Over the next week, I’ll be breaking down the things that have to go right for the Mets this year if they want to make the playoffs.

Already, I have discussed Pedro’s arm, and the bullpen.

Note: All of this is done assuming we do not make any significant acquisitions of any sort, be it through trade or a free agent signing.

Today, I’ll be looking at what we need from John Maine and Oliver Perez this year.  First lets look at Maine’s numbers from last year:

Maine had a phenomenal first half of the season, going 10-4 with a 2.71 ERA and a .214 opposing batting average.  However, after the all-star break Maine struggled.  The second half of the season, Maine was 5-6 with a 5.53 ERA and a .261 opposing batting average.  His final numbers were 15-10 with a 3.91 ERA and a .235 batting average against.

After seeing him throw only 15 starts in 2006, the Mets really couldn’t have expected any better from Maine last year.  In those 15 starts, he was 6-5 with a 3.64 ERA and a .211 opposing batting average.  However, in those starts he gave up a whopping 15 home runs.

This year, the Mets need at least the same type of performance from Maine.  Even though he left town on the wrong foot, Tom Glavine’s consistency will be difficult to replace, and Maine has to be one of the guys that steps up.  While expecting him to put up numbers the way he did before the all-star break last year is ridiculous, Maine has to be more consistent throughout the year.  A large part of the collapse was set in motion by poor performances from guys like Maine (despite his two gems in September).  Especially in the weak hitting NL, Maine needs to post an ERA hovering around 3.50 while collecting 15-17 wins.

Now Perez:

Last year, Perez was 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA and a .229 opposing batting average.  However, Perez often had difficulty with walks, issuing a total of 79 last year in 177 innings pitched. 

In 2006, where he split time between the Pirates and Mets, Perez struggled.  He was 3-13 with a 6.55 ERA while batters hit a strong .293 against him.  So, in truth–despite his universally recognized talent–last year’s performance by Perez was really a minor miracle.  He added 12 wins to his line, had three fewer losses and his ERA dropped by over 3 runs a game. 

Expect big things from Perez this year.  Beyond the fact that he’ll almost certainly benefit from another season under the tutelage of Rick Peterson, it’s a contract year for Ollie.  On the open market, a lefty who won 15 games and struck out 174 people will definitely cash in.  The Mets need consistency from Perez.  Despite his strong numbers, Perez would fall into phases where he can’t find the strike zone or just can’t get his slider across the dish.  The Mets need more consistent performances day in and day out from Perez this year.  They need him to walk less people, and win another game or two.

With an oft-injured ace in Pedro Martinez, an oft-injured starter in Orlando Hernandez, and very shaky 5th spot in the rotation, the Mets need Perez and Maine to build on their solid performance to last year, if they want to lead the Mets to the playoffs. 

Gerry Fraley at The Sporting News ranks the starting rotations in the National League and puts the Mets 9th overall out of the 16 teams.

9. Mets: RHP Pedro Martinez, RHP John Maine, LHP Oliver Perez, RHP Orlando Hernandez, RHP Mike Pelfrey.

Martinez and Hernandez are nearing the end. Maine and Pelfrey are still learning. Perez can be very good or very bad. His frequent walks lull fielders to sleep

The Diamondbacks, Padres, and Dodgers rank 1-2-3.

I wouldn’t lump Maine in with Pelfrey at all, thats a really poor job there, however I have to agree that among the rest of the rotations in the NL, the Mets are middle of the pack. Pedro has to show he can throw a full season, El Duque is almost guaranteed to go on the DL at some point, and Pelfrey is a big fat question mark. Maine and Perez to me are the only next to sure things.

You can hear comments from Omar Minaya, John Maine, and Oliver Perez on Sportscene Radio.

Maine played Santa Claus at today’s annual Christmas At Shea day, along with Mr. Met and Oliver Perez, who was Maine’s elf.

The Mets are marketing Maine and Perez quite a bit, which seems like a way for them to deflect their issues with trying to land an ace to place on top of their rotation this off season. Omar continues to say the Mets will do what they can but feel comfortable going into the season with who they have now.

SNY will be airing another edition of Mets Hot Stove tonight at 6:30pm and again at 11:00pm. Tonights show will feature special guests John Maine, Oliver Perez and Omar Minaya, and will be hosted as always by Kevin Burkhardt.

Hot Foot will post a recap of the show later this evening.

Bob Klapish over at ESPN takes a look at Oliver Perez and his rise as a pitcher this season.  Nothing new to the Shea faithful out there, but a good read nonetheless.  A nice little clip for you:

Ollie is still a work in progress, and his flyball/groundball ratio can make one nervous, but from everything we've seen he's getting better and better.  The old Ollie would have melted down last night after giving up two first inning runs.  This new Ollie found his way back, tossed a decent number of strikeouts, and ended up lasting deep into the game. The work of Rick Peterson and leadership of elder Met statesman Glavine have seemed to really help Perez, and the thought that he might still have more to learn and the ability to improve makes it all the better. 

