As Gary Grund reported on Thursday here at Hot Foot, the Philadelphia Phillies acquired right-hander Joe Blanton from the Oakland A’s for three prospects, two of which were in the Phillies’ top five prospects.

Last offseason, while others were wondering aloud why A’s general manager Billy Beane was launching into a fire sale by trading away team stars Nick Swisher and Danny Haren, I added that Blanton would probably soon be added to the list. I then couldn’t believe that Blanton survived the offseason as a member of the Oakland Athletics. In an offseason where pitching was a premium, Blanton’s stock was high. He had finished the last season with a 14-10 record and a 3.95 ERA. Why not sell high on Blanton?

As it turns out, I figure I was half right. Pitching was at a premium during the last offseason, but there were plenty of pitching superstars on the market that overshadowed Blanton, including Haren, Johan Santana, and Erik Bedard. Beane wanted to cash in his chips on Haren and hang on to Blanton and Rich Harden until the trade deadline and the next pitching market.

Holding on to Harden really worked. Harden turned in a healthy first half with impressive numbers (5-1, 2.34 ERA in 12 starts). This raised his stock for the Cubs’ trade. However, Blanton’s pedestrian 2008 had to have lowered his trade value. He’s 5-12 with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. What could Beane have gotten if he forced a deal with the Reds, whom he was negotiating with for Blanton last offseason? The Reds are a team that debuted a lot of quality talent this season; who knows who would Cincinnati have included? Regardless, Beane still got two top five prospects from the Phillies’ organization, a team desperate for pitching.

When you look at Blanton’s basic stats over his four full seasons, he’s inconsistent with bad seasons in 2006 and 2008 (thus far) and good seasons in 2005 and 2007. He went 12-12 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 2005 and 16-12 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 2006. The other numbers are above. Chances are, Blanton’s sixteen wins in 2006 were a byproduct of being on one of Beane’s most successful teams to date.

Blanton’s having this inconsistency in a true pitcher’s park. Even Blanton’s good seasons in 2005 and 2007 aren’t mindblowingly impressive, especially considering Blanton’s 2007 had an ERA just a tick below 4. That’s what made him in such prime position for a trade. That sub-4.00 ERA looks good, but a true eye could tell there’s elements of fool’s gold in it. Here’s a stat that makes that 2007 really frightening — Blanton went 7-5 with a 2.69 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and a .227 BAA in 15 starts at home. Pretty good, right? On the road, he went 7-5 with a 5.11 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and .304 BAA. Wow. Those are just some tremendously scary splits for anybody with this pitcher.

Grant it, these numbers could be an aberration. His home/road ERA split is just about a run in 2006 and 2008. In 2005, his ERA at home is actually only about 0.40 lower. But man, after seeing those 2007 splits, I am even more surprised that Blanton lasted the offseason.

The Phillies are acquiring Blanton in his worst season yet. While Blanton is better than say, Adam Eaton, the national media seems to treat Blanton and his talent like he’s at least a No. 2 pitcher. Particularly, because he’s been either the No. 2 starter for the Athletics or around the spot for so long with Oakland. Like with Dontrelle Willis and the Marlins, the national media could be in for a wake-up call.

Another problem with the national perception is the idea that whenever a pitcher goes from the American League to the National League, their statistics will improve. This simply isn’t the case in some instances. For example, if Jake Peavy was traded to Boston, his statistics would suffer a bit. Not because he’s moving to the American League but because he’s moving from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. A better gauge for future performance is ballpark. Blanton is moving from the pitcher’s park of Oakland to that bandbox in Philadelphia. Poor performance from Blanton wouldn’t be surprising, and neither would the Athletics ultimately winning this trade.

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The Phillies have acquired pitcher Joe Blanton from the Oakland Athletics in return for three minor league players, according to ESPN.

Second baseman Adrian Cardenas, pitcher Josh Outman and outfielder Matt Spencer will head to Oakland in the deal.

Based on Baseball America’s ratings this past offseason, Cardenas was the Phillies second-best propsect, while Outman was the fourth-best. Spencer was not listed in the top ten prospects in the Phillies farm system. Cardenas also just missed BA’s top 25 prospects in the minor leagues list.

