It’s an old Sabermetrics argument. Just like how batting average is a somewhat poor and antiquated judge of offensive success, a pitcher’s win-loss record is not the end-all, be-all of pitching prowess.

So why does the media still look to it so often? From time to time, ESPN commentators will describe a pitcher’s worth solely by his win-loss record, ignoring everything else. Cy Young voters have done the same in the past.

In 2005, Roger Clemens posted a 1.87 ERA, but because of terrible run support, his record was only 13-8. He was largely considered the third-best candidate behind Dontrelle Willis, who was 22-10 with a 2.63 ERA, and the eventual Cy Young award winner, Chris Carpenter, who was 21-5 with a 2.83 ERA. So Carpenter’s ERA was almost a full point higher than Clemens, but the Cardinals’ run support basically gives Carpenter the award.

Over in the AL that year, a bigger robbery took place. Bartolo Colon went 21-8 but had a very middle-of-the-pack sounding 3.48 ERA. Meanwhile, Mariano Rivera had the best year of his career, converting 43 of 47 saves with a 1.38 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. But that’s just not as flashy as the title of “20-game winner.”

The people who really suffer from the misconception of the win-loss record are those who pitch seasons with miserable luck. Matt Cain went 7-16 last year. Sounds like a terrible year, but he had a 3.65 ERA, a modest 1.26 WHIP and batters were just hitting .235 against him. His record happened because the Giants suck; just ask Chris Russo.

It seems Aaron Harang is currently having a Cain-esque season with the Reds. He has a Zito-esque record of 2-8, but his ERA is just 3.86 with a WHIP of 1.29. He has 78 strikeouts to just 20 walks. Harang is actually putting up very similar stats to the numbers that have netted him 16-win seasons the past two years.

On a much smaller scale, hurlers like Johan Santana should have better records. People look at Santana’s record of 7-4 and wonder why he isn’t on pace for a 25-win season or something. Not only is his record perfectly acceptable, but if it was closer to his stats, he’d be Cy Young dueling with Brandon Webb. On April 6, Santana gave up just one earned run in seven innings pitched and lost. In his last start, he gave up two earned runs in seven innings pitched. Throw in that other Atlanta start where Santana gave up 12 hits but limited the damage to three earned runs, and maybe Santana could easily have 10 wins right now.

With pitching, its best not to always dwell on win-loss record because overall team success plays far too heavy a variable for such an individual statistic.

According to the Boston Globe, recently released Red Sox pitcher Julian Tavarez told former teammate Bartolo Colon that he wants to pitch for the Mets.

Bartolo Colon is a good friend of Julian Tavarez. He said his old buddy wants to pitch for the Mets. At least that would his first preference, but there’s no indication yet whether the Mets or any other team are willing to sign the free agent righty.

Tavarez appeared in nine games this season for the Sox. In 12 innings of work he gave up 18 hits, 9 ER and 6 K.

Jeff Horrigan of the Boston Herald.com writes pitcher Bartolo Colon can leave the Red Sox if he is not called up to the big club by May 1. Colon has the contractual right to leave the organization, but Red Sox manager Terry Francona wants Colon will stick around.

“It’s kind of obvious he’s not going to be ready to pitch for us, so I think I’m hopeful something will get done there,” Francona said. “There probably needs to be some flexibility there, hopefully.”

I wonder if Omar might look into signing Colon if he leaves Boston.

Hat-tip to MLBTR for link

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN is reporting that the Red Sox have signed pitcher Bartolo Colon to a minor-league contract.

Colon will be a low-risk/high-reward signing for Sox. He has played only 28 starts due to his battle with shoulder and elbow problems since the beginning of the 2006 season.

Tim Dierkes on MLB Trade Rumors reports that Bartolo Colon has missed his last two winter league starts.

It is unclear whether this is do to injury or because he’s awaiting a deal to a major league club. It has been reported that he has yet to crack 90 mph on his fastball.

Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors lists the top 50 remaining free agents.

Barry Bonds, Mike Cameron and Bartolo Colon are listed as the top three in that order. Dierkes had originally predicted Colon would land in Seattle, which he believes could still could happen but sees the Royals, Nationals, Mets, Rangers, and Phillies as possible destinations as well.

In an article for Fox Sports, Dayn Perry takes a look at the top eight remaining free agents.

He includes three people on the list that have been linked to the Mets: Bartolo Colon, Carlos Silva and Livan Hernandez.

