As the Mets enter the middle of April, I have some mixed feelings about this team. My concern grew out of one significant statement form Carlos Delgado, which basically showed complete ignorance to the situation at hand. Delgado is absolutely correct in that a loss to the Brewers is not a big deal. The loss itself is not the issue. It is the way in which the Mets lost that is troubling to me.

Every team will have losing streaks and periods of bad play. The difference between a bad team and a good team is that these streaks are few and far between. The difference between a good team and a championship team is that laspes in basic baseball skills are not tolerated. Mets fans aren’t upset that a batter strikes out. We are upset that with the bases loaded and a pitcher who can’t locate the strike zone, that the batter (and this can cover almost ever NY Met at the plate) is swinging at the first pitch. This is about execution. This is about this team NOT playing to their abilities. That’s why Mets fans are frustrated because we all know this team should play better. It’s one thing to lose because say Gabe Kapler had a hot day at the plate. It’s another when you have the bases loaded and can’t score a run.

The question I have is where is Willie Randolph in all of this? I can’t say what he is saying or doing in the club house. I’m not there obviously. However, if Willie is “angry”, well frankly that anger is not being advertised in the club house. I’m not asking for the Mets to feel bad, I’m asking them to get back to basics.

The good news is that the Mets aren’t the only team struggling in April. The Phillies and Braves are right along with the Mets. All three teams have been hit with some significant injuries or bad play. All three teams have issues in the bullpen. So time is certainly not running out for the Mets. However, perhaps the Mets should take some clues from the young Florida Marlins! The Marlins don’t have super stars and don’t exactly win pretty all the time. However, they stay within themselves and concentrate on the basics.

The other good news is that Duaner Sanchez is returning to the Mets! This is extremely important to this team. Duaner Sanchez could give Willie Randolph at least the option of going with Heilman/Sanchez in the 7th and 8th, followed by Wagner. Schoeneweis, Smith, Sosa, and Feliciano now can be reserved for either specific batters (lefties, righties) or if needed in the 6th. The bullpen can now return to close to what we saw in 2006, which would be a huge boost. That of course, is predicated on Willie Randolph using the bullpen correctly, of course.

So am I a tad ticked off? Yes, because I know the Mets should be playing better. Frankly, perhaps Mr. Delgado should wake up and realize that it’s not the lose but the way they lost that should concern him. However, there is hope and the motto of this team is Ya Gotta Believe!

The bad news is that the field conditions in the outfield are going to be very bad with over 3 to 5 inches of rain having fallen over Atlanta. However, the heaviest rain has pushed east and the back edge of the rainfall is moving quickly towards western Georgia.

Rain should begin to end by game time. With a delay to 5PM, dry conditions can be expected. Whether the field will be playable is a different question. High pressure will bring dry, cool, and windy conditions for Sunday with no impacts to game conditions.

The building of Citi Field right behind Shea stadium will have move impact than a significant lack of parking.  Although Shea Stadium is naturally considered a pitcher’s or neutral park due to dimensions of the park, due to the construction of Citi Field, Shea Stadium will have a feature in the outfield.

In order to understand the physics of the influence of Citi Field, one must examine the velocity of air flow around the overall stadiums combined, the tightening of the meso (small scale) gradient between the two stadiums, and finally other micro scale influences above 10 meters.  

Calculation and Procedures

I produced this study based on observations from past games including data from the National Weather Service from Brookhaven National Laboratories and personal game tapes and on line video data base from MLB.com.  Pictures of Citi Field and the position in relation to Shea stadium was provided by online sources from Mets.com and Metsblog.com.  Finally, calculations were made using basic velocity, pressure gradient, and wind shear stress equations.  These equations can be found at any college or graduate level physics literature.  Calculations were made based on a level of 10 meters or higher.  Calculations below 10 meters lead to significant error due to micro level influences like seat position and terrain (pitcher’s mound, dug outs, etc.).  

Before Citi

Before the construction of Citi Field, a strong 10 to 20 mph wind from the west, northwest, and north-north west would have a significant impact in the trajectory of a fly ball.  In most cases, a fly ball would be influenced by increased friction and thus peak and fall at a much faster rate.  Conversely, winds from the northeast, east, and southeast at a speed of 10 to 20 mph would support an increase in distance of the flight of a ball.  Finally, winds from the south and north would produce a wind trajectory from left field to right field and visa versa.  In most cases, this will have a neutral impact with winds below 15 mph.  However, above this speed, a baseball velocity will be impacted with, depending on the direction of the wind, would veer to the left or right.  This would decrease the distance of the fly ball from start to end, but also cause some rather tricky fielding conditions especially with a pop up fly ball.  

Post Citi

There are several impacts to consider with the Citi Field stadium nearly complete.  

Winds from W to NNW:

Based on the latest pictures seen on Mets.com and Metsblog.com, the impacts of west, northwest, and north-northwest winds will be significantly limited below 20 meters, which generally covers any fly ball hit at Shea Stadium.  There will be no inhibitor to a fly ball on windy days like in previous years.  However, this wind direction will not enhance a fly ball either.  In short, this wind direction will have a neutral influence when before there was a negative influence.  

