I have a confession to make, I had lost my passion for the Mets.  I want to share this because I think there are other diehard Mets fans like myself who seemed to have lost something on the last day of 2007 and have been struggling with that loss through 2008.  It wasn’t like I didn’t care, I was just numb.  I had no feeling up or down about the Mets for some time now.  Mostly because my heart for this team was significantly injured in 2007 and more so after this year.  

It’s never good when you feel like you care more about the team than the actual players on the field.  I don’t think that’s reality, but that’s what it felt like.  For myself, I had a hard time writing anything about the Mets, which is why I’ve been absent for a while from here. 

However, today I felt that old passion come back.  The passion I felt in 2006.   It’s that I have excitement about this team again.  I have a feeling of confidence that these Mets, the 2009 Mets will care.  That they will finish what they started and not fall apart again.  However, this has nothing to do with losing or winning.  This has to do with the Mets playing up to their ability.  

At any rate, the 2009 Mets are putting together a team that will be better than 2006 as far as pitching and light years better than last year.  The reason?  The Mets have effectively put together a tandem of Rodriguez and Putz that will end games on average in the 7th or 6th inning.  Think how happy Santana is right now.  Imagine how many wins that he can rack up knowing that the 8th and 9th inning is locked up now.  This is also great news for the rest of the bullpen as well.  Now Feliciano and Sanchez can be used properly in the 7th inning and not have to be overworked.  Imagine a healthy Duaner Sanchez in the 7th followed by Putz and Rodriguez to shut the door.  

This Mets team is a team that should be in the high 90’s in wins with this pitching.  The offense with this situation will not have a lot of pressure on it to produce and those 30 games that were lost in the 7th, 8th, and 9th are more likely to be wins this year.  So if you have been struggling with the same feelings I have had for some time, wake up and smile my friends.  The Mets are back and possibly could be better than ever.

As reported by Matthew Cerrone on Metsblog, the main topic on WFAN this morning has been the way Jose Reyes reacted to a 3 run homerun that put the Mets ahead of the Phillies in a huge game.  What did Jose Reyes do?  He put his hand up in the air between first and second and then quickly ran around the bases.

I’m sorry, am I missing something here?  After months of fans complaining that this team lacked emotion or acted like the members on this team didn’t care if they won or lost, are we Mets fans really complaining about this?

Personally, I want Reyes pumping his fist.  Slapping his hands.  I don’t care if he moonwalks when coming to the dug out.  If Jose Reyes continues to put up these numbers, .297,.434, .335, and .845 (Avg, SLG,OBP, and OPS), this whole conversation shouldn’t even come up.  Who exactly are we afraid of offending?  The Phillies with a guy like Shane Victorino?  The fact of the matter is that this team NEEDS Reyes’ attitude and electricity.  The Mets need him to be happy and enthusiastic.

As for the Phillies and their announcers, what did you clowns say with Victorino’s clap in Reyes’ face on Tuesday night?  The Phillies are the same fans by the way with the class to literally attack Mets fans at Philadelphia no matter the age.  Plus they have a mutant freak for a mascot.

So I say to Jose Reyes, you be you.  You clap, dance, heck do the moonwalk to home plate when playing the Phillies.  You have one Mets fan that doesn’t mind and will probably cheer you on as you do so.  You be you Reyes, and when the Mets win this division I don’t think anyone will care anyway.

Someone at the New York Post does not seem to understand journalism.  Yesterday, the staff writers at the New York Post deliberately misquoted Jerry Manuel when he said the following:

That’s a good question. I don’t know if it drains a team as much as it affects that individual. I think it does have an effect on the individual more so than the team…It’s painful, but it’s also growth.

I’m going to say this, and I hope you all don’t take it wrong, I know you’re going to run out of here with something crazy on this: It’s very, very fertile ground for growth at Shea Stadium. It’s fertile ground for a team’s growth and development. Sometimes, fertile ground has fertilizer. But, fertilizer is a good thing. It’s a good thing. You get the greatest results, you get the most beautiful plants, when you put it in that type of fertile soil. That’s what we have the opportunity to do. Don’t take that wrong, because I know what you’re going to do with it.”

