The Kansas City Star reports former Mets prospect now in the Kansas City Royals organization, Justin Huber will most likely be placed on waivers since he is out of options.

Huber who is now 25 years old, can play catcher or 1st base. He hit 18 homeruns in AAA last year and has a career .278 average in AAA.

Hot Foot is looking for writers to cover the following…

• National League beat.
• Minor Leagues
• Spring Training
• Gameday Previews and Recaps
• Around the Blogosphere

Please email me if you are interested. Hot Foot writers are paid a share of 50% of total revenue at Hot Foot.

Baseball Prospectus has once again made its painstakingly-considered PECOTA projections for the new baseball season. Happily, the Mets are projected to finish first in the NL East by ten games. Based on this projection, some might even consider us “the team to beat.” (Hah!)

Last year I made my own predictions for each hitter’s OPS and each pitcher’s ERA and tracked my progress against BP’s throughout the season. In the end, BP came closer on nine of the 16 players for which I made my guesses, but at least I put up a respectable fight.

While we’re at it, let’s look at some other things I said in columns at various points last year.

“I expect us to be in the top three (in the NL) in runs allowed.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG. Six freakin’ teams (the Padres, Cubs, Giants, Dodgers, DBacks, and Braves) all alowed fewer runs than we did.

“I expect to be in the top three (in the NL) in runs scored.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG. We finished fourth behind the Phillies, Rockies, and Braves. You could argue that we had a top-three offense and that the Phillies and Rockies were benefited by hitter’s parks, but I specifically predicted runs scored.

“I expect us to win a lot of games–more than 90.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG.

“I expect Mike Pelfrey to have a fantastic year.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG.

“I expect Lastings Milledge to play the bulk of the innings for us in rightfield.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG. Man, that one still hurts.

“I expect Paul Lo Duca to have a down year.” (March 13, 2007)
RIGHT. In poker, we say even a blind squirrel can sometimes find a nut.

“I expect Carlos Delgado, who quietly played hurt most of last season, to have a big year.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG.

“I expect Jose Valentin to fall off considerably.” (March 13, 2007)
RIGHT.

“I expect Jonathan Adkins to prove more valuable than anyone thinks he will be.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG. Boy, why did I ever think that Omar Minaya might’ve traded Heath Bell and Royce Ring for somebody halfway decent?

On projecting Jose Reyes - “This is one where I’m quite confident I’m going to beat the staff of Baseball Prospectus.” (April 23, 2007)
WRONG. As we all know, Jose got off to a torrid start, only to be mired in a second-half slump that eventually dropped his season-long OPS to a mere 775. I had predicted 890. BP had predicted 766 (these guys are good).

“David Wright is not going to hit the 29 home runs that BP projected” (April 23, 2007)
WRONG. Hey, he hadn’t even hit one at the time I wrote that!

“I have a lot of confidence in Aaron Heilman, and predict that he will end the season with a lower ERA than he has now (3.07).” (May 10, 2007)
RIGHT. He ended with 3.03. Phew.

OK, so I was wrong about a lot of things Mets last year. The only good news is, if you look at the stuff everyone else was writing, I wasn’t the only one. So why, then, would I keep making predictions about stuff when it seems pretty clear I don’t know what I’m talking about? Answer: because it’s fun.

I’m not quite ready to make this year’s predictions just yet, but I do want to post some leanings I have about BP’s new numbers.

David Wright: OVER 21 SB. BP projects David to steal 13 fewer bases than last year, and I just don’t see it. He was successful on 87 percent of his attempts last year, and he’s still young. There’s no reason for him not to steal.

Moises Alou: UNDER 406 Plate Appearances. He didn’t have that many last year or the year before, and he turns 42 in July.

Ramon Castro: OVER 256 Plate Appearances. God willing.

Johan Santana: UNDER 2.94 ERA. I read about this guy somewhere. They said that in 16 career starts against NL teams, he has a 2.16 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. Also, apparently fewer than half of those games were played in Shea Stadium.

Oliver Perez: UNDER 4.22 ERA. He posted a 3.56 last year, though he gave up 20 unearned runs, which is never a good sign. Still, I see Ollie improving, not regressing, and would be very surprised if he doesn’t beat his 4.22 projection in 2008.

