31 Jan
In a sure sign that someone in Chicago has been driven mad by all this Johan Santana craziness, Jim Street of MLB.com reports the Sox are taking a look at former Met Carl Everett.
The current Long Island Duck led the Mets with 17 stolen bases in 1997 while hitting .248. He hit .250 over three seasons as a Met, and is best known for his lack of beliefs in things like dinosaurs and the moon landing.
I’d like to see him brought back to the majors just for the quotes. He’s the type of guy that really makes blogging easier.
As we approach Spring Training without having decided on a starting rotation, we fans, and indeed the Mets front office, seem to be getting desperate for a solution. We’re so desperate, in fact, that it was recently reported in the Rocky Mountain News that the Mets were “close” to signing Livan Hernandez. Thankfully, sources within the Mets have refuted the claim, but they acknowledge that Livan is one of the veterans they will look to sign should the Mets fail to land Johan Santana.
I’ve heard bandied about many reasons why signing Livan would be good for the Mets. 1) he will “eat innings”; 2) he is the best choice in an atrocious free agent class; 3) he’s El Duque’s half-brother, and wouldn’t that be fun? 4) the signing would allow us to push our younger pitchers to the side for a few years while they develop.
In case you haven’t guessed, I think all these reasons are bunk.
First, “eating innings” isn’t an asset. You can find a steady stream of AA and AAA pitchers to throw as many (poorly-pitched) major league innings as you want, provided your only goal is to “eat innings.” You could even do it without burning prospects. There really isn’t much value in having one lousy pitcher eat the innings versus having twenty lousy pitchers eat the innings. Who knows, one of the twenty lousy guys might even turn out to be good.
Second, even if Livan were the best choice in the free agent class, that’s not a reason to sign somebody. In fact, it may even be a reason not to sign somebody, because you’ll almost certainly be overpaying (see Zito, Barry). You sign a free agent because it benefits your organization to do so. If none of the free agents will benefit your organization, you don’t sign one just for the sake of signing one.
Third, it might be fun for Livan and El Duque if they got to play on the same team, but it doesn’t change Livan’s value as a pitcher, and we certainly shouldn’t spend millions of dollars on someone just to make El Duque slightly happier. He seems like a pretty happy guy already.
Fourth, if our younger players are going to be just as good as the veteran we sign, then we want to push our younger players into the big leagues. I’m sure many of my readers have heard the stat guy’s adage, “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.” Those who already agree with this idea need no further explanation. For those who don’t agree, let me ask you this: if one of our best prospects, a prospect you considered close-but-not-quite-ready for major league action right now, were to (God forbid) suffer a career-ending injury in 2010, would you rather he’d pitched for the Mets for two years first, or would you rather he never wore a Mets uniform? Put another way, would you rather our prospect became major league-ready in the minors, where he threw major league stuff for a year or two before we had room for him; or would you rather he became major league-ready in the majors, so that every one of his major league caliber pitches were actually thrown to major leaguers?
It’s fun to refute all the bogus arguments for signing Livan, but while we’re at it, why don’t we make a rock-solid argument for not signing Livan? And here it is: he’s a terrible pitcher. Last year he struck out 90 batters in 204 1/3 innings. He walked almost that many (79). His WHIP was 1.60. Here is an exhaustive list of the Met pitchers who had a higher WHIP last year: Mike Pelfrey, Jason Vargas, Aaron Sele, Brian Lawrence, Chan Ho Park, Lino Urdaneta, Willie Collazo, and Dave Williams. Not exactly a Cy Young Award ballot. Jorge Sosa’s WHIP was 1.33. You want to say that last year Livan Hernandez had an off-year? Fine. In 2006 his WHIP was 1.50, and he struck out 128 batters in 216 innings. If it’s ERA you’re interested in, he posted a 4.93 last year, and a 4.83 in 2006. There’s no other way to spin it. He stinks. And we shouldn’t exactly be expecting him to improve at age 33.
Signing Livan to a two-year deal, as the Mets are reportedly interested in doing, would be a colossal mistake. Just look at Mike Bauman’s (of mlb.com) article defending a Livan signing. The best he can say is that Livan has a pulse, and he’ll show up for work every day. If that’s not faint praise, I don’t know what is. The Mets would be much, much better off going with their younger players in the number 5 starter’s role than in signing a washed-up veteran to a two-year deal. I guess I should hope we land Johan Santana—even though I’m not in favor of trading the farm for him—just to avoid the Livan disaster.
It is eerily quiet on the Mets front today, not much in the way of rumor or news. I’ll give you a rundown of Monday afternoon buzz around MLB today, in lieu of any major Mets buzz.
The Dodgers introduced Hiroki Kuroda to the Los Angeles media.
Promote The Curse weighs in on The Mitchell Report.
Metstradamus wants more bang for his buck.
Joe Blanton trade rumors are heating up, with the departure of Dan Haren.
Here are some links from newspapers today:
Well, please stay away from Fassero. He wasn’t particularly good when he was 35, and its been 10 years since then.
This Johan Santana roller-coaster is crazy. One day we hear he wants to play for the Mets, next day the Twins don’t want Gomez or Pelfrey according to Davidoff.
mlbtraderumors.com has reported that the Nationals have signed IF Aaron Boone to a 1 year, $1MM contract. Boone played part time for the Marlins in 2007.
The Nats have also decided to extend OF Wily Mo Pena’s contract, geting $2MM in 2008 with an option in ‘09
Jayson Stark in the ESPN Winter Meetings blog writes at 6:10PM EST of the Mets effort to acquire a starting pitcher.
Officials of two clubs that have been in contact with the Mets used the same expression — “in trouble” — to describe their efforts to deal for a starting pitcher. It’s believed they haven’t talked to either the A’s (about Dan Haren) or Orioles (about Erik Bedard) since they arrived in Nashville. And there are indications that they aren’t as interested in free agents Livan Hernandez or Carlos Silva as they’ve been portrayed to be, either.
Sounds like Plan B isn’t even working out, I wonder what plan C is.
4 Dec
Make sure to check out Talking Baseball’s Winter Meeting Report at noon today for the latest from Nashville.
At Fox Sports, Ken Rosenthal enlightens us with the latest rumors and buzz:
Well, I always have thought from what scouting reports have said, that Fukodome would be a great fit in RF if Milledge were traded. However when I was thinking that, I assumed Milledge would be in a trade for a SP. I like Castillo as a player but you need some pop in the two hole. When Reyes is consistently getting on base, and often making his way to 2nd, it’d be nice to have somebody in batting 2nd who could hit him home, rather than just depending on Wright or Beltran.
For me its really tough to get a vibe on Kuroda’s talent. Some say he’s a sure, solid 3 starter while others say he’s just cashing in on an opportunistic market for free agents. I think he would make sense depending on who else is signed and who we end up trading for.
3 Dec
Tune into Gotham Radio’s Winter Meeting Report tonight at 8pm.
Mark Healey and Mike Silva will give an early evening update live from Nashville TN at the 2007 MLB Winter Meetings.
Recent Comments