In a close second to the Jose Reyes‘ maturity debacle, this constant underwhelming feeling given to Johan Santana for his 2008 performance has been a ridiculous theme of this season.
Santana has been the ace of the Mets, and he’s been better than two-thirds of other teams’ aces in several categories. He is in the top 10 in ERA in the NL (No. 6) and MLB (No. 9). He’s No. 7 in the NL in strikeouts and No. 12 in all of baseball. He’s never gotten injured (knock on wood), answering the bell 22 times out of 22 when his number came up in the rotation.
What is most frustrating is this myth of Santana being a complete-games factory. People act like Santana doesn’t go deep enough in games, for some reason. What exactly is this standard Santana is adhering to? Santana is 3rd (!) in the NL in innings pitched and 5th in all of baseball. You know that complete game he hurled on Sunday? That was the seventh complete game in his career. Then why has Karl Ravech and John Kruk, among others, acted like Santana’s 2008 season has been disappointing because he hasn’t churned out complete game after complete game like Roy Halladay? By the way, Halladay has about 10 innings over Santana this season.
In fact, many of his 2008 numbers have come up in synch with his career numbers. Since 2002, his ERA has always finished hovering around 3.00. His 2007 final ERA was the high watermark since he’s become a starter, 3.33, which should make his 2008 performance look all the better. Right now, he is on pace for a few less strikeouts and a few more walks, but his WHIP is still just a tick higher than his average. Hardly anything to decry the value of Santana for. He looks to also stay around his career totals for innings pitched and home runs allowed.
I suspect the real difference, the real reason why the Kruks of the world say Kyle Lohse has been a better pitcher, is the wins and losses. Is the reason why Santana wasn’t named to the All-Star Game because he isn’t among the league leaders in wins? Newsflash: Santana’s 2004 and 2006 Cy Young seasons weren’t good simply because he finished with 20 and 19 wins, respectively, though that’s probably why he won the awards. They were good because of his overall performance, which led to the wins.
I’m a big fan of team wins, but “pitcher wins” have long led to misvaluing pitchers and disporportionally rewarding pitchers with good offenses and bullpens to back them. Santana has been very unlucky in that regard, and this has led to his 2008 season being misvalued.
The Mets defeated the Cardinals by a score of 9-1 this afternoon at Shea. Johan Santana got his 9th win of the year, and Kyle Lohse suffered his first loss since May 9. For a full recap, head to Yahoo! Sports.
Santana was brilliant. He threw his first complete game as a Met, allowing one run on six hits. He also struck out five Cardinal batters. Speaking of Santana, he also drove in his first run as a Met in the 8th, on an rbi single to drive in Fernando Tatis.
The Mets got to Lohse early, when Carlos Delgado hit a sac fly to drive in Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran hit an rbi single to drive in Endy Chavez in the third.
In the fifth, David Wright crushed a first pitch fastball from Lohse into the bleachers for his 20th homer of the year.
The Mets broke the game wide open in the 6th, when Tatis and Ramon Castro both hit two run homers, their 7th and 6th homers respectively on the year.
The Mets travel to Florida for a crucial three game set against the Marlins starting tomorrow. Ricky Nolasco will face John Maine.
While the Mets lineup didn’t score 10 runs a game against a Phillies’ pitching trio that was at least two-thirds questionable, the team’s starting pitching carried the team to a series win.
Johan Santana pitched one of his best games as a Met on Tuesday, going eight strong innings and gave up only two earned runs. There was a ton of controversy over whether he should have pitched in the ninth inning, and he probably should have. While he has only six complete games in his career (including one at Shea Stadium against the Mets in 2007), he only threw 105 pitches. He had a comfortable three-run lead at the time, and he should have at least gotten the shot to begin the inning.
Chances are, Jerry Manuel was turned off because Santana didn’t complete his last few innings in a squeaky clean manner, giving up a solo home run in the 7th and a stand-up double in the eighth. Even so, as has been discussed to death, the Mets bullpen should have gotten the job done. What Tuesday ended up was a heart-wrenching loss that he could have easily crushed the resolve of the Mets for this series right there. But it didn’t.
