Last season, I watched Opening Day from Row U of the Upper Deck of Shea Stadium. This year, having advanced in age, I decided to watch Opening Day from the comforts of the couch in my rec room. Each method of game-watching has its advantages. As it turns out, I’m very glad I didn’t have to wait for the 7 train amongst a mass of angry fans after the disaster that took place out on the field yesterday.

Before I get into the negatives from the game (and of course, there were plenty), let me mention two very small positives to take away. I enjoyed the cut of the outfield grass. I can’t remember seeing Shea in that particular triangle pattern before, and the contrast in greens really showed up well on the broadcast. Our stadium looked as good as it can in its final opener.

Also, I was weirdly happy for the home plate umpire, veteran Doug Eddings. Eddings has had his share of hard times (see his indecisive umpiring in Game Two of the 2005 ALCS for the most obvious example), but maybe those hard times forced him to perfect his craft. I think I agreed with every one of his ball and strike calls—and I never agree with the home plate umpire on balls and strikes. Not only that, Eddings was clear, immediately declaring “ball outside” or “ball low” as soon as the pitch hit the catcher’s mitt. He’s come full circle from his own Buckneresque moment of a few years’ back. If we get quality umpiring like this all season, I’ll have that much less heartburn.

Unfortunately, neither of these positives has anything to do with the quality of our baseball team, but I think right now we should take whatever victories we can get.

The game itself started to go bad for us when Oliver Perez walked the 45-year-old opposing pitcher who was trying to sacrifice bunt. It continued to go bad when every other one of our pitchers continued to walk everyone else. Met pitchers had seven walks yesterday against two strikeouts. That’s just not going to get it done against a good team.

Then, of course, we have the glaringly obvious problems with our team that were on full display in the home opener. 1) Our manager doesn’t know how to use his bullpen. Many of us have been saying it over and over—Scott Schoeneweis should never face a righty. And yet Willie Randolph had Show in there against two righties yesterday. Unfortunately, I don’t expect this to change. Show faced more righties than lefties last year. Utterly ridiculous. 2) Carlos Delgado is not good at playing first base. His lack of defense was much less of a problem when he was hitting 38 home runs. Now that those days are past him, it’s clear we’re going to get well-below-average production from the first base position this year, much as we did last year. 3) Many of our guys are old. Case in point, 32-year-old Luis Castillo pulls himself out of the game (presumably because it was too cold out), and he is replaced by someone six years older. A lot of our regulars are teetering on the brink of the DL all the time, and we’ll have to deal with it all season long. 4) We’re just not that good, especially without Pedro Martinez. I’m sorry, but it’s true. Over our last 162 games, we are now 86-76. Even if Johan Santana adds five wins to our total (and that’s a monster number for one player to add, considering that he’s replacing a serviceable major league pitcher in Glavine), that makes us a 91-win team. Ninety-one wins would be all fine and good, but it’s foolish to think we’re an elite team who can threaten 95 or 100 wins. We’re a decent team, but certainly a flawed team, at least for now—and we’re going to need some things to go right to beat out the Braves and Phillies for the division title.

But there is always hope. Today, hope comes in the form of our beleaguered starter Mike Pelfrey. I think I speak for all of us when I say Go Big Pelf! Let’s put the seven walks, one error, and two passed balls behind us and let’s actually enjoy baseball tonight. Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets clobbered the Marlins tonight and took the rubber game of the opening three game set in Miami. Oliver Perez (1-0) got the win for the Mets. Andrew Miller (0-1) took the loss for the Fish. For a full recap, head to MLB.com.

What more can you say about Perez? Having just gotten the news Pedro would be down for 4-6 weeks, He silenced all doubters for now with his six inning shutout performance. He allowed five hits and struck out eight along the way.

Everyone was hitting tonight, from Reyes to Schneider. The biggest boppers of all were Wright and Beltran. Beltran went 3-4 with two runs scored and an RBI, but was robbed of a home run after the umpires huddled together to decide whether Beltran’s ball hit above the yellow line in the right field bleachers. It was overturned after originally being called a homer. Wright went 3-5 with three rbis and deposited his first home run deep into the left field bleachers.

