Just past the midway point in the season, we know how Johan Santana is doing with the Mets. Let’s take a look at how the prospects that the Mets sent to the Twins are doing.

Carlos Gomez
Gomez got off to a fair start over the first two months of the season, hitting .282 with 4 home runs, 23 runs batted in, 31 runs scored and 17 stolen bases. Since June 1st, Gomez is hitting .213 with 1 home run, 9 runs batted in, 21 runs scored and just four stolen bases. He has also struck out 98 out of 407 possible times. Entering Saturday’s game, leading the team with 384 at-bats, Gomez’ on-base percentage was .284, which ranked last among all American League lead off hitters, and ranks 82nd among 83 hitters who qualify for the American League batting title.

Philip Humber
Humber started off as a starter for the Triple-A Rochester Red Wings, going 3-7 with a 5.97 ERA in 15 starts, but was moved to the bullpen three weeks ago. He went 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA in 11.2 innings pitched out of the pen. Humber is now headed back to the rotation and is scheduled to make his next start against Toledo on Wednesday night. The 25-year old right-hander seems to be having trouble since needing Tommy John Surgery in 2005 and has slowed his path to the majors.

Kevin Mulvey
Mulvey has made 19 starts for the Triple-A Rochester Red Wings, compiling a 3-8 record with a 3.97 ERA. He could see work out of the bullpen during September call ups, but we don’t expect to see him in the Twins rotation anytime in 2008. The Twins also have Francisco Liriano pitching in Triple-A and would most likely get the call if any injury were to occur on the major league roster.

Deolis Guerra
Guerra is 10-4 with a 4.42 ERA in 18 starts so far for the Single-A Fort Myers Miracle. The 19-year old is averaging just about six innings per start with one complete game shutout on the season.

We’ll check back one last time at the end of the season to see how the former Mets finished out the season.

La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports that both the New York Mets and Minnesota Twins have discussed adding another player to the reported Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey deal. While the Mets view 19-year old prospect Fernando Martinez as ‘practically untouchable’, the two sides have talked about adding Scott Schoeneweis, Joe Smith or Aaron Heilman to the deal for Johan Santana.

The Yankees and Twins have discussed adding a third or fourth player to their proposed deal of Philip Hughes and Melky Cabrera.

The Red Sox have discussed tweaking the back-end of their current offers to make the deal happen, but the Twins still would have to work with either a deal led by outfield prospect Jacoby Ellsbury or another led by pitcher Jon Lester, but not both in the same deal.

Update 1/26 - 7:12 p.m. - It appears that Neal updated the article and now it does not include pitchers Scott Schoeneweis or Joe Smith.

According to a report by Kevin Kernan of the New York Post, sources say the Mets have told the Twins they would not throw in top outfield prospect Fernando Martinez in a five-for-one deal for Twins SP Johan Santana.

The two teams continue to talk and word out of Minnesota yesterday was that, yes, the Mets could snare Cy Young Santana for the right price, but as far as the Mets are concerned, that five-for-one deal is not the right price.

Mets New York Mets sources told the Post they would not make such a trade, sending away all those top-level prospects. They also have made it clear they are not trading Jose Reyes. If this deal is to get done, the Mets would be willing to give up some prospects, but not all those mentioned.

The current deal according to a report out of Minneapolis yesterday is SP Kevin Mulvey, SP Deolis Guerra, SP Phil Humber and CF Carlos Gomez.

Meanwhile, David Lennon of Newsday chimes in with more trade notes.

Just how aggressive is where Fernando Martinez, a top outfield prospect, enters the equation. A report in yesterday’s Minneapolis Star-Tribune suggested that the Mets needed only to include Martinez to complete a deal for Santana. Two people familiar with the situation said yesterday that is not the case.

Chris Kline of Baseball America had these comments on a recent ESPN chat.

Alan (Vassalboro, ME): If you were the Mets, would you deal Gomez AND Martinez, along with Pelfrey, Mulvey, and Heilmann for Santana?

SportsNation Chris: No way. That’s way too much.

Dan (NY): Chris, I know you’re not Jim! Can you please, please, please give me some info on the Mets’ Deolis Guerra? Is this guy as good as he seems? How far away is he?

