Matthew Artus at Always Amazin takes a look at Aaron Heilman’s poor start this season where he has given up 2 runs in three straight outings.

Artus wonders what the future holds for Heilman beyond this year with talk by Willie Randolph and Billy Wagner regarding him being the future Mets closer.

Yesterday, Jon Heyman told WFAN that “Other teams wonder why he is not a starter.”

The uncertainty of Duaner Sanchez is putting a lot of pressure on Heilman to lock down that 8th inning. In a perfect world Heilman would be the 7th inning guy, with Duaner setting up Wagner. That remains to be seen, and hopefully when Duaner is expected to return next week, we will see guys settle into their roles and get the job done.

Talk today has several parties mentioning Aaron Heilman, who’s strongest desire has always seemed to be a starter, as the Mets closer of the future.

First, Billy Wagner tells the Star Ledger that Heilman will be the closer once Billy is gone

“Heilman’s the closer of the future. They just don’t know it yet. Heilman will be the closer here in two years.”

Wagner, always known for speaking his mind, further goes on to say Heilman has not just the ability pitch wise to do well in the closer role, but he has the mindset to do well there as well.

But wait…there’s more. John Delcos, over at LoHud, indicates Willie Randolph has expressed similar thoughts, saying that Heilman one day being a closer is a ‘possibility.’

Its an interesting thought, though with Wagner having some time left on his contract there’s plenty of time left to let it play out. Heilman is young, and talented. The only downside has been that he has never seemed to want to be in the bullpen, and he’s been extremely open on that point. There seems to be no indication that the Mets will ever consider him for a starter role, as we’ve seen numerous other young arms get the call from the minors, or older arms get brief contracts (Chan Ho, Lima) over giving Heilman that shot. So realistically, it all boils down to would Heilman be willing to give up a shot to sign elsewhere as a starter and embrace a new role as a closer? Because before we get into a ‘could he do it’ talent wise, the ‘would he do it’ as a personal choice has to be answered. Because saying Heilman is the closer of the future won’t make it happen, just ask Dip N Dots.

With the NCAA tournament starting today, I thought I’d point out that Aaron Heilman attended Notre Dame, which is a 5 seed. Also, Scott Schoenweiss attended Duke, a 2 seed in this year’s bracket.

For more about the players and their picks, head over to Metsblog.

If anybody cares, my final four is Georgetown-UNC and Duke-Pitt

According to Adam Rubin, John Maine and Aaron Heilman debated the scientific possibilities of Transporting (scroll down to 9am). The former engineering student Maine thinks it’ll never work, while Heilman appears to believe it will.

We’ve come a long way from having Carl Everett telling reporters dinosaurs don’t exist. Though I’m not sure exactly how much engineering Maine really studied in school, and I’m pretty sure UNC isn’t exactly the MIT of the deep south. I didn’t even know they taught science, let alone engineering, that far into the south.  

It appears that Joe Smith will have to prove he deserves to be part of the Mets bullpen last year after he struggled through a dead arm period in the later part of last season. On Mets.com, Mary Noble discusses Joe Smith’s chances of starting the season with the big league club.

Noble talks about how new Met Ryan Church had firsthand experience with Smiths late season decline.

Their shared experience began — and ended — in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 17. A 1-1 pitch from Smith in the seventh inning became a pinch-hit two-run home run by Church and another unsightly episode in the Mets’ slippery-slope September slide.

Smith had faced the Nationals three times previously, faced eight batters, struck out four and allowed one to reach base. Those appearances happened in April, and the difference between April and Sept. 17, according to Church was “about six or seven miles an hour.”

Smith will have a tougher time making the team with Duaner Sanchez and Matt Wise in the mix. Sanchez, Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoeneweis, Pedro Feliciano and Jorge Sosa are are all most likely penciled in already. Smith, Wise, Ruddy Lugo, Juan Padilla, Brian Stokes and Tony Armas Jr. will fight it out for the likely seventh and final spot.

Ben Shpigel of the New York Times runs down the some of the highlights of Day 3 at Port St. Lucie.

La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports that both the New York Mets and Minnesota Twins have discussed adding another player to the reported Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey deal. While the Mets view 19-year old prospect Fernando Martinez as ‘practically untouchable’, the two sides have talked about adding Scott Schoeneweis, Joe Smith or Aaron Heilman to the deal for Johan Santana.

The Yankees and Twins have discussed adding a third or fourth player to their proposed deal of Philip Hughes and Melky Cabrera.

The Red Sox have discussed tweaking the back-end of their current offers to make the deal happen, but the Twins still would have to work with either a deal led by outfield prospect Jacoby Ellsbury or another led by pitcher Jon Lester, but not both in the same deal.

