Over the next week, I’ll be breaking down the things that have to go right for the Mets this year if they want to make the playoffs.

Note: All of this is done assuming we do not make any significant acquisitions of any sort, be it through trade or a free agent signing.

First and foremost, if the ‘08 Mets want to succeed, their bullpen will need to be strong.

Even though I think both of them have their mental lapses, I am fairly confident Billy Wagner and Aaron Heilman will hold their own as a strong closer and a strong set-up man respectively.

However, you need more than two people to have a good bullpen. If I had to take a guess, the Mets will carry 12 pitchers. Subtract four starters that will start the season on the roster (no reason to start the season with 5 starters), Wagner and Heilman, you have six slots left. As of now, I give those spots to Pedro Feliciano, Scott Schoenweis, Duaner Sanchez, Jorge Sosa, Matt Wise and Juan Padilla. However, Steven Register could easily take Juan Padilla’s spot, as could a long reliever.

Assuming that is the general gist of our bullpen, these are the things that need to happen for our bullpen to be strong:

• Duaner Sanchez returns to his pre-taxi crash form. Before his crash, Sanchez had a 2.60 ERA in 49 games, which is close to irreplaceable. While Heilman is a work horse, he can go through rough spells and sometimes needs someone else to cover the eighth inning. Sosa showed flashes of brilliance out of the ‘pen last year, but he doesn’t seem ready to be our second righty out. A strong Duaner would not only provide us with many innings if high quality relief, but give more rest to Heilman, Sosa etc. Sosa especially seemed to need a rest down the stretch, pitching 12 innings in September while registering a 6.57 ERA.
• The re-birth of Scott Schoenweis. I know, you probably hate him. But let’s give him another shot. Booing him clearly hasn’t helped, as he had a 6.91 ERA at home this year, while a 3.26 ERA on the road. So maybe lets let him feel comfortable, and he’ll do better, can we give that a shot? Also, Willie has to learn how to use The Schoe more effectively. Lefties hit a mere .206 against him last year, while righties managed to tee off of him for a batting average of .316. Then, why did Willie let him face 136 righty batters? If we need a righty out, why not turn to Pedro Feliciano, who righties hit a poor .221 against. He clearly has talent (1.86 ERA in April) so lets give him another shot, give him a clean slate and let him try and impress us.
• The Development of Jorge Sosa. Sosa started of his tenure as a Mets’ reliever very well. In his first 11 innings as a reliever, he gave up only one run. His first full month as a reliever, August, he had a 3.00 ERA in 18 innings. Perhaps due to fatigue, and not being used to the schedule of a reliever, Sosa struggled in September towards a 6.57 ERA for the month. However, that month of August showed us what he can do. Should his arm strength and durability as a reliever improve, he can hopefully build on those August numbers. And if he turns out to be a solid middle-reliever, Omar might have found himself a shiny diamond in the rough with his signing.
• The success of one of Matt Wise or Juan Padilla/Steven Register. It’s unrealistic and almost unnecessary to think that you need the whole bullpen to be great. However, if you have a weak rotation, you do need most of it. One of the back end guys, whether it be Matt Wise, Juan Padilla or Steven Register has to step-up and surprise people. At first glance, Wise looks mediocre: 4.19 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP last year. However, if you take a closer look, he had a 2.70 ERA through July 23. Down the stretch he failed, but he was brilliant for the first 3 1/2 months of the season. We saw what Padilla could do in 2005, when he posted a 1.49 ERA in 36.1 innings. However, after Tommy John Surgery, we need to wait and see if he can return to anything near to his 2005 form. Finally, Steven Register, who the Mets selected in the Rule V draft this year. Register has never been above AA, where last year he posted a 4.03 ERA while recording 37 saves for the Rockies AA affiliate. At 24, he’s the most unproven and must unknown candidate in this group.

With a rotation that will most likely look like: Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, John Maine, Orlando Hernandez and Mike Pelfrey, a strong bullpen will be neccesary. Pelfrey, Maine and Perez will all be erratic, while Pedro and El Duque are both aging and struggle to go deep into games. Duaner has shown he can be great, Schoenweis deserves another chance, Jorge Sosa has shown he can be solid and we might still need some help from the back of the ‘pen. All in all, if our bullpen can pump out a solid season, our weak starting pitching will seem to be a much smaller issue than it actually is.