Billy Wagner, Nelson Figueroa, and Pedro Feliciano all made their season debuts and pitched scoreless innings.

The Mets are off tomorrow, but continue their season on Friday. The projected pitchers are John Maine for the Mets and Tim Hudson for the Braves. It will be Maine’s first start of the season. Hudson will be making his second start after allowing one run on six innings in his season debut last Sunday.

Well, I had wanted a 12-1 victory before the game, but 13-0 suits me fine….

A few notes from Willie Randolph’s weekly Mike and The Mad Dog call…

• Nelson Figueroa is on standby and Willie indicated that he would likely take Pedro Martinez’s place if he is DL’ed which Willie also said is most likely.
• Oliver Perez should be the home opener starter the way things are lining up.
• With off-days they may be able to get through without needing to replace Pedro, but Figueroa is the likely starter if they do need one.
• On Oliver Perez : “I thought he had a decent spring. He had some issues with his arm slot at times. I think Ollie is oblivious from everything that goes around him”
• Willie considered putting Raul Casanova in tonight for Ryan Schneider to give him some rest but Schneider talked him out of it.
• Said Ryan Church needs to show him more from a left-handed standpoint, but he has a “beautiful” swing and just needs to get into a “nice little rhythm”
• Mike Pelfrey was “lights out” in the bullpen but has to transfer that to the game. “I think this kid is gonna be fine. His sinker is so powerful. I think this kid is gonna win some games for us”
• On John Maine : “When you look at John you can see him coming into his own. He was in the best shape of anyone in camp. He is starting to really feel himself. He got a little swagger going.”
• On last nights game : “I keep telling our guys to stay through the middle and taking small bites. Be patient. Last night we had that kid on the ropes but we took some overaggressive hacks”
• On Ruben Gotay and Brady Clark : “Gotay really is one dimensional. Gotay doesn’t play the outfield, he doesn’t play the corners. I like Gotay a lot but he didn’t fit into this team. I think Clark right now is a better bat off the bench. Clark can get on base, he can walk, he will scrap and battle. With the left handed dominance in our line up we need a Clark in there to give us an at bat.”
• On the bullpen : “A guy who could be a sleeper for us, even though he gave up the home run last night is Wise, he has a great change up, maybe the best on our staff. He struck two guys out and then he hung a change up there. Sanchez coming back, getting him in the loop is gonna help. I think he will be back towards the end of April.”
• On the Marlins : “We need to get some payback on some people and this is one of the teams.”
• On carrying “The Collapse” : “No, I put my finger on the pulse of this team early on. Everyone let it go, spring training. We understand where we been but we don’t dwell on it. We got some serious payback coming. They know what they have to do and they want to rectify it this year”

The Mets make their only trip this spring to Orlando to take on the Atlanta Braves. Making his final spring start for the Mets will be Oliver Perez. Starting for the Braves is reliever Peter Moylan. The game is being shown on ESPN and can be seen on MLB.tv.

So, the Braves don’t even want us to see a starter, a reliever.

Lineup:

• CF Chavez
• 2B Easley
• LF Pagan
• 1B M. Anderson
• 3B Tatis
• DH Church
• C Casanova
• RF Clark
• SS Machado

Only 2 regulars here, Church and Pagan..

As always, head on over to The Hot Foot Bleachers to talk Mets baseball.

Perhaps resident Foot Boss can predict the future, as he seems to in his previous post.

John Delcos on his blog for the Journal News reports that Willie Randolph has announced a four man rotation: Johan, Pedro, Ollie, Maine.

According to Delcos, Randolph feels no one has yet earned that final spot, though Adam Rubin, who writes on his blog for the New York Daily News, that the team plans to activate one of them by the fifth game, giving them extra time to figure it all out.

Update: Adam Rubin cites a Mets official who suggested activating the fifth starter Game 5 doesn’t seem realistic, suggesting that five starting pitchers and a five-man bench will be announced at some point before Opening Day.