Thanks to reader imkeithhernandez17  for the link

Just some thoughts on the Mets starters, now that we've gone a whole month into the season.

As you know, coming into the season, the age of our first two starters was put to question.  Many in the media felt Glavine was close to done, past his prime. At his age he'd be good for five innings, then back to the clubhouse for Murder She Wrote and a tv dinner. He's now 3-1, but has a no decision that was a win blown by the bullpen. He's given up 11 earned runs, for a 2.80 ERA and has 18 strikeouts.   Glavine is some sense has been better on the road, where his ERA is lower at 1.93 (its 4.5 at Shea), though he's issued 10 of his 13 walks on the road, as well as hit 3 batter. Overall, Glavine's been solid. He's had a few shakey starts, but tends to correct himself as the game goes to recover. Just as important as all this, Glavine serves as the mentor for the young starters.  Someone such as Maine, Pelf, and Perez don't always know what needs to be done to improve, and Glavine is there to help them along.

John Maine: Well he's your NL Pitcher of the Month. He's 4-0, has a low ERA (1.35) and really doesn't give up runs.  If theres any cause for concern, its that he is is a pitcher for whom the ball is often in play. Maine has strived quite well with the Mets defense behind him, and could end up suffering if Gotay and Easley prove to be much less talented at second base than Stache.  I haven't seen much of Gotay, but Easley has not yet shown any Stache worthy performances.  He has so far had slightly more fly outs than ground outs (41 to 30), though hasn't given up the long ball that much so far. One could say he's a bit overdue to give one up in the winds over Shea.  He has yet to throw a wild pitch or hit a batter, and gave up just 18 hits. If he can keep his focus, he should be able to continue to perform well.

Remeber like, a minute ago when I made fun of everyone who said the Mets pitchers were old and would fall apart?  Well, El Duque is old and fell apart.  He will miss at least one more start, but its probably safer to assume that it will be awhile. At his age his healing time will probably take longer. So lets just assume he's out of the picture.

Oliver Perez, the Mets man of mystery. At 3-2 we've seen both Ollies.  We saw him go seven innings and give up 1 run on five hits.  And we've seen him go less than 3 innings, walking seven.  The good news is that the evil Perez is showing improvement.  Today was the first start in which he issued a walk since his meltdown on April 11th.  He has gotten his strikeouts up, and has proven the ability to go long, throwing 120 pitches in a loss in his start at RFK.  The improved Perez so far has been decent, but chances are inside still lurks the bad Perez.  I'd expcet to see more meltdowns, but for a number 4 pitcher there's no complaints.  If he can win more than he can lose, and keep the score to something in which our offense can reach, then thats about what we can ask for. We might want to be a bit concerned that chances are Ollie is now our #3 pitcher. But given last year that was Trax, is it that worrisome? Trax too would have his poor days where everyone in a jersey that didn't say Mets seemed to be able to get a hit or a run.  But he ate innings while doing so. Aside from his one horrendous start, Ollie seems able to do that. If he can go 7 innings in a loss and keep the score down enough where we have a fighting chance, then he's better than most of our other options.

Mike Pelfrey: Pelf brings to mind Monty Python.  After his first few starts, the fans had him slung over their back with Omar bringing his cart.  But yesterday he called out and let us know, he's not dead yet.  Lets not sugarcoat it: his first three starts were bad. 12 earned runs bad. Just six strikeouts bad. He didn't seem to have control. He was overthrowing. And in none of those first three did he make it to the end of the 6th, his shortest start lasting just 3 innings.  The good side, he seems to be improving.  He had a shaky 1st inning yesterday, but then figured things out and was fine and went 6 and third, his longest start for the Mets this year. His bad first inning killed him though, giving him another loss (he's 0-3 with one no decision).  But he passed the 100 pitch mark for the first time, and he's young. He seems to be slowly adjusting to the big leagues, but slowly adjusting is better than not adjusting at all (I'm looking at you Chan Ho park).  Due to the injury bug's visit to Shea, chances are Pelf will get more time. Even if Duque is back after the minimum time on DL, they'll keep Pelf around till they're sure he can pitch.  Hopefully he'll see his first Met win soon though. Just remember, he doesn't need to be Tom Seaver or Pedro, he needs to be a decent fifth starter.  His role is to be able to give us a chance when he pitchers, as opposed to the ace who should be guaranteeing it. Previous people in his spot have been Jose Lima, and Victor Zambrano.

