With the signings of Billy Wagner and Moises Alou, the Mets have not had first-round picks in the past two years. Coupled with the various trades Omar Minaya has executed over the last two years, most notably the Johan Santana deal, the Mets’ farm system is depleted. Armed with three picks within the first 33 choices, the Mets have a great opportunity to help restock the system at Thursday’s Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft.

It might serve interesting to take a look at the first-round picks the Mets have had since 2000 and the varying degrees of success and failure the related moves have brought to the organization.

With the 16th pick in the 2000 draft, the Mets selected LHP Billy Traber. An article for the New York Times reported the Mets were going to offer Traber $1.7 million, but after seeing M.R.I. results on his elbow, Traber accepted the Mets’ new offer of $400,000. I would guess that is why he was so quickly dealt to the Cleveland Indians in the Roberto Alomar trade.

He did well for the Indians in 2002 and 2003 before having Tommy John surgery. He was out of baseball for the entirety two years before landing with the Washington Nationals in 2006, which is probably where Mets fans remember seeing him again. He got a chance to make both the Nationals’ rotation and bullpen but ultimately failed in both attempts. He was acquired by the Yankees for the 2008 season, where he began in the bullpen but quickly lost his job once again.

Obviously, looking back, Traber did not turn into the No. 3 starter the Mets thought he would become. He was a bust for both the Mets organization and every organization that has picked him up since. Ultimately, he just hasn’t been able to recover from the lingering arm problems.

Thinking back on the 2001 draft is much more fun because both players the Mets bagged in the first round of that draft are still on the team. After an early attempt at starting with mixed results, highlighted by a 1-hit shutout against the Marlins in 2005, Aaron Heilman has served as the Mets’ off-again, on-again set-up man. Heilman’s relationship with both the Mets fans and the set-up role is notoriously love-hate. Heilman is basically the Diane Chambers (from Cheers) of the New York Mets.

But all things considered, picking Heilman has worked out. He has definitely contributed to the major league club on more than one occasion, particularly down the stretch. The Mets didn’t really need to trade for a Roberto Hernandez at the trade deadline in 2006 because Heilman admirably stepped to the plate in the absence of Sanchez. Has he done well in 2008? No. Will he do all that well in the future? Still up for debate.

The other pick in 2001 was David Wright, a Gold Glove, MVP-caliber player. No real arguments needed.

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The Minnesota Twins have named Carlos Gomez their starting center fielder, demoting his competition for the spot to AAA Rochester.  Joining the Red Wings will be Gomez trade mate Phil Humber. Gomez has done respectable for the spring, with a 286 average and 10 stolen bases. He’ll join an outfield that also includes fellow new Twin Delmon Young.

Phil Humber ended a streak of nine scoreless innings today, primarily by giving up runs. He gave up two of them, over three innings.  Despite his nice streak, he is still likely to start the season with the AAA Red Wings.

 So being that the Twins AAA team plays in NY, would it be wrong to ask Humber to autograph Mets stuff when he gets sent out here? Because I don’t want to buy Twins stuff. 

The AP reports that the former prospects dealt by the Mets for some random Venezuelan guy have arrived at the Twins spring training facilities. Phil Humber was assigned Santana’s old locker, and had this to say:

He didn’t leave any money in it. I already looked

They further report that all four are ready to try and prove their worth to their new club and its fans, though Gomez is the sole one believed to have a good chance at making the active roster.

I hope they do well, but for the selfish reason that the Twins AAA affiliate has their stadium about ten minutes from my apartment, so I’ll get to watch Humber pitch and possible Gomez play as well. Its good to see that they seem to be taking all this well, going from Mets of the future to a place where they’re ‘those guys we got for the Greatest Pitcher in the Majors.” Yeah, no pressure boys.

La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports that both the New York Mets and Minnesota Twins have discussed adding another player to the reported Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey deal. While the Mets view 19-year old prospect Fernando Martinez as ‘practically untouchable’, the two sides have talked about adding Scott Schoeneweis, Joe Smith or Aaron Heilman to the deal for Johan Santana.

The Yankees and Twins have discussed adding a third or fourth player to their proposed deal of Philip Hughes and Melky Cabrera.

The Red Sox have discussed tweaking the back-end of their current offers to make the deal happen, but the Twins still would have to work with either a deal led by outfield prospect Jacoby Ellsbury or another led by pitcher Jon Lester, but not both in the same deal.

Update 1/26 - 7:12 p.m. - It appears that Neal updated the article and now it does not include pitchers Scott Schoeneweis or Joe Smith.

Over the next week, I’ll be breaking down the things that have to go right for the Mets this year if they want to make the playoffs.

So far, I’ve discussed Maine and Perez, Pedro’s Arm, and the Bullpen.