The beat writer from the New York Post, Bart Hubbach, then follows on Monday morning with this great headline: “Manuel Likens Angry Mets Fans to Fertilizer, New Manager Puts Foot in Mouth Again.” As the story continues, somehow Jerry Manuel angered Mets fans with these comments.  However, on Mets Blog, 98%, that is NINETY-EIGHT PERCENT of voters or 3,753 Mets fans said they were not offended.  Apparently 88 voters were having a bad day or a rough Monday morning.

So naturally, after the New York Post clearly misquoted Jerry Manuel, the Post sends Luke Dennehy and Ed Robinson out to Shea to find three knuckle heads who were actually offended.  Here’s my suggestion to Jeff Spiletic, Jamed Scalada, and Rich D’Agostino, chill out and next time READ the quote.  These people from their statements clearly didn’t read the excerpt, but just wanted to see their names in the paper.  Meanwhile, the New York Post now seems to be on a campaign to attack another New York manager, specifically a New York Mets manager.

I know there is a lot of competition in the Newspaper business these days, which is a good thing.  However, falling to the lowest denominator is no way to win a battle for viewers.  Instead of sending a couple of beat writers out to find three guys who happen to be offended (they may also be offended by loud music, bad jokes, or vanilla ice cream as well).  Perhaps the New York Post could have apologized for the misquote, however that would involve integrity, which I don’t think the New York Post has these days.

The Mets enter this weekend with 35 wins and 36 loses, clearly a record of mediocrity.  However, while the Mets have been floundering, the rest of the National League and specifically the National League East has not been able to run away either.  As of today, the Mets are only 4 games back in the loss column from the Philadelphia Phillies.  All in all, while the Mets clearly have not performed to their capabilities, the Mets are also not out of this National League East.

However, as much as everybody is looking forwards to a new start with Jerry Manuel and look at the fact the Mets won a series against a very good and tough Angels team on the road, there is something the Mets have to prove.  Consistency.  We’ve all seen this before again and again.  The thought that THIS game or series is the turning point.  This is the point the Mets turn it around.  That was the thought when the Mets beat the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 4th.  The same idea was echoed about the Mets crushed the Yankees for two games on May 17th and 18th.

Each time we as fans got our hopes up, the team went in the tank.  Each time the Mets lost games to teams they should have crushed like the Washington Nationals.  The one that hurt the worst to me was getting swept by the Braves in not only a double header but in all four games.  The one thing the Mets have not been is consistent.  At times they look like the team from 2006 that crushed the National League then out of no where the Mets play like the team from 2004, which was old over rated, and lacked fire.  But hey, they battled right?

The point here is that this is put up or shut up time for the Mets for the final time.  If the Mets are going to be a factor in the second half.  If the Mets want to be taken seriously, then the Mets MUST win each series from tonight on through July 16th.  From now through July 13th, the Mets play at Colorado, hosts Seattle, host the Yankees (double header included), go to St. Louis, go to Philadelphia, and finish up the first half hosting the Giants and the Rockies.  In those series the Mets play three teams they should beat, one team we Mets fans want to beat (Yankees of course), and two teams the Mets must beat in order to get back into this race.  The Mets have an opportunity to back up their talk with actions.  Should the Mets take series from the Cardinals then they will have taken steps to closing in on the Wild Card lead, and obviously defeating the Phillies on the July 4th weekend would go a long way to climbing into first place.

So here is the challenge to convince me that this team is ready to turn the page, the Mets must go 16-8 through July 13th.  That will put the Mets at 51-44 and close to first place if not in first place.  There is no reason why this team can not do that if the Mets play to their true ability.  So here’s opportunity knocking.  Will the Mets answer?

Enough is enough.

That’s how I feel as a Mets fan. I can’t speak for every Mets fan out there, and I’m not going to try. What I am going to do is tell everyone how I feel about this team at this point.

I’m a man that deals in facts. The fact of the matter is that this team has been playing like a .500 baseball team since June 2006. The record has shown them to be playing a bit better at times, but I’m talking about their style of play. Call it laid back. Call it what ever you will. However, for over a year this team has not played with the killer instinct that gave them a huge lead in 2006 and had them dominating and getting up for big games. I’ll give you an example.

