Ken Davidoff in Newsday writes about the value of Fernando Martinez who once was deemed ‘too raw’ by Oakland in return for Barry Zito.

The Mets offered him instead of Lastings Milledge, who the Mets felt was too good to give up at the time.

Milledge, as we all know was traded for far less than the bounty of Zito this offseason. It is a difficult game to know when and if it makes sense to trade prospects for known entities.

Martinez has had another year under his belt and with the Yankees and Red Sox not particularly putting a full court press on the Twins, the Mets have the luxury of waiting for the Twins to blink.

I don’t know that Martinez’s value has risen so much as it doesn’t appear they have much competition. The Red Sox and Yankees seem to be sitting on the sidelines, which leads the Mets to believe they can get Johan for a smaller package.

Casey Stern interviews Fernando Martinez and Kevin Mulvey on Next Stop: Shea.

Martinez and Mulvey were at the 2008 Rookie Career Development program last week, which is meant to prepare young players for the non-athletic aspects of playing in the major leagues.

Seminars include off-field areas such as security, baseball’s joint anti-drug initiatives, financial responsibility, and working with the media.

According to a report by Kevin Kernan of the New York Post, sources say the Mets have told the Twins they would not throw in top outfield prospect Fernando Martinez in a five-for-one deal for Twins SP Johan Santana.

The two teams continue to talk and word out of Minnesota yesterday was that, yes, the Mets could snare Cy Young Santana for the right price, but as far as the Mets are concerned, that five-for-one deal is not the right price.

Mets New York Mets sources told the Post they would not make such a trade, sending away all those top-level prospects. They also have made it clear they are not trading Jose Reyes. If this deal is to get done, the Mets would be willing to give up some prospects, but not all those mentioned.

The current deal according to a report out of Minneapolis yesterday is SP Kevin Mulvey, SP Deolis Guerra, SP Phil Humber and CF Carlos Gomez.

Meanwhile, David Lennon of Newsday chimes in with more trade notes.

Just how aggressive is where Fernando Martinez, a top outfield prospect, enters the equation. A report in yesterday’s Minneapolis Star-Tribune suggested that the Mets needed only to include Martinez to complete a deal for Santana. Two people familiar with the situation said yesterday that is not the case.

It seems to me, that the Mets fan base is in favor of doing whatever it takes to land Johan Santana. At MetsBlog yesterday, Matthew Cerrone discussed potential trades and ultimately concludes that he’d pull the trigger on a deal for Johan Santana, which would give up 4 pitching prospects, probably Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra in addition to Carlos Gomez.

Earlier today, Anthony posted his case for unloading the farm for Mr. Santana.

I’m here to convince you otherwise.

By trading four pitching prospects, plus the very ‘toolsy’ Carlos Gomez for Johan, its essentially mortgaging most of our farm system in favor of winning right now, as well as mortgaging all of our financial flexibility because we’d have to sign Johan to the 7 year deal he seeks, hovering arounds $20 million a year.

We’re all crying for “Freddy Coupon” to open up the wallet for Johan now, and we’ll be set. So we trade for him, but then we want a new LF after Alou is gone, but wait, we’ve given up our financial flexibility on Johan. But it’s a double whammy. Having less financial wiggle room would be OK—if you had people in the farm system who could be used as replacements. However, those players who could be useful at the Major League level anytime soon will then be a part of the Minnesota Twins organization.

So what would we be getting with Johan?

He’ll be 29 when the season starts. Granted we’ll probably get a few years of very solid production out of him, but there are so many variables that can come into play with a pitcher, mainly injuries. There is always the possibility he tears his rotator cuff, a ligament in his elbow and requires serious, career threatening surgery. That leaves us with millions of dollars on the table that handcuff our franchise for years. Even less daunting, is the chance he develops minor injuries as he ages such as recurrent hamstring problems that allow him to make only 25 starts a year. He could even age poorly and we’re stuck with an expensive, unproductive pitcher for a couple years. Injury concerns may seem far fetched, but pitchers’ injuries are so unpredictable and unreliable, and I’m not comfortable investing that much talent and money in a guy that only plays every fifth day.