He singles the Mets’ out in his section on Colon, writing:

For a team in need of rotation help (talking to you, Mets), Colon makes a great deal of sense. In all likelihood, he’ll be willing to sign a low-base, incentive-laden contract with perhaps a vesting option thrown in for good measure. He’s a risk worth taking.

In another article for Fox Sports, Tracy Ringolsby discussed the needs for every contender.

For the Mets he writes their need is a starting rotation:

The Mets are going to have to pony up and make an impact deal to add a starter who is capable of pitching them into the postseason — or else heads will roll. Tom Glavine is gone and Pedro Martinez is fading. They need Santana — or a miracle.

Assuming we don’t land Johan Santana, I am strongly in favor of pursuing Colon.  He won the Cy Young in 2005, and we don’t need to commit money long term to him, as we would have to do for Kyle Lohse or Carlos Silva.  Even if we trade for Joe Blanton, which is very possible and I do support, he’s not the ace we’re seeking and while it is risky, Colon can be that ace for us.

And Ringolsby is really going out on a limb by saying we need rotation help. [heavy sarcasm]

Dan Graziano of the Star Ledger reports that the Mets have asked about Dontrelle Willis, Ben Sheets, and Roy Oswalt and were told none of them are available. The Mets also have interest in Bartolo Colon and continue to view Livan Hernandez as a secondary pitcher after they try to land a front end starter. The Phillies, Cardinals, Nationals, and Astros have interest in Livan as well.

Omar Minaya is set to meet with Octavio Dotel and Shawn Chacon agents today.

Peter Gammons of ESPN has reported that the Mets don’t currently have the trading chips to acquire one of the Athletics pitchers, Dan Haren or Joe Blanton. They were also denied a trade for Erik Bedard late last week. With that said, it may be time for the Mets to look elsewhere. Here is a list of potential targets and what they are valued at.

LHP Dontrelle Willis (Florida Marlins) - The Marlins have stated that they are willing to listen to offers for Willis, though they are expected to retain him for the 2008 season, or at least until the July 31st trading deadline. Willis is coming off his worst season of his career, going 10-15 with a 5.17 ERA. Throughout the past three seasons, Willis’ strikeout to walk ratio has decreased each season. In 2005, Willis struck out 170 while walking 55. The following season in 2006, he notched 160 strike outs while walking 83. Finally, last season, he struck out 146 and walked 86.

Potential Suitors: Mets, Reds, Mariners, and Diamondbacks

Cost: Two young players

---

Bartolo Colon (Free Agent) - Colon could definitely be a high-reward/high-risk signing for any team that picks him up. He has played only 28 starts due to his battle with shoulder and elbow problems since the beginning of the 2006 season. Omar once traded prospects Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips in a deal for Colon when he was general manager for the Expos.

Potential Suitors: Mets, Padres, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Mariners, Nationals

Cost: One-year, $9 million deal or two-year, $16 million

---

Carlos Silva (Free Agent) - The 28-year old Silva currently leads a very thin market of starting pitchers. He went 13-14 with a 4.19 ERA for the Twins last season and figures to cash in at around $10 million a season with another team. Plenty of teams remain interested in him, though most of them plan to use him as a fall back option and prefer to look to the trade market before committing a large contract to him.

Potential Suitors: Mets, Royals, Cardinals, Tigers, Phillies

Cost: 4-Years, $40 million

---

Livan Hernandez (Free Agent) - Hernandez is an innings eater. He has not pitched less than 200 innings in any season since 1999. He went 11-11 with a 4.93 ERA for the Diamondbacks last season. The Mets lost a 200 inning pitcher in Glavine to the Braves via free agency and they need to find a way to fill those lost innings. The team have made it known that Livan is more likely a Plan C or D. The fact that his half-brother El Duque is on this team and his history with Omar in Montreal makes him a strong candidate to be a Met in 2008.

Potential Suitors: Mets, Astros, Cardinals

Cost: Three-years, $21 million

---

Hiroki Kuroda (Free Agent) - The 33-year old right hander went 12-8 in 26 starts with a 3.56 ERA for the Hiroshima Carp last season in Japan. Scouts project him to become a middle of the rotation starter in the MLB. Conflicting reports have come out recently that the Mariners have have offered him a contract. One report says that it was for three-years, $30 million. The other states that they offered him four-year, $44 million.

Potential Suitors: Mets, Mariners, Dodgers, Royals, Phillies, Cubs, Rangers

Cost: Four-year deal, $45 million