Think back to May 5th, 2006. The Mets are playing the Atlanta Braves. A team that has cursed this organization for over a decade. A game in which the Braves had taken a 6-2 lead in the bottom of the 7th, we saw the 2006 Mets rally in the 7th to tie the game. The game would go on to the 14th inning, where ironically a Jorge Sosa gave up the game winning run to David Wright. The point here is that the 2006 Mets fought for that win. They didn’t take it for granted. Don’t be deluded that the team’s talent was better, because it actually wasn’t. Remember, the Mets had a rotation that was falling apart. The bullpen was being used every day. Floyd also had been in a funk and no one knew what Xander Nady was. Sound familiar? The difference here is that the 2006 Mets had no taste of championship. They wanted this win and fought for it. Now can anyone point to me a game in the past year where this team wanted to win as bad as the fans want them to win.

Now, I’m not a psychologist and I’m not going to attempt to be one. However, I can tell you this. The majority of the players on that team still play on this team. I honestly hope that last night in the closed door meeting, some form of this point was discussed. It’s one thing to lose, it’s another to completely give up. That’s exactly what we’ve been seeing over the past two months. The 2006 Mets played a lot of ugly games. The difference was that they overcame their mistakes and found a way to win

The mantra that this season is early is true and should give some hope to all of us. There are a lot of games to play and the Mets are one game back in the loss column. It’s not like this team is in the situation of the Yankees (heaven forbid). What better way to turn this season around than with your ace on the mound? This is more than wins and losses. This is about attitude.

I wish I knew how to adjust this attitude. There is no one reading this that can do anything about it to be honest. All the booing and yelling on the local sports radio won’t do anything to change the mind set of this team. Nor can a manager. Any manager. This is about the players. Plain and simple. Either they all want it or they don’t. Simple as that.

The afternoon Mets VS Cubs game may be significantly delayed this afternoon as a significant band of heavy rain slowly moves towards Chicago. The good news is that the majority of the severe thunderstorms will remain to the south. However, a large band of stratoform heavy rain will slowly move through the windy city this afternoon and will last for several hours.

Given this is the only time the Mets go to Chicago this year (weird, I know), I expect that MLB will make the Mets and Cubs wait out the rain for some time. The good news is that the rain will end by the late afternoon (after 5 PM) with clearing by this evening.

As the Mets enter the middle of April, I have some mixed feelings about this team. My concern grew out of one significant statement form Carlos Delgado, which basically showed complete ignorance to the situation at hand. Delgado is absolutely correct in that a loss to the Brewers is not a big deal. The loss itself is not the issue. It is the way in which the Mets lost that is troubling to me.

Every team will have losing streaks and periods of bad play. The difference between a bad team and a good team is that these streaks are few and far between. The difference between a good team and a championship team is that laspes in basic baseball skills are not tolerated. Mets fans aren’t upset that a batter strikes out. We are upset that with the bases loaded and a pitcher who can’t locate the strike zone, that the batter (and this can cover almost ever NY Met at the plate) is swinging at the first pitch. This is about execution. This is about this team NOT playing to their abilities. That’s why Mets fans are frustrated because we all know this team should play better. It’s one thing to lose because say Gabe Kapler had a hot day at the plate. It’s another when you have the bases loaded and can’t score a run.

The question I have is where is Willie Randolph in all of this? I can’t say what he is saying or doing in the club house. I’m not there obviously. However, if Willie is “angry”, well frankly that anger is not being advertised in the club house. I’m not asking for the Mets to feel bad, I’m asking them to get back to basics.

The good news is that the Mets aren’t the only team struggling in April. The Phillies and Braves are right along with the Mets. All three teams have been hit with some significant injuries or bad play. All three teams have issues in the bullpen. So time is certainly not running out for the Mets. However, perhaps the Mets should take some clues from the young Florida Marlins! The Marlins don’t have super stars and don’t exactly win pretty all the time. However, they stay within themselves and concentrate on the basics.

The other good news is that Duaner Sanchez is returning to the Mets! This is extremely important to this team. Duaner Sanchez could give Willie Randolph at least the option of going with Heilman/Sanchez in the 7th and 8th, followed by Wagner. Schoeneweis, Smith, Sosa, and Feliciano now can be reserved for either specific batters (lefties, righties) or if needed in the 6th. The bullpen can now return to close to what we saw in 2006, which would be a huge boost. That of course, is predicated on Willie Randolph using the bullpen correctly, of course.

