According to the Associated Press, the Detroit Tigers are sending LHP Dontrelle Willis to Single-A Lakeland. Willis was signed to a three-year, $29 million deal by the Tigers after the team acquired him in the mammoth trade with the Florida Marlins this past offseason.

The Willis signing doesn’t look too bad, even after Willis’ 2007 season was horrid. It was about a 50/50 shot whether Willis would bounce back to form, and the Tigers signed the former ace to a short-term deal at a reasonable price.

While Willis’ 2007 was bad (10-15 record with a 5.17 ERA and 1.60 WHIP), his 2008 “campaign” has been horrific. He got injured in early April, returned in mid-May, was sent to the bullpen and then returned to the rotation once again. In his second start last night since coming back from the disabled list, he went 1.1 innings, giving up eight earned runs on five walks and three hits, including two home runs. Willis’ command was erratic. He’s got 21 walks total in 11.1 innings pitched.

Even with Willis’ downward spiral as of late, its still hard to believe what a 2005 Cy Young candidate and 20-game winner has become. He’s still just 26, but Tigers fans have cause for concern.

It’s an old Sabermetrics argument. Just like how batting average is a somewhat poor and antiquated judge of offensive success, a pitcher’s win-loss record is not the end-all, be-all of pitching prowess.

So why does the media still look to it so often? From time to time, ESPN commentators will describe a pitcher’s worth solely by his win-loss record, ignoring everything else. Cy Young voters have done the same in the past.

In 2005, Roger Clemens posted a 1.87 ERA, but because of terrible run support, his record was only 13-8. He was largely considered the third-best candidate behind Dontrelle Willis, who was 22-10 with a 2.63 ERA, and the eventual Cy Young award winner, Chris Carpenter, who was 21-5 with a 2.83 ERA. So Carpenter’s ERA was almost a full point higher than Clemens, but the Cardinals’ run support basically gives Carpenter the award.

Over in the AL that year, a bigger robbery took place. Bartolo Colon went 21-8 but had a very middle-of-the-pack sounding 3.48 ERA. Meanwhile, Mariano Rivera had the best year of his career, converting 43 of 47 saves with a 1.38 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. But that’s just not as flashy as the title of “20-game winner.”

The people who really suffer from the misconception of the win-loss record are those who pitch seasons with miserable luck. Matt Cain went 7-16 last year. Sounds like a terrible year, but he had a 3.65 ERA, a modest 1.26 WHIP and batters were just hitting .235 against him. His record happened because the Giants suck; just ask Chris Russo.

It seems Aaron Harang is currently having a Cain-esque season with the Reds. He has a Zito-esque record of 2-8, but his ERA is just 3.86 with a WHIP of 1.29. He has 78 strikeouts to just 20 walks. Harang is actually putting up very similar stats to the numbers that have netted him 16-win seasons the past two years.

On a much smaller scale, hurlers like Johan Santana should have better records. People look at Santana’s record of 7-4 and wonder why he isn’t on pace for a 25-win season or something. Not only is his record perfectly acceptable, but if it was closer to his stats, he’d be Cy Young dueling with Brandon Webb. On April 6, Santana gave up just one earned run in seven innings pitched and lost. In his last start, he gave up two earned runs in seven innings pitched. Throw in that other Atlanta start where Santana gave up 12 hits but limited the damage to three earned runs, and maybe Santana could easily have 10 wins right now.

With pitching, its best not to always dwell on win-loss record because overall team success plays far too heavy a variable for such an individual statistic.

Dontrelle Willis, formerly of the Marlins, has been placed on the DL after hyperextending his knee. The subject of off season rumors involving the Mets every year going back to when he was good, Willis ended up in Detroit.

It just gets worse and worse for Detroit, as human triples machine Curtis Granderson still sits out hurt as well. One has to wonder how much D-Trains lack of being in shape plays into this, as the once dominant pitcher now is hurt and coming off a less than stellar season.

According to Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes, the Tigers and Miguel Cabrera have reached an 8 year extension worth $153.3 million.  According to Rojas’ source, the deal will be complete upon Cabrera taking a physical.

Cabrera, along with SP Dontrelle Willis were traded to the Tigers this winter for various prospects including LHP Andrew Miller and OF Cameron Maybin.

