Every scouting report you read about the Mets details their most glaring weakness - an inability to hit left-handed pitching.

At one time, that may have been true, but it is no longer the case. Through the first 37 games of this season, the Mets have hit .283 against left-handed pitching and only .248 vs right-handers.

The irony goes a bit further when you look at the power stats. The Mets have hit only 29 home runs thus far this season - 19 vs RH pitching and only 10 against lefties.

In analyzing these stats, I found a disturbing trend. The Mets’ AB leader vs lefties is Carlos Delgado. David Wright, the Mets’ premier RH hitter is fifth. Against right-handed pitching, Wright is first.

It appears that the Mets are being outmaneuvered in the right-lefty matchup game.

Other numbers that jumped out…….Carlos Beltran is hitting .229 against RHP and .294 against LHP. Why is he still batting clean-up against righties?……Wright is crushing LHP at a pace of .450 and struggling against RHP, hitting only .208……….Delgado is actually hitting LHP better than RHP (.268 - .229)

What ’s going on here…?

It has come time for me, one opinionated fan, to take on the unbiased statistical season projections of the venerable Baseball Prospectus, and see who comes out on top. This idea came from sabermetrician Tom Tango, who theorized last year that maybe a group of fans could do as well or better at projecting their team’s stats than the various projection systems out there could. In year one of the experiment, it certainly looks like he was right.

So on to year two! Here is an opinion on how our regulars will do this season, from a guy who watches almost every game and follows the numbers, but has no claims of being any good at forecasting. I’m making guesses at OPS (on-base-percentage plus slugging percentage) for the hitters, and ERA for the pitchers.

Carlos Delgado. My guess: 790 OPS. Baseball Prospectus’s projection: 815 OPS.

Delgado’s 2007 was much worse in my head than it was actual practice. In my head, he posted about a 320 OBP and a 410 SLG, when in real life he had a 333 OBP and a 448 SLG. He started off so bad that I suspect many fans would make the same mistake I did, and not realize he had an 837 OPS from May 1 on. After learning of these stats, I like BP’s number a lot better than I like my number for Delgado—so my guesses are off to a rollicking start!

Luis Castillo. Me: 715. BP: 702.

Castillo, at this point in his career, brings exactly one skill to the table—he gets on base slightly more often than an average major leaguer. His range in the field is severely limited. He won’t make many errors, but he won’t get to very much either and should be considered a below-average second baseman both offensively and defensively. Given his age and his bad knees, I have no idea why Omar Minaya decided to ink him to a four-year deal. But he did, so we should all get used to seeing Castillo hit singles and field the occasional groundball for the next few years.

Jose Reyes. Me: 775. BP: 788.

I’ve come around to the idea that Jose is not going to be a power hitter, and my guess for him reflects this belief. That said, he’ll provide us plenty of value with his speed and defense, in addition to being a plenty serviceable hitter at the plate. In short, I still love you Jose! Bring back the Professor Reyes bit!

David Wright. Me: 900. BP: 935.

David is a beast at the plate, and I expect him to continue to hit like one well into the next decade. I would say his fielding is underrated, but then again he won a Gold Glove last year that he probably didn’t deserve, so I guess his fielding is overrated. But know that David has excellent range at third, and I expect him to cut down on his throwing errors as he gains more and more major-league service time. BP and I both have him coming down from his mammoth 962 OPS in 2007, but I have him coming down a little further. Maybe my subconscious is just trying to lock in that 900 number and be satisfied. I mean, I personally would take a 390 OBP and a 510 SLG from David right now. Anything above that would be gravy.

Brian Schneider. Me: 700. BP: 664.

I don’t know much about Schneider, so my opinion doesn’t really add anything here. From everything I’ve read, though, he’s pretty much useless at the plate. I expect him to hit his career OPS of 700, while BP is seeing him as more like the player of last year, who posted a whopping 662 OPS. To be fair, Schneider did have a 649 OPS in 2006. (Sigh.) I don’t care how good he supposedly is defensively, there’s almost no way Schneider adds value to our team if he’s this disastrous at the plate.

Moises Alou. Me: 850. BP: 852

We all know Mo can hit. No one knows if he ever actually will.

Carlos Beltran. Me: 880. BP: 864.

Underappreciated by many Mets fans, Carlos Beltran is a tremendous hitter when healthy, and a pretty damn good hitter even when he’s a little nicked up. My guess for him represents cautious optimism that he’ll be slightly less nicked up this year than last, although I am worried about his molasses-like start to spring training this year (and by that I mean his inability to get on the field). BP sees Carlos doing basically what he did last year. I expect slight improvement.

Ryan Church. Me: 800. BP: 821.

Here’s another guy who was underrated in the minds of many baseball people until the Mets traded for him. He wasn’t worth giving up Lastings Milledge—not by a country mile—but Church can hit. We’ll see how he does in a full-time role, but I don’t expect a major drop-off from his rate stats of last year. Interestingly, BP actually sees him improving his rate stats. That’s good news.

