It’s an old Sabermetrics argument. Just like how batting average is a somewhat poor and antiquated judge of offensive success, a pitcher’s win-loss record is not the end-all, be-all of pitching prowess.
So why does the media still look to it so often? From time to time, ESPN commentators will describe a pitcher’s worth solely by his win-loss record, ignoring everything else. Cy Young voters have done the same in the past.
In 2005, Roger Clemens posted a 1.87 ERA, but because of terrible run support, his record was only 13-8. He was largely considered the third-best candidate behind Dontrelle Willis, who was 22-10 with a 2.63 ERA, and the eventual Cy Young award winner, Chris Carpenter, who was 21-5 with a 2.83 ERA. So Carpenter’s ERA was almost a full point higher than Clemens, but the Cardinals’ run support basically gives Carpenter the award.
Over in the AL that year, a bigger robbery took place. Bartolo Colon went 21-8 but had a very middle-of-the-pack sounding 3.48 ERA. Meanwhile, Mariano Rivera had the best year of his career, converting 43 of 47 saves with a 1.38 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. But that’s just not as flashy as the title of “20-game winner.”
The people who really suffer from the misconception of the win-loss record are those who pitch seasons with miserable luck. Matt Cain went 7-16 last year. Sounds like a terrible year, but he had a 3.65 ERA, a modest 1.26 WHIP and batters were just hitting .235 against him. His record happened because the Giants suck; just ask Chris Russo.
It seems Aaron Harang is currently having a Cain-esque season with the Reds. He has a Zito-esque record of 2-8, but his ERA is just 3.86 with a WHIP of 1.29. He has 78 strikeouts to just 20 walks. Harang is actually putting up very similar stats to the numbers that have netted him 16-win seasons the past two years.
On a much smaller scale, hurlers like Johan Santana should have better records. People look at Santana’s record of 7-4 and wonder why he isn’t on pace for a 25-win season or something. Not only is his record perfectly acceptable, but if it was closer to his stats, he’d be Cy Young dueling with Brandon Webb. On April 6, Santana gave up just one earned run in seven innings pitched and lost. In his last start, he gave up two earned runs in seven innings pitched. Throw in that other Atlanta start where Santana gave up 12 hits but limited the damage to three earned runs, and maybe Santana could easily have 10 wins right now.
With pitching, its best not to always dwell on win-loss record because overall team success plays far too heavy a variable for such an individual statistic.
Sphere: Related ContentAccording to the New York Daily News, federal investigators could have photo evidence that contradicts Roger Clemens’ sworn statements that he was not at a 1998 party at Jose Canseco’s house. The issue of his attendance at said party has come up in both the Mitchell Report and the Feb. 13th hearing in Washington.
“We have reason to believe it’s reliable evidence,” Richard Emery, an attorney for Clemens’ accuser Brian McNamee, told the Daily News on Thursday. “We believe there’s photographic evidence that shows Clemens was at a party he says he wasn’t at.”
Clemens and his attorney are now backpedaling in light of the evidence, saying that Clemens may have been at the party.
And he may have taken performance enhancing drugs.
I have to admit, I am enjoying this after all the animosity Clemens caused during the 2000 season. Karma is a real bitch.
Sphere: Related ContentThis is a little old, but too funny not to post. In case you missed it, Jon Stewart on Roger Clemens…
Sphere: Related ContentFoxsports.com is reporting that there is new evidence in the Roger Clemens case that shows a picture of him at a party at the house of Jose Canseco in 1998. Clemens went under oath saying he was not at the party, and his former trainer Brian McNamee has said that he knows for a fact Clemens was at the party.
I think they are both no good, but this cannot be looking good for Clemens.
Sphere: Related Content13 Feb
Andy Pettitte and his wife said in their deposition that Roger Clemens told them he used HGH.
The hearings are being streamed online live at ESPN.
Jayson Stark is live blogging the proceedings on his ESPN blog.
Sphere: Related ContentAccording to SI.com, of the original five of Chuck Knoblauch, Kirk Radomski, Roger Clemens, Andy Petitte, and Brian McNamee, only McNamee and Clemens will testify before Congress on February 13th.
Interesting, Very Interesting.
Added by Anthony De Rosa
Clemens met with members of Congress prior to giving testimony. Senators fawned over Clemens, afterwards expressing how much they were impressed with him. He’s attempted to use the opportunity to win favor with the people he’s about to testify for by fraternizing with them beforehand.
I won’t be surprised if they go soft on Clemens when he testifies because they’ve been drawn into his cult of personality.
Because of these meetings behind closed doors with committee members, I’m not surprised at the news that many others are now not coming to testify.
I’m now wondering if they might go harder on McNamee than they do on Clemens, seeking to save the reputation of someone they see as a baseball hero.
I’m hoping I’m wrong, but i’m starting to get that sense.
Sphere: Related ContentBrian McNamee’s lawyer had strong words upon the release of the taped conversation between McNamee and Roger Clemens, the New York Daily News reports.
“What does (Clemens) do, he calls him back with his lawyer in the room and a tape recorder going,” McNamee attorney Richard Emery told the Daily News last night. “He wants to play that game, he’s going to get buried. I have no compunction about putting him in jail.
“This is war.”
McNamee states that he had asked Clemens to reach out to his sick son and had no intentions of speaking to Clemens. Clemens reached out to McNamee and never did call McNamee’s son.
Sphere: Related ContentToasted Joe gives us his version of the Roger Clemens and Brian McNamee phone conversation.
Brilliant as always Joe, too funny.
Sphere: Related ContentWFAN.com has the audio from a call between Roger Clemens and Brian McNamee, which was played at today’s press conference.
Clemens repeatedly denies using steroids during a conversation, but the former trainer does not confirm or deny his claims.
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