Archive for the ‘Livan Hernandez’ Category
Mets backup plan Livan Hernandez has now replaced Johan Santana on the Twins roster. The half brother of El Duque will receive $5 mill for one year.
Last season Hernandez went 11-11 with a 4.93 ERA. Just a few weeks ago he was one of the seemingly favorites for an end of the rotation spot for the Mets, all plans of which vanished when the Mets got that other guy.
Man, its really got to kind of suck to be a Twins fan. But hey, maybe in two years we can trade Anderson Hernandez and MetsGal to them for Joe Mauer.
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As we approach Spring Training without having decided on a starting rotation, we fans, and indeed the Mets front office, seem to be getting desperate for a solution. We’re so desperate, in fact, that it was recently reported in the Rocky Mountain News that the Mets were “close” to signing Livan Hernandez. Thankfully, sources within the Mets have refuted the claim, but they acknowledge that Livan is one of the veterans they will look to sign should the Mets fail to land Johan Santana.
I’ve heard bandied about many reasons why signing Livan would be good for the Mets. 1) he will “eat innings”; 2) he is the best choice in an atrocious free agent class; 3) he’s El Duque’s half-brother, and wouldn’t that be fun? 4) the signing would allow us to push our younger pitchers to the side for a few years while they develop.
In case you haven’t guessed, I think all these reasons are bunk.
First, “eating innings” isn’t an asset. You can find a steady stream of AA and AAA pitchers to throw as many (poorly-pitched) major league innings as you want, provided your only goal is to “eat innings.” You could even do it without burning prospects. There really isn’t much value in having one lousy pitcher eat the innings versus having twenty lousy pitchers eat the innings. Who knows, one of the twenty lousy guys might even turn out to be good.
Second, even if Livan were the best choice in the free agent class, that’s not a reason to sign somebody. In fact, it may even be a reason not to sign somebody, because you’ll almost certainly be overpaying (see Zito, Barry). You sign a free agent because it benefits your organization to do so. If none of the free agents will benefit your organization, you don’t sign one just for the sake of signing one.
Third, it might be fun for Livan and El Duque if they got to play on the same team, but it doesn’t change Livan’s value as a pitcher, and we certainly shouldn’t spend millions of dollars on someone just to make El Duque slightly happier. He seems like a pretty happy guy already.
Fourth, if our younger players are going to be just as good as the veteran we sign, then we want to push our younger players into the big leagues. I’m sure many of my readers have heard the stat guy’s adage, “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.” Those who already agree with this idea need no further explanation. For those who don’t agree, let me ask you this: if one of our best prospects, a prospect you considered close-but-not-quite-ready for major league action right now, were to (God forbid) suffer a career-ending injury in 2010, would you rather he’d pitched for the Mets for two years first, or would you rather he never wore a Mets uniform? Put another way, would you rather our prospect became major league-ready in the minors, where he threw major league stuff for a year or two before we had room for him; or would you rather he became major league-ready in the majors, so that every one of his major league caliber pitches were actually thrown to major leaguers?
It’s fun to refute all the bogus arguments for signing Livan, but while we’re at it, why don’t we make a rock-solid argument for not signing Livan? And here it is: he’s a terrible pitcher. Last year he struck out 90 batters in 204 1/3 innings. He walked almost that many (79). His WHIP was 1.60. Here is an exhaustive list of the Met pitchers who had a higher WHIP last year: Mike Pelfrey, Jason Vargas, Aaron Sele, Brian Lawrence, Chan Ho Park, Lino Urdaneta, Willie Collazo, and Dave Williams. Not exactly a Cy Young Award ballot. Jorge Sosa’s WHIP was 1.33. You want to say that last year Livan Hernandez had an off-year? Fine. In 2006 his WHIP was 1.50, and he struck out 128 batters in 216 innings. If it’s ERA you’re interested in, he posted a 4.93 last year, and a 4.83 in 2006. There’s no other way to spin it. He stinks. And we shouldn’t exactly be expecting him to improve at age 33.
