Billy Wagner didn’t seem very optimistic about the Mets earlier this offseason, his comment to Marty Noble on Mets.com show he’s much more confident in light of recent events.

“Whenever it is, wherever it is, I can’t wait,” closer Billy Wagner said. “We’ll all be looking forward to it. It’s going to be like it was two years ago, when we all came together. The Mets already had a good team, and then they brought in Carlos Delgado and Paulie [Lo Duca] and Duaner [Sanchez] and [me].

“We were excited the first day the whole team was in camp, and it kept building up. We couldn’t wait for the season to start.”

I’m happy to hear Country Time perking up. I like how Wagner tells it like it is, even if some fans may disagree. He’s not going to tell you what you want to hear, so when he says he’s excited with the current roster, you know he means it.

Over the next week, I’ll be breaking down the things that have to go right for the Mets this year if they want to make the playoffs.

Note: All of this is done assuming we do not make any significant acquisitions of any sort, be it through trade or a free agent signing.

First and foremost, if the ‘08 Mets want to succeed, their bullpen will need to be strong.

Even though I think both of them have their mental lapses, I am fairly confident Billy Wagner and Aaron Heilman will hold their own as a strong closer and a strong set-up man respectively.

However, you need more than two people to have a good bullpen. If I had to take a guess, the Mets will carry 12 pitchers. Subtract four starters that will start the season on the roster (no reason to start the season with 5 starters), Wagner and Heilman, you have six slots left. As of now, I give those spots to Pedro Feliciano, Scott Schoenweis, Duaner Sanchez, Jorge Sosa, Matt Wise and Juan Padilla. However, Steven Register could easily take Juan Padilla’s spot, as could a long reliever.

Assuming that is the general gist of our bullpen, these are the things that need to happen for our bullpen to be strong:

• Duaner Sanchez returns to his pre-taxi crash form. Before his crash, Sanchez had a 2.60 ERA in 49 games, which is close to irreplaceable. While Heilman is a work horse, he can go through rough spells and sometimes needs someone else to cover the eighth inning. Sosa showed flashes of brilliance out of the ‘pen last year, but he doesn’t seem ready to be our second righty out. A strong Duaner would not only provide us with many innings if high quality relief, but give more rest to Heilman, Sosa etc. Sosa especially seemed to need a rest down the stretch, pitching 12 innings in September while registering a 6.57 ERA.
• The re-birth of Scott Schoenweis. I know, you probably hate him. But let’s give him another shot. Booing him clearly hasn’t helped, as he had a 6.91 ERA at home this year, while a 3.26 ERA on the road. So maybe lets let him feel comfortable, and he’ll do better, can we give that a shot? Also, Willie has to learn how to use The Schoe more effectively. Lefties hit a mere .206 against him last year, while righties managed to tee off of him for a batting average of .316. Then, why did Willie let him face 136 righty batters? If we need a righty out, why not turn to Pedro Feliciano, who righties hit a poor .221 against. He clearly has talent (1.86 ERA in April) so lets give him another shot, give him a clean slate and let him try and impress us.
• The Development of Jorge Sosa. Sosa started of his tenure as a Mets’ reliever very well. In his first 11 innings as a reliever, he gave up only one run. His first full month as a reliever, August, he had a 3.00 ERA in 18 innings. Perhaps due to fatigue, and not being used to the schedule of a reliever, Sosa struggled in September towards a 6.57 ERA for the month. However, that month of August showed us what he can do. Should his arm strength and durability as a reliever improve, he can hopefully build on those August numbers. And if he turns out to be a solid middle-reliever, Omar might have found himself a shiny diamond in the rough with his signing.
• The success of one of Matt Wise or Juan Padilla/Steven Register. It’s unrealistic and almost unnecessary to think that you need the whole bullpen to be great. However, if you have a weak rotation, you do need most of it. One of the back end guys, whether it be Matt Wise, Juan Padilla or Steven Register has to step-up and surprise people. At first glance, Wise looks mediocre: 4.19 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP last year. However, if you take a closer look, he had a 2.70 ERA through July 23. Down the stretch he failed, but he was brilliant for the first 3 1/2 months of the season. We saw what Padilla could do in 2005, when he posted a 1.49 ERA in 36.1 innings. However, after Tommy John Surgery, we need to wait and see if he can return to anything near to his 2005 form. Finally, Steven Register, who the Mets selected in the Rule V draft this year. Register has never been above AA, where last year he posted a 4.03 ERA while recording 37 saves for the Rockies AA affiliate. At 24, he’s the most unproven and must unknown candidate in this group.