Note: All of this is done assuming we do not make any significant acquisitions of any sort, be it through trade or a free agent signing.

Today, I’ll be discussing the 5th spot in the rotation.

Assuming no trades are made, the first four spots in the rotation will likely go to Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez and Orlando Hernandez.

Now, lets take a look at that 5th spot.

The favorite: Mike Pelfrey.

Last year, Pelfrey struggled mightily as a starter for the Mets. In 13 starts, he was 3-8 with a 5.58 ERA in 69.1 innings of duty. Even more troubling, was the fact that he allowed 36 walks compared to only 43 strikeouts.

Lets take a closer look at his year last year. After making the rotation after a solid spring training, Pelfrey quickly found himself at 0-5, and playing for the AAA Zephyrs. After getting called back up in July, Pelfrey found himself at 0-7. He then got demoted again.

However, Pelfrey showed lots of promise when the rosters got expanded in September, and he was brought back up. And keep in mind, September was a month when there were few bright spots for the Mets. On September 1st, Pelfrey threw 6 innings of one-hit ball, while striking out 7, to beat the Braves and register his 1st win of the season. He then won his next start against Houston, and recorded a 3rd victory of the month (and season) against the Nats later that month. However, he did lose one game on the 28th to the Nats, which would prove to be crucial.

Everybody knows how Pelfrey has an incredible sinking fastball that ranges in the mid-90’s. However, people doubt the quality of his secondary pitches. However, if Pelfrey can command his fastball enough and avoid walks, he can succeed on the major league level as he proved in September.

Next Guy Up: Phillip Humber

Humber was a college star at Rice, and was in their rotation as a freshman. The Mets took him with the 3rd pick in the draft, and after a long wait, gave him a $3.7 million signing bonus. However, in 2005 Humber hurt his elbow, resulting in Tommy John Surgery.

Since then, Humber has pitched in the minors and a couple brief stints in the Majors, however has not had the endurance to really prove himself. He got off to quick starts in most of his games, but fatigued down the stretch. Most people who get Tommy John Surgery need two years to regain their endurance, so look for him to have a strong rebounding season this year, should he get the opportunity in the big leagues.

The Dark Horse: Kevin Mulvey

Mulvey is known for having good composure. He features a fastball that sits in the high 80’s and low 90’s, which also has good sink. Look for him to surprise during spring training. Although it is such a small window to preview a pitcher, people have come out of no where and earned rotation spots for the Mets in previous years, like Brian Bannister. Look for him to really put the pressure on Pelfrey and Humber during spring training, to make sure they know if they mess up, he’ll be in AAA waiting to take their spot on the big club.

Now, what do the Mets need from this 5th starter spot?

Realistically, you can’t expect too much from your last spot in the rotation. However, when you’re putting a young gun in there like Pelfrey, Humber of Mulvey, they have the potential to surprise. While that is great, they have to be consistent. They can’t be going out there every 5th day blowing games early, and not giving the team a chance to win. They also can’t get out of games to early, and kill our bullpen. Whoever earns that spot, needs to go out there, not shoot to ‘wow’ people but aim to give the Mets lineup a chance to win.

According to a report by Kevin Kernan of the New York Post, sources say the Mets have told the Twins they would not throw in top outfield prospect Fernando Martinez in a five-for-one deal for Twins SP Johan Santana.

The two teams continue to talk and word out of Minnesota yesterday was that, yes, the Mets could snare Cy Young Santana for the right price, but as far as the Mets are concerned, that five-for-one deal is not the right price.

Mets New York Mets sources told the Post they would not make such a trade, sending away all those top-level prospects. They also have made it clear they are not trading Jose Reyes. If this deal is to get done, the Mets would be willing to give up some prospects, but not all those mentioned.

The current deal according to a report out of Minneapolis yesterday is SP Kevin Mulvey, SP Deolis Guerra, SP Phil Humber and CF Carlos Gomez.

Meanwhile, David Lennon of Newsday chimes in with more trade notes.

Just how aggressive is where Fernando Martinez, a top outfield prospect, enters the equation. A report in yesterday’s Minneapolis Star-Tribune suggested that the Mets needed only to include Martinez to complete a deal for Santana. Two people familiar with the situation said yesterday that is not the case.

Sean Deveney in The Sporting News believes the Mets will likely enter spring training with 8 to 9 pitchers vying for a spot in the starting rotation.

Its the Mets version of American Idol. Three or four of the spots will be locked up, by Pedro, Maine, Perez, and most likely El Duque. That leaves Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and three yet to be determined contestants to vie for the final spot in the top five.

That is of course unless Omar shocks the world and lands the biggest prize of this offseason. Stay tuned, but don’t hold your breath.

