Single: According to ESPN.com, the Mets were on the verge of giving a job to Brian McNamee prior to this season, as Willie Randolph and former Mets hitting coach Rick Down worked with McNamee while they were with the Yankees.  However due to McNamee’s reputation, Omar Minaya vetoed his hiring.

There was a time, around a month ago, when I still doubted Omar Minaya. I think he doomed us for collapse last year by preparing us with inadequate pitching.  I doubted him this offseason when it seemed more and more day by day like we wouldn’t acquire an ace.  However, he stole Johan Santana from the Twins, by out waiting a rookie GM.  And now, he had the incredible foresight and judgement to know hiring this sleezeball would be a bad idea. Major props there Omar, you have my trust. 

Double: According to the New York Post, former Mets’ OF Shawn Green has retired.  The former Met, Diamondback, Dodger and Blue Jay hit 328 career HRs, while having four seasons with 100 or more RBIs.  According to baseball-reference, Green earned over $100 million during his career.

I think he was a nice fit in RF last year, despite his declining mobility in the field.  I think he responded well to days off, and should’ve been platooned a bit more with Lastings Milledge.  At least he’s got a nice retirement fund going.  

Triple: This week we had a round of Lastings Milledge smack talk.  He said, “I can’t go through anything worse than I went through in New York. It only gets better from here.”

Jeez, I questioned the trade at first, but good riddance.  Welcome Ryan Church.  C’mon Lastings, show a little bit of class.  You wonder why you were bounced out of town? Grow up, trades happen and this explains why this trade involved you.    

Home Run: With spring training underway, the Mets have already lost to the Tigers 4-2 and the Cardinals 7-0.  They also tied the University of Michigan, Fred Wilpon’s alma mater, 4-4.

Oh no, still winless! The collapse lives on! Yeah, we lost, but it’s spring training.  But there are some nice things to pick out.  Mike Pelfrey pitched two scoreless innings, allowing only one hit.  Pelfrey wasn’t facing scrubs either, he faced a lineup with Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez and Curtis Granderson among other great hitters that the Tigers have.  Other nice facts include that teenage phenom Fernando Martinez has hits in both games against the Tigers and Cardinals.     

Bart Hubbich at the New York Post relays word that Mike Pelfrey has been impressive early in camp. Orlando Hernandez and his struggles to stay healthy may give the young right hander a leg up on the fifth starter role.

With the way Mike Pelfrey is throwing so far (terrific, by all accounts, with good movement his fastball), don’t be surprised if Pelfrey – not El Duque – comes out of spring training as the Mets’ No. 5 starter.

Pelfrey was praised by Mets owner Fred Wilpon during a bullpen session recently who told him he looked more confident and was hitting his spots better than usual.

Pelfrey will make his first Spring Training start against Detroit on Wednesday.

Considering Duque’s durability issues, he might be better off in the bullpen to start the season, while giving Pelfrey the fifth spot. The Mets don’t see Pelfrey as a reliever and if he was to fail to make the rotation, he’d be better off pitching full games in the minors anyway.

Lets hope Pelf has turned the corner. He had an outstanding game in Atlanta last year, thats the kind of performance he needs to display with more frequency.

Over the next week, I’ll be breaking down the things that have to go right for the Mets this year if they want to make the playoffs.

So far, I’ve discussed Maine and Perez, Pedro’s Arm, and the Bullpen.

Note: All of this is done assuming we do not make any significant acquisitions of any sort, be it through trade or a free agent signing.

Today, I’ll be discussing the 5th spot in the rotation.

Assuming no trades are made, the first four spots in the rotation will likely go to Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez and Orlando Hernandez.

Now, lets take a look at that 5th spot.

The favorite: Mike Pelfrey.

Last year, Pelfrey struggled mightily as a starter for the Mets. In 13 starts, he was 3-8 with a 5.58 ERA in 69.1 innings of duty. Even more troubling, was the fact that he allowed 36 walks compared to only 43 strikeouts.

Lets take a closer look at his year last year. After making the rotation after a solid spring training, Pelfrey quickly found himself at 0-5, and playing for the AAA Zephyrs. After getting called back up in July, Pelfrey found himself at 0-7. He then got demoted again.

However, Pelfrey showed lots of promise when the rosters got expanded in September, and he was brought back up. And keep in mind, September was a month when there were few bright spots for the Mets. On September 1st, Pelfrey threw 6 innings of one-hit ball, while striking out 7, to beat the Braves and register his 1st win of the season. He then won his next start against Houston, and recorded a 3rd victory of the month (and season) against the Nats later that month. However, he did lose one game on the 28th to the Nats, which would prove to be crucial.