So am I a tad ticked off? Yes, because I know the Mets should be playing better. Frankly, perhaps Mr. Delgado should wake up and realize that it’s not the lose but the way they lost that should concern him. However, there is hope and the motto of this team is Ya Gotta Believe!

The bad news is that the field conditions in the outfield are going to be very bad with over 3 to 5 inches of rain having fallen over Atlanta. However, the heaviest rain has pushed east and the back edge of the rainfall is moving quickly towards western Georgia.

Rain should begin to end by game time. With a delay to 5PM, dry conditions can be expected. Whether the field will be playable is a different question. High pressure will bring dry, cool, and windy conditions for Sunday with no impacts to game conditions.

The building of Citi Field right behind Shea stadium will have move impact than a significant lack of parking.  Although Shea Stadium is naturally considered a pitcher’s or neutral park due to dimensions of the park, due to the construction of Citi Field, Shea Stadium will have a feature in the outfield.

In order to understand the physics of the influence of Citi Field, one must examine the velocity of air flow around the overall stadiums combined, the tightening of the meso (small scale) gradient between the two stadiums, and finally other micro scale influences above 10 meters.  

Calculation and Procedures

I produced this study based on observations from past games including data from the National Weather Service from Brookhaven National Laboratories and personal game tapes and on line video data base from MLB.com.  Pictures of Citi Field and the position in relation to Shea stadium was provided by online sources from Mets.com and Metsblog.com.  Finally, calculations were made using basic velocity, pressure gradient, and wind shear stress equations.  These equations can be found at any college or graduate level physics literature.  Calculations were made based on a level of 10 meters or higher.  Calculations below 10 meters lead to significant error due to micro level influences like seat position and terrain (pitcher’s mound, dug outs, etc.).  

Before Citi

Before the construction of Citi Field, a strong 10 to 20 mph wind from the west, northwest, and north-north west would have a significant impact in the trajectory of a fly ball.  In most cases, a fly ball would be influenced by increased friction and thus peak and fall at a much faster rate.  Conversely, winds from the northeast, east, and southeast at a speed of 10 to 20 mph would support an increase in distance of the flight of a ball.  Finally, winds from the south and north would produce a wind trajectory from left field to right field and visa versa.  In most cases, this will have a neutral impact with winds below 15 mph.  However, above this speed, a baseball velocity will be impacted with, depending on the direction of the wind, would veer to the left or right.  This would decrease the distance of the fly ball from start to end, but also cause some rather tricky fielding conditions especially with a pop up fly ball.  

Post Citi

There are several impacts to consider with the Citi Field stadium nearly complete.  

Winds from W to NNW:

Based on the latest pictures seen on Mets.com and Metsblog.com, the impacts of west, northwest, and north-northwest winds will be significantly limited below 20 meters, which generally covers any fly ball hit at Shea Stadium.  There will be no inhibitor to a fly ball on windy days like in previous years.  However, this wind direction will not enhance a fly ball either.  In short, this wind direction will have a neutral influence when before there was a negative influence.  

Winds from E to SE:

When I looked at the influences of Citi Field on Shea Stadium from the winds listed above, the impacts become complicated and frankly rather interesting from a micro and meso meteorological point of view.  Citi field acts like wind blocker for Shea Stadium.  The air that flows into the stadium becomes trapped in a circulation for a time.  For winds under 10 mph, I calculated that the influences will generally remain neutral.  However, for winds above 10 mph, there is an increasing potential for a micro-scale low pressure circulation that would develop over the stadium.  This circulation develops due to what we call wind speed shear.  The reason why this shear develops is because the winds at field level will be much lower than at the Mezzanine and Upper box levels.  For example, a 15 mph wind at the Upper box levels will translate before the circulation begins to roughly 5 mph.  Now, this shear produces a circulation over time just above the field.  This circulation will produce a micro-scale “jet stream” directly over Shea stadium and carry over left and center field straight to Citi field.  As such, many fly balls that reach the Lodge and Mezzanine Levels or higher will in most cases become positively influenced and the velocity will increase along with the magnitude of distance.  Velocity will be influenced by speed rather than direction in this case.  In this case, winds above 10 mph will turn Shea stadium into a hitter’s park in my opinion.  