With a rotation that will most likely look like: Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, John Maine, Orlando Hernandez and Mike Pelfrey, a strong bullpen will be neccesary. Pelfrey, Maine and Perez will all be erratic, while Pedro and El Duque are both aging and struggle to go deep into games. Duaner has shown he can be great, Schoenweis deserves another chance, Jorge Sosa has shown he can be solid and we might still need some help from the back of the ‘pen. All in all, if our bullpen can pump out a solid season, our weak starting pitching will seem to be a much smaller issue than it actually is.

Marty Noble on Mets.com speaks with the always outspoken Billy Wagner, who gives his thoughts on the Mitchell Report.

Wagner comments on how all players might now be looked at with some suspicion.

“When it says 96, 97 on the gun, on the scoreboard, you know someone’s going to ask, ‘How can a guy 5-10 throw that hard?’ Then they’ll start wondering, ‘Did he use? Did he use and just not get caught?’”

Wagner talks about the great players before him, like Mickey Mantle and Sandy Koufax, who have had their achievements diminished by cheaters.

“Those guys are hurt by this, too,” Wagner said. “The things they did have been matched now. No one’s wondering about them. But when you’re 10th on some list of all-time stats, you’re 10th. I don’t think it’s going to say ‘Four of the other guys used steroids.’

To read more of Wagner’s comments head over to Marty Noble’s article on Mets.com

During his interview today on WFAN with Mike and the Mad Dog, Omar Minaya touched on a few key points on everyones mind. Minaya stated throughout the interview that he is looking to upgrade defensively, which explains why he wanted to bring Brian Schnieder aboard. Minaya feels that the team is going in a new direction and that Schnieder would make a better fit that Paul LoDuca.

When asked what size role Ryan Church will have with the Mets in 2008, Minaya indicated that Church will be the starting RF, attributing his number last year to the size of RFK stadium. Minaya also touched on the Mota/Estrada trade, saying that his numbers were fine, but he struggled too much in key spots.

When asked about Billy Wagner’s comments about the team, Minaya said that he brought Wagner in and explained what was going on and Wagner seemed pleased at some of the ideas, but Minaya also told him to be more careful about what he says to the media.

I think that Minaya made some great points and once everyone calms down, they will start to understand him better. I agree the team needs to upgrade defensivley. What’s the point of having good pitching if there is no team behind him?

Billy Wagner is extremely candid about his feelings about the Mets chances entering 2008 in an article on Mets.com

“Someone asked me what I thought of our team,” Wagner said in an interview with MLB.com. “I said, ‘What team?’ We’ve lost 13 games [Glavine's victory total], and now we are going have to give up something to get those games back. I’m afraid we’re just going to create other holes if we give up a [Lastings] Milledge, a [Mike] Pelfrey or a Heilman.”

Wagner expresses his concern about the loss of Tom Glavine.

“I’m trying to be positive. I’m saying we have some good players. But I’m worried. The Braves are getting better, and the Phillies made a move [acquiring Brad Lidge]. We’ve brought back some people, and that’s good. But losing Tom is big. It’s a lot more than the 13 games he won. It’s what he did for John Maine and Oliver Perez and how professional he was. People want to focus on one bad game or just the day-to-day stats. I do that myself when I read about football. By I’m involved in this, and I know how important [Glavine] was. We don’t have him, and we don’t even get to the last game with a chance. He was one of the few leaders we had.

“The Mets didn’t do anything wrong. I know he wanted to be home more. I understand that, but where does that leave us?”

Wagner is adamant about not trading Aaron Heilman.

“We’re down 13 games already, plus all the games Tom deserved to win,” he said. “Without Aaron, it’d be like another 10 or 12. It would be a big chance to take. Without Aaron, [the bullpen] don’t even exist. No way you can trade him.”

Wagner goes on to question using Orlando Hernandez out of the bullpen, the lack of clear roles for members of the bullpen, and his displeasure with the Mets letting Paul Lo Duca walk.

Some people will say Billy should shut up and pitch, that they don’t pay him to make personnel decisions. I happen to appreciate his honesty. Someone has to keep it real, and express their concerns about the team if they have them. Its up to Omar Minaya to take his opinions into consideration, or not, but I happen to agree with every single one of them.

I know a lot of folks aren’t thrilled with Heilman, and of course Billy is going to defend his teammate, but if you want to get rid of him, you need to replace him with a suitable arm. I think people tend to magnify Heilman’s faults and overlook the quality innings he provides. I don’t think he’s all that easy to replace. I do believe you have to trade him if as part of a package he nets you a top flight starting pitcher in return.

