In a blog for Fox Sports, Birk writes an informative post discussing this off season’s moves in the NL East. He writes:

I’m not very impressed with the off season moves in the NL East. I think every single one except the Nationals has taken a step back.

He later profiles each team, and he concludes his section on the Mets with:

Moving past that, do they have enough starting pitching? Will Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez stay healthy? Will Oliver Perez remain effective? Will Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber step up to claim the fifth spot and provide insurance against one of the other rotation members? That’s a lot of question marks. With the pending return of Duaner Sanchez, the signing of Matt Wise, and most of last year’s bullpen returning, the Mets should consider moving Aaron Heilman back to a starting role. All considered though, they still have a strong shot at winning the division.

Informative post, worth checking out. I really do agree that Heilman should be given another shot at the rotation, if and only if the Mets were to sign a guy like Octavio Dotel who could competently fill his spot. Sure Duaner might be able to do that, but with so much uncertainty in the rotation, you don’t want to place all your bets on a guy returning from shoulder surgery.

At SI.com, John Donovan gives his list of top 10 steroid free players in baseball.

Notably, he writes:

Pedro Martinez — Injuries have cost Martinez the chance at some more wins, but when he’s healthy and on — as he should be this year — Martinez is without peer. His lifetime 1.03 WHIP is the best among active players and third best of all-time. A first-ballot electee, no doubt.

Over this last week, I’ve broken down down the things that have to go right for the Mets this year if they want to make the playoffs.

Thus far, I’ve discussed the 5th spot in the rotation, Maine and Perez, Pedro, and the bullpen.

Note: All of this is done assuming we do not make any significant acquisitions of any sort, be it through trade or a free agent signing.

Today, we’ll be discussing Jose Reyes.

So many times I’ve heard (or something along the lines of): The Mets’ offense lives and dies with Jose Reyes.

Lets take a closer look at that:

Before the all-star break, Jose Reyes was batting .307 with 46 SBs, an On Base Percentage of .387, 4 HRs and 35 RBIs. Before the all-star break, the Mets as a team had a .286 batting average, while scoring 394 runs as a team, 21st in the MLB.

After the all-star break, Reyes had his well chronicled struggles. He bat .251 with 32 SBs, 22 RBIs, 8 HRs and worst of all, a .316 OBP. Capping off his abysmal second half, Reyes bat .205 in September while only being safe on 5/9 stealing attempts. However, the Mets offense boomed in the second half. The Mets bat .284 after the all-star break, while coming 5th in the majors with 410 runs. Even more astonishing, was despite Reyes’ struggles, the Mets were 4th in the majors with 157 runs and they bat .284 as a team.

So in terms of hitting, the offense clearly did not just do what Reyes did, so I really hope nobody ever tells me again, “The Mets’ offense lives and dies with Jose Reyes.” But, was Reyes’ offense more of an influence on the team’s pitching?

I already read off Reyes’ stats, so I won’t repeat them; let’s look at the pitching numbers. Before the all-star break, the Mets ERA was 3.91, 5th in the league, while holding batters to a mere .241. After the all-star break, the Mets ERA was 19th in the league at 4.66, while batters hit .270 against the team. While Reyes hit his low, so did the pitching; in September they had the 5th worst ERA at 5.11, while batters hit .275.

So if somebody does want to tell me that the Mets pitching lives and dies with Reyes, I’d have a tougher time arguing.

So what do we need from Reyes this year?

Consistent production. He has to keep his batting average around .300 the whole season, rather than failing the team down the stretch when they need him. He also has to stop worrying about hitting the long ball. With somebody as talented as him, the HRs will come, and he need not worry about forcing them. Reyes clearly has talent but he has to work on his mental game.

He has to stop putting so much pressure on himself, because it’s making him crack. Between all the pop-ups and poor production, Reyes seemed very worn down by the end of the year. Beyond taking pressure of himself this year, he has to learn to deal with pressure. He’s a budding star, playing SS in New York City. It is unacceptable, to bat .259 with runners in scoring position, and even worse to bat .195 with runners in scoring position and 2 outs.

As we saw between The Collapse and our other losing streaks throughout the year, we have to be more consistent as a team, and consistency begins with the first pitch thrown, and the first at bat of every game.

According to the Miami Herald, Mike Piazza’s agent Dan Lozano has reached out the Marlins to gage their interest in re-signing Piazza. According the article, Piazza would look forward to finishing his career in Florida. However, the Marlins do not seem interested in the former All-Star catcher.