Injuries aside, he has a 4.41 post season ERA, so we can be sure he’ll carry us to that postseason title. (heavy sarcasm)

Should we lock up Oliver Perez long term, after this following season we’ll only have two shoe-ins for our rotation in 2009: Perez and John Maine. By trading for Johan, we have a third mainstay in our rotation for years to come, but we have to look elsewhere for starters four and five. Our system will be depleted, and our wallet will be emptied into the hands of Johan Santana, so we’ll likely be left with unfortunate options as our fourth and fifth starters.

We don’t know what type of careers Mulvey, Pelfrey, Humber and Guerra will have. Guerra is 18 and everybody seems to rave about him. Everybody seems to really like Mulvey too. However, people seem to be down on Pelfrey and Humber. Humber is still recovering from Tommy John Surgery, and if you look at the numbers, starters bounce back two years after surgery. Best example: Chris Carpenter. Let Humber regain arm strength and we’ll see what comes from that. People express concern over Pelfrey’s lack of a second pitch, but I’ll take a 6′7″ 23 year old with a mid 90 mph sinker any day. It would be a grand mistake to sell low on a prospect, as we would be doing with Pelfrey and Humber.

The way things are looking now, unless either the Twins or Red Sox cave on their demands its very possible Johan will be a free agent next year. Do we not have the patience to wait a year and save the five top prospects we’d be losing?

In addition to Santana, C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Brad Penny can all become free agents next year. Save five prospects to have one season’s patience. If everybody is so gung-ho about being impatient and demanding to win now, why was everybody in such an uproar when Milledge was traded?

Beyond the four top pitchers we could lose, Carlos Gomez is faster than Jose Reyes–according to Reyes. He’s less developed at the plate and plays a less important position, but you can’t teach being tall and you can’t teach being fast. Alou is presumably gone after this year, and Church is solid but not a long term answer. Gomez would be great to groom for 2009 and Church could hold the fort until Fernando Martinez is ready.

We can sign somebody such as Bartolo Colon or Freddy Garcia to fill in this year, and next year pounce on the strong pitcher market.

In summation:

• We’d be investing all of our financial flexibility in one player, and that player only plays every fifth day.
• Its very possible we’d be able to go after him in free agency after this season, and we’d be sacrificing five top prospects in order to get one extra year of Johan.
• While they probably will never be as good as Mr. Santana, we have yet to see what our prospects can do and we’d be selling low on Pelfrey and Humber despite the facts we have reason to have a positive outlook for them.
• Gomez has speed that comes along once in a long time, and it’d be disappointing to see him develop into a star so far away from us, especially because we have a hole in the OF opening up next year.

I’m all in favor of trading for Santana. But four pitching prospects plus Gomez? No thank you. Take out one of the pitchers, and leave us with something to work with, I’ll probably bite. But all those prospects is just taking our chips and pushing them all in on this hand (this year) something we feel pressured to do after The Collapse, but in truth–by not making this trade we might be less likely to win this year, but we can maximize our winning over the next ten years.

Hot Foot is going to present both sides of the debate as to if the Mets should meet the reported demands of the Twins to offer either Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez along with three pitching prospects or one of Gomez or Martinez and four pitching prospects for Johan Santana. I will be presenting the case for, and later today Andrew Beaton will present the case against.

I want to preface my case by saying I have a sneaking suspicision that the Mets are simply trying to make it seem like they’re making an effort to appease fans, but don’t want to make the commitment in money or prospects it would take to land Santana. My other suspicion is that the reason the Mets reportedly declined the deal was because they believe the Twins will simply take the offer to the Yankees and Red Sox and use it as leverage. The only way the Mets can make this offer is if the Twins are forced to take it or leave it.

If the Mets can have them meet this demand, I believe the Mets should make the deal. While they would be giving up pretty much every top prospect in their system, if any of these players were to meet their potential the Mets would still likely come up on the better end of this deal. The chances of any of them becoming as good as Johan Santana are remote at best.

The other consideration is that the Mets have two high picks in the upcoming draft, one of them the 18th overall pick, which will quickly replenish their system, along with Omar Minaya’s declaration that the Mets will seriously consider not going by the MLB guidance to not pay above slot. The Mets have been good citizens while teams like the Yankees have scooped up players like Philip Hughes and Joba Chamberlain by paying for players other teams passed on to appease the Commissioner.

You cannot be paralyzed with the fear that a player you trade for could get injured. Any player could get injured. If you operated under this kind of neuroticism, you would never make any deal.