SportsNation Chris: If he stays healthy, you could see him in 2009. The stuff is that good and I love the body. He can get out of whack easily in his delivery at times, but the negatives are all minor, correctable things. Good presence on the mound.

It seems to me, that the Mets fan base is in favor of doing whatever it takes to land Johan Santana. At MetsBlog yesterday, Matthew Cerrone discussed potential trades and ultimately concludes that he’d pull the trigger on a deal for Johan Santana, which would give up 4 pitching prospects, probably Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra in addition to Carlos Gomez.

Earlier today, Anthony posted his case for unloading the farm for Mr. Santana.

I’m here to convince you otherwise.

By trading four pitching prospects, plus the very ‘toolsy’ Carlos Gomez for Johan, its essentially mortgaging most of our farm system in favor of winning right now, as well as mortgaging all of our financial flexibility because we’d have to sign Johan to the 7 year deal he seeks, hovering arounds $20 million a year.

We’re all crying for “Freddy Coupon” to open up the wallet for Johan now, and we’ll be set. So we trade for him, but then we want a new LF after Alou is gone, but wait, we’ve given up our financial flexibility on Johan. But it’s a double whammy. Having less financial wiggle room would be OK—if you had people in the farm system who could be used as replacements. However, those players who could be useful at the Major League level anytime soon will then be a part of the Minnesota Twins organization.

So what would we be getting with Johan?

He’ll be 29 when the season starts. Granted we’ll probably get a few years of very solid production out of him, but there are so many variables that can come into play with a pitcher, mainly injuries. There is always the possibility he tears his rotator cuff, a ligament in his elbow and requires serious, career threatening surgery. That leaves us with millions of dollars on the table that handcuff our franchise for years. Even less daunting, is the chance he develops minor injuries as he ages such as recurrent hamstring problems that allow him to make only 25 starts a year. He could even age poorly and we’re stuck with an expensive, unproductive pitcher for a couple years. Injury concerns may seem far fetched, but pitchers’ injuries are so unpredictable and unreliable, and I’m not comfortable investing that much talent and money in a guy that only plays every fifth day.

Injuries aside, he has a 4.41 post season ERA, so we can be sure he’ll carry us to that postseason title. (heavy sarcasm)

Should we lock up Oliver Perez long term, after this following season we’ll only have two shoe-ins for our rotation in 2009: Perez and John Maine. By trading for Johan, we have a third mainstay in our rotation for years to come, but we have to look elsewhere for starters four and five. Our system will be depleted, and our wallet will be emptied into the hands of Johan Santana, so we’ll likely be left with unfortunate options as our fourth and fifth starters.

We don’t know what type of careers Mulvey, Pelfrey, Humber and Guerra will have. Guerra is 18 and everybody seems to rave about him. Everybody seems to really like Mulvey too. However, people seem to be down on Pelfrey and Humber. Humber is still recovering from Tommy John Surgery, and if you look at the numbers, starters bounce back two years after surgery. Best example: Chris Carpenter. Let Humber regain arm strength and we’ll see what comes from that. People express concern over Pelfrey’s lack of a second pitch, but I’ll take a 6′7″ 23 year old with a mid 90 mph sinker any day. It would be a grand mistake to sell low on a prospect, as we would be doing with Pelfrey and Humber.

The way things are looking now, unless either the Twins or Red Sox cave on their demands its very possible Johan will be a free agent next year. Do we not have the patience to wait a year and save the five top prospects we’d be losing?

In addition to Santana, C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Brad Penny can all become free agents next year. Save five prospects to have one season’s patience. If everybody is so gung-ho about being impatient and demanding to win now, why was everybody in such an uproar when Milledge was traded?

Beyond the four top pitchers we could lose, Carlos Gomez is faster than Jose Reyes–according to Reyes. He’s less developed at the plate and plays a less important position, but you can’t teach being tall and you can’t teach being fast. Alou is presumably gone after this year, and Church is solid but not a long term answer. Gomez would be great to groom for 2009 and Church could hold the fort until Fernando Martinez is ready.