I guess Piazza really enjoyed that week he spent with the Marlins in 1998. As always, I always hope for the best for Mike.

Over the next week, I’ll be breaking down the things that have to go right for the Mets this year if they want to make the playoffs.

So far, I’ve discussed Maine and Perez, Pedro’s Arm, and the Bullpen.

Note: All of this is done assuming we do not make any significant acquisitions of any sort, be it through trade or a free agent signing.

Today, I’ll be discussing the 5th spot in the rotation.

Assuming no trades are made, the first four spots in the rotation will likely go to Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez and Orlando Hernandez.

Now, lets take a look at that 5th spot.

The favorite: Mike Pelfrey.

Last year, Pelfrey struggled mightily as a starter for the Mets. In 13 starts, he was 3-8 with a 5.58 ERA in 69.1 innings of duty. Even more troubling, was the fact that he allowed 36 walks compared to only 43 strikeouts.

Lets take a closer look at his year last year. After making the rotation after a solid spring training, Pelfrey quickly found himself at 0-5, and playing for the AAA Zephyrs. After getting called back up in July, Pelfrey found himself at 0-7. He then got demoted again.

However, Pelfrey showed lots of promise when the rosters got expanded in September, and he was brought back up. And keep in mind, September was a month when there were few bright spots for the Mets. On September 1st, Pelfrey threw 6 innings of one-hit ball, while striking out 7, to beat the Braves and register his 1st win of the season. He then won his next start against Houston, and recorded a 3rd victory of the month (and season) against the Nats later that month. However, he did lose one game on the 28th to the Nats, which would prove to be crucial.

Everybody knows how Pelfrey has an incredible sinking fastball that ranges in the mid-90’s. However, people doubt the quality of his secondary pitches. However, if Pelfrey can command his fastball enough and avoid walks, he can succeed on the major league level as he proved in September.

Next Guy Up: Phillip Humber

Humber was a college star at Rice, and was in their rotation as a freshman. The Mets took him with the 3rd pick in the draft, and after a long wait, gave him a $3.7 million signing bonus. However, in 2005 Humber hurt his elbow, resulting in Tommy John Surgery.

Since then, Humber has pitched in the minors and a couple brief stints in the Majors, however has not had the endurance to really prove himself. He got off to quick starts in most of his games, but fatigued down the stretch. Most people who get Tommy John Surgery need two years to regain their endurance, so look for him to have a strong rebounding season this year, should he get the opportunity in the big leagues.

The Dark Horse: Kevin Mulvey

Mulvey is known for having good composure. He features a fastball that sits in the high 80’s and low 90’s, which also has good sink. Look for him to surprise during spring training. Although it is such a small window to preview a pitcher, people have come out of no where and earned rotation spots for the Mets in previous years, like Brian Bannister. Look for him to really put the pressure on Pelfrey and Humber during spring training, to make sure they know if they mess up, he’ll be in AAA waiting to take their spot on the big club.

Now, what do the Mets need from this 5th starter spot?

Realistically, you can’t expect too much from your last spot in the rotation. However, when you’re putting a young gun in there like Pelfrey, Humber of Mulvey, they have the potential to surprise. While that is great, they have to be consistent. They can’t be going out there every 5th day blowing games early, and not giving the team a chance to win. They also can’t get out of games to early, and kill our bullpen. Whoever earns that spot, needs to go out there, not shoot to ‘wow’ people but aim to give the Mets lineup a chance to win.

Over the next week, I’ll be breaking down the things that have to go right for the Mets this year if they want to make the playoffs.

Already, I have discussed Pedro’s arm, and the bullpen.

Note: All of this is done assuming we do not make any significant acquisitions of any sort, be it through trade or a free agent signing.

Today, I’ll be looking at what we need from John Maine and Oliver Perez this year.  First lets look at Maine’s numbers from last year:

Maine had a phenomenal first half of the season, going 10-4 with a 2.71 ERA and a .214 opposing batting average.  However, after the all-star break Maine struggled.  The second half of the season, Maine was 5-6 with a 5.53 ERA and a .261 opposing batting average.  His final numbers were 15-10 with a 3.91 ERA and a .235 batting average against.