Everybody knows how Pelfrey has an incredible sinking fastball that ranges in the mid-90’s. However, people doubt the quality of his secondary pitches. However, if Pelfrey can command his fastball enough and avoid walks, he can succeed on the major league level as he proved in September.

Next Guy Up: Phillip Humber

Humber was a college star at Rice, and was in their rotation as a freshman. The Mets took him with the 3rd pick in the draft, and after a long wait, gave him a $3.7 million signing bonus. However, in 2005 Humber hurt his elbow, resulting in Tommy John Surgery.

Since then, Humber has pitched in the minors and a couple brief stints in the Majors, however has not had the endurance to really prove himself. He got off to quick starts in most of his games, but fatigued down the stretch. Most people who get Tommy John Surgery need two years to regain their endurance, so look for him to have a strong rebounding season this year, should he get the opportunity in the big leagues.

The Dark Horse: Kevin Mulvey

Mulvey is known for having good composure. He features a fastball that sits in the high 80’s and low 90’s, which also has good sink. Look for him to surprise during spring training. Although it is such a small window to preview a pitcher, people have come out of no where and earned rotation spots for the Mets in previous years, like Brian Bannister. Look for him to really put the pressure on Pelfrey and Humber during spring training, to make sure they know if they mess up, he’ll be in AAA waiting to take their spot on the big club.

Now, what do the Mets need from this 5th starter spot?

Realistically, you can’t expect too much from your last spot in the rotation. However, when you’re putting a young gun in there like Pelfrey, Humber of Mulvey, they have the potential to surprise. While that is great, they have to be consistent. They can’t be going out there every 5th day blowing games early, and not giving the team a chance to win. They also can’t get out of games to early, and kill our bullpen. Whoever earns that spot, needs to go out there, not shoot to ‘wow’ people but aim to give the Mets lineup a chance to win.

Gerry Fraley at The Sporting News ranks the starting rotations in the National League and puts the Mets 9th overall out of the 16 teams.

9. Mets: RHP Pedro Martinez, RHP John Maine, LHP Oliver Perez, RHP Orlando Hernandez, RHP Mike Pelfrey.

Martinez and Hernandez are nearing the end. Maine and Pelfrey are still learning. Perez can be very good or very bad. His frequent walks lull fielders to sleep

The Diamondbacks, Padres, and Dodgers rank 1-2-3.

I wouldn’t lump Maine in with Pelfrey at all, thats a really poor job there, however I have to agree that among the rest of the rotations in the NL, the Mets are middle of the pack. Pedro has to show he can throw a full season, El Duque is almost guaranteed to go on the DL at some point, and Pelfrey is a big fat question mark. Maine and Perez to me are the only next to sure things.

Sean Deveney in The Sporting News believes the Mets will likely enter spring training with 8 to 9 pitchers vying for a spot in the starting rotation.

Its the Mets version of American Idol. Three or four of the spots will be locked up, by Pedro, Maine, Perez, and most likely El Duque. That leaves Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and three yet to be determined contestants to vie for the final spot in the top five.

That is of course unless Omar shocks the world and lands the biggest prize of this offseason. Stay tuned, but don’t hold your breath.

Well, that flew by quickly.

Taking a glance at the calendar, pitchers and catchers report in 45 days and we are a mere 57 days from the first Spring Training game, on February 26th against the University of Michigan.

Looking back at this off season so far, the Mets have made four significant changes.

The first is the loss of Tom Glavine. Glavine’s return to Atlanta will have a large effect on the Mets starting rotation. Currently he is replaced internally by placing Mike Pelfrey to the back of the rotation and moving everyone else, John Maine, Oliver Perez and Orlando Hernandez, up a slot with Pedro Martinez up top but with 2 months left, Omar may still look to add a pitcher via trade or free agency.

Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon have been mentioned recently as possible targets. Colon has received positive reviews of his performance in the Dominican Winter League. Omar Minaya famously moved mountains to get Colon while GM of the Expos. Garcia will not likely be ready to pitch until June. Interest in Kyle Lohse, Livan Hernandez, and Joe Blanton has cooled. The Mets remain a dark horse in the Johan Santana sweepstakes, but could surprise many as the Red Sox and Yankees appear involved only to ensure neither of them wins the rights to his services.

The second major change is replacing Paul Lo Duca with Brian Schneider. Lo Duca’s offense has regressed but he’s still a better hitter than Schneider. The upside with Schneider is his defense and ability to manage a pitching staff. It remains to be seen if this element will make up for his hitting deficiencies.

The third major change is the addition of Ryan Church in right field. Church should be an upgrade offensively for the Mets in right. He hits a ton of doubles, has decent power and he’s a proficient defensive outfielder.