We can sign somebody such as Bartolo Colon or Freddy Garcia to fill in this year, and next year pounce on the strong pitcher market.

In summation:

• We’d be investing all of our financial flexibility in one player, and that player only plays every fifth day.
• Its very possible we’d be able to go after him in free agency after this season, and we’d be sacrificing five top prospects in order to get one extra year of Johan.
• While they probably will never be as good as Mr. Santana, we have yet to see what our prospects can do and we’d be selling low on Pelfrey and Humber despite the facts we have reason to have a positive outlook for them.
• Gomez has speed that comes along once in a long time, and it’d be disappointing to see him develop into a star so far away from us, especially because we have a hole in the OF opening up next year.

I’m all in favor of trading for Santana. But four pitching prospects plus Gomez? No thank you. Take out one of the pitchers, and leave us with something to work with, I’ll probably bite. But all those prospects is just taking our chips and pushing them all in on this hand (this year) something we feel pressured to do after The Collapse, but in truth–by not making this trade we might be less likely to win this year, but we can maximize our winning over the next ten years.

Hot Foot is going to present both sides of the debate as to if the Mets should meet the reported demands of the Twins to offer either Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez along with three pitching prospects or one of Gomez or Martinez and four pitching prospects for Johan Santana. I will be presenting the case for, and later today Andrew Beaton will present the case against.

I want to preface my case by saying I have a sneaking suspicision that the Mets are simply trying to make it seem like they’re making an effort to appease fans, but don’t want to make the commitment in money or prospects it would take to land Santana. My other suspicion is that the reason the Mets reportedly declined the deal was because they believe the Twins will simply take the offer to the Yankees and Red Sox and use it as leverage. The only way the Mets can make this offer is if the Twins are forced to take it or leave it.

If the Mets can have them meet this demand, I believe the Mets should make the deal. While they would be giving up pretty much every top prospect in their system, if any of these players were to meet their potential the Mets would still likely come up on the better end of this deal. The chances of any of them becoming as good as Johan Santana are remote at best.

The other consideration is that the Mets have two high picks in the upcoming draft, one of them the 18th overall pick, which will quickly replenish their system, along with Omar Minaya’s declaration that the Mets will seriously consider not going by the MLB guidance to not pay above slot. The Mets have been good citizens while teams like the Yankees have scooped up players like Philip Hughes and Joba Chamberlain by paying for players other teams passed on to appease the Commissioner.

You cannot be paralyzed with the fear that a player you trade for could get injured. Any player could get injured. If you operated under this kind of neuroticism, you would never make any deal.

The other argument against is the money you would have to devote to Santana. I believe Santana will eventually sign for between $21 to $22 million a year for 6 years. He is likely more interested in the years than getting more money per year.

The Mets have all sorts of new revenue streams, a new stadium, a new television network, and $20 million a year from Citi for naming rights, which pays for most of Santana’s contract. I don’t believe this deal would seriously affect their ability to make other deals in the future.

The Mets problem with pitching started with the rotation not holding down their end of the bargain enough and left the bullpen overworked and out of gas by the time the Mets truly needed them in the final two months of the season. Santana would bring much needed stability and provide a bona fide young proven ace for the foreseeable future to go along with a powerful core of Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Maine and Perez.

Missing out on opportunities to get the top value for your prospects is as foolish as holding onto them and never benefiting from what they can do for your long and short term goals. Much like holding onto a hot Wall Street stock too long only to watch it drop to the floor, one must get optimal returns on their investments.

The Mets traded Lastings Milledge at the lowest point of his value. That my friends is what I would describe as a very poor business decision. What I am advocating here is that the Mets deal their prospects for optimal value. I can’t think of a better pay off on their prospect portfolio than to acquire the best young pitcher in baseball in return.

To balk at the idea of adding one additional player in this deal, be it Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, or Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber, Mike Pelfrey, or Deolis Guerra is foolish. The chances that any of those players having a career like that of Johan Santana are not good. It is better to have a bird in the hand than two in the bush.

Johan instantly gives the Mets a jolt, not only by solidifying their rotation, but by bringing legitimacy to the team in the same way Pedro Martinez did as the Mets turned the corner in the beginning of the Minaya administration.