John Maine, the “main” question mark among this series’ starters, went seven strong innings, his longest outing since May 7. He battled and produced that “quality start” in his vintage manner, hopefully getting right against a team he’s historically been good against.
But the real star turned out to be Oliver Perez on Thursday, who pitched about as well as I’ve ever seen him pitch. He was absolutely dominant, striking out twelve and only allowing one run through seven and two-thirds innings. When Eric Bruntlett becomes the offensive standout for the Phillies, the starting pitcher is most likely doing something right against this lineup. The only infuriating thing about the game was that Perez had Ryan Howard, a man with a batting average below .100 against Perez, dead to rights. Howard took two ugly swings to start the count 0-2 and then coaxed a walk to pull Perez from the game.
SNY’s Gary Cohen mentioned on Thursday’s telecast that this was the first time the Mets starters had pitched at least seven innings in four consecutive games since 2005. Doesn’t that stat sound similar to the stats rang off during the Mets winning streak during their last homestand? Maybe getting out of Great American Ballpark was just the ticket after all.
Just past the midway point in the season, we know how Johan Santana is doing with the Mets. Let’s take a look at how the prospects that the Mets sent to the Twins are doing.
Carlos Gomez
Gomez got off to a fair start over the first two months of the season, hitting .282 with 4 home runs, 23 runs batted in, 31 runs scored and 17 stolen bases. Since June 1st, Gomez is hitting .213 with 1 home run, 9 runs batted in, 21 runs scored and just four stolen bases. He has also struck out 98 out of 407 possible times. Entering Saturday’s game, leading the team with 384 at-bats, Gomez’ on-base percentage was .284, which ranked last among all American League lead off hitters, and ranks 82nd among 83 hitters who qualify for the American League batting title.
Philip Humber
Humber started off as a starter for the Triple-A Rochester Red Wings, going 3-7 with a 5.97 ERA in 15 starts, but was moved to the bullpen three weeks ago. He went 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA in 11.2 innings pitched out of the pen. Humber is now headed back to the rotation and is scheduled to make his next start against Toledo on Wednesday night. The 25-year old right-hander seems to be having trouble since needing Tommy John Surgery in 2005 and has slowed his path to the majors.
Kevin Mulvey
Mulvey has made 19 starts for the Triple-A Rochester Red Wings, compiling a 3-8 record with a 3.97 ERA. He could see work out of the bullpen during September call ups, but we don’t expect to see him in the Twins rotation anytime in 2008. The Twins also have Francisco Liriano pitching in Triple-A and would most likely get the call if any injury were to occur on the major league roster.
Deolis Guerra
Guerra is 10-4 with a 4.42 ERA in 18 starts so far for the Single-A Fort Myers Miracle. The 19-year old is averaging just about six innings per start with one complete game shutout on the season.
We’ll check back one last time at the end of the season to see how the former Mets finished out the season.
New York Post sports columnist Kevin Kernan talks about the Mets and the Yankees on ESPN.
Kernan covers Jose Reyes‘ ‘tantrum’ and compares him to Paul O’Neill. He also talks about Jerrry Manuel’s recent quotes about the fans and about the Mets being number two in NY. Kernan thinks Johan Santana is frustrated about the Mets porous defense and compares it to the solid defense Santana had in Minnesota. Overall Kernan says the Mets feel good about themselves and that they feel like ‘they’re about ready to make a move’.
Eddie Coleman was a guest of Chris Russo’s today on WFAN.
Eddie was asked if the now infamous Tony Bernazard is with the team and speaking with the media.
“He’s here (in Colorado), we haven’t talked to him as a group but he’s here to be talked to, he hasn’t held a press conference though.”
Eddie spoke regarding media reports of Jerry Manuel backstabbing or politicking for Willie’s job.
“I don’t think Manuel was trying to get Willie’s job…Willie felt that people knew stuff that he didn’t know but I don’t think Manuel’s is that type of guy.”
Eddie detailed some of things Manuel plans to implement.
“The next obstacle is Carlos Delgado, two things Manuel has stressed is resting guys and fluidity in the line-up and I think if he’s not hitting, he wont be in the line-up.”
Eddie gave some insight regarding players and their reaction to the change.