Scott Schoeneweis: OVER 4.05 ERA. I have no confidence that Willie Randolph will use him correctly (i.e., he’ll put him in against more than zero righties), and therefore predict doom for his ERA.

That’s all I’ve got for now. Fuller predictions coming soon. Enjoy spring training!

Ex Met catcher Paul Lo Duca has issued a statement apologizing for his exercising some poor judgment in regards to the whole steroids thing. The main gist of it, courtesy of the Nats website:

“I apologize to my family, all my fans and to the entire baseball community for [the] mistakes in judgment I made in the past and for the distractions that resulted”

Lo Duca was one of the many, many players on the Mitchell Report, with his damnation coming courtesy of copies of checks he made out to the King of Steroids, Radomski.

Lo Duca has not apologized however for starting a race war with Julio Franco, cheating on his hot hot wife, or no longer taking the steroids therefore leading to the Mets historic collapse.

According to an official release on the team website, the Mets have picked up a new catching instructor following a special Buy One Get One Free sale at the Alomar Coaching Store. Sandy Jr will replace Tom Nieto as the catching instructor, with Tom shifting over to first base to replace Rickey Henderson. Ricky meanwhile, presumable will spend his time talking in the third person and focusing on his blog.

This marks the first time in baseball history two Sandy Alomars have coached on the same team at the same time.

It’s just three short days until pitchers, catchers, and David Wright report to Port St. Lucie to start their work. What a glorious time to be alive! The expectations for the 2008 season might be higher than any I’ve experienced in my 24 spring trainings as a fan. This is a Mets team that is supposed to win the National League, and is supposed to have an excellent chance of taking the whole damn thing. Wow.Some might say that nothing short of a World Series win can be considered a success for this club. It’s true that a championship would be the ultimate accomplishment, and gratify us as fans for years to come. After all, none of the teams I root for, in any sport, has won a championship since 1986—and even if they had, I would trade any number of victories in the lesser sports for just one more New York Mets World Series championship. Having said all that, I disagree that nothing less than a championship will do. I tremendously enjoyed the 1999, 2000, and 2006 seasons. Sure they were bittersweet in the end, but they were great rides while they lasted.

How much better is it, then, to have not just a great ride, but a title to go with it? I mentioned in my last column that it’s hard to evaluate how good a trade is from a fan’s standpoint, because we don’t really have a metric for measuring fan gratification. Indeed, most of the analysis of the Johan Santana trade fell into two camps: “Yeah, we got Johan!” or “Boo, we spent way too much to get Johan.” In my view, neither camp has it quite right. The “Yeah!” camp overlooks the idea that it might be tougher for the Mets to compete in the future because of the Johan trade and signing. The “Boo!” camp overlooks the idea that Mets fans don’t care if we paid a little too much to get Johan, so long as we still have money to spend, and so long as Johan brings us a championship.

The fans mostly only care about what happens to the product on the field, not what it cost to put it there. To evaluate the Johan trade in terms of dollars doesn’t really make sense. It would make more sense to evaluate the trade in terms of what it brings to us, as fans. In an attempt to come up with a measure to accomplish this feat, I propose the following totally arbitrary point system for fan gratification:

World Series championship: 1,000 points
LCS win: 50 points
Divisional series win: 50
Division title: 100 points
Wild card playoff appearance: 50 points
Regular season win: 1 point

The championship is the mother lode, but getting to the playoffs is still far better than not, and winning a playoff series enhances a fan’s enjoyment that much more. The 1999 season is far more memorable to me because of Todd Pratt’s walk-off homer in the divisional round, and the 2000 season would sit far differently in my mind without John Franco’s strikeout of Barry Bonds, or Mike Hampton’s complete-game shutout against the Cardinals. Also, even if you don’t win a playoff series, getting to the playoffs as a division winner is better than getting in as a wild card. (The clinching celebrations in 1986, 1988, and 2006 seemed far more warranted than those of 1999 and 2000.) To fans, getting to the playoffs matters, how you get there matters, winning playoff series once you’re there matters, and winning world championships matters a lot.

Based on this system that I just made up, here are fan gratification point totals for some Mets seasons.