Winds from E to SE:

When I looked at the influences of Citi Field on Shea Stadium from the winds listed above, the impacts become complicated and frankly rather interesting from a micro and meso meteorological point of view.  Citi field acts like wind blocker for Shea Stadium.  The air that flows into the stadium becomes trapped in a circulation for a time.  For winds under 10 mph, I calculated that the influences will generally remain neutral.  However, for winds above 10 mph, there is an increasing potential for a micro-scale low pressure circulation that would develop over the stadium.  This circulation develops due to what we call wind speed shear.  The reason why this shear develops is because the winds at field level will be much lower than at the Mezzanine and Upper box levels.  For example, a 15 mph wind at the Upper box levels will translate before the circulation begins to roughly 5 mph.  Now, this shear produces a circulation over time just above the field.  This circulation will produce a micro-scale “jet stream” directly over Shea stadium and carry over left and center field straight to Citi field.  As such, many fly balls that reach the Lodge and Mezzanine Levels or higher will in most cases become positively influenced and the velocity will increase along with the magnitude of distance.  Velocity will be influenced by speed rather than direction in this case.  In this case, winds above 10 mph will turn Shea stadium into a hitter’s park in my opinion.  

Winds from the South and North:

The main impact from Citi Field on Shea with this wind direction is the development of a strong jet stream from left to right and visa vera depending on wind direction.  Based on my calculations, these winds will have several minor impacts attributed to the stadium.  Pop ups over the outfield and in field will be influenced by a weak circulation that will generally circulation along the outline of Shea stadium.  In other words, while the jet stream described in the previous section will enhance the speed vector, this circulation will influence the directional vector.  So, if a fly ball is hit to right field with a southerly wind, the ball would be influenced to drift towards center.  Also, a potential home run ball with a southerly wind, with a direction towards right field might instead end up being blown foul.  These influences will have to be examined on a day to day basis.  

Conclusion

Based on the calculations I have produced, for the first time in Shea stadium history, this ball park will become a hitter’s park on days with the wind above 10 mph.  There will be limited negative impact to the trajectory of a baseball in the air with Citi Field situated currently.  

If you think it is wet outside in New York, just check out the Southeast! A cold front is slowly going to move through Atlanta over the next 48 hours, which means showers and thunderstorms will be moving through the area for tonight’s game and tomorrow afternoon.

There is a very good chance for a rain delay if not a rain out for both tonight and tomorrow afternoon. The main threat looks to be severe weather as locations to the northwest of Georgia have seen isolated tornadoes, small hail, frequent lightning, damaging winds, and very heavy rainfall that has caused some flash flooding. Therefore, there is a very good chance we all may be watching Mets Classics on SNY rather than the Mets and Braves at some point this weekend.

Through the blogosphere, Mets fans have been clamoring about being afraid of the Braves.  Personally, I don’t get this fear at all.  I would like to interject a little bit of reality to this irrational fear.  First and foremost, this is not 1995 or 2000 or even 2005.  

These Braves lack a bullpen.  Heck, they lack a closer!  These Braves lack a center fielder that seemed to catch anything hit in the air.  If you don’t think that’s important, ask anyone one of the pitchers over the past decade on this team.  This is a Braves team that so far this year has yet to hold a lead in a close game due to a bullpen with a 5.40 ERA and a 0-3 record.  The closer of this team can basically be described by a dart board.  Who should come into the 9th Bobby Cox?  I don’t think he knows either and I don’t blame him.  The plight of the bullpen can best be described by what I saw last night in the Braves extra inning loss where Bobby Cox had to put a pitcher in the outfield to allow him to pitch again later in the inning.  They ended up losing anyway.  

This is a Braves team that has already lost Mike Hampton to injury before even entering a game.  Not exactly a surprise.  This is a Braves team relying on a declining Tom Glavine and an already injured 43 year old John Smoltz.  I can promise you that if these two were on the Mets, the media would be claiming that both of these pitchers would never make it through the season.  However, because they are Atlanta, clearly the Braves can win the East according to some at ESPN.  The only pitcher who I feel is a challenge for the Mets is Tim Hudson, who goes tonight.  However, unless Hudson goes 9 inning tonight, the Mets have a great shot of taking out the Braves with that bullpen.  All John Maine has to do is keep the Mets in the game, which he is more than capable to do.

The Braves due have an explosive and impressive offense, however this offense lacks a true lead off hitter in my opinion.  They have power and will have the capability to mount a rally, but they aren’t at the level of the Mets nor the Phillies.  Once again, the lack of Andruw Jones in the middle of that line up will be noticed.  

All in all, from almost every aspect, the Mets are a better team by far.  The Mets have the best pitcher in baseball and two very impressive young pitchers that are coming into their own in Maine and Perez.  The Braves do not.  The Mets have a very strong bullpen, which (and I know it is only one series) is the best in the National League.  Oh yeah, and the Mets have a closer.  

This fear of the Braves is irrational and stems from the trauma that we all experienced in the 90’s and early 2000’s.  We will see this weekend that the Braves are pretenders and the real competition is not any team in the National League East, but the Mets themselves.  It was the Mets that defeated the Mets last year with bad play and unfocused players.  Nothing more than that.  Meanwhile, the Braves are nothing more than a .500 team when all is said and done.