Before the season I took a stab at guessing the OPS of all our regulars, and I even dared to stage a mini-contest between my haphazard guesses and the exhaustively-researched PECOTA projections of Baseball Prospectus. I figure a rainout is as good a time as any to check in on how each of us is doing.

Carlos Delgado. My guess: 790 OPS. Baseball Prospectus’s projection: 815 OPS. Current OPS: 645.

Boy does his current number (and our entire season) look a lot better after Sunday’s game. I personally don’t care if Carlos never does another curtain call, so long as he keeps hitting like he did against John Smoltz et al. Carlos posted a 522 OPS last April, so believe it or not, his start to this season will constitute an improvement. As I’ve noted in other posts, Carlos rebounded in 2007 and managed an 837 OPS from May on, so I’m still holding out hope that BP’s number will prove better than mine for 2008.

Luis Castillo. Me: 715. BP: 702. Current: 680.

Castillo draws walks, hits singles (his two doubles are his only extra-base hits in 84 plate appearances so far this season), allows base stealers in front of him a chance to do their magic, and runs the bases pretty well his own self. These skills are overvalued by most, but they are skills nonetheless, and at the very least Castillo does what you expect him to on a consistent basis.

Jose Reyes. Me: 775. BP: 788. Current: 664.

We all know Jose is off to a slow start, but he has shown flashes of the brilliance we all know he possesses. Thankfully the handshakes are back, a decision 97% of SNY viewers agreed with (best poll question ever, by the way), and I still believe Jose is going to have a highly successful year. His OPS last September was a mere 612, so maybe we can look at this April as the beginning of an upward trend.

David Wright. Me: 900. BP: 935. Current: 980.

What can you say about David Wright? Actually, I said it in my last post so I won’t repeat myself here. Suffice to say, he’s really, really good.

Brian Schneider. Me: 700. BP: 664. Current: 700.

Schneider’s 309 batting average and 391 on-base percentage might lead a Mets fan to believe that he’s far exceeded expectations up to this point in the season. But Schneider does not have a single extra-base hit in 63 plate appearances. That, and his inability to stay healthy, have severely cut into whatever value he has (and I’m not even mentioning his three passed balls). His catcher ERA is, however, more than a full run better than Raul Casanova’s in a small sample size, so maybe there’s something to his defensive value after all.

Moises Alou. Me: 850. BP: 852. Current: NA.

Sigh.

Carlos Beltran. Me: 880. BP: 864. Current: 771.

Because they’ve had similar batting averages for much of this season, the two Carloses have often been lumped together when discussing the Mets’ early struggles. The difference, of course, is that Beltran has six more walks and six more extra-base hits than Delgado. Beltran will be just fine, thanks. Even in his banner year of 2006, Beltran had one month where he posted a 769 OPS (September). We have little reason to worry about our center fielder.

Ryan Church. Me: 800. BP: 821. Current: 834.

As with his fellow ex-Nat, it feels as though Church has overachieved more than he actually has. This might be because he’s second on the team in RBI (which isn’t a great indicator of how he’s really performing) and leading the team in batting average (another misleading stat). But he’s only taken nine walks (tied for fifth on the club), and has exactly the same number of extra-base hits as Delgado (6). Expect Church to be right around his projections this season.

Endy Chavez. Me: 705. BP: 696. Current: 476.

The key number here is not 476, but 29–that’s how many plate appearances Endy has received in the early season. With Angel Pagan playing over his head to start the year, it seemed reasonable enough at the time for Endy to appear as rarely as he did. With Pagan coming back to Earth, and Alou still out for who knows how much longer, and the spring starting to fade into later spring and early summer, I predict Endy will begin to see more starts at all three outfield positions.

Ramon Castro. Me: 780. BP: 787. Current: NA.

Sigh.

BP is off to the early lead, beating me for five of the eight above players who’ve actually appeared for the New York Mets this season. I am, however, a Luis Castillo home run away from tying this thing up. Of course, when you’re counting on a Luis Castillo homer, you’re going to be counting for a long time.

Let’s go Mets!

Here are some thoughts while I’m wondering why we don’t see Wrigley Field again this season.

David Wright is good. Yes, I know this isn’t exactly an original observation, but it’s worth remembering just how good this guy is as the offense slumps and the team endures a three-game losing streak. David has compiled an 1126 OPS over the first 19 games. The scary thing is that this number is short of his career-high OPS for a calendar month–he posted an 1173 OPS in August of last year. If he finishes April in the quadruple digits, that will make three straight months of OPS over 1000 for David going back to last year. Wow.