Chan Ho Park. I am not writing about Chan Ho Park, because I don't forsee him being a Met come the teams trip to Arizona at weeks end. I would assume, like everyone else out there that Jorge Sosa will be the next one to get the call. I know I have preached patience for Pelf in the past, but I don't have the same faith in Chan Ho. He was weak in AAA. He was weak in spring training. He was bad Monday at Shea. So insert your own joke involving his last name and where his pitches are hit.

A quick recap of tonights game for those of you still awake: Solo homerun from the new and improved Castro and one from Green, who went 2 for 2 tonight after struggling through most of spring training. Valentin returned after sitting due to a sore neck, supplying an RBI and a run (on an error by Cora). Milledge stole third, his third steal of the preseason, while Reyes was caught for the first time this year.

On to whats probably on most minds: Met pitching. Perez threw five scoreless innings as he continues to work his way to a rotation spot. He struck out 9 and gave up 3 hits, and its important to note those 9 strikeouts included Manny and Ortiz. Feliciano, Smith, and Schoeneweis each pitched a scoreless inning for a combined 5 strikeouts and one hit. Wagner struggled a little giving up the sole Sox run, but held on. A good sign for Perez who hopes to be a starter, and has less competition after Vargas and Humber were optioned earlier. If he can keep playing like this I wouldn't mind seeing him and Pelfry in the rotation, in the 4 and 5 spots.

Chan Ho Park is the betting man's favorite to secure the fifth starter job this spring, and he will have his another chance to secure that position today as he takes on the
Nationals.

Mike Pelfrey has pitched 5 innings this spring, giving up 2 runs which were both unearned, and gave up just 4 hits. If Pelfrey were to continue to perform at the level he has so far, is it out of the realm of possibility that he could find himself slottted into the rotation at fifth or higher?

Oliver Perez has been up and down, with 9 hits and 6 runs scored over 6 innings. Would the Mets be better off with a back end of Maine, Pelfrey and Park? Its still too early to tell, but Pelfrey is clearly making a case for himself so far.

The Mets experienced some losses this winter. They lost Chad
Bradford, he of the 1.16 WHIP, and the one home run allowed (one!) in 70
innings of work, to a three-year $10.5 million contract with the O’s. They lost
veterans Cliff Floyd and Steve Trachsel, allowing them to walk away. Although it’s
hard to argue with Mets management on these moves, I’ll miss reading Cliff’s
quotes, and I find it somewhat distressing that Tom Glavine has been a Met
longer than anyone else on the roster. (Pedro Feliciano was with the team in
2002, a year before Glavine arrived, but Feliciano spent 2005 in Japan
before re-joining us last year). Another loss occurred on the coaching staff,
when Manny Acta departed to manage the Washington Nationals. I normally don’t
spend a lot of time worrying about coaching changes, and at first this one was
no different. But then I read this article in the Washington Times. Compare
this quote from Acta: “We will run selectively. I think one of the things that
doomed this club last year is that they were first in caught stealing.” to this
one from Willie Randolph: “[Beltran] could steal 40-to-50 bases easy.”

Now I’m not knocking Willie, here. Carlos Beltran has
historically been one of the most effective base stealers in the game, with a
career stolen base percentage of 87.6%. That’s an astounding number, and if
Beltran can steal bases at that kind of clip it will be an enormous boon to our
offense. That said, Acta has the correct philosophy. The stolen base is only a
good play with an excellent basestealer. For example, assuming typical hitters
behind him and typical pitchers on the mound, a leadoff man on first base in
the home first inning needs about a 71% success rate to justify an attempted
steal of second. Half the teams in the National League had SB percentages lower
than 71% last season. In two years under Randolph,
the Mets have stolen bases at a truly remarkable 79.9% clip, second in the
majors (the Phillies were successful 80.0% of the time).

Part of me worries that Acta has been the one preaching
selective base stealing, and that Acta is the reason the Mets have done so well
in choosing the right times to run. Another, more rational part of me thinks
that Willie understands who should run and when, and that since the only real
base stealers we have are Jose Reyes and Beltran (and, to some extent, David Wright), we
should be fine. I just can’t help being paranoid when so many teams go so wrong
on the basepaths—so wrong that maybe they shouldn’t be attempting stolen bases
at all.

Ramblings:

-I don’t know if we’ll see a lot of doomsday predictions on
Oliver Perez following his 2 IP, 4ER outing today, but any such predictions are
not justified, in my opinion. First, his velocity clearly isn’t there yet, as
it typically is not there for any pitcher this early in the spring. Ollie
topped out in the high eighties today. We all know he has a mid-nineties
fastball when he’s full-strength, and that his fastball is one of his best
weapons. Second, Perez for the most part got hurt in the strike zone today. His
location wasn’t always perfect, but it was far from terrible. He threw more
than twice as many strikes as balls. For his first outing of the spring, I
think that’s a pretty good sign. In short, I wouldn’t read anything at all into
today’s start by Ollie. I still think he’s a big favorite to begin the season
in the rotation.