“I think the players know it’s on them now…they are associated with the collapse and now the slow start.”
Eddie’s opinion of Manuel.
“I like Jerry I think he’s a good man, he’s a good manager, he’s a guy who can motivate this bunch and more important he thinks he can.”
Eddie also said he spoke to Tori Hunter, now with the Anaheim Angels, and Hunter said this is the time of year where Johan Santana ‘really starts to kick it in’.
Read more of Eddie C’s take on what’s up with the Mets at his blog, which has been updated today, on WFAN.com.
It’s an old Sabermetrics argument. Just like how batting average is a somewhat poor and antiquated judge of offensive success, a pitcher’s win-loss record is not the end-all, be-all of pitching prowess.
So why does the media still look to it so often? From time to time, ESPN commentators will describe a pitcher’s worth solely by his win-loss record, ignoring everything else. Cy Young voters have done the same in the past.
In 2005, Roger Clemens posted a 1.87 ERA, but because of terrible run support, his record was only 13-8. He was largely considered the third-best candidate behind Dontrelle Willis, who was 22-10 with a 2.63 ERA, and the eventual Cy Young award winner, Chris Carpenter, who was 21-5 with a 2.83 ERA. So Carpenter’s ERA was almost a full point higher than Clemens, but the Cardinals’ run support basically gives Carpenter the award.
Over in the AL that year, a bigger robbery took place. Bartolo Colon went 21-8 but had a very middle-of-the-pack sounding 3.48 ERA. Meanwhile, Mariano Rivera had the best year of his career, converting 43 of 47 saves with a 1.38 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. But that’s just not as flashy as the title of “20-game winner.”
The people who really suffer from the misconception of the win-loss record are those who pitch seasons with miserable luck. Matt Cain went 7-16 last year. Sounds like a terrible year, but he had a 3.65 ERA, a modest 1.26 WHIP and batters were just hitting .235 against him. His record happened because the Giants suck; just ask Chris Russo.
It seems Aaron Harang is currently having a Cain-esque season with the Reds. He has a Zito-esque record of 2-8, but his ERA is just 3.86 with a WHIP of 1.29. He has 78 strikeouts to just 20 walks. Harang is actually putting up very similar stats to the numbers that have netted him 16-win seasons the past two years.
On a much smaller scale, hurlers like Johan Santana should have better records. People look at Santana’s record of 7-4 and wonder why he isn’t on pace for a 25-win season or something. Not only is his record perfectly acceptable, but if it was closer to his stats, he’d be Cy Young dueling with Brandon Webb. On April 6, Santana gave up just one earned run in seven innings pitched and lost. In his last start, he gave up two earned runs in seven innings pitched. Throw in that other Atlanta start where Santana gave up 12 hits but limited the damage to three earned runs, and maybe Santana could easily have 10 wins right now.
With pitching, its best not to always dwell on win-loss record because overall team success plays far too heavy a variable for such an individual statistic.
On his ESPN.com Insider blog Buster Olney writes that Johan Santana might be “Showing signs of decline”.
“The Mets were asking around about that in spring training, about what his true [velocity] baseline was,” said one talent evaluator. “They were concerned.”
Said an AL scout who has seen Santana this month: “His stuff isn’t even close to what it was [with the Twins].”
The statistics Olney provides back up his arguement that something is different with Santana:
His ratio of strikeouts per nine innings over the last six seasons has been 11.38, 9.61, 10.46, 9.25, 9.44, 9.66. This year: 7.79.
Onley also adds:
As I wrote a lot about during the winter of Santana trade talks, rival talent evaluators saw a noticeable — not dramatic, but noticeable — decline in his stuff after his 17-strikeout performance against Texas on Aug. 19.
On to the possible replacements for Willie. Some people have brought up Gary Carter’s name. Gary Carter is the new coach of the Orange County Flyers of the independent professional Golden Baseball League. You can read more about Carter’s doings here.
I found this answer to a question posed to Manny Acta interesting. Especially since some think Acta is a candidate to replace Willie and how some think Willie should be more boisterous:
MLB.com: How do you stay patient? It’s amazing how you keep your cool.