Willie Randolph’s bullpen management is bad. Again, this isn’t news to anybody, but seriously, what is Willie doing out there? Aaron Heilman is tied for the major league lead in appearances with 12, but don’t worry, Joe Smith and Jorge Sosa are right behind him with 11 each. Does Willie not remember anything about last year? About how the bullpen was overused early in the season and had nothing left for the end of the season? Yesterday’s game was a perfect example. Nelson Figueroa (more on him in a minute) had thrown only 92 pitches, and it was only the sixth inning, but Willie still went to his bullpen to bring in Scott Schoeneweis. Why? Going to the pen early might be a better strategy for winning that one game, but it’s a horrible strategy for sustaining your team over a 162-game season. Just ask the 2007 Mets.

Nelson Figueroa is good. Yes, he’s a wonderful story, but I actually think this guy is a good pitcher. He throws strikes, has good movement on his breaking stuff, and doesn’t seem to get nervous if he gets into trouble. I’m not saying he’s a savior, and his .115 BABIP coming into yesterday’s game certainly indicates that he got lucky in his first few starts. But his 16 strikeouts in 20 innings are plenty good enough, and he threw some 280 innings in various forms of competitive baseball last year, so he’s unlikely to flame out. I think there’s a chance Figueroa sticks around for a while.

“Takin’ Care of Business” is bad. They play this song at Shea after Met wins, and I think it’s a bad idea. Granted, I’m always happy when we win so I’m not going to get too bent out of shape over this. Still, I don’t like the idea that when we win a home game, it is simply a matter of taking care of business. If fans start to take on the attitude that we’re supposed to win every game, we’ll become, well, like the Yankees. Obviously, none of us want that. Even very good teams lose a third of their home games, so please, let’s lower the expectation bar a little. I want to be somewhat pleasantly surprised if we win a game. I don’t want to think of winning as routine. Oh well, at least everybody starts clapping in unison.

Phillies fans are ugly. I ranted last column about a few loser Met fans who cheered when Milledge got hit by a pitch, but that was nothing compared to the outright celebration among Phillies fans when Jose Reyes hurt himself diving into second. True, some Mets fans can do some pretty disgusting things, but at least we’re better than Phillies fans. It’s a start.

Johan Santana is our nine-figure stopper today. Let’s go Mets!

Forty-four degrees Fahrenheit ain’t exactly baseball weather. That’s one thing I learned attending the Mets’ eighth home game of this season, their 45^th and final season at Shea Stadium. Yes, Citi Field looks amazing. The bricks have that brand-new pinkish-red quality, as if they’ve yet to be rained on. And the whole complex looks as though it will be sprawling in an inviting sort of way—more a collection of neighborhoods (The Rotunda, The Concessions, The Park Itself) than a cylindrical stand-alone entity like Shea.

But on to the game itself. I was still finding my seat when my man John Maine walked the first batter of the game, Cristian Guzman. Then Guzman went in motion and Met-killer Ronnie Belliard poked a single through the hole. Was that a hit-and-run, or just a straight steal where the batter happened to swing? It looked like the latter from the third base-side field box, although my perception of the play might have been tainted by my knowledge that Manny Acta manages the Nationals.

After Maine got out of it only allowing one run, I went on a food run (pretzel for my girlfriend, dog for me). I missed Jose Reyes’s at-bat, but I returned in time to see Ryan Church hit one a long damn way. “I guess he can hit lefties,” I said as he rounded the bases. The stadium blared “Whoop, There It Is.” I flashed back to painful high school dances.

Maine continued to look scary in his subsequent trips to the mound. Our old friend Lastings Milledge (more on him in a minute) looked to be robbed of a home run by a gust of wind, as he absolutely crushed a two-strike fastball and it ended up short of the left-field fence. Then the next guy, Austin Kearns, really crushed one and no wind could’ve kept it in the park. I’m not gonna lie, I thought we were in for another long night. Leave it to Reyes and Carlos Beltran to come to the rescue. I’m not letting Maine off the hook, though. Four walks, one home run, and at least two near-home runs? Against the Nationals? Not good enough, my man. You’re a better pitcher than that.

I heard some of the booing I’ve been reading about. My take is that most of the people who booed Met players last night, during a victory, were idiots—or at the very least, soulless, mirthless sad sacks. For example, after Beltran hit the three-run homer, Carlos Delgado followed with a strikeout. A few people booed. The Mets had just taken a three-run lead with a mammoth home run, and people booed the next batter. How bad does your life have to be that you can’t enjoy a home run long enough to avoid booing the next guy who comes to the plate? Worse than the booing, however, were the people who cheered when Milledge was hit by a pitch, and cheered louder when the trainers came out. I can understand booing Lastings (though I applauded when he came to the plate), but how does a person become so morally bankrupt that he cheers when another human being has possibly broken his hand? I think some of the “fans” who come to these games think the players are fictional characters.

But I am not a despairing blogger, so enough about the bad fans. There were plenty of great fans at the park, and this was a great win for this team. Reyes looked fantastic, and Joe Smith looked like a legitimate major league reliever, coming in and striking out Ryan Zimmerman with two on. I don’t see how we send that kid down when Matt Wise is ready to come off the DL. And finally, you gotta love Beltran’s basket catch to start the ninth (another ball that appeared to be knocked down by the wind, by the way).