Update 1/26 - 7:12 p.m. - It appears that Neal updated the article and now it does not include pitchers Scott Schoeneweis or Joe Smith.

In a blog for Fox Sports, Birk writes an informative post discussing this off season’s moves in the NL East. He writes:

I’m not very impressed with the off season moves in the NL East. I think every single one except the Nationals has taken a step back.

He later profiles each team, and he concludes his section on the Mets with:

Moving past that, do they have enough starting pitching? Will Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez stay healthy? Will Oliver Perez remain effective? Will Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber step up to claim the fifth spot and provide insurance against one of the other rotation members? That’s a lot of question marks. With the pending return of Duaner Sanchez, the signing of Matt Wise, and most of last year’s bullpen returning, the Mets should consider moving Aaron Heilman back to a starting role. All considered though, they still have a strong shot at winning the division.

Informative post, worth checking out. I really do agree that Heilman should be given another shot at the rotation, if and only if the Mets were to sign a guy like Octavio Dotel who could competently fill his spot. Sure Duaner might be able to do that, but with so much uncertainty in the rotation, you don’t want to place all your bets on a guy returning from shoulder surgery.

Over the next week, I’ll be breaking down the things that have to go right for the Mets this year if they want to make the playoffs.

Note: All of this is done assuming we do not make any significant acquisitions of any sort, be it through trade or a free agent signing.

First and foremost, if the ‘08 Mets want to succeed, their bullpen will need to be strong.

Even though I think both of them have their mental lapses, I am fairly confident Billy Wagner and Aaron Heilman will hold their own as a strong closer and a strong set-up man respectively.

However, you need more than two people to have a good bullpen. If I had to take a guess, the Mets will carry 12 pitchers. Subtract four starters that will start the season on the roster (no reason to start the season with 5 starters), Wagner and Heilman, you have six slots left. As of now, I give those spots to Pedro Feliciano, Scott Schoenweis, Duaner Sanchez, Jorge Sosa, Matt Wise and Juan Padilla. However, Steven Register could easily take Juan Padilla’s spot, as could a long reliever.

Assuming that is the general gist of our bullpen, these are the things that need to happen for our bullpen to be strong:

• Duaner Sanchez returns to his pre-taxi crash form. Before his crash, Sanchez had a 2.60 ERA in 49 games, which is close to irreplaceable. While Heilman is a work horse, he can go through rough spells and sometimes needs someone else to cover the eighth inning. Sosa showed flashes of brilliance out of the ‘pen last year, but he doesn’t seem ready to be our second righty out. A strong Duaner would not only provide us with many innings if high quality relief, but give more rest to Heilman, Sosa etc. Sosa especially seemed to need a rest down the stretch, pitching 12 innings in September while registering a 6.57 ERA.
• The re-birth of Scott Schoenweis. I know, you probably hate him. But let’s give him another shot. Booing him clearly hasn’t helped, as he had a 6.91 ERA at home this year, while a 3.26 ERA on the road. So maybe lets let him feel comfortable, and he’ll do better, can we give that a shot? Also, Willie has to learn how to use The Schoe more effectively. Lefties hit a mere .206 against him last year, while righties managed to tee off of him for a batting average of .316. Then, why did Willie let him face 136 righty batters? If we need a righty out, why not turn to Pedro Feliciano, who righties hit a poor .221 against. He clearly has talent (1.86 ERA in April) so lets give him another shot, give him a clean slate and let him try and impress us.
• The Development of Jorge Sosa. Sosa started of his tenure as a Mets’ reliever very well. In his first 11 innings as a reliever, he gave up only one run. His first full month as a reliever, August, he had a 3.00 ERA in 18 innings. Perhaps due to fatigue, and not being used to the schedule of a reliever, Sosa struggled in September towards a 6.57 ERA for the month. However, that month of August showed us what he can do. Should his arm strength and durability as a reliever improve, he can hopefully build on those August numbers. And if he turns out to be a solid middle-reliever, Omar might have found himself a shiny diamond in the rough with his signing.
• The success of one of Matt Wise or Juan Padilla/Steven Register. It’s unrealistic and almost unnecessary to think that you need the whole bullpen to be great. However, if you have a weak rotation, you do need most of it. One of the back end guys, whether it be Matt Wise, Juan Padilla or Steven Register has to step-up and surprise people. At first glance, Wise looks mediocre: 4.19 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP last year. However, if you take a closer look, he had a 2.70 ERA through July 23. Down the stretch he failed, but he was brilliant for the first 3 1/2 months of the season. We saw what Padilla could do in 2005, when he posted a 1.49 ERA in 36.1 innings. However, after Tommy John Surgery, we need to wait and see if he can return to anything near to his 2005 form. Finally, Steven Register, who the Mets selected in the Rule V draft this year. Register has never been above AA, where last year he posted a 4.03 ERA while recording 37 saves for the Rockies AA affiliate. At 24, he’s the most unproven and must unknown candidate in this group.