Acta: I have very good control of my emotions. I’ve learned that through the years…If I throw a phone around or turn over the spread, the score is not going to change. I have done a lot of research and have data to prove it’s not going to work. If I yell and scream at guys, it’s not going to make them play harder. So I think I get the best out of those guys by earning their respect, treating them fair and keep showing them that I do have faith in them.
Yesterday, Neil Best, from Newsday’s blog Watchdog wrote about Billy Wagner’s interview with Michael Kay on 1050 ESPN radio. Kay tried to find out why Wagner thought his remarks from last week were being interpreted as racist by some:
“When things like that get thrown out there, that doesn’t hurt Billy Wagner,” Billy Wagner said, “that hurts Billy Wagner and his four kids and his wife and his foundation and his charities he does and the people around him, and to me that almost gives me the right to say, ‘You know what, I don’t have to talk to the media anymore if you’re going to mistreat me when I’m there every day.’ I don’t have to be there every day.”…Wow. But who exactly was it who called Wagner a racist, Mr. Kay wondered, as he had not heard anyone accuse Wagner of that? …Um . . . Skip Bayless
Best added:
SKIP BAYLESS?! Billy Wagner is fed up with the media and might close his colorful mouth because of something uttered by Skip Friggin’ Bayless?
There is plenty of enjoyment in Atlanta and Philly over the Mets recent misery. The guys over at The 700 Level.com go after David Wright:
Anyway, even the infallible David Wright is jumping on the suck train. Wright was doubled up at first base last night to end the game and the Mets fans don’t really know what to say.
The Atlanta fans who brought us the Mark Teixeria song are at it again. This time they set their sights on the guys who put together the Johan Santana song and Mets fans in general. Watch it if you must at MetsBlog.com
Non-Mets related but interesting from MLB.com:
Angels manager Mike Scioscia plans to meet with the team in Chicago when a three-game series opens Friday night to discuss Major League Baseball’s initiative to step up the game’s pace by implementing several rules designed to eliminate some dead time during games.
“Just clean up some things within the game,” Scioscia said of the effort to reduce the average time of game by a few minutes. “Umpires … will try to get pitchers to deliver within 12 seconds, get hitters in the batter’s box, trim down some time.
I know it was a tough night but it was a tougher day for Scott Schoeneweis. Late last night on his Mets Blog for the NY Post Bart Hubbach reported that Schoeneweis who is a testicular cancer survivor, was rushed to the hospital by ambulance yesterday morning and was hospitalized for seven hours. Adam Rubin of the Daily News has more on Schoeneweis who took some over the counter medication because he felt flu like symptoms that are going around in the Mets clubhouse:
Schoeneweis thought that medication might have been spoiled and complicated matters since it “tasted like moldy towels.”
At one point, he said, his arms turned blue and his hands were numb. He called an ambulance at 7 a.m.
“I thought I was going to die,” he said.
Doctors thought at one point he had appendicitis, but ruled that out when they pressed the area and Schoeneweis wasn’t in intolerable pain. Turns out Joe Smith had the same symptoms, only far less severe, in L.A. during the most recent road trip. “Joe’s the carrier,” Schoeneweis good-naturedly said.
So, Willie Randolph basher’s be aware that he had few options coming out of the bullpen last night. Plus, Rubin points out that Aaron Heilman over his previous six appearances, he had allowed one run and four hits in 7 1/3 innings.
Check out the rest of Adam’s blog where you’ll find notes on Mike Pelfrey, Fernando Tatis, and Jose Reyes who was summoned into Randolph’s office for a chat with the skipper before batting practice Wednesday.
Johan Santana has a policy of not speaking to the media between starts and because of the many places I’ve read about this in the past and now recently here and here. I personally think it’s in his best interest to shelf this policy. It’s just making unnecessary enemies in the media.
Joe D from Dugout Central, like me, was very impressed with John Maine sticking up for his fellow teammates, calling John “Rambo” in his latest post. Check it out.
Well, obviously the Mets have to score some more runs. You can go elsewhere to read about how terrible Aaron Heilman is/was I’m so sick of the topic. So lets hope they get the split today with the “Bush League” Nats and then beat up on our crosstown rivals this weekend. Lets Go Mets!!
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