Winds from the South and North:

The main impact from Citi Field on Shea with this wind direction is the development of a strong jet stream from left to right and visa vera depending on wind direction.  Based on my calculations, these winds will have several minor impacts attributed to the stadium.  Pop ups over the outfield and in field will be influenced by a weak circulation that will generally circulation along the outline of Shea stadium.  In other words, while the jet stream described in the previous section will enhance the speed vector, this circulation will influence the directional vector.  So, if a fly ball is hit to right field with a southerly wind, the ball would be influenced to drift towards center.  Also, a potential home run ball with a southerly wind, with a direction towards right field might instead end up being blown foul.  These influences will have to be examined on a day to day basis.  

Conclusion

Based on the calculations I have produced, for the first time in Shea stadium history, this ball park will become a hitter’s park on days with the wind above 10 mph.  There will be limited negative impact to the trajectory of a baseball in the air with Citi Field situated currently.  

If you think it is wet outside in New York, just check out the Southeast! A cold front is slowly going to move through Atlanta over the next 48 hours, which means showers and thunderstorms will be moving through the area for tonight’s game and tomorrow afternoon.

There is a very good chance for a rain delay if not a rain out for both tonight and tomorrow afternoon. The main threat looks to be severe weather as locations to the northwest of Georgia have seen isolated tornadoes, small hail, frequent lightning, damaging winds, and very heavy rainfall that has caused some flash flooding. Therefore, there is a very good chance we all may be watching Mets Classics on SNY rather than the Mets and Braves at some point this weekend.

Through the blogosphere, Mets fans have been clamoring about being afraid of the Braves.  Personally, I don’t get this fear at all.  I would like to interject a little bit of reality to this irrational fear.  First and foremost, this is not 1995 or 2000 or even 2005.  

These Braves lack a bullpen.  Heck, they lack a closer!  These Braves lack a center fielder that seemed to catch anything hit in the air.  If you don’t think that’s important, ask anyone one of the pitchers over the past decade on this team.  This is a Braves team that so far this year has yet to hold a lead in a close game due to a bullpen with a 5.40 ERA and a 0-3 record.  The closer of this team can basically be described by a dart board.  Who should come into the 9th Bobby Cox?  I don’t think he knows either and I don’t blame him.  The plight of the bullpen can best be described by what I saw last night in the Braves extra inning loss where Bobby Cox had to put a pitcher in the outfield to allow him to pitch again later in the inning.  They ended up losing anyway.  

This is a Braves team that has already lost Mike Hampton to injury before even entering a game.  Not exactly a surprise.  This is a Braves team relying on a declining Tom Glavine and an already injured 43 year old John Smoltz.  I can promise you that if these two were on the Mets, the media would be claiming that both of these pitchers would never make it through the season.  However, because they are Atlanta, clearly the Braves can win the East according to some at ESPN.  The only pitcher who I feel is a challenge for the Mets is Tim Hudson, who goes tonight.  However, unless Hudson goes 9 inning tonight, the Mets have a great shot of taking out the Braves with that bullpen.  All John Maine has to do is keep the Mets in the game, which he is more than capable to do.

The Braves due have an explosive and impressive offense, however this offense lacks a true lead off hitter in my opinion.  They have power and will have the capability to mount a rally, but they aren’t at the level of the Mets nor the Phillies.  Once again, the lack of Andruw Jones in the middle of that line up will be noticed.  

All in all, from almost every aspect, the Mets are a better team by far.  The Mets have the best pitcher in baseball and two very impressive young pitchers that are coming into their own in Maine and Perez.  The Braves do not.  The Mets have a very strong bullpen, which (and I know it is only one series) is the best in the National League.  Oh yeah, and the Mets have a closer.  

This fear of the Braves is irrational and stems from the trauma that we all experienced in the 90’s and early 2000’s.  We will see this weekend that the Braves are pretenders and the real competition is not any team in the National League East, but the Mets themselves.  It was the Mets that defeated the Mets last year with bad play and unfocused players.  Nothing more than that.  Meanwhile, the Braves are nothing more than a .500 team when all is said and done.