-It was the first game for everyone today, and that certainly
includes new third-base coach Sandy Alomar, Sr. On Julio Franco’s two-run
single in the eighth, Alomar stood still as a stone while Lastings Milledge approached
third base, even though it was immediately clear that Milledge had to be sent.
Not knowing what else to do, Milledge slowed down, and then decided on his own
to keep chugging along. Only after Milledge had rounded third and taken several
steps towards home did Alomar give a half-hearted “Go” signal. (Milledge ended
up scoring anyway.) The announcers, meanwhile, assigned almost all the blame on
Milledge, accusing him of not picking up the third-base coach. They never
realized there was nothing to pick up. Keith Hernandez finally did say that
hey, there was a new third-base coach out there and maybe that had something to
do with it. Also, it seemed to me that Gary Cohen et al were far too
results-oriented in analyzing Perez’s start. Every hard-hit ball he gave up was
“up in the zone” or a “hanger,” but his strikeout pitch, which clearly looked
like a hanger to me, was “down.” Ron Darling described a pitch that Curtis
Granderson ripped as “middle-middle.” I actually thought Perez got good
location on the inside corner on that pitch and that Granderson, a
good major league hitter, just turned on it. I love Cohen, Darling, and Hernandez in the
booth, but they’re definitely in preseason form right now.

-I found it an odd coincidence that two members of our last
World Series team were just traded for each other in the Atlantic League. Best
of luck to Edgardo Alfonzo and Pat Mahomes (but especially Fonzie) as they try
to work their way back to the bigs.

-Can someone explain to me how getting a major league
prospect to run around the bases qualifies as a practical joke? “Hey, this guy
is really good at this thing, so wouldn’t it be so funny if we get him to do
that thing he’s really good at? Then we’ll all have a hearty laugh!” When I
heard that Randolph
had played a practical joke on Carlos Gomez, I was thinking shaving cream, or some bubble gum, or at least a fat frog had to be involved somehow. I guess I’ll just never
understand jock culture.

The Mets signed post season savior Oliver Perez to a one-year contract worth $2,325,000 today, reports ESPN.com

Perez made $1.9 million last season. In addition to his salary
this year, he could earn $12,500 each for 15 and 25 starts, and
$25,000 each for 155, 165, 175, 185 and 195 innings.

Adam Rubin, who is over in Japan right now for the MLB All Star tour, spoke to Jim Allen, who covers baseball for The Daily Yomiuri. He posts audio of his interview with him discussing Daisuke Matsuzaka on his Daily News Mets Blog.

Rubin also posts an email he received from Brian Bannister, who is pitching in Mexico's winter league with Oliver Perez right now.

Baseball Think Factory has a really cool article today that uses animated pictures of Oliver Perez's delivery before he lost his velocity, after he lost his velocity and back to today where he has regained it under Rick Peterson's guidance.

Hat tip to Matt from Mets Blog for pointing out this excellent article.

After Pedro Martinez opens the series in Pittsburgh on Friday, Orlando Hernandez and John Maine will face the Pirates. At that point the Mets figure to drop a pitcher from the rotation, likely Oliver Perez or Dave Williams reports the New York Daily News.

Oliver Perez was simply outstanding, pitching a complete game shutout, giving up just five hits and walking one, striking out six to complete the Mets first doubleheader sweep since 2000 and their first doubleheader sweep over the Braves since 1988, which co-oncidentally is the last time the Mets won the NL East. It was Oliver's first win as a Met.

Shawn Green had six hits over the two games, including a 2 home runs, one in each game. Green had been struggling mightily since joining the Mets, with just 11 hits in 45 at bats, but he showed signs of getting into a groove today. Green mentioned after the game he has been working with Carlos Delgado who has known Shawn a long time and noticed some things he wasn't doing right with his swing. Jose Reyes hit his sixth lead off home run of the year, off the first pitch of the second game, his 17th of the year. His six leadoff homers are a Mets single-season record. He has eight leadoff home runs for his career. Reyes was 4-8 over the two games.

Dave Williams was nearly as impressive as Oliver, pitching six innings and giving up just one run on five hits, striking out three. Perhaps more impressive than Oliver's start is that Williams has delivered four consecutive strong outings. Feliciano, Mota and Wagner pitched a scoreless seventh, eighth, and ninth. Wagner closed it out to earn his 35th save.

Cliff Floyd looked spry, making a nice sliding catch in the second game, without an ounce of hesitation before or pain after the play.

Footnote….I knew I would do it eventually, i've got a mental block with Darren Oliver and Oliver Perez, originally this post had me posting the wrong Oliver.