Endy Chavez. Me: 705. BP: 696.

Endy is not much of a hitter, unfortunately. If he were, he’d be an everyday player easily given how he good he is in the field. He’ll make a great fourth outfielder for us, as he’s been for the last two seasons.

Ramon Castro. Me: 780. BP: 787.

Ramon, on the other hand, is an excellent hitter for a catcher. He hasn’t ever played a full season and the Mets don’t expect him to. I (along with everyone else) just hope he’ll be healthy enough to play about half the season, preferably the half during which Schneider is unable to play because of some injury or other. The days of Sandy Alomar Jr. and the like (as players) better be long over.

So there’s my take on the hitters. I’m going to make BP the early favorite in our prediction war (no surprise there), and I certainly hope their numbers are better than mine, as their numbers are higher for six of the ten hitters listed. Next week, I’ll take a look at the pitchers in Part II. And then it will be almost time to play ball!

Amazin Avenue provides a look at hitter projections based on those by Sean ‘Chone’ Smith. CHONE projections were quite accurate in the past 2 seasons.

Head over to Amazin Avenue for an analysis of how the Mets stack up against the average hitters at their positions.

I have to say, these numbers seem awfully optimistic. If the Mets are able to sniff this projected output, the offense is in fine shape.

Eric Simon on Amazin’ Avenue refers us to Baseball Think Factory who have posted their 2008 ZiPS projections. ZiPS projections are computer based projections of expected production.

ZiPS predicts a .313/.405/.540 line for David Wright, .302/.365/.489 for Moises Alou, and .270/.355/.449 for Lastings Milledge.

ZiPS predicts the Mets pitching will do well, both in the bullpen and rotation. Kevin Mulvey is projected to be a breakout star.

Mulvey had a 3.24 ERA with Double-A Binghamton last season. ZiPS predicts Mulvey, if given the opportunity, would have a 4.02 ERA, 38 walks and only 10 homeruns allowed in 141 Major League innings.

Eric also highlights how Baseball Think Factor, as an impartial third party outside of us Mets fans, gives a honest assessment of “The Collapse™”

While the Ny Mets are not my favorite squadron, reports of the Mets’ demise are grossly premature. When a team collapses as badly as the Mets did the last few months of the season, people always look for some narrative to explain that loss. That the Mets are just a very good team that just played badly for awhile is generally not sexy enough for the headlines, but that’s what most likely happened. How often did one hear OMG 4.67 SEC0ND HALF ERA!!!!!! the last few weeks of the season? While that’s extremely disappointing, April, May, June, and the first third of July aren’t exhibition games and the Mets did a very good job at getting those same big leaguers out over that span. Even with the bad second half, the Mets for the season got above-average performance out of both their rotation and their bullpen. Maine and Perez are young and back and while Pedro’s health is likely going to always be a question-mark, 5 starts is certainly below Pedro’s mean health projection.

While I never doubted that the Mets were a very good team, they still need to work harder at finishing teams off next year. The Mets became too complacent and too comfortable with their dominance in the first half of the season. The talent level is not the problem, the focus and execution is what needs to improve this season.

A few bullpen arms and another starter wouldn’t hurt either.

The season is now more than one-tenth of the way done. If this were football, that would mean we’d played two games. But it’s baseball, so we’ve played seventeen. It’s obviously way too early to draw conclusions about how our Mets will fare by season’s end, but it’s not too early to evaluate how things are going so far.

Before the season started, TangoTiger offered fans the chance to project the season’s statistics for players on their teams. I hesitate to call my picks projections, as they were nothing more than my best guesses, but I did make my picks. Baseball Prospectus, of course, did extensive research to create their projections. So I thought it would be fun to compare my projections to theirs periodically throughout the season, and analyze how our guys were doing in the process.

I only projected OPS (on-base-percentage plus slugging percentage) for hitters, and ERA for pitchers. Let’s look at our eight regulars.

Paul Lo Duca. Current OPS: .637, Baseball Prospectus projection: .726, my pick: .695.
Ironically, a BP writer’s column mentioning Lo Duca’s age (35) and the tendency for catchers to wear down is what caused me to pick a low OPS for Paul this year. (He posted a .783 OPS last season.) On BP’s advice, I went lower than even BP did. Unfortunately, Paul has struggled so far, with just two extra-base hits in 53 at-bats. Even if I accept that part of Lo Duca’s job is to hit behind Reyes and help him along the base paths–let’s face it, Reyes doesn’t need much help. Castro has been much more effective than Lo Duca so far. We’ll see if that continues going forward.

Carlos Delgado: Current: .546, BP: .876, me: .930.
Wow, is Delgado in a funk. He posted a .909 OPS last season, and has a career OPS of .943. Still, all is not lost. According to BP, Delgado has a higher line drive percentage than even Moises Alou. I’m not sure those stats are perfect, but clearly Delgado has hit into some bad luck. I think it’s safe to say Delgado is not himself right now, and that he will certainly start hitting for power at some point, and probably some point soon.