2007: 88 points
2006: 246
2005: 83
2003: 66
2000: 244
1986: 1,258
1969: 1,250

The two championships are each more than five times better than any other season in our history—as it should be. 2007’s dismal ending made it only about a third as gratifying as 2006, but still 33% more gratifying than 2003, when we won a mere 66 games. If we ever do win a World Series in the current playoff system, it will likely be more gratifying than the championships of 1986 and 1988 because of the extra playoff series involved. This seems right to me. It’s a lot tougher to win three playoff series than two. Also, even though we got to the World Series in 2000, that season scores about the same as 2006. The playoff run in 2000 was great, but so was the regular season/division title of 2006. The scores reflect this fact.

The system isn’t perfect; for example, Robin Ventura’s grand single is nowhere accounted for, and that ain’t right. But while it’s not perfect, and while I completely pulled these numbers out of…the sky, I like this system that I’ve invented. If someone could tell me accurately what our chances of winning a title, a division championship, a playoff series, or a playoff berth were before and after the Johan trade, and then do that for every season of Johan’s contract, I would feel comfortable applying my own system to form an opinion about the trade. Without that information, however, I think I might’ve just wasted some time playing around with numbers before the season starts. Oh well. I guess the point I was really driving at is this—let’s win the World Series this year, shall we?

Watching Johan Santana pull on the Mets uniform made me flashback to another great Met who wore #57- Eric Valent.

Why? I have no idea. Maybe it’s because on July 29, 2004 he hit for the cycle, or maybe it’s because nothing quite sums up the “Art Howe Era”, quite like Valent. He’s like the quintessential bad Met who was very easy to root for. Heck, the guy has his own fan site.

Alas, those days are gone, and as much as people want to dwell on the collapse look on the bright side, Eric Valent isn’t in the middle of our lineup.

Check out this video on Videolicious, which provides a really cool view of what its like to be up to bat against Johan Santana.

Hat tip to Zach L for the link.

Head on over to the Hot Foot Bleachers where your favorite regulars are already buzzing about today’s exciting news!

WFAN is reporting that the deal is done. The details have yet to be released. More to come…

added by MetsGal

ESPN is reporting the same thing. I think all the air was just sucked out of New York. Santana will have a physical tomorrow.

Update 6:49 p.m. - The details are sketchy at this point, but it is being reported that the deal is in the neighborhood of six-years, $150 million.

Update 7:07 p.m. - The NY Daily News is reporting that the deal is for seven-years and worth $150 million.

Update 12:01 a.m. - Marty Noble of MLB.com is now reporting that Santana will be under contract beginning this year and through 2013, and that an option exists for 2014 and that he will be guaranteed $137.5 million. The option includes a $5.5 million buyout.

ESPN Report…

I will be appearing live at Mickey Mantle’s restaurant tonight at 7:30PM EST as a guest on Gotham Radio to discuss the Super Bowl and the launch of Giants Football Blog.

To listen LIVE, click here.

To call in, dial (347) 324-3989.

Sid Rosenberg of WFAN, Mike Vaccaro of the New York Post, and Matthew Cerrone of Mets Blog will be appearing on the show as well.

This is the debut broadcast of Gotham’s Live From Mickey Mantle’s, hosted by Mark Healey and Mike Silva. Marty Appel, spokesperson for the restaurant said the following about the show…

“2008 is the 20th anniversary of Mickey Mantle’s, and we’re delighted to serve as home base for this entertaining radio program, as we were there for a daily remote when WFAN started. Mark Healey is a coming star in New York sports media and this breakthrough show will bring great attention to both his magazine and to our landmark dining facility.”

Blog Talk Radio is also the home of Mets Blog radio, and the most popular web-based platform for independent broadcasters. In just its first year, it has garnered attention and acclaim from leading media outlets like USA Today, CNN, CNET.com, TechCrunch, FoxNews, among others.

This is an incredible photoshop from Jeff at Hot Stove New York.

Who needs sources when you have common sense? As we await for the contract extension to be signed over the next 72 hours, it was obvious to us that there was no way the Twins were going to deal Johan to the Yankees or the Red Sox. Our dark horse was the Dodgers who were eerily quiet despite possessing the prospects and money, not to mention Joe Torre, to trump any Met offer.

But, today is not about gloating. It’s about celebrating an apparent steal of a deal.  We look forward to seeing Johan in Port St. Lucie, and bringing you reports from Spring Training.

Check out Matthew Cerrone making his SNY debut on Mets Hot Stove, talking about his Fan Confidence Rating which he created on MetsBlog.com