Jeez, that’s a lot.  Makes me feel fortunate for the great contracts we have Wright and Reyes signed to.

Adam Rubin writes in the New York Daily News this morning, regarding Dontrelle Willis.

On the Willis front, Mets sources believe the Tigers may look to flip the lefty they just got from the Marlins because of payroll limitations. The Mets would be interested in speaking with the Tigers, but no dialogue is believed to have occurred yet. It is believed the Marlins may have insisted the Tigers take on both their arbitration-eligible players, Willis and third baseman Miguel Cabrera. The Tigers acquired both players knowing they couldn’t afford both, and may be looking to replenish their farm system by flipping Willis.

Rubin also mentions that the Rays may be interested in former Met Cliff Floyd.

Over at Metsblog.com, Matt Cerrone gives us an update on the Willis to Mets rumors. The rumor had Pudge Rodriguez and Dontrelle Willis going to the Mets, with the Mets taking on a large chunk of Rodriguez’s salary. This rumor is not true and will not happen in the near future.

I didn’t think that this had any truth to it, nevertheless, the Hot Stove is on Fire. Its that time of year ladies and gentlemen

How about Dontrelle Willis being spun off to the Mets?  According to Metsblog.com, the Tigers have talked to the Mets about trading Willis in a salary dump package with Pudge Rodriguez.  

As reported by Metsblog.com, WFAN beat reporter Sweeny Murti said…

  “ The Tigers are interested, perhaps, in moving Willis and Ivan Rodriguez and dumping his salary, which is $13 million next season.  So, if the Mets wanted Willis from Detroit, they’d have to take on that salary.  The thing is, he has a no trade clause, so to get him to waive it you’d probably have to give him another year.”

There was no report of what the Tigers would be asking the Mets for in return.  However, both Willis and Rodriguez have been trade targets of  the Mets and if the request was reasonable then this is a trade that Omar would have to consider.  If the Mets could make this deal with a couple of prospects plus Brian Schneider then it certainly makes sense to pursue.

In a thorough article for Fox Sports, Dayne Perry discusses the Tigers-Marlins trade, which in case you missed it sends Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Tigers for LHP Andrew Miller and OF Cameron Maybin among 6 minor leaguers sent to the Marlins. 

In the article, Perry attacks Marlins’ owner Jeffery Loria and the way he not only is controlling the Marlins now, but the way he controlled the Expos years ago.

It’s no secret that Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria is a thoroughly deplorable character. This was, after all, the man who willfully and with malice aforethought destroyed the Montreal Expos. During Loria’s tenure north of the border, he did things like fail to negotiate a television deal or an English-language radio contract, allow a lease on stadium land to expire, and offer his team up for contraction. It was an orchestrated failure designed to get baseball out of Montreal, and Loria pulled it off.

Great article, and every word in it is so true.  Its nice to see a writer once in a while come out with blunt truth rather than trying to appease everybody. 

What Marlins ownership is forcing this team to do is terrible. I’m sure they’ll spin it in some sort of positive way, but it’s not like they traded away some aging stars for these prospects.  They traded Miguel Cabrera, 24 years old and Dontrelle Willis, 25 years old. 

This is precisely why revenue sharing was created, and precisely why it fails.  Sure, the Marlins might have relatively low income. Yet they can afford more than a minor league roster.  Revenue sharing was meant to give small market teams a chance to compete and sign players, not for the rich and greedy owner to just pocket it.  Look at the Royals, they’ve signed Jose Guillen, Gil Meche and have used the system well.

All I can conclude is that the Marlins will promise to have the best AAA roster in baseball next year.

Peter Gammons of ESPN updates us on the other three pitchers that the Tigers have sent to the Marlins. In addition to the Marlins receiving OF Cameron Maybin, P Andrew Miller, and C Mike Rabelo for P Dontrelle Willis and 3B Miguel Cabrera, the fish also received the following pitchers:

Eulogio De la Cruz (3.62 ERA in the minors with a blazing fastball)
Dallas Trahern (13-6 between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo)
Burke Badenhop (12-6 between Lakeland and Erie)

Baseball America named Maybin and Miller as Detroit’s top two prospects prior to the 2007 season. If you missed it yesterday, check out Anthony’s post on Maybin and Miller.

I am thankful that Dontrelle won’t be doing this off us anymore.