Signing Livan to a two-year deal, as the Mets are reportedly interested in doing, would be a colossal mistake. Just look at Mike Bauman’s (of mlb.com) article defending a Livan signing. The best he can say is that Livan has a pulse, and he’ll show up for work every day. If that’s not faint praise, I don’t know what is. The Mets would be much, much better off going with their younger players in the number 5 starter’s role than in signing a washed-up veteran to a two-year deal. I guess I should hope we land Johan Santana—even though I’m not in favor of trading the farm for him—just to avoid the Livan disaster.
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Tim Marchman, in the New York Sun, discusses three off-season questions for the Mets. Among them is how creative they intend to get with their pitching staff.
Maine and Perez both perform better on long rest, El Duque cannot make more than 25 or so starts in a season, and Martinez will presumably need extra rest; but none of this need be a problem. Assuming the Mets sign Livan Hernandez, they could put Pelfrey, Humber, or even Aaron Heilman a clear shot at a job by running a six-man rotation for a month or two at the beginning of the season, saving their best pitchers’ arms for the stretch. Something like this could turn a weakness into a strength.
I completely agree with Marchman. I think the Mets should sign Livan whether or not they sign Johan Santana. The Mets secure themselves with Livan either way, and it also buys them some decent insurance if they fail to acquire Santana.
Livan has proven to be durable and reliable, pitching 200+ innings on a regular basis, and acquiring him would allow El Duque to move to the pen whether or not the Mets add Santana to their rotation.
The Mets need the pitching depth with or without Santana, because they cannot be assured that Pedro or El Duque will last, and they don’t know that Mike Pelfrey is truly ready.
The question, again, is how creative will the Mets get with their starting rotation? While I think Marchman’s idea makes sense, I suspect they’re unlikely to be this creative, unfortunately.
Hot Foot contributor Tommy Dee adds his reasons for why the Mets should sign Livan now…
Certainly Livan is a flawed pitcher, but there are a few other points why I agree that bringing him here makes sense.
I hate desperation starters: Is there anything worse than scoring tickets to a game only to see a Jason Vargas or Dave Williams penciled in as “tonight’s starter”? The combination of Vargas/Williams/Brian Anderson/ Chan Ho Park and Phil Humber managed a 3-8 record in their starts last year. A 5-6 record would have meant a playoff birth. The easy answer to the idea that Livan had comparable numbers to those guys, is that he managed to go deeper into games consistently. With this offense, the idea is to get a pitcher deeper into games is a huge relief on the bullpen. In 26 of his 33 starts in 2007, Livan pitched at least 6 innings. The other 5 starters mentioned managed to make it 6 innings twice. Take care of the front end and the back end will take care of itself.
He’s pitched well against the Phillies- Jimmy Rollins is just 9-51 (.176) while Ryan Howard is 3-18 with 3 HRs against Livan in their career. The idea that you can trot anyone out against a division rival is pretty silly. Livan can still get outs against the league’s top hitters, which you cannot say about average free agent, spot starting arms the Mets have trotted out over the past few years.
Send El Duque to the Pen- Let’s face it, one thing we love about El Duque, and even Pedro for that matter, is their propensity to take a summer hiatus. Who knows what they do, but odds are one or both of them will spend a few weeks away from the team on the DL, or fishing in the Dominican. Livan does not. Putting Livan in the rotation virtually guarantees the 200 IP that left when Tom Glavine departed, and allows El Duque to be the long reliever/ 6th starter, which should allow he and Pedro the time they need to be strong towards season’s end.
He can hit- Nothing is more underrated in the National League than a pitcher’s ability to handle the bat. Tom Glavine was great at sacrificing, moving runners along and getting on base, allowing Jose Reyes and the top of the order to have plenty of RBI chances. Just 7 strikeouts in 75 AB’s and a .231 average means that pitchers don’t have the luxury of pitching around Brian Schneider.
I can’t say I’m overly excited about the possibility of bringing Livan to Shea, but when you weigh (no pun intended) the positives verses the negatives, I’d sign Livan to a one-year, incentive based contract. He’s virtually a guarantee to replace Glavine’s innings and his presence takes some heat off Pedro and Duque,. As long as it doesn’t come at the cost of development of Mike Pelfrey, who we want to see get 35 starts, a one-year deal does make sense.
In addition, Hot Foot contributor Matt Matros makes his case for why the Mets should pass on Livan.