With a rotation that will most likely look like: Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, John Maine, Orlando Hernandez and Mike Pelfrey, a strong bullpen will be neccesary. Pelfrey, Maine and Perez will all be erratic, while Pedro and El Duque are both aging and struggle to go deep into games. Duaner has shown he can be great, Schoenweis deserves another chance, Jorge Sosa has shown he can be solid and we might still need some help from the back of the ‘pen. All in all, if our bullpen can pump out a solid season, our weak starting pitching will seem to be a much smaller issue than it actually is.

Over at SI.com, Jon Heyman gives the latest update on Erik Bedard. He goes on to say, “The Mets and Dodgers are at the forefront of talks involving Orioles ace lefty Erik Bedard, but Baltimore president/GM Andy MacPhail is expected to take his time.”

Heyman also says the Mets package appears to include Carlos Gomez, Aaron Heilman and Phil Humber, but they would consider alternating it if need be.

I am all for the Mets going after Bedard but this seems like a pretty steep price. If this is what it will take to get a top starter then the Mets should no doubt go for it, but it does leave a fairly large hole in the bullpen, which I believe was the Mets biggest problem last season. Say what you want about Heilman, but besides Wagner he has been the Mets most consistent reliever the past few seasons. Maybe Omar can sneek Chad Bradford into this deal who has also been rumored to be on the block.

Here’s a rundown of Hot Stove news this morning…

According to industry sources of the Baltimore Sun, the Orioles rejected a trade offer by the Mets for Erik Bedard which included d 21-year-old outfield prospect Carlos Gomez, reliever Aaron Heilman, 29, and a third player, believed to be right-handed starter Philip Humber, 24.

Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reports that the Mets most recent offer made for SP Dan Haren was considered more suitable for SP Joe Blanton.

Ken also notes that the A’s are no longer as interested in Mets OF Lastings Milledge and RHP Aaron Heilman as they were when they tried to acquire them for LHP Barry Zito in 2006. The A’s have found solutions for starters in the corner outfield spots and are looking for a long-term answer in centerfield. The A’s consider Milledge more of a corner outfielder. Carlos Gomez seems to be the more attractive option.

Milledge appeared in 14 games in centerfield last season in relief of Beltran who was injured, committing just one error and two assists in 120 innings.

Buster Olney on his ESPN blog writes of the matters that could complicate the trading of Johan Santana.

Among them is his no-trade clause, which he could use as leverage to block any deal where he doesn’t feel he will get his best return on a new deal.

On top of that, a team would need to part with a number of their best prospects, a proposition that could present another roadblock due to the fact that the Yankees are reluctant to give up Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Phillip Hughes, and the Red Sox may be unwilling to trade Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, and Jacoby Ellsbury on top of a $150 million contract extension.

The Mets seem more willing to deal their prospects, as Omar Minaya has stated that ‘nobody’s untouchable’ and he intends to upgrade his rotation this off season.

A package could include either Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez, or more likely Lastings Milledge, who has the most major league experience of the three, as the Twins want players who are major league ready in return, along with and pitchers Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber and Joe Smith.

Hot Foot reported earlier this week that Jim Callis of Baseball America doesn’t believe the Mets could put a package together that the Twins would be willing to accept for Santana. Callis believes the Mets should set their sights on Dan Haren instead. Ken Davidoff seems to agree, and writes of a Haren deal with the Mets on Newsday.

“Trade Aaron Heilman, Lastings Milledge, Kevin Mulvey and a lower-level prospect to the A’s for Dan Haren.The beauty of a Haren trade is that the Mets would be acquiring an ace for the price of a back-of-the-rotation starter. They would retain the payroll flexibility to go out and get Santana on the free-agent market a year from now, if Santana is still available, or Erik Bedard in two years.”

Olney wonders if a package of Milledge, Humber and Pelfrey would be enough weighed against the backlash new Twins GM Billy Smith would receive from fans for trading Santana.

Smith, in his first year as Twins GM, will look to shape his legacy in his first season. He could find that he may endear himself better to fans, however unlikely, by holding onto Santana, hoping he leads the Twins back into the pennant race next season rather than hand him over to the Yankees or Red Sox.