I for one, continue to throw my hat into the ring. For $50,000 and a blue batting practice jersey, autographed, of my choice, I will pitch for the Mets. I can’t be too much worse than Duq, and much less money. Throw in some carvel in a plastic Mets hat, and I’ll knock more off my fee. Who am I kidding, I’ll pitch for just the jersey and maybe some seats for once I’m fired for being about as effective as if Jose Lima and Anthony Young had a baby.

The only real surprise, to me at least, is that Maine is below Ollie in the rotation. Ollie on his game, definately better. But I think I’d take Maine on a bad day over one of Ollie’s infamous bad games anyday.

For ESPN.com, Christopher Harris takes a look at 30 burning questions, one for each team.

For the Mets he asks, “What can we expect from the Mets’ rotation behind Johan Santana?”

Harris takes a look at Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Orlando Hernandez and Mike Pelfrey, writing a paragraph each about their situation and their potential outlook.

Amusingly, he writes about El Duque:

What can you say about El Duque that wasn’t written in the Magna Carta? The dude is old. If he’s 38, George Burns is 65 and playing the Catskills.

Yes, he’s old. Yes, Alou is old.  But I guess we deserve the old jokes after giving two starting jobs to people who in their wallet have pictures of Marilyn Monroe, some used floss and an AARP card that is set to expire in June. 

I just don’t know why everybody is bashing Pelfrey so much. Yes he struggled last year, to the tune of starting the year 0-7 but still.  But, he has a great sinking fastball, and with time his secondary pitches will improve.  Let’s not forget he showed promise at the end of last year.  He was 3-1 in September, with wins against the Nationals, Braves and Astros.  Plus he can bring some youth to the club.  Sure, Alou and Duque might complain about that new school hip-hop jibber jabber that’s playing in the background, but they’ll be gone soon. 

Beyond this rant, it’s a decent read if you’re a fantasy baseball junkie.

The Mets travel to Viera to play the Washington Nationals in game 21 of spring training play. Pitching for the Mets will be Oliver Perez. Unfortunately, the game will not be shown on SNY. Lineups courtesy of John Delcos at his blog.

Lineup:

• SS Reyes
• CF Chavez
• 3B Wright
• 2B Easley
• 1B Tatis
• DH Church
• C Casanova
• RF Fernando Martinez
• LF Clark

As always, head on over to The Hot Foot Bleachers to chat during the game.

For Fox Sports, Ken Rosenthal writes about how Pedro Martinez’s return this year will translate into a competitive on the field and off the field edge. 

He writes:

A healthy, effective Martinez would benefit the Mets not only competitively, but also psychologically. Left-hander Oliver Perez leans so heavily on Martinez, he asked him to call pitches during a postseason game in ‘06. Martinez also could push a position player such as shortstop Jose Reyes, a fellow Dominican whose late-season funk contributed to the Mets’ collapse.

It’s great that Ken points this out, because it aggravates me when people say Pedro won’t contribute much this year because of his age and injury history.  First of all I think on the field he will contribute, whether or not he can throw more than 7 innings.  But off the field, he’ll be able to get the most out of Perez, Reyes etc.  That’s probably just as important as what he’ll do every 5th day when he toes the rubber.

Jon Heyman of SI.com reports Oliver Perez has won his arbitration hearing and will earn $6.5 million in 2008 which countered the Mets offer of $4.7 Million.

Perez made $2.3 million and went 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA in 2007

Single: Head over to ESPN.com, Sportsline.com, and Yahoo! for some great fantasy baseball prep. 

I already had my draft, and let me tell you starting pitchers are thin.  Makes me more and more thankful that we have four really solid guys in Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, John Maine and Oliver Perez.

Double: At the Journal News, John Delcos quotes Moises Alou as saying, “I’d love to get over 500 at-bats. If I do that I can have a great season. And, if I do that the team can have a great season.” 