Sphere: Related ContentAccording to the Rocky Mountain News, Livan Hernandez is close to signing a deal with the New York Mets.
In 2007, Livan went 11-11 inn 204 innings with a 4.93 ERA and 90 strikeouts.
Sphere: Related ContentAccording to Mark Hale of the New York Post, the Mets seem to be focusing their attention on free agent pitchers. Omar Minaya met with the agent of RHP Livan Hernandez yesterday, and were set to meet with the agents of RHP Octavio Dotel and Shawn Chacon as well.
Hale also reports that the Mets, who made the second round of bidding for Japanese RHP Hiroki Kuroda, are not one of the finalists. The four teams remaining are the Mariners, Royals, Dodgers and Diamondbacks.
At this point, this is the right decision by Omar. Although we would all like to see a top of the rotation free agent starter acquired, the chances of this happened seem slim, thus Minaya now needs to go to plan B.
Sphere: Related ContentDan Graziano of the Star Ledger reports that the Mets have asked about Dontrelle Willis, Ben Sheets, and Roy Oswalt and were told none of them are available. The Mets also have interest in Bartolo Colon and continue to view Livan Hernandez as a secondary pitcher after they try to land a front end starter. The Phillies, Cardinals, Nationals, and Astros have interest in Livan as well.
Omar Minaya is set to meet with Octavio Dotel and Shawn Chacon agents today.
Sphere: Related ContentNew York Daily News Mets beat reporter Adam Rubin spoke with SNY’s Matt Yallof on the floor of the Winter Meetings just moments ago.
Adam said Johan Santana is down to Yankees and Red Sox and its not realistic to think the Mets are in it for Santana. Asked if Omar needs to pull off something signifigant, he does not think Mets fans will be content if he simply brings back Livan Hernandez or Carlos Silva, in light of what the Yankees have done this offseason.
Regarding Erik Bedard, he spoke with a Baltimore Sun reporter and he repeated that the deal that included Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber and Aaron Heilman was rejected. He said its possible that swapping Carlos Gomez with Fernando Martinez might make the deal more attractive, along with including Mike Pelfrey over Philip Humber.
Jim Duquette, in studio with Kevin Burkhardt and Ed Coleman, said that the Dodgers would likely trump any offer the Mets could make for Bedard. He went on to say given his contract, Bedard could be seen as an even more attractive option than Johan Santana.
Adam also said that some of the Mets prospects may have been ‘exposed’ because they didn’t make a huge impact when they had their chance to shine at the major league level.
Sphere: Related ContentPeter Gammons of ESPN has reported that the Mets don’t currently have the trading chips to acquire one of the Athletics pitchers, Dan Haren or Joe Blanton. They were also denied a trade for Erik Bedard late last week. With that said, it may be time for the Mets to look elsewhere. Here is a list of potential targets and what they are valued at.
LHP Dontrelle Willis (Florida Marlins) - The Marlins have stated that they are willing to listen to offers for Willis, though they are expected to retain him for the 2008 season, or at least until the July 31st trading deadline. Willis is coming off his worst season of his career, going 10-15 with a 5.17 ERA. Throughout the past three seasons, Willis’ strikeout to walk ratio has decreased each season. In 2005, Willis struck out 170 while walking 55. The following season in 2006, he notched 160 strike outs while walking 83. Finally, last season, he struck out 146 and walked 86.
Potential Suitors: Mets, Reds, Mariners, and Diamondbacks
Cost: Two young players
Bartolo Colon (Free Agent) - Colon could definitely be a high-reward/high-risk signing for any team that picks him up. He has played only 28 starts due to his battle with shoulder and elbow problems since the beginning of the 2006 season. Omar once traded prospects Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips in a deal for Colon when he was general manager for the Expos.
Potential Suitors: Mets, Padres, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Mariners, Nationals
Cost: One-year, $9 million deal or two-year, $16 million
Carlos Silva (Free Agent) - The 28-year old Silva currently leads a very thin market of starting pitchers. He went 13-14 with a 4.19 ERA for the Twins last season and figures to cash in at around $10 million a season with another team. Plenty of teams remain interested in him, though most of them plan to use him as a fall back option and prefer to look to the trade market before committing a large contract to him.