Last night I felt like I was watching 2006 all over again. Once again, Pedro Martinez was pitching against the Marlins and once again he gets hurt in such an unexpected way. In 2006, the injuries began with him literally slipping on the floor in the club house while changing his shirt. The umpire said the long sleeve shirt was distracting the hitters. This year, looks like the hamstring got Pedro this time. I’m not going to bother to figure out what type of injury this is. Hearing a pop tells me that at the very least Pedro is down for 15 days, which is roughly 2 to 3 starts depending on the days off. The only good news I can dig up is that at least this happened in April, in the second game, rather than in September, so Pedro has plenty of time to get back and help the Mets. However, as much as a high we all had yesterday, last night was a real kick in the groin.

Matt Wise can be a really great addition to this bullpen, however as of right not he is the least impressive of the bullpen pitchers out there.

Can I see Joe Smith more please?

Oliver Perez starts his season tonight! I have high hopes for Perez and look forward to him having a solid season. The question for Perez has always been control. Hopefully his style will work perfectly with the free swinging Marlins and the Mets come away with a win.

The key to the season isn’t long winning streaks, however that certainly helps. Winning series is what matters! So this season I will track the Mets record in the convention of series wins. Should the Mets win each of their series this month, they will be in first place by at least 3 games.

Yesterday to mark opening day, I decided to jump on a bus and ride into Manhattan for Metsblog opening day party at Butterfield 8.  I can report that the experience was great!  The food was outstanding.  I would highly recommend the wings which are big and spicy.  Make sure you have a full glass of water or adult beverage on hand when you try these wings.  The hot dogs were a nice touch too!  The bar, though small, had their big screen HD TV’s positioned perfectly so no matter where you were sitting or standing, you can see the game.  I would strongly suggest that if you want to go to the next Metsblog event at Butterfield 8, that you get there an hour to an hour and a half ahead of the game.  The seats fill up quick and room, as would be expected with 100 plus Mets fans, is limited. 

As for the game, what can I say?  Johan Santana was everything  that we all were expecting.  What caught my attention was the offense, specifically the bottom of the line up that showed Pagan and Church showed some pop.  Alou who?  If these two hit around .270 to .280, then this line up is going to be very solid.  One thing that left me scratching my head was the 8th inning.  I like Willie Randolph.  I really do.  However, I don’t get why he is using Sosa for one out in the 8th inning.  I know everything worked out fine, but he’s supposed to be the long man in the pen.  Now, God forbid, the Marlins had tied the game, who would pitch in extra innings?  I would have gone with and was expecting Smith to pitch in that spot, not Sosa.  However, I applaud Randolph for not using Wagner in this situation.  One of the issues we saw in the second half was Wagner getting tired and less effective in August and September.  He should not pitch in these games and I have no problem with him sitting out with a lead of 4 runs or more.  Save him for when it matters.  

I also spent the day watching the Phillies and Braves.  You know, the teams that experts say are better than the Mets.  Now, look, I am not saying anyone can make an objective opinion on a team for a whole season based on one or two games.  However, can anyone on either team get an out from their bullpen without giving up a run or 6?  This isn’t a case of a bad game. Who exactly is the Braves closer?  Who is the guy that slams the door shut in the 9th?  I can’t find a closer, can anyone else?  How about the Phillies?  Is Flash Gordon a closer?  He sure didn’t look like it.  Actually he hasn’t looked like a closer in a long time.  Can Brandon Lidge be the answer?  Maybe.  If he’s healthy and can keep the ball in the park, both of which is not a given.  So the two chief rivals for the Mets have a serious flaw in that neither team has a trustworthy closer let alone bullpen.  By the time the Braves play the Mets this weekend, they will have used every pitcher in their bullpen.  In fact, last night the Braves used all their pitchers in their bullpen after Glavine gave a less than inspiring 5 innings.  They were beaten by an old friend who is on fire, the X-man, Nady! 

By the way, Lasting Milledge sure looked good yesterday.  I still believe that trade will bite the Mets in the butt down the road, however I don’t think he would have thrived in New York.  The media would have torn him apart every time he showed some excitement or immaturity.  He’ll grow out of that in Washington over time and will be a big bat for that team this year.    

