkin to me?…….you talkin to me?”

Crosstown Rivals does not like the Nady deal and tells us why.

…and Archie Bunker's Army discusses the all important “butterfly effect”

Omar Minaya denying reports of Oliver Perez for Scott Linebrink.

Omar Minaya asked to comment on if a deal will happen and Omar said no comment.

Asked his thoughts on Scott Linebrink and he said he can't comment on other players.

Duaner Sanchez not done for the year as of yet, could be back in 4 to 6 weeks.

Check out the video here.

Xavier Nady was just traded for Roberto Hernandez and Oliver Perez.

Lastings Milledge will likely be promoted to fill Nady's slot in right field.

Rotoworld gives their take…

Buc's Dugout chimes in…

If this is the whole deal, this is awful. Perez was probably a lost
cause, but only probably. There's still some chance he could be ironed
out. Nady is already 27 and has never been an especially good hitter.
There isn't very much upside for the Bucs here - Nady is only a little
bit better than the Ty Wigginton/Daryle Ward class of Pirates we always complain about, and the Bucs gave up quite a bit to get him.

Nady is basically Craig Wilson
lite. He doesn't have a position, he's not a great runner, his hitting
is not as good as Wilson's, and he's only two years younger than
Wilson. Why you'd trade a 24-year-old pitcher (however damaged) with an
All-Star caliber season under his belt, plus a valuable reliever, to a team that abruptly lost its setup man (Duaner Sanchez), to get Nady is beyond me. The Bucs already have Craig Wilson and they won't even play him.