Let’s try to stay above .500 the rest of the way, shall we boys? Let’s go Mets!

Last season, I watched Opening Day from Row U of the Upper Deck of Shea Stadium. This year, having advanced in age, I decided to watch Opening Day from the comforts of the couch in my rec room. Each method of game-watching has its advantages. As it turns out, I’m very glad I didn’t have to wait for the 7 train amongst a mass of angry fans after the disaster that took place out on the field yesterday.

Before I get into the negatives from the game (and of course, there were plenty), let me mention two very small positives to take away. I enjoyed the cut of the outfield grass. I can’t remember seeing Shea in that particular triangle pattern before, and the contrast in greens really showed up well on the broadcast. Our stadium looked as good as it can in its final opener.

Also, I was weirdly happy for the home plate umpire, veteran Doug Eddings. Eddings has had his share of hard times (see his indecisive umpiring in Game Two of the 2005 ALCS for the most obvious example), but maybe those hard times forced him to perfect his craft. I think I agreed with every one of his ball and strike calls—and I never agree with the home plate umpire on balls and strikes. Not only that, Eddings was clear, immediately declaring “ball outside” or “ball low” as soon as the pitch hit the catcher’s mitt. He’s come full circle from his own Buckneresque moment of a few years’ back. If we get quality umpiring like this all season, I’ll have that much less heartburn.

Unfortunately, neither of these positives has anything to do with the quality of our baseball team, but I think right now we should take whatever victories we can get.

The game itself started to go bad for us when Oliver Perez walked the 45-year-old opposing pitcher who was trying to sacrifice bunt. It continued to go bad when every other one of our pitchers continued to walk everyone else. Met pitchers had seven walks yesterday against two strikeouts. That’s just not going to get it done against a good team.

Then, of course, we have the glaringly obvious problems with our team that were on full display in the home opener. 1) Our manager doesn’t know how to use his bullpen. Many of us have been saying it over and over—Scott Schoeneweis should never face a righty. And yet Willie Randolph had Show in there against two righties yesterday. Unfortunately, I don’t expect this to change. Show faced more righties than lefties last year. Utterly ridiculous. 2) Carlos Delgado is not good at playing first base. His lack of defense was much less of a problem when he was hitting 38 home runs. Now that those days are past him, it’s clear we’re going to get well-below-average production from the first base position this year, much as we did last year. 3) Many of our guys are old. Case in point, 32-year-old Luis Castillo pulls himself out of the game (presumably because it was too cold out), and he is replaced by someone six years older. A lot of our regulars are teetering on the brink of the DL all the time, and we’ll have to deal with it all season long. 4) We’re just not that good, especially without Pedro Martinez. I’m sorry, but it’s true. Over our last 162 games, we are now 86-76. Even if Johan Santana adds five wins to our total (and that’s a monster number for one player to add, considering that he’s replacing a serviceable major league pitcher in Glavine), that makes us a 91-win team. Ninety-one wins would be all fine and good, but it’s foolish to think we’re an elite team who can threaten 95 or 100 wins. We’re a decent team, but certainly a flawed team, at least for now—and we’re going to need some things to go right to beat out the Braves and Phillies for the division title.

But there is always hope. Today, hope comes in the form of our beleaguered starter Mike Pelfrey. I think I speak for all of us when I say Go Big Pelf! Let’s put the seven walks, one error, and two passed balls behind us and let’s actually enjoy baseball tonight. Let’s Go Mets!

This Opening Day left us little to complain about. Production from the bottom of the order? Against a left-handed starter no less? Check. Johan Santana looking dominant? Check. David Wright and Jose Reyes looking like their old selves? Check. Keith Hernandez discussing food during the broadcast? Check. (At least I think I heard him discussing food—I was watching from a sports bar at Foxwoods and may not have got it right.)

It might be a different story when the Mets face a real lefty on Wednesday in young phenom Andrew Miller (and we all know how the Mets usually do against rookie pitchers), and we’ll see what happens when the Mets face a bit tougher lineup with something less than their ace on the hill, but for now all is grand.

Well, not all is grand. Carlos Delgado didn’t exactly leave me brimming with confidence after watching his at-bats today, and it was kind of sad that we needed three pitchers to get through the eighth inning, but most everything is grand. In fact, I would go so far as to say that merely seeing Santana take the mound has put all our collective fears to rest. We have a legitimate team again. The guys who were out there today looked far more professional than the guys who were out there at the end of last September. Of course, we looked pretty damn professional during the opening series against the Cardinals last year, too.

The beauty of the game is that we don’t what’s going to happen tomorrow, let alone the rest of the season. It almost doesn’t matter that the Mets looked great in the opener. It matters far more that the Mets are finally playing games that count. Welcome back baseball! Too bad there are only 161 of these left.