The time has come for Minaya to make another bold move. The Mets have been a good team over the past two years but have not been able to get over that final hurdle and return to the World Series.

Make the move Omar, before they change their minds.

The following is an unconfirmed rumor:

According to WFAN, the Mets are set to make an offer of OF Carlos Gomez, SP Deolis Guerra, and SP Kevin Mulvey for Athletics SP Dan Haren and RP Kiko Calero.

Haren, 27, started 34 games for the A’s in 2007 and went 15-9 with a 3.07 ERA. Calero, 32, went 1-5 for the A’s last season with a 5.75 ERA in 40.2 innings pitched.

At his blog minorleagueball.com, John Sickels has posted his 2008 edition of the New York Mets Prospects. Fernando Martinez ranks in at #1 followed by in order Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, and Kevn Mulvey. John ranks Philip Humber at #7.

I am a big fan of Jon Niese’s but I dont feel he should be ranked ahead then Humber. Other then that, for the most part though, I agree with his list.

Overall our system has some talented pitchers with some good potential such as Scott Moviel, Brant Rustich, Eddie Kunz, & Nathan Vineyard who could possibly make an impact at the big league level this year, but when you look at the hitters all you see is Fernando, Gomez, and possibly Mike Carp becoming successful major league players. Unfortunately this shows how weak the Mets really are offensivley in the system.

Nick Evans and Brahiam Maldonado are two guys that definatley get overlooked in the Mets farm system and I am very excited to see what they both do in 2008.

John Sickels at his blog minorleagueball.com, feels the Mets are rushing their prospects Fernando Martinez, Deolis Guerra, and especially Carlos Gomez through the system too fast.

One comment he writes about Gomez is:

He’s a remarkable athlete with plus speed, a great glove, and offensive potential. But his bat is unrefined. His plate discipline is poor, his power is undeveloped, and he needs regular playing time get his swing in gear and work these issues out. Regular playing time in Double-A and Triple-A, not in the majors. Sticking him in the regular lineup in ‘08, like the Mets are talking about, is a huge risk for his long-term development, and an unnecessary one.

I could see his point about Fernando or Deolis but last year the Mets were dropping like flies in the outfield and Gomez was pretty much the only option to go with inside the system wise. With the re-signing of Moises Alou for LF, Carlos Beltran in CF, and Lastings Milledge in RF and Endy Chavez as our 4th outfielder I don’t see any room for Gomez. I highly doubt well see much of Gomez in 2008 unless theres some more injuries similar to last year’s situation.

Theres also the chance of the Mets trading Milledge during this off season but if that happens I feel the Mets will definitely try and do anything to keep Gomez in AAA for most of 2008 because of how he performed last year doesn’t make it seem he would be ready this year to be a regular in 2008 lineup.

Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra all made it on to Baseball Prospectus' Future Shock list of the top 20 right handed pitching prospects in baseball…

7. Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Age: 22.6 H/9: 7.57 BB/9: 3.08 K/9:
10.18

The most well-paid pitcher in the 2005 draft, Pelfrey signed too
late to make his debut last year, but he reached the big leagues this season
after just 88 pro innings. At 6-foot-7, Pelfrey gets a strong downward plane
on a sinking 92-95 mph fastball that has touched 98, and he commands the pitch
well when many young and tall pitching prospects struggle to find a consistent
release point. For anyone who saw his four big league starts, in which he had
a 5.48 ERA and a sub-standard 13/12 K/BB ratio in 21.1 innings, Pelfrey's
issues were clear. While the fastball is plus-plus, both his curveball and
changeup are no more than average, and he lost confidence in the pitches,
learning a difficult lesson about the need for a three-pitch arsenal. He's
expected to get another look in September as the Mets put things into cruise
control, so we'll see if he's made any adjustments. The secondary pitches
don't have to be great, but he will need them to keep hitters on
their toes.

14. Phil Humber, Mets

Age: 23.7 H/9: 6.99 BB/9: 2.52 K/9:
9.65

Another one of those pitchers who had Tommy John surgery,
returned quicker than expected and has looked as good as he ever did, if not
better. Pitching very well in Double-A, both he and Pelfrey will compete for
Opening Day rotation slots in 2007.

