Baseball Prospectus has once again made its painstakingly-considered PECOTA projections for the new baseball season. Happily, the Mets are projected to finish first in the NL East by ten games. Based on this projection, some might even consider us “the team to beat.” (Hah!)

Last year I made my own predictions for each hitter’s OPS and each pitcher’s ERA and tracked my progress against BP’s throughout the season. In the end, BP came closer on nine of the 16 players for which I made my guesses, but at least I put up a respectable fight.

While we’re at it, let’s look at some other things I said in columns at various points last year.

“I expect us to be in the top three (in the NL) in runs allowed.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG. Six freakin’ teams (the Padres, Cubs, Giants, Dodgers, DBacks, and Braves) all alowed fewer runs than we did.

“I expect to be in the top three (in the NL) in runs scored.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG. We finished fourth behind the Phillies, Rockies, and Braves. You could argue that we had a top-three offense and that the Phillies and Rockies were benefited by hitter’s parks, but I specifically predicted runs scored.

“I expect us to win a lot of games–more than 90.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG.

“I expect Mike Pelfrey to have a fantastic year.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG.

“I expect Lastings Milledge to play the bulk of the innings for us in rightfield.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG. Man, that one still hurts.

“I expect Paul Lo Duca to have a down year.” (March 13, 2007)
RIGHT. In poker, we say even a blind squirrel can sometimes find a nut.

“I expect Carlos Delgado, who quietly played hurt most of last season, to have a big year.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG.

“I expect Jose Valentin to fall off considerably.” (March 13, 2007)
RIGHT.

“I expect Jonathan Adkins to prove more valuable than anyone thinks he will be.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG. Boy, why did I ever think that Omar Minaya might’ve traded Heath Bell and Royce Ring for somebody halfway decent?

On projecting Jose Reyes - “This is one where I’m quite confident I’m going to beat the staff of Baseball Prospectus.” (April 23, 2007)
WRONG. As we all know, Jose got off to a torrid start, only to be mired in a second-half slump that eventually dropped his season-long OPS to a mere 775. I had predicted 890. BP had predicted 766 (these guys are good).

“David Wright is not going to hit the 29 home runs that BP projected” (April 23, 2007)
WRONG. Hey, he hadn’t even hit one at the time I wrote that!

“I have a lot of confidence in Aaron Heilman, and predict that he will end the season with a lower ERA than he has now (3.07).” (May 10, 2007)
RIGHT. He ended with 3.03. Phew.

OK, so I was wrong about a lot of things Mets last year. The only good news is, if you look at the stuff everyone else was writing, I wasn’t the only one. So why, then, would I keep making predictions about stuff when it seems pretty clear I don’t know what I’m talking about? Answer: because it’s fun.

I’m not quite ready to make this year’s predictions just yet, but I do want to post some leanings I have about BP’s new numbers.

David Wright: OVER 21 SB. BP projects David to steal 13 fewer bases than last year, and I just don’t see it. He was successful on 87 percent of his attempts last year, and he’s still young. There’s no reason for him not to steal.

Moises Alou: UNDER 406 Plate Appearances. He didn’t have that many last year or the year before, and he turns 42 in July.

Ramon Castro: OVER 256 Plate Appearances. God willing.

Johan Santana: UNDER 2.94 ERA. I read about this guy somewhere. They said that in 16 career starts against NL teams, he has a 2.16 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. Also, apparently fewer than half of those games were played in Shea Stadium.

Oliver Perez: UNDER 4.22 ERA. He posted a 3.56 last year, though he gave up 20 unearned runs, which is never a good sign. Still, I see Ollie improving, not regressing, and would be very surprised if he doesn’t beat his 4.22 projection in 2008.

Scott Schoeneweis: OVER 4.05 ERA. I have no confidence that Willie Randolph will use him correctly (i.e., he’ll put him in against more than zero righties), and therefore predict doom for his ERA.

That’s all I’ve got for now. Fuller predictions coming soon. Enjoy spring training!

On Omar Minaya’s conference call this evening he commented regarding Ramon Castro saying he is very happy that they were able to re-sign Ramon Castro, because he ‘has the ability’ to be an every day guy, if given the opportunity.

Castro batted .285 and hit 11 home runs in only 52 games last year. In response to a reader’s e-mail regarding the Mets giving Castro a chance to be the Mets starting pitcher, Marty Noble responded with the following on Mets.com:

The Mets believe the theory of the point of diminishing return applies with Castro — that his production will not necessarily double if his playing time is doubled, and that, chances are, his level production will decrease at some point the more he plays. They consider him a talented and better-than average understudy, but an understudy nonetheless.

Noble also cites Castro’s arthritic back as something that would be issue if he were to have to make the majority of starts.

There seems to be a growing idea that the Mets catching situation will be a platoon, but my guess is if they wanted Ramon Castro to play more they would have kept Paul Lo Duca.

Yorvit Torrealba is younger, and will need less time off, and I happen to think Castro will play less, not more than he did when Lo Duca was here.

I could be wrong, but thats my analysis.

I’d be curious what you guys think. I set the over/under at 40% of the at bats, and i’m going with the under for Castro.