Pedro, Maine and Perez make for a solid top end, but the Mets have question marks at the back end of their rotation. Mike Pelfrey has yet to prove he can be a productive major league pitcher, and will have much to prove to those who question his abilities. Orlando Hernandez has been outstanding when he is healthy, but his age and his fragility are a big concern.

The fourth change is in the bullpen. The Mets have sent Guillermo Mota packing, to the delight of pretty much all Mets fans, and will hopefully see Duaner Sanchez finally return. The Mets also added Matt Wise who was quite good until he struck Reds infielder Pedro Lopez in the face with a pitch. Wise apparently was shaken by the incident and his performance suffered, posting a 10.45 ERA in his final 16 outings. He brings an excellent K/BB ratio and a decent 6th inning arm to add to the Mets bullpen depth.

The Mets still have an outside change of landing Johan Santana. If Omar can pull that off, the Mets will have quite a formidable roster entering the 2008 campaign.

It seems to me, that the Mets fan base is in favor of doing whatever it takes to land Johan Santana. At MetsBlog yesterday, Matthew Cerrone discussed potential trades and ultimately concludes that he’d pull the trigger on a deal for Johan Santana, which would give up 4 pitching prospects, probably Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra in addition to Carlos Gomez.

Earlier today, Anthony posted his case for unloading the farm for Mr. Santana.

I’m here to convince you otherwise.

By trading four pitching prospects, plus the very ‘toolsy’ Carlos Gomez for Johan, its essentially mortgaging most of our farm system in favor of winning right now, as well as mortgaging all of our financial flexibility because we’d have to sign Johan to the 7 year deal he seeks, hovering arounds $20 million a year.

We’re all crying for “Freddy Coupon” to open up the wallet for Johan now, and we’ll be set. So we trade for him, but then we want a new LF after Alou is gone, but wait, we’ve given up our financial flexibility on Johan. But it’s a double whammy. Having less financial wiggle room would be OK—if you had people in the farm system who could be used as replacements. However, those players who could be useful at the Major League level anytime soon will then be a part of the Minnesota Twins organization.

So what would we be getting with Johan?

He’ll be 29 when the season starts. Granted we’ll probably get a few years of very solid production out of him, but there are so many variables that can come into play with a pitcher, mainly injuries. There is always the possibility he tears his rotator cuff, a ligament in his elbow and requires serious, career threatening surgery. That leaves us with millions of dollars on the table that handcuff our franchise for years. Even less daunting, is the chance he develops minor injuries as he ages such as recurrent hamstring problems that allow him to make only 25 starts a year. He could even age poorly and we’re stuck with an expensive, unproductive pitcher for a couple years. Injury concerns may seem far fetched, but pitchers’ injuries are so unpredictable and unreliable, and I’m not comfortable investing that much talent and money in a guy that only plays every fifth day.

Injuries aside, he has a 4.41 post season ERA, so we can be sure he’ll carry us to that postseason title. (heavy sarcasm)

Should we lock up Oliver Perez long term, after this following season we’ll only have two shoe-ins for our rotation in 2009: Perez and John Maine. By trading for Johan, we have a third mainstay in our rotation for years to come, but we have to look elsewhere for starters four and five. Our system will be depleted, and our wallet will be emptied into the hands of Johan Santana, so we’ll likely be left with unfortunate options as our fourth and fifth starters.

We don’t know what type of careers Mulvey, Pelfrey, Humber and Guerra will have. Guerra is 18 and everybody seems to rave about him. Everybody seems to really like Mulvey too. However, people seem to be down on Pelfrey and Humber. Humber is still recovering from Tommy John Surgery, and if you look at the numbers, starters bounce back two years after surgery. Best example: Chris Carpenter. Let Humber regain arm strength and we’ll see what comes from that. People express concern over Pelfrey’s lack of a second pitch, but I’ll take a 6′7″ 23 year old with a mid 90 mph sinker any day. It would be a grand mistake to sell low on a prospect, as we would be doing with Pelfrey and Humber.

The way things are looking now, unless either the Twins or Red Sox cave on their demands its very possible Johan will be a free agent next year. Do we not have the patience to wait a year and save the five top prospects we’d be losing?

In addition to Santana, C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Brad Penny can all become free agents next year. Save five prospects to have one season’s patience. If everybody is so gung-ho about being impatient and demanding to win now, why was everybody in such an uproar when Milledge was traded?

Beyond the four top pitchers we could lose, Carlos Gomez is faster than Jose Reyes–according to Reyes. He’s less developed at the plate and plays a less important position, but you can’t teach being tall and you can’t teach being fast. Alou is presumably gone after this year, and Church is solid but not a long term answer. Gomez would be great to groom for 2009 and Church could hold the fort until Fernando Martinez is ready.