After seeing him throw only 15 starts in 2006, the Mets really couldn’t have expected any better from Maine last year.  In those 15 starts, he was 6-5 with a 3.64 ERA and a .211 opposing batting average.  However, in those starts he gave up a whopping 15 home runs.

This year, the Mets need at least the same type of performance from Maine.  Even though he left town on the wrong foot, Tom Glavine’s consistency will be difficult to replace, and Maine has to be one of the guys that steps up.  While expecting him to put up numbers the way he did before the all-star break last year is ridiculous, Maine has to be more consistent throughout the year.  A large part of the collapse was set in motion by poor performances from guys like Maine (despite his two gems in September).  Especially in the weak hitting NL, Maine needs to post an ERA hovering around 3.50 while collecting 15-17 wins.

Now Perez:

Last year, Perez was 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA and a .229 opposing batting average.  However, Perez often had difficulty with walks, issuing a total of 79 last year in 177 innings pitched. 

In 2006, where he split time between the Pirates and Mets, Perez struggled.  He was 3-13 with a 6.55 ERA while batters hit a strong .293 against him.  So, in truth–despite his universally recognized talent–last year’s performance by Perez was really a minor miracle.  He added 12 wins to his line, had three fewer losses and his ERA dropped by over 3 runs a game. 

Expect big things from Perez this year.  Beyond the fact that he’ll almost certainly benefit from another season under the tutelage of Rick Peterson, it’s a contract year for Ollie.  On the open market, a lefty who won 15 games and struck out 174 people will definitely cash in.  The Mets need consistency from Perez.  Despite his strong numbers, Perez would fall into phases where he can’t find the strike zone or just can’t get his slider across the dish.  The Mets need more consistent performances day in and day out from Perez this year.  They need him to walk less people, and win another game or two.

With an oft-injured ace in Pedro Martinez, an oft-injured starter in Orlando Hernandez, and very shaky 5th spot in the rotation, the Mets need Perez and Maine to build on their solid performance to last year, if they want to lead the Mets to the playoffs. 

Over the next week, I’ll be breaking down the things that have to go right for the Mets this year if they want to make the playoffs.

Yesterday, I began the series by discussing the bullpen. 

Note: All of this is done assuming we do not make any significant acquisitions of any sort, be it through trade or a free agent signing.

The Mets need 25-30 starts from Pedro Martinez.  That means Pedro can take his one 15-day DL stint of the year, which he seems to take annually.  But he can’t take any more than that. 

People called it a minor miracle that Pedro was able to return 8 months after rotator cuff surgery.  In those 5 starts he had last year, he was 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA in 28 innings of duty.  People said he was in the best physical shape of his career, having bulked up his upper body a fair amount.

The rest of our rotation will most likely be: Oliver Perez, John Maine, Orlando Hernandez and Mike Pelfrey.

I’ll discuss the rest of the rotation tomorrow, but that group of kids and Grandpa Duque, need Pedro’s veteran leadership and consistency.

Pedro staying healthy will be no easy task.  Through all of 2006, he had the nagging toe injury, which limited him to only 23 starts that season.  Throughout the rest of his career, he has been sidelined with other injuries like his calf and hamstring. While he always has the vigor of a young phenom, let’s not forget: Pedro is 36 years old.   

With doubts about the health of El Duque, and already a very shaky 5th spot in the rotation most likely being given to Mike Pelfrey, the Mets cannot afford another hole in the rotation and force Phillip Humber into the rotation when he’s not yet ready, especially if we realistically expect to compete. Even so, after a devastating collapse last year, the team cannot afford to have its leader go down once again.

Andrew Beaton was born and bred in New York City and lives there to this day.  He was raised to be a Mets fan and never doubted his allegiance to Mr. Met and company.  In a recent family roots activity, he recently discovered he has a common ancestor with Mr. Met, which only makes him a more fanatical fan.  Even if he had a choice, Andrew’s wonderful two older brothers vowed to sacrafice him to the baseball Gods should he ever pledge his allegiance to a team other than the New York Mets. Luckily, they only had to consider sacraficing him once, but that was totally unrelated to his allegiance to the Mets. Andrew is looking foward to a day when he can feel the bliss that he did when he saw Benny Agbayani’s HR zoom over the wall in the 2000 NLDS, putting Aaron Fultz and the Giants to shame.
 
Andrew is also a die-hard Jets fan, but unfortunatelly a Knicks fan.  Feel free to pester him at andrewlbeaton@gmail.com.