The other argument against is the money you would have to devote to Santana. I believe Santana will eventually sign for between $21 to $22 million a year for 6 years. He is likely more interested in the years than getting more money per year.

The Mets have all sorts of new revenue streams, a new stadium, a new television network, and $20 million a year from Citi for naming rights, which pays for most of Santana’s contract. I don’t believe this deal would seriously affect their ability to make other deals in the future.

The Mets problem with pitching started with the rotation not holding down their end of the bargain enough and left the bullpen overworked and out of gas by the time the Mets truly needed them in the final two months of the season. Santana would bring much needed stability and provide a bona fide young proven ace for the foreseeable future to go along with a powerful core of Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Maine and Perez.

Missing out on opportunities to get the top value for your prospects is as foolish as holding onto them and never benefiting from what they can do for your long and short term goals. Much like holding onto a hot Wall Street stock too long only to watch it drop to the floor, one must get optimal returns on their investments.

The Mets traded Lastings Milledge at the lowest point of his value. That my friends is what I would describe as a very poor business decision. What I am advocating here is that the Mets deal their prospects for optimal value. I can’t think of a better pay off on their prospect portfolio than to acquire the best young pitcher in baseball in return.

To balk at the idea of adding one additional player in this deal, be it Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, or Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber, Mike Pelfrey, or Deolis Guerra is foolish. The chances that any of those players having a career like that of Johan Santana are not good. It is better to have a bird in the hand than two in the bush.

Johan instantly gives the Mets a jolt, not only by solidifying their rotation, but by bringing legitimacy to the team in the same way Pedro Martinez did as the Mets turned the corner in the beginning of the Minaya administration.

The time has come for Minaya to make another bold move. The Mets have been a good team over the past two years but have not been able to get over that final hurdle and return to the World Series.

Make the move Omar, before they change their minds.

Over at Metsblog.com, Matthew Cerrone cites Jon Heyman of SI.com, saying the Mets balked at the price of 4 pitching prospects plus Carlos Gomez or Fernando Martinez for Johan Santana.

Im assuming the pitching prospects would be Humber, Mulvey, Niese, Pelfrey, and Guerra. The only one i would hesitate to deal is Guerra, just because he has so much upside as a 19 year old kid. If im Omar, I pull the trigger on Gomez plus the above 4, Keeping Martinez and Guerra Around.

Jon Heyman of SI.com talked with Mike Francesa and Chris Russo and reported that the Mets are still in the race for SP Johan Santana. The team remains hopeful that they can make one final effort to find a trade, but will not include SS Jose Reyes in any deal.

Update 1:44PM - Heyman suggests the Mets should take a shot on Santana with Kevin Mulvey, Mike Pelfrey and one of Fernando Martinez or Carlos Gomez.

MiLB.com completes the rest of their list of top 50 prospects recently. Here are the top 10 prospects in all of baseball, according to MiLB.com

1. Jay Bruce
2. Evan Longoria
3. Cameron Maybin
4. Clayton Kershaw
5. Joba Chamberlain
6. Clay Buchholz
7. Colby Rasmus
8. Andrew McCutchen
9. Homer Bailey
10. Adam Miller

Fernando Martinez checks in at the 17th best prospect in baseball, the only Met to crack the top 50.

Here is a recap of some Mets Hot Stove rumors from Jon Heyman’s latest article on SI.com:

Mets Refugees provides a positive review of Fernando Martinez and his progression as one of the Mets top prospects at an incredibly young age.

Some have taken Martinez down a notch because of his performance, that was hampered by injury, this past season. This post sets the record straight, and reminds folks of how far Martinez has come for such a young man, and how he compares to other players who excelled in the minor leagues at such an excellerated pace.

At his blog minorleagueball.com, John Sickels has posted his 2008 edition of the New York Mets Prospects. Fernando Martinez ranks in at #1 followed by in order Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, and Kevn Mulvey. John ranks Philip Humber at #7.

I am a big fan of Jon Niese’s but I dont feel he should be ranked ahead then Humber. Other then that, for the most part though, I agree with his list.

Overall our system has some talented pitchers with some good potential such as Scott Moviel, Brant Rustich, Eddie Kunz, & Nathan Vineyard who could possibly make an impact at the big league level this year, but when you look at the hitters all you see is Fernando, Gomez, and possibly Mike Carp becoming successful major league players. Unfortunately this shows how weak the Mets really are offensivley in the system.