It seems to me, that the Mets fan base is in favor of doing whatever it takes to land Johan Santana. At MetsBlog yesterday, Matthew Cerrone discussed potential trades and ultimately concludes that he’d pull the trigger on a deal for Johan Santana, which would give up 4 pitching prospects, probably Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra in addition to Carlos Gomez.

Earlier today, Anthony posted his case for unloading the farm for Mr. Santana.

I’m here to convince you otherwise.

By trading four pitching prospects, plus the very ‘toolsy’ Carlos Gomez for Johan, its essentially mortgaging most of our farm system in favor of winning right now, as well as mortgaging all of our financial flexibility because we’d have to sign Johan to the 7 year deal he seeks, hovering arounds $20 million a year.

We’re all crying for “Freddy Coupon” to open up the wallet for Johan now, and we’ll be set. So we trade for him, but then we want a new LF after Alou is gone, but wait, we’ve given up our financial flexibility on Johan. But it’s a double whammy. Having less financial wiggle room would be OK—if you had people in the farm system who could be used as replacements. However, those players who could be useful at the Major League level anytime soon will then be a part of the Minnesota Twins organization.

So what would we be getting with Johan?

He’ll be 29 when the season starts. Granted we’ll probably get a few years of very solid production out of him, but there are so many variables that can come into play with a pitcher, mainly injuries. There is always the possibility he tears his rotator cuff, a ligament in his elbow and requires serious, career threatening surgery. That leaves us with millions of dollars on the table that handcuff our franchise for years. Even less daunting, is the chance he develops minor injuries as he ages such as recurrent hamstring problems that allow him to make only 25 starts a year. He could even age poorly and we’re stuck with an expensive, unproductive pitcher for a couple years. Injury concerns may seem far fetched, but pitchers’ injuries are so unpredictable and unreliable, and I’m not comfortable investing that much talent and money in a guy that only plays every fifth day.

Injuries aside, he has a 4.41 post season ERA, so we can be sure he’ll carry us to that postseason title. (heavy sarcasm)

Should we lock up Oliver Perez long term, after this following season we’ll only have two shoe-ins for our rotation in 2009: Perez and John Maine. By trading for Johan, we have a third mainstay in our rotation for years to come, but we have to look elsewhere for starters four and five. Our system will be depleted, and our wallet will be emptied into the hands of Johan Santana, so we’ll likely be left with unfortunate options as our fourth and fifth starters.

We don’t know what type of careers Mulvey, Pelfrey, Humber and Guerra will have. Guerra is 18 and everybody seems to rave about him. Everybody seems to really like Mulvey too. However, people seem to be down on Pelfrey and Humber. Humber is still recovering from Tommy John Surgery, and if you look at the numbers, starters bounce back two years after surgery. Best example: Chris Carpenter. Let Humber regain arm strength and we’ll see what comes from that. People express concern over Pelfrey’s lack of a second pitch, but I’ll take a 6′7″ 23 year old with a mid 90 mph sinker any day. It would be a grand mistake to sell low on a prospect, as we would be doing with Pelfrey and Humber.

The way things are looking now, unless either the Twins or Red Sox cave on their demands its very possible Johan will be a free agent next year. Do we not have the patience to wait a year and save the five top prospects we’d be losing?

In addition to Santana, C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Brad Penny can all become free agents next year. Save five prospects to have one season’s patience. If everybody is so gung-ho about being impatient and demanding to win now, why was everybody in such an uproar when Milledge was traded?

Beyond the four top pitchers we could lose, Carlos Gomez is faster than Jose Reyes–according to Reyes. He’s less developed at the plate and plays a less important position, but you can’t teach being tall and you can’t teach being fast. Alou is presumably gone after this year, and Church is solid but not a long term answer. Gomez would be great to groom for 2009 and Church could hold the fort until Fernando Martinez is ready.

We can sign somebody such as Bartolo Colon or Freddy Garcia to fill in this year, and next year pounce on the strong pitcher market.

In summation:

• We’d be investing all of our financial flexibility in one player, and that player only plays every fifth day.
• Its very possible we’d be able to go after him in free agency after this season, and we’d be sacrificing five top prospects in order to get one extra year of Johan.
• While they probably will never be as good as Mr. Santana, we have yet to see what our prospects can do and we’d be selling low on Pelfrey and Humber despite the facts we have reason to have a positive outlook for them.
• Gomez has speed that comes along once in a long time, and it’d be disappointing to see him develop into a star so far away from us, especially because we have a hole in the OF opening up next year.

I’m all in favor of trading for Santana. But four pitching prospects plus Gomez? No thank you. Take out one of the pitchers, and leave us with something to work with, I’ll probably bite. But all those prospects is just taking our chips and pushing them all in on this hand (this year) something we feel pressured to do after The Collapse, but in truth–by not making this trade we might be less likely to win this year, but we can maximize our winning over the next ten years.