19. Deolis Guerra, Mets

Age: 17.4 H/9: 6.75 BB/9: 4.39 K/9:
7.18

His ratios aren't great, but this is a guy born in 1989
(feel old yet?) who is already in the Florida State League and holding his
own. Sitting at 89-91 mph with plenty of projection thanks to a 6-foot-5, 200
pound frame, Guerra's changeup is already a solid offering and his curveball
has made great strides. The Mets need to slow down his development, but his
ceiling is sky high.

Deolis Guerra was promoted from Low-A Hagerstown to the High-A St. Lucie Mets yesterday. The young hurler is making his way through the Mets system at a breakneck pace.

The Mets 2006 top draft pick Kevin Mulvey makes his debut at Double-A tonight for the Binghamton Mets.

Mack's Mets posts an interesting article of minor leaguers who might have worn out their welcome in the Mets system and might be clogging up the system. Mack gives a list of players who might be good candidates for a flushing to make room for new talent.

Mack also makes a great observation that, although the Mets seemed to have some issues right now with their starting pitching, soon they could have a surplus of young major league ready arms.

Mets Low-Class A Hagerstown Suns RHP, Deolis Guerra makes another appearance on the Baseball America Hot Sheet this week. It is his third appearance this year, and possibly the youngest player as well.

Fernando Martinez fell into the Not-So-Hot-Sheet

Here's a rundown of this weekends minor league action courtesy of the fantastic Toby's Mets Minor League Report…

Norfolk Tides (AAA)

Saturday

Edgardo Alfonzo drilled a homerun and
drove home three in a 2-4 night in support of MacLane.  The only other Tide with two hit was Tagg Bozied who was 2-3 with a solo HR
and two runs scored. 

Catcher Yunir Garcia started his first game for
Norfolk, after
one pinch hitting appearance, and was 1-3.

Sunday

Sandy Martinez slugged
a walk-off homer in the ninth inning to lead the Tides to a win at Harbor Park, he also
drove in a run with a fourth-inning double.

Heath Bell
(3-2) picked up the win in relief of Jose
Lima who was pitching a shutout until surrendering four runs in the sixth
inning.

Binghamton Mets (AA)

Saturday

Jorge Padilla doubled twice in a 2-4
performance with two runs scored. 

Chase Lambin launched a solo HR as
well.

Sunday

St Lucie Mets (A+)

Saturday

Caleb Stewart won this game with a
three run HR in the bottom of the ninth for St. Lucie. Stewart
also doubled and scored twice in a 2-5 night. 
Carp, in addition to starting the ninth inning rally doubled and drove
home a run. 

Sal Aguilar turned in a nice start,
allowing two runs in seven innings.  He struck
out two and walked two.

Carlos Muniz blew the save in the ninth
by giving up a run, but Stewart’s blast made him a winner.

Sunday

Jose Coronado’s
three-run, eighth-inning single proved to be the margin, as St. Lucie battled
back from a big deficit and shaky starting pitching to beat Vero Beach at historic Holman Stadium.  (Ed: If you had trouble with the concept of a
three-run single, you weren’t alone. 
Coronado himself scored the third run on the play on a throwing error on
Vero’s catcher.  This, my friends, is
minor league baseball.)

Carlos Muniz
pitched the final out of the game to pick up his 27th save of the season.

Hagerstown Suns (A-)

Saturday

Deolis Guerra (5-7) allowed just one run in his five innings on two hits.  He walked three and struck out three,
lowering his ERA to 2.35.

Centerfielder
Sean Henry, who was converted from
SS this year, and promoted this week from Kingsport,
was 2-3 with two doubles.

Sunday

Jeramy Simmons (1-2) was sharp through seven innings, allowing
just two runs and four hits, but ran out of gas in the eighth, allowing a pair
of singles and then a double, which scored a run, to start off the inning.

Ryan Meyers couldn’t put out the fire,
giving up a single and two more runs before finally quelling the uprising.

Kevin Tomasiewicz slammed the door and
picked up his 15th save.