We can sign somebody such as Bartolo Colon or Freddy Garcia to fill in this year, and next year pounce on the strong pitcher market.

In summation:

• We’d be investing all of our financial flexibility in one player, and that player only plays every fifth day.
• Its very possible we’d be able to go after him in free agency after this season, and we’d be sacrificing five top prospects in order to get one extra year of Johan.
• While they probably will never be as good as Mr. Santana, we have yet to see what our prospects can do and we’d be selling low on Pelfrey and Humber despite the facts we have reason to have a positive outlook for them.
• Gomez has speed that comes along once in a long time, and it’d be disappointing to see him develop into a star so far away from us, especially because we have a hole in the OF opening up next year.

I’m all in favor of trading for Santana. But four pitching prospects plus Gomez? No thank you. Take out one of the pitchers, and leave us with something to work with, I’ll probably bite. But all those prospects is just taking our chips and pushing them all in on this hand (this year) something we feel pressured to do after The Collapse, but in truth–by not making this trade we might be less likely to win this year, but we can maximize our winning over the next ten years.

Hot Foot is going to present both sides of the debate as to if the Mets should meet the reported demands of the Twins to offer either Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez along with three pitching prospects or one of Gomez or Martinez and four pitching prospects for Johan Santana. I will be presenting the case for, and later today Andrew Beaton will present the case against.

I want to preface my case by saying I have a sneaking suspicision that the Mets are simply trying to make it seem like they’re making an effort to appease fans, but don’t want to make the commitment in money or prospects it would take to land Santana. My other suspicion is that the reason the Mets reportedly declined the deal was because they believe the Twins will simply take the offer to the Yankees and Red Sox and use it as leverage. The only way the Mets can make this offer is if the Twins are forced to take it or leave it.

If the Mets can have them meet this demand, I believe the Mets should make the deal. While they would be giving up pretty much every top prospect in their system, if any of these players were to meet their potential the Mets would still likely come up on the better end of this deal. The chances of any of them becoming as good as Johan Santana are remote at best.

The other consideration is that the Mets have two high picks in the upcoming draft, one of them the 18th overall pick, which will quickly replenish their system, along with Omar Minaya’s declaration that the Mets will seriously consider not going by the MLB guidance to not pay above slot. The Mets have been good citizens while teams like the Yankees have scooped up players like Philip Hughes and Joba Chamberlain by paying for players other teams passed on to appease the Commissioner.

You cannot be paralyzed with the fear that a player you trade for could get injured. Any player could get injured. If you operated under this kind of neuroticism, you would never make any deal.

The other argument against is the money you would have to devote to Santana. I believe Santana will eventually sign for between $21 to $22 million a year for 6 years. He is likely more interested in the years than getting more money per year.

The Mets have all sorts of new revenue streams, a new stadium, a new television network, and $20 million a year from Citi for naming rights, which pays for most of Santana’s contract. I don’t believe this deal would seriously affect their ability to make other deals in the future.

The Mets problem with pitching started with the rotation not holding down their end of the bargain enough and left the bullpen overworked and out of gas by the time the Mets truly needed them in the final two months of the season. Santana would bring much needed stability and provide a bona fide young proven ace for the foreseeable future to go along with a powerful core of Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Maine and Perez.

Missing out on opportunities to get the top value for your prospects is as foolish as holding onto them and never benefiting from what they can do for your long and short term goals. Much like holding onto a hot Wall Street stock too long only to watch it drop to the floor, one must get optimal returns on their investments.

The Mets traded Lastings Milledge at the lowest point of his value. That my friends is what I would describe as a very poor business decision. What I am advocating here is that the Mets deal their prospects for optimal value. I can’t think of a better pay off on their prospect portfolio than to acquire the best young pitcher in baseball in return.

To balk at the idea of adding one additional player in this deal, be it Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, or Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber, Mike Pelfrey, or Deolis Guerra is foolish. The chances that any of those players having a career like that of Johan Santana are not good. It is better to have a bird in the hand than two in the bush.

Johan instantly gives the Mets a jolt, not only by solidifying their rotation, but by bringing legitimacy to the team in the same way Pedro Martinez did as the Mets turned the corner in the beginning of the Minaya administration.

The time has come for Minaya to make another bold move. The Mets have been a good team over the past two years but have not been able to get over that final hurdle and return to the World Series.

Make the move Omar, before they change their minds.

Jon Heyman of SI.com talked with Mike Francesa and Chris Russo and reported that the Mets are still in the race for SP Johan Santana. The team remains hopeful that they can make one final effort to find a trade, but will not include SS Jose Reyes in any deal.

Update 1:44PM - Heyman suggests the Mets should take a shot on Santana with Kevin Mulvey, Mike Pelfrey and one of Fernando Martinez or Carlos Gomez.