In 67 games for HiA Clearwater, Cardenas was hitting .309 with 4 homers and 23 rbi. He also had 16 stolen bases.

Outman, a lefty, had a 5-4 record for Double A Reading. His ERA stood at 3.20 and had 66 strikeouts in 70.1 innings.

Spencer was hitting .249 with 6 homers and 41 rbi in 84 games for HiA Clearwater.

Overall, this looks fantastic from a Mets fans point of view. Playing at McAfee Coliseum, a known pitchers park, Blanton managed to come down with a 14-10 record with a 3.95 ERA last season. This year, not so good. He is 5-12 with a 4.96 ERA in 20 starts. You can expect Blanton to give up plenty of home runs in Citizen’s Bank Park.

Rob Harding contributed to this post.

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Here are some links from newspapers today:

• According to the Daily News, the Mets have interest in Yankees reliever Luis Vizcaino but he is expected to sign elsewhere this week. The Mets also reportedly have interest in soon to be 45 reliever Jeff Fassero, who’s planning a comeback.
• At Newsday, Kevin Davidoff takes a look at what the Mets’ have to do to improve their farm system. He says that teams like the Yankees have consistently restocked the system because they are not afraid to sign their players with above the recommended bonuses, while the Mets strictly adhere to the MLB recommendations for bonuses. He also writes that the Mets’ have hope that the Twins’ focus more on scouting than statistics and that’s why they’d have heavy interest in Carlos Gomez and Mike Pelfrey. Then he poses the question, “But what if the Twins’ scouts just don’t care for the Mets’ prospects? That’s what appears to be occurring.”
• At the San Francisco Chronicle, Susan Slusser writes that the A’s are considering more and more trading Joe Blanton and Dan Haren and that the Mets’ among other teams have expressed interest.

Well, please stay away from Fassero. He wasn’t particularly good when he was 35, and its been 10 years since then.

This Johan Santana roller-coaster is crazy. One day we hear he wants to play for the Mets, next day the Twins don’t want Gomez or Pelfrey according to Davidoff.

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Joel Sherman at the New York Post writes that the Mets do not have the chips to get Dan Haren, as Billy Beane sees his value equal to that of Johan Santana, considering he will be under the team’s control who he is traded to for the next three years for under $20 million. Sherman says Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.

Beane is looking for young pitching in return. In a deal with the Yankees, he is not interested in Melky Cabrera. He wants a package starting with Phil Hughes and one of Ian Kennedy or Alan Horne.

The Dodgers have more to offer in terms of young pitching than the Yankees, Mets or Diamondbacks. In terms of Joe Blanton, Beane views him as equal in value to Brad Penny.

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Peter Gammons of ESPN has reported that the Mets don’t currently have the trading chips to acquire one of the Athletics pitchers, Dan Haren or Joe Blanton. They were also denied a trade for Erik Bedard late last week. With that said, it may be time for the Mets to look elsewhere. Here is a list of potential targets and what they are valued at.

LHP Dontrelle Willis (Florida Marlins) - The Marlins have stated that they are willing to listen to offers for Willis, though they are expected to retain him for the 2008 season, or at least until the July 31st trading deadline. Willis is coming off his worst season of his career, going 10-15 with a 5.17 ERA. Throughout the past three seasons, Willis’ strikeout to walk ratio has decreased each season. In 2005, Willis struck out 170 while walking 55. The following season in 2006, he notched 160 strike outs while walking 83. Finally, last season, he struck out 146 and walked 86.

Potential Suitors: Mets, Reds, Mariners, and Diamondbacks

Cost: Two young players

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Bartolo Colon (Free Agent) - Colon could definitely be a high-reward/high-risk signing for any team that picks him up. He has played only 28 starts due to his battle with shoulder and elbow problems since the beginning of the 2006 season. Omar once traded prospects Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips in a deal for Colon when he was general manager for the Expos.