Keep in mind though, in order to be a playoff team, I don’t think you can make it without a solid 7th and 8th inning bullpen arm. The Mets will have to address that in some way. You have no idea what to expect from Duaner. There are very few reliable bullpen arms, but Ron Mahay and David Riske in my opinion are two guys who fit that description and should be pursued.

The importance of middle relievers in baseball has increased in recent years, as the trend of starting pitchers failing to go deep into ballgames continues. The Hardball Times provides a graph of the decline in the number of innings pitched by starters over the past hundred years.

With this increased importance, comes a price. In the New York Times, Murray Chase points out that relievers had an average salary of $1,433,992 in 2006 up from $1,316,384 in 2005.

The Mets currently have Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, John Maine, and Mike Pelfrey tentatively penciled into their rotation for 2008, with a fifth pitcher likely to come from free agency or via trade this winter. The uncertainty of the Mets rotation makes the need a quality bullpen even greater. The inconsistency of the Mets rotation last season caused the Mets starters to fail to get deep into ballgames, and put a great degree of pressure on an overworked Mets bullpen.

The Mets enter 2008 with a bullpen consisting of Billy Wagner, Scott Schoeneweis, Duaner Sanchez, Jorge Sosa, Pedro Feliciano, Joe Smith, Juan Padilla and possibly Orlando Hernandez.

The Mets will likely use Aaron Heilman as a trading chip to acquire a front line starter.

As we scan the free agent landscape this off season, there are quite a few quality arms available to upgrade with. Two big name closers are on the market, Francisco Cordero and Eric Gange, but will want to close so would be of no use to the Mets.

Ron Mahay, Jeremy Affledt, David Riske, LaTroy Hawkins and Scott Linebrink, Octavio Dotel, and Byung-Hyun Kim are some of the other arms who might be worth a look as middle relievers. Chad Cordero is a longshot, as the Nationals have asked for Carlos Gomez in return and Cordero is also likely to perfer a closing role.

Mahay was 3-0 last year, with a 2.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 67 innings for the Braves. He is considered the best of the middle relievers on the market and has attracted the Yankees interest.

David Riske was 1-4 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 69.7 innings for the Royals. Riske hasn’t had an ERA over 4 since 2002.

Matthew Cerrone on Mets Blog relays information from Mike Pagliarulo who advises the Yankees, who Mark Feinsand of the Daily News said has interest, to steer clear of Linebrink, whose stats indicate a ‘structural decline.’

Octavio Dotel was traded to the Braves from Kansas City at the trade deadline and compiled a 4.11 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP. He spent time on the disabled list with a shoulder strain in August.

The Orioles could look to move Chad Bradford, who is signed to a three year, $10.5 million contract. He compiled a 3.34 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP.

The Yankees have reportedly offered Mariano Rivera $45 million over 3 years, according to Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. 

$15 million a year would be a record contract for a relief pitcher. Billy Wagner is making $10.5 per year on a contract he signed in 2005.

If that deal is accurate, there is no way Mariano leaves the Yankees. I don’t see how anyone can match that offer.

Dave Lennon of Newsday reports that Billy Wagner feels ready for the season. Lennon says Wagner is physically ready for the season, as well as feeling anxious, and bored of the preseason. Wagner told him:

I believe that point Wagner makes right there, is one thats been argued several times in the comments here, at metsblog, and in the Bleachers.

Lennon further reports that Wagner feels his slider and fastball are both into regular season form. Wagner will pitch twice more before the end of training.

The article also has a nice little peak inside the bullpen corner of the clubhouse, talking of Wagners trash talk to the other pen guys. Wagner and the Show getting along has been mentioned before, but its always good to see that the guys can get along off the field.

Marty Noble over at mets.com is reporting that Smith and Sele will both be joining Chan Ho Park in the bullpen on the 25 man roster. The rest of the bullpen would then consist of Wagner, Heilman, The Show, and Feliciano.

While the article claims that nothing is set in stone, the fact that its appearing on the official team page as news, one would assume that barring any major problems or injuries (or a Sele or Park temper tantrum) thats the bullpen. This at least answers some questions, though still no word on if they plan on going with four starters for the first stretch, and if they do if they'll carry an extra arm in the bullpen (perhaps Sosa) or an extra bat on the bench.  Speaking of which, while its generally assumed Newhan is getting that last bench spot, still no official word there either.

Regardless, it seems that much like of the readers and posters here, the Mets brass believes Burgos needs more time in AAA.