Finally, I don’t know about you, but the best non-signing Omar Minaya has had would be Barry Zito.  Man, talk about a developing bust of a contract!  For 126 million over 7 years, the Giants have gotten a rather large disappointment.  In his first year, Zito was 11-13 with a 4.13 ERA.  His contract was ace status, those numbers clearly are not.  Then yesterday, the great Barry Zito pitched a great game!  He went 5 innings pitched, gave up 4 earned runs, and had a 1.80 WHIP.  I’m sure Chris Russo is LOVING Barry Zito this morning!

It’s been a while since I wrote about the Mets. The crash from last year was like a heart attack to my Mets soul. It was extremely painful and I felt I needed to step away from baseball for a while to get back into baseball. I won’t get into what’s already done in the off season, but lets look at the Mets pitching coming into this season!

Unlike last year, the Mets strengths clearly lie in the pitching. Pitching wins, period. You can give me a whole line up of all start home run hitting giants, and I’ll still take a team with light offense and great pitching. If you don’t believe me, just ask the Texas Rangers the past decade. The Mets happen to have the best pitcher in baseball, a young ace, an old ace, a wild card, and the question mark in the starting rotation.

Best Pitcher:

Sometime you don’t get what you want, but what you need. In this case, the Mets got both in Johan Santana. Lets be completely clear about this. He IS the best pitcher in baseball. I can write here about all his statistics. I can tell you about his dominating K/BB ratio. I can write how he dominated a tougher (let’s be honest) American League. I can tell you all of this, and all that information will not add up to what Santana means to the Mets and this rotation. For all us young Mets fans who where not around in the 60’s and 70’s, HE can be our Tom Seaver. He is a type of pitcher that every 5 days you can count on a win 85% of the time. Further more, there is no one in the National League East like him. Not on the Braves (maybe Smoltz 5 to 7 years ago) and certainly not anyone like that on the Phillies. He’s a difference maker and anyone that doesn’t think so is kidding themselves. This year I expect a record of 20-6, 2.25 ERA, and a Cy Young when all is said and done.

YOUNG ACE:

Back in 2006 season I stated that John Maine will be a future ace of the New York Mets. I loved this guys fast ball and if he just trusted his change up and curve, he’d be dominant. Not only did I like his stuff, but I liked how he rose to the occasion when needed. The best case of this was in the first game of the NLDS where John Maine was thrown into the game on short notice. He stepped up big time and did so again in game 6 of the NLCS. He took the next step in 2007 where not only did he win 15 games, produced a WHIP of 1.27, and had a 2.40 K/BB ratio; but also nearly pitched a no-hitter in the second to last game of the year where everything was on the line. As we all remember, a certain old pitcher couldn’t do the same the next day. This year I think we see John Maine take the step to the next level. The level of an ace pitcher. A pitcher who you can count on to put the Mets in a position to win. A pitcher that trusts his stuff and isn’t afraid to face down a hitter in a tough situation. I expect the following: 18-9, 3.00 ERA, and an increase in his K/BB ratio to 2.50 and a decrease of WHIP to 1.10.

OLD ACE:

One of the biggest missing pieces for the New York Mets last year and in the 2006 play off run was, at the time, the Mets best pitcher; Pedro Martinez. After a long fight back from injuries, he is back and looks to be back to his winning ways. Now, I don’t think anyone can expect the Pedro from the late 90’s. However, the Pedro Martinez from 2005 is very reasonable. He gave the Mets a 15-8 record, 2.80 ERA, and a 0.95 WHIP. That’s what a healthy Pedro Martinez can do and that’s exactly what Pedro is, healthy. Although I think the WHIP maybe higher, I still expect similar statistics to what we saw in 2005. One of the benefits of adding Santana to the rotation is that Pedro will face the number 2 starter rather than another team’s ace and will have less pressure on him to be dominant. However, knowing Pedro’s pride, you can bet he’ll push himself to keep pace with Santana. That alone should be an interesting combination.