Jose “Stash” Valentin: Current: .762, BP: .776, me: .750
Stash has been right in line with the projections so far. No one expects him to duplicate the .820 OPS he posted last year, especially not the .490 slugging percentage part of it. Valentin remains a solid contributor at second base though–especially on the defensive side. He is becoming one of my favorite Mets, but just so I don’t jinx him, I’ll add that the man is still 37 years old.

Jose “Jose Jose Jose” Reyes: Current: 1.096 (!!!), BP: .766, me: .890
This is one where I’m quite confident I’m going to beat the staff of Baseball Prospectus, who saw a decline in both OBP and slugging percentage for Jose this year. Come on. What is there to be said about Jose’s performance so far? It’s been fantastic, phenomenal, otherworldly, just pick whatever superlative you like. Let’s just hope he can stay somewhere near this pace for 162 games.

David Wright: Current: .717, BP: .925, me: .910
Everyone knows David is in a little slump. But his OBP is still a very respectable .368. That’s pretty good for somebody in a slump (see Carlos Delgado, OBP .278). David is not going to hit the 29 home runs that BP projected. If you go back to an earlier post I wrote, I said David would not hit more than 22 home runs this year. I stand by that. I’ll also say now that he’ll give us plenty of extra-base hits and a great OPS before the season’s end.

Moises Alou: Current: .926, BP: .839, me: n/a
I didn’t pick this one, because what do I know about Moises Alou? The idea behind fans making projections was to get the input from people who watch these guys every day, and see how their predictions compare to the expert stats guys. Well, I certainly didn’t feel qualified to say anything about what Alou would do this year, and so I didn’t make a pick. Clearly, Alou has been great so far.
He never seems to have a bad at-bat. If he can stay healthy, he may prove to be the best signing of the offseason.

Carlos Beltran: Current: 1.091, BP: .906, me: .940
Beltran has picked up right where he left off. He gave us a .982 OPS last year, and he doesn’t appear to be letting up. He’s still only thirty. By the time he’s done, he may be the most productive outfielder the Mets have ever had.

Shawn Green: Current: .980, BP: .760, me: .740
Green has been the most pleasant surprise of the season. But let’s not go crazy. According to BP, he has by far the lowest line drive percentage among our regulars. Again, I take those numbers with a grain of salt, because it seems like a fairly difficult thing to track. There’s no doubt, however, that Green has been lucky in this first tenth of the season. I sure hope he keeps it up, but I expect his OBP and slugging percentage to drop off in the coming weeks.

It’s really too early to say much about the pitchers’ performances, but really quickly, here are the numbers:
Current/BP/Me
Glavine 3.07/4.05/3.88
El Duque 3.24/4.18/4.42
Maine 1.93(!!)/4.33/4.00
Perez 3.31/4.46/4.00
Pelfrey 5.06/4.38/3.85
Wagner 0.00/2.32/2.41
Heilman 3.18/3.81/2.45
Feliciano 0.00/3.90/2.98
Schoeneweis 2.70/4.30/3.67 (I don’t know why I made a pick on this one. Also, it’s worth noting that BP didn’t know he’d be pitching at Shea when they made their projections.)

Even though it doesn’t mean anything, I’d like to enjoy this moment where my picks are beating BP’s for 10 players. They’re beating me for 6 players.

And finally, here’s the best player who neither BP nor myself projected.

Joe Smith: 9 1/3 IP, 6 H, 4 BB, 10 K, 0 R

Welcome to the bigs, kid.

Let’s go Mets for the other ninety percent!

Michael Salfino at SNY points out and interesting fact regarding John Maine.

Impressive.

Baseball Prospectus has unveiled their PECOTA projections. PECOTA, for those less nerdy than some of us, is a sabermetric system for predicting player performance. If you're looking for the gory details, check here.

Lastings Milledge's best-case (90th percentile), neutral-park projection for 2007 is
.320/.396/.551 (AVG/OBP/SLG). His weighted
mean projection is .289/.359/.476.

Mike Pelfrey 's Mean projection is 4.37 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9.

Hat tip to Baseball Crank for the link.

Ryan McConnell from Always Amazin' brings to our attention the list of most similar pitchers to Barry Zito through the age of 28 on Baseball Reference.

According to Baseball Reference, Zito compares to Mike Hampton, Ramon Martinez, Ray Culp, Johnny Podres, and Mickey Lolich. Not exactly impressive company, but these comparisons are very unscientific.

Check out Ryan's always informative blog for a more in depth look at the future for Barry Zito.

Carlos Beltran has outdone Joe DiMaggio in terms of October
performance.

Beltran has scored an incredible 29 runs in 19 postseason
games.

DiMaggio scored 27 runs in 51 postseason games (all World Series
games in his case).