Potential Suitors: Mets, Royals, Cardinals, Tigers, Phillies
Cost: 4-Years, $40 million
Livan Hernandez (Free Agent) - Hernandez is an innings eater. He has not pitched less than 200 innings in any season since 1999. He went 11-11 with a 4.93 ERA for the Diamondbacks last season. The Mets lost a 200 inning pitcher in Glavine to the Braves via free agency and they need to find a way to fill those lost innings. The team have made it known that Livan is more likely a Plan C or D. The fact that his half-brother El Duque is on this team and his history with Omar in Montreal makes him a strong candidate to be a Met in 2008.
Potential Suitors: Mets, Astros, Cardinals
Cost: Three-years, $21 million
Hiroki Kuroda (Free Agent) - The 33-year old right hander went 12-8 in 26 starts with a 3.56 ERA for the Hiroshima Carp last season in Japan. Scouts project him to become a middle of the rotation starter in the MLB. Conflicting reports have come out recently that the Mariners have have offered him a contract. One report says that it was for three-years, $30 million. The other states that they offered him four-year, $44 million.
Potential Suitors: Mets, Mariners, Dodgers, Royals, Phillies, Cubs, Rangers
Cost: Four-year deal, $45 million
Sphere: Related ContentHere is a recap of some Mets Hot Stove rumors from Jon Heyman’s latest article on SI.com:
Ken Rosenthal shares some Hot Stove buzz today on Fox Sports.
Rosenthal believes the Dodgers would benefit most from the addition of Torii Hunter. There are many center fielders on the market including Aaron Rowand and Andruw Jones.
Rosenthal thinks Mariano Rivera is crazy if he doesn’t take the Yankees offer, but mentions that Rivera talked about possibly joining Joe Torre and the Dodgers to the Associated Press. The Dodgers would have a formidable bullpen with Jonathan Broxton, Takashi Saito and Rivera.
Rosenthal also writes that the Mets are divided on whether to make a strong push for free-agent right-hander Livan Hernandez. The Cardinals and Astros are also interested in Livan, who turns 33 in February (alledgedly).
Hernandez, Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux are the only major-league pitchers to make 30 or more starts in each of the past 10 seasons.
Sphere: Related ContentHere’s some Hot Stove buzz to get you started with your morning coffee…
- MLB Trade Rumors hears that the Mets are interested in Ervin Santana, Chris Capuano, Claudio Vargas, and Noah Lowry. I happen to think Lowry would be a nice addition to the back end of the Mets rotation.
- MTR also reports that Luis Castillo is pushing for a 4-year deal. I suspect thats more than the Mets will be willing to offer, but stranger things have happened.
- In case you missed it, the Mets may be more interested in Livan Hernandez than previously suspected. Matthew Cerrone discusses this on Mets Blog via Ben Shpigel’s article yesterday in the New York Times.
- The Palm Beach Post is reporting that the Dodgers and Angels are the front runners for Miguel Cabrera. The Marlins want Howie Kendrick, Nick Adenhart, another pitcher, and an outfielder from the Angels. The Dodgers are being asked for Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Andy LaRoche, James Loney, and Matt Kemp.
- The Braves will meet with Tom Glavine today who is expected to look for a deal similar to the one Greg Maddux received, one-year for $10 million.
- No surprise, the Marlins are going the cheap route on their free agent spending, reports the Palm Beach Post.
- File under : Is anyone actually buying this crap? Metro Canada reports the Blue Jays are targeting Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. Is this part of their best buddies retirement tour? Please guys, just go away already, thanks.
- Scott Boras told the Detroit Free Press that returning to the Tigers is Kenny Rogers first priority. Whew, thanks Scott! I was losing sleep wondering where Kenny Rogers would be playing next season.
- The Houston Chronicle reports that the Astros intend to go after free agent reliever Francisco Cordero. Luke Scott and Chris Burke may be used as chips to get a pitcher via trade. GM Ed Wade said he intends to be aggressive this off-season and some of his other targets include Tadahito Iguchi, Scott Linebrink, Kaz Matsui, Jason Jennings, and Jon Lieber.
- The Star Ledger reports the Yankees have opened serious discussions with Mike Lowell.
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