Trey Coppola gives her take on CoppolaSisters.com

I asked some of the other Hot Foot writers, and here’s what they thought :

(more…)

Here’s a roundup of buzz this afternoon on the Hot Stove front…

• Kosuke Fukudome is considering his options in Japan, and may not necessarily be making the move to MLB, reports Ken Rosenthal in Fox Sports.
• Ramon Castro’s 2-year $4 million deal is all but pending a physical at this point, reports the New York Daily News.
• If Kenny Rogers wants to return to the Rangers, he has to apologize, reports the Dallas Morning News. This Kenny Rogers stuff gets funnier by the day.
• The Padres are trying to sign an extention with Jake Peavy, reports the San Diego Union Tribune.
• Several juicy items on Buster Olney’s blog this afternoon. He reports that the Dodgers are very interested in Aaron Rowand.
• Olney is saying the Phillies are making a push for Mike Lowell but we reported earlier this week that the Phillies don’t have money for anything but pitching. Remember Olney also said A-Rod would sign for $220 over 10 years, so buzz baloney beware.
• Six teams are interested in Matt Clement, with the Padres being the most likely destination.
• Another rumor I do not buy is that Andruw Jones could return to Atlanta. Apparently the Braves just found a bunch of money between their cushions (they made a profit for the first time in years) and might actually spend it.

Ronald Blum and Mike Fitzpatrick at the Associated Press report that the Mets are closing in on a two-year contract to bring back back up catcher Ramon Castro.

Castro batted .285 with 11 home runs and 31 RBIs in 144 at-bats last season.

Dayn Perry on Fox Sports breaks down the needs of each MLB team this off season.

Perry believes that the Mets should let the ‘deliriously overrated’ Paul Lo Duca walk and make Ramon Castro the starting catcher.

Six Mets filed for free agency today, Marlon Anderson, Luis Castillo, Paul Lo Duca, Ramon Castro, Damion Easley and Shawn Green. It is unlikely that Easley will be pursued by the team, however Castillo is being targeted as a reacquisition.

Not terrible much to add…if Green and Castro are brought back its most likely as bench players not starters. Of that group I’d assume Castillo and Anderson are the ones the team will put the most effort towards bringing back. With Easley’s injury being as severe as it is I don’t see much of any team giving him a chance till he’s healthy enough to better judge his recovery.

Thanks Always Amazin for this hystericial story…

Ramon Castro caught five innings in the instructional league, going
0-for-1 at the plate with a sacrifice fly and a walk. Castro is
eligible to come off the disabled list today.

Ramon Castro (knee surgery) was scheduled to catch three innings in an
instructional league Thursday. “Hopefully he'll meet us in Atlanta
[Sept. 26-28],” Randolph said, Bergan Record reports.

Reserve catcher Ramon Castro should begin playing in
Instructional League rehab games in a few days and could rejoin the
team next week, reports The Journal News.

Mets Blog is reporting by way of Ken Rosenthal on Fox Sports that the Mets may be in talks to acquire cathcer Danny Ardoin, 32, was designated for assignment by the Rockies last Friday and jack of all trades, Luis Gonzales.

Gonzalez,
27, primarily is a second baseman, but he has played all four infield
positions in the past two seasons as well as left field and right. He
would give the Mets protection if Jose Valentin again is slowed by his
right hamstring injury. Chris Woodward is currently the Mets' only
backup infielder.

In return for Ardoin and Gonzalez, the Rockies
likely would receive Class AA right-hander Matt Lindstrom, 26, or Class
AA right-hander Henry Owens, 27.

Brian Bannister was promoted and will get the start tonight. In his last minor league start, he settled in after
allowing a solo HR in the first inning. He pitched five more scoreless innings for his second
win in a row.  He finished with five
strikeouts and one walk.

Lastings Milledge was sent down to make room for Bannister but is likely to return quickly, as rosters expand on September 1st to allow for 40 players.

Ramon Castro had surgery on his knee and was placed on the 60 day DL. Kelly Stinnett was picked up by the Mets after being released by the Yankees last month as insurance for Mike DiFelice as a third catcher option.

Paul LoDuca on his WFAN spot, when asked about Delgado's
struggles, said that his hand is bothering him but won't say
anything about it.

In a Journal News report yesterday, they chronicled Delgado's bumps and bruises.

Regarding the stuff in the papers about him, Paul said

On the gambling allegations. He said its strictly on horses. Sometimes its guilt by association when it comes to this stuff. He said there are no loansharks looking for him, he chuckled and then continued saying there are no people looking for him off the field.

When asked if someone is out to get him, he said you never know. Its too hard to comment, to wonder what if.

On his focus and excellent play despite all the attention in the papers. He gave credit to Rick Down, the Mets hitting coach. He worked with him in LA. everyday working in the cage. He's trying to stay in on the ball, go the other way with it. He said he's lucky to be in this lineup. He's getting good pitches to hit.

On the past two games, we just got beat up the past two days, hopefully we can come back tonight.

On Pedro's start he said it was just one of those innings. He went out to talk to Pedro. When he threw that first fastball 88 mph he knew something wasnt right. We booted a couple of balls. We needed to be mentally stronger. He said its a tough ballpark. If you walk guys its gonna turn into 6-7 innings. Hopefully (Pedro's injury) is nothing serious. He thought during the game, we have a 15-14 game lead, we dont need him right now. I wanted him to get off that mound.

On last nights game, it was one of those nights, El Duque struggled with his breaking ball, it hung in. He said they're running into a hot team right now hitting wise. He said the Mets are gonna have our work cut out for us the next couple of days. He said they really didnt play good in Washington and they need to pick it up. “We're in a lull right now.”

On Milledge he said he's gonna be fine. He said this park is weird, you dont know if its shallow or deep. Beningo made a remark saying it wouldnt hurt to have Milledge catch a ball and Lo Duca said

Paul said Lastings has been a little bit tentative, he has a reputation to be a good fielder. He's the youngest playing in the National League.

On the Phillies, he we want to win at least one of these game.

Asked if  any chemistry letdown has resulted losing Nady…

On the bullpen…

On Ramon Castro…