The last time he had over 500 at-bats was in 2004 when he had 601 for the Cubs.  He’s only had over 500 at-bats three times in the last eight years.  While I’d love to see Alou step into the batters box 500 times this year, I just don’t see it happening.  Willie has to almost treat him like a catcher, rest him most day games after night games, etc.  Let’s be realistic, he’s 41 and was consistently hurt in his mid 30’s.  I think he can get close to that number if Willie rests him properly.  Most sundays he should send Alou for a day-off, tell him to go see a movie.  He’d probably enjoy one, seeing how movies are in color now. 

Triple: According to Newsday, Jose Reyes plans on cutting down on his antics this year such as his clubhouse dancing and celebratory handshakes.  Tuesday Reyes said, “No more handshakes. People kept saying we got teams fired up when we did those handshakes, so now I want to focus more on baseball.” 

Sometimes they seem a bit too choreographed but really, he didn’t bat .205 in September because he slapped Carlos Delgado’s hand a few times before he entered the dugout.  Sometimes most people–including me–often take this game like its a religion of some sort.  Baseball is a game, a sport, a very important and intense one at that.  And we in fact are hypocritical when we look down on these players for demanding too much money and treating it like a job. I know I’ve thought they should  be thankful that they have the privilege to play baseball for a living.  So yeah, let them enjoy it, make sure they know its not a job.  Jose should slap hands bump fists elbows and feet when he hits a homerun.  

Home Run: The usually quiet-mannered Carlos Beltran recently said, “So this year, to Jimmy Rollins — we are the team to beat!” After he proclaimed a division title last year, Phillies’ SS Jimmy Rollins responded, “Has anyone heard of plagiarism?”  In an interview for 950 ESPN radio, ESPN senior baseball analyst Jayson Stark discussed how there were people in the Phillies locker room suggesting there would be a brawl. 

This hatred between the two teams really has just blossomed over the last few years, since both teams have been good.  The rivalry really spiked with Rollins’ prediction of the division crown last year, and the Mets collapse allowing his seemingly absurd prophecy to be true.  What’s still humorous though, is that I still don’t see them as our biggest rival.  Even though there has been all this tension and hatred lately, the Braves have been our rival for so long and probably again will contend for the NL East Title as well as the wildcard.  To me, the Phillies are a grumpy third wheel that just desperately wants some attention.  Really, we won as many playoffs games as they did last year. 

Baseball Prospectus has once again made its painstakingly-considered PECOTA projections for the new baseball season. Happily, the Mets are projected to finish first in the NL East by ten games. Based on this projection, some might even consider us “the team to beat.” (Hah!)

Last year I made my own predictions for each hitter’s OPS and each pitcher’s ERA and tracked my progress against BP’s throughout the season. In the end, BP came closer on nine of the 16 players for which I made my guesses, but at least I put up a respectable fight.

While we’re at it, let’s look at some other things I said in columns at various points last year.

“I expect us to be in the top three (in the NL) in runs allowed.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG. Six freakin’ teams (the Padres, Cubs, Giants, Dodgers, DBacks, and Braves) all alowed fewer runs than we did.

“I expect to be in the top three (in the NL) in runs scored.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG. We finished fourth behind the Phillies, Rockies, and Braves. You could argue that we had a top-three offense and that the Phillies and Rockies were benefited by hitter’s parks, but I specifically predicted runs scored.

“I expect us to win a lot of games–more than 90.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG.

“I expect Mike Pelfrey to have a fantastic year.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG.

“I expect Lastings Milledge to play the bulk of the innings for us in rightfield.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG. Man, that one still hurts.

“I expect Paul Lo Duca to have a down year.” (March 13, 2007)
RIGHT. In poker, we say even a blind squirrel can sometimes find a nut.

“I expect Carlos Delgado, who quietly played hurt most of last season, to have a big year.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG.

“I expect Jose Valentin to fall off considerably.” (March 13, 2007)
RIGHT.

“I expect Jonathan Adkins to prove more valuable than anyone thinks he will be.” (March 13, 2007)
WRONG. Boy, why did I ever think that Omar Minaya might’ve traded Heath Bell and Royce Ring for somebody halfway decent?