Nick Evans and Brahiam Maldonado are two guys that definatley get overlooked in the Mets farm system and I am very excited to see what they both do in 2008.

John Sickels at his blog minorleagueball.com, feels the Mets are rushing their prospects Fernando Martinez, Deolis Guerra, and especially Carlos Gomez through the system too fast.

One comment he writes about Gomez is:

He’s a remarkable athlete with plus speed, a great glove, and offensive potential. But his bat is unrefined. His plate discipline is poor, his power is undeveloped, and he needs regular playing time get his swing in gear and work these issues out. Regular playing time in Double-A and Triple-A, not in the majors. Sticking him in the regular lineup in ‘08, like the Mets are talking about, is a huge risk for his long-term development, and an unnecessary one.

I could see his point about Fernando or Deolis but last year the Mets were dropping like flies in the outfield and Gomez was pretty much the only option to go with inside the system wise. With the re-signing of Moises Alou for LF, Carlos Beltran in CF, and Lastings Milledge in RF and Endy Chavez as our 4th outfielder I don’t see any room for Gomez. I highly doubt well see much of Gomez in 2008 unless theres some more injuries similar to last year’s situation.

Theres also the chance of the Mets trading Milledge during this off season but if that happens I feel the Mets will definitely try and do anything to keep Gomez in AAA for most of 2008 because of how he performed last year doesn’t make it seem he would be ready this year to be a regular in 2008 lineup.

Buster Olney on his ESPN blog writes of the matters that could complicate the trading of Johan Santana.

Among them is his no-trade clause, which he could use as leverage to block any deal where he doesn’t feel he will get his best return on a new deal.

On top of that, a team would need to part with a number of their best prospects, a proposition that could present another roadblock due to the fact that the Yankees are reluctant to give up Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Phillip Hughes, and the Red Sox may be unwilling to trade Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, and Jacoby Ellsbury on top of a $150 million contract extension.

The Mets seem more willing to deal their prospects, as Omar Minaya has stated that ‘nobody’s untouchable’ and he intends to upgrade his rotation this off season.

A package could include either Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez, or more likely Lastings Milledge, who has the most major league experience of the three, as the Twins want players who are major league ready in return, along with and pitchers Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber and Joe Smith.

Hot Foot reported earlier this week that Jim Callis of Baseball America doesn’t believe the Mets could put a package together that the Twins would be willing to accept for Santana. Callis believes the Mets should set their sights on Dan Haren instead. Ken Davidoff seems to agree, and writes of a Haren deal with the Mets on Newsday.

“Trade Aaron Heilman, Lastings Milledge, Kevin Mulvey and a lower-level prospect to the A’s for Dan Haren.The beauty of a Haren trade is that the Mets would be acquiring an ace for the price of a back-of-the-rotation starter. They would retain the payroll flexibility to go out and get Santana on the free-agent market a year from now, if Santana is still available, or Erik Bedard in two years.”

Olney wonders if a package of Milledge, Humber and Pelfrey would be enough weighed against the backlash new Twins GM Billy Smith would receive from fans for trading Santana.

Smith, in his first year as Twins GM, will look to shape his legacy in his first season. He could find that he may endear himself better to fans, however unlikely, by holding onto Santana, hoping he leads the Twins back into the pennant race next season rather than hand him over to the Yankees or Red Sox.

Omar Minaya has expressed that with the likelyhood of Tom Glavine leaving, the Mets are willing to trade top prospect to get a top tier pitcher in return, reports MLB.com

“There’s no doubt, if you’re going to trade for pitching in this market — the way pitching is right now if you look at the free agents — you’re going to have to part with some premium guys,” Minaya said Wednesday.

“There’s no doubt that our premium prospects are very well-liked. The question is whether we’d trade them. We could be players in some of the pitching that might be traded.”

The Mets top prospects, in order of value to the team, are Minor League outfielders Fernando Martinez and Carlos Gomez, Mike Pelfrey and Minor League starter Kevin Mulvey, Lastings Milledge and Philip Humber.

A deal involving Martinez and Gomez is highly unlikely. The Mets might be more willing to deal them if the return was someone like Johan Santana.