Potential Suitors: Mets, Padres, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Mariners, Nationals

Cost: One-year, $9 million deal or two-year, $16 million

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Carlos Silva (Free Agent) - The 28-year old Silva currently leads a very thin market of starting pitchers. He went 13-14 with a 4.19 ERA for the Twins last season and figures to cash in at around $10 million a season with another team. Plenty of teams remain interested in him, though most of them plan to use him as a fall back option and prefer to look to the trade market before committing a large contract to him.

Potential Suitors: Mets, Royals, Cardinals, Tigers, Phillies

Cost: 4-Years, $40 million

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Livan Hernandez (Free Agent) - Hernandez is an innings eater. He has not pitched less than 200 innings in any season since 1999. He went 11-11 with a 4.93 ERA for the Diamondbacks last season. The Mets lost a 200 inning pitcher in Glavine to the Braves via free agency and they need to find a way to fill those lost innings. The team have made it known that Livan is more likely a Plan C or D. The fact that his half-brother El Duque is on this team and his history with Omar in Montreal makes him a strong candidate to be a Met in 2008.

Potential Suitors: Mets, Astros, Cardinals

Cost: Three-years, $21 million

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Hiroki Kuroda (Free Agent) - The 33-year old right hander went 12-8 in 26 starts with a 3.56 ERA for the Hiroshima Carp last season in Japan. Scouts project him to become a middle of the rotation starter in the MLB. Conflicting reports have come out recently that the Mariners have have offered him a contract. One report says that it was for three-years, $30 million. The other states that they offered him four-year, $44 million.

Potential Suitors: Mets, Mariners, Dodgers, Royals, Phillies, Cubs, Rangers

Cost: Four-year deal, $45 million

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Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reports that the Mets most recent offer made for SP Dan Haren was considered more suitable for SP Joe Blanton.

Ken also notes that the A’s are no longer as interested in Mets OF Lastings Milledge and RHP Aaron Heilman as they were when they tried to acquire them for LHP Barry Zito in 2006. The A’s have found solutions for starters in the corner outfield spots and are looking for a long-term answer in centerfield. The A’s consider Milledge more of a corner outfielder. Carlos Gomez seems to be the more attractive option.

Milledge appeared in 14 games in centerfield last season in relief of Beltran who was injured, committing just one error and two assists in 120 innings.

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At Yahoo, Tim Brown writes a thorough article discussing potential trade opportunities coming up at the winter meetings.

For each player, he lists the player’s contract, realistic trade partners, upside and downside to the player, the cost to get him and who he predicts as the favorite to land the player.

Brown writes that the Mets would make sense as trade partners for Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Dontrelle Willis, Erik Bedard and Joe Blanton.

He lists the Mets as the favorites for Haren, Willis and Blanton. Brown lists the Yankees as the favorite for Bedard and the Diamondbacks as the favorite for Bedard.

Well, its nice to hear that we are favorites for getting Haren, Blanton and Willis, especially Haren. He’d really be great at the top of the rotation for years to come, not that Blanton and Willis wouldn’t be good fits.

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Buster Olney on ESPN writes that the Mets need a reliable innings eater this season that can consistantly take games into the seventh or even the eight inning, however it will be extremely difficult to land one.

Olney thinks Carlos Silva is the best pitcher available on the free agent market, but will command a deal worth about $40 million.

Big names like Johan Santana, Scott Kazmir, and Roy Oswalt are available via trade but the Mets don’t have quite the level of prospects that teams would be seeking in return. Baseball executives are mixed on their evaluation of Lastings Milledge, and while many are high on Carlos Gomez, the Mets seem reluctant to offer him in any deal. Mike Pelfrey and Phillip Humber are viewed as 4th or 5th starters or relievers. Aaron Heilman would be someone Olney considers a valuable trade chip, but the Mets are coming off a season where their bullpen seems to require an upgrade. Olney believes a deal to acquire Joe Blanton is most likely.

Olney also predicts that the Mets will offer Jorge Posada a four year deal, which depending on how much the Yankees are willing to spend to retain Posada, could bring the 35 year old catcher to Queens.

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