On projecting Jose Reyes - “This is one where I’m quite confident I’m going to beat the staff of Baseball Prospectus.” (April 23, 2007)
WRONG. As we all know, Jose got off to a torrid start, only to be mired in a second-half slump that eventually dropped his season-long OPS to a mere 775. I had predicted 890. BP had predicted 766 (these guys are good).

“David Wright is not going to hit the 29 home runs that BP projected” (April 23, 2007)
WRONG. Hey, he hadn’t even hit one at the time I wrote that!

“I have a lot of confidence in Aaron Heilman, and predict that he will end the season with a lower ERA than he has now (3.07).” (May 10, 2007)
RIGHT. He ended with 3.03. Phew.

OK, so I was wrong about a lot of things Mets last year. The only good news is, if you look at the stuff everyone else was writing, I wasn’t the only one. So why, then, would I keep making predictions about stuff when it seems pretty clear I don’t know what I’m talking about? Answer: because it’s fun.

I’m not quite ready to make this year’s predictions just yet, but I do want to post some leanings I have about BP’s new numbers.

David Wright: OVER 21 SB. BP projects David to steal 13 fewer bases than last year, and I just don’t see it. He was successful on 87 percent of his attempts last year, and he’s still young. There’s no reason for him not to steal.

Moises Alou: UNDER 406 Plate Appearances. He didn’t have that many last year or the year before, and he turns 42 in July.

Ramon Castro: OVER 256 Plate Appearances. God willing.

Johan Santana: UNDER 2.94 ERA. I read about this guy somewhere. They said that in 16 career starts against NL teams, he has a 2.16 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. Also, apparently fewer than half of those games were played in Shea Stadium.

Oliver Perez: UNDER 4.22 ERA. He posted a 3.56 last year, though he gave up 20 unearned runs, which is never a good sign. Still, I see Ollie improving, not regressing, and would be very surprised if he doesn’t beat his 4.22 projection in 2008.

Scott Schoeneweis: OVER 4.05 ERA. I have no confidence that Willie Randolph will use him correctly (i.e., he’ll put him in against more than zero righties), and therefore predict doom for his ERA.

That’s all I’ve got for now. Fuller predictions coming soon. Enjoy spring training!

Newsday is reporting that the Mets and LHP Oliver Perez have not been able to reach an agreement on a contract, and are headed to an arbitration hearing on February 21st. Perez asked for 6.5m and the Mets countered with an offer of 4.725m.

If this does indeed happen, it will be the Mets first arbitration hearing in 16 years.

According to SI.com, the New York Mets have agreed to a one-year, $2 million deal with outfielder Ryan Church.

Church, 29, was traded to the Mets along with catcher Brian Schneider in return for OF Lastings Milledge. He batted .272 with 15 homers, 70 RBIs and 43 doubles in 2007.

He can earn an additional $120,000 in performances bonuses: $50,000 for 450 plate appearances; $40,000 for 535 plate appearances and $30,000 for 550 plate appearances.

The Mets lone player remaining in arbitration is starting pitcher Oliver Perez.

MLB Trade Rumors writes regarding Oliver Perez

Oliver Perez (27) - Think he’s going to get a lot of attention next December? He just needs to replicate his 2007 season to earn himself a good $16MM per year. No joke. Earned only $2.3 mil in ‘07, too. Could be an expensive consolation prize for teams that miss out on Sabathia.

Perez and the Mets are roughly $1.75 million apart in their arbitration offers. The Mets offered $4.725, while Perez is seeking $6.5

As Matthew Artus writes on Always Amazin’, the Mets should be careful to upset Ollie in his walk year.

Arbitration hearings can damage a relationship between a player and the team - as they’re directly arguing over a player’s pay and an independent arbiter chooses one offer or the other. So, if this should sour quickly, the Mets may find themselves with an unhappy starter in the walk year of his contract.

The Mets, however, have a good track record of avoiding arbitration. The last time they went to arbitration was in 1992, with David Cone.