WILD CARD:

Trying to figure out Oliver Perez can be as difficult as hitting his fastball and cutter. This spring was basically a short description of his career to this point. He’s had some horrible years with the Pirates and Padres. He’s had two great seasons, one of which was last year. There are times when Perez gets into a groove and can pitch a dominate game. Then the next game walks 8 and can’t get out of the 2nd. However, last year Oliver did take some major steps in the right direction. He used his defense more to get outs and learned how to control his arm angle to have a nice string of solid games. He was good enough to win 15 games and tended to rise to the occasion of big games. However, of the top four pitchers I rate Oliver Perez as the least reliable, although his ceiling is very high. I think a record of 14-10 is reasonable with a 3.86 ERA. Perez will benefit from being 4th in the rotation, which might save him some loses. However I can make a case for Perez to win only 10 games if he’s wild, and winning 20 games if he harnesses his electric abilities. His ability may make the question of the 5th starter mute. After all, if the Mets get 70 plus wins from the top four starts, the need for the 5th starter to produce is rather mute.

THE QUESTION MARK:

I have to say I have a bias against Orlando Hernandez here. I respect the guy, but how long can anyone actually expect this guy to stay healthy in the rotation. How many injuries has this guy had since joining the Mets? How many times has Hernandez caused trouble for not only the rotation, but the entire pitching staff due to his injuries? The question isn’t if, but when the next “injury” will pop up that will put the Mets in a bad situation for the rotation. Right now, after trying and failing to alter his pitching stance, Hernandez will deal with putting pressure on a bad bunion. When healthy Hernandez has the ability to go 6 to 9 innings of solid pitching and put the Mets in a winning position. I’m going on record as saying by some point in the 3rd week of May, Hernandez will have trouble with that bunion. Bunions don’t go away, and that high leg kick will only put more stress on it. As such, you can count on Mike Pelfrey to make some starts for the Mets.

Pelfrey has the potential to be a top of the rotation pitcher. However, like all young pitchers, he must learn his craft. Pelfrey is entering only his third professional year in baseball. That includes minor and major league experience. Now, I know that New York fans expect a pitcher to come to the big leagues and dominant, but more than not it just does not happen that way. Pelfrey needs to take his lumps and learn how to pitch on the major league level. That’s not going to happen at double or triple A. I rather know that I have Pelfrey going every 5th day for 6 innings pitch than not knowing if a starting pitcher will even make it to the ball park intact. So the sooner Pelfrey gets to the Mets, the better.

The Bull Pen:

The Mets strong rotation puts the bull pen in a great position. The Mets bullpen looks to include Pedro Filiciano, Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoeneweis, Joe Smith, Jorge Sosa, Brian Stokes, and Matt Wise. Right now, looks like Jorge Sosa will be the long man in the bullpen, which is fine as Sosa can be serviceable for 3 to 4 innings when needed. What will be interesting is the battle that will unfold in April between Joe Smith, Brian Stokes, and Matt Wise as who gets sent down or traded when Duaner Sanchez comes back back the end of the month. Out of the three, the most intriguing pitcher to me is Matt Wise who was a major set up man for the Brewers before having some trouble in the middle of last year after hitting a batter. Wise for the Brewers was what Heilman is for the Mets now, that bridge in the 8th to the closer. Should Wise step up, then the Mets have the potential for a devistating bullpen. Imagine if you will a game where Willie Randolph can go with Feliciano or Smith for a lefty, then go to Schoeneweis for a righty in the 6th, followed by Wise or Sanchez in the 7th, then Sanchez or Heilman in the 8th, and finally shutting the game down in the 9th with Wagner whom by the way has has a great spring training. That bullpen is very similar to 2006 and gives Willie Randolph the options he never had last year. The return of Sanchez and the addition of Wise puts Feliciano, Schoeneweis, and Smith in specific roles that will put them in the best position to succeed. For the most part, that is what we have seen all spring.

As we all know, pitching wins. The 2008 Mets have plenty of pitching and the ability to end a game quickly by the 5th inning if need be. With a rotation of Santana, Martinez, Maine, and Perez; the Mets may have the best rotation going 1 through 4 and would make a short series very difficult to win. You can bet that opponent hitters will shake their heads seeing a rotation of Santana, Martinez, and Maine in a 3 game series. The weakest link is the 5th starter, but of course what team doesn’t have questions with a 5th starter. In closing, it is my opinion that the Mets will not need a high powered offense to win like the team in 2006, but rather will only need 2 to 4 runs per game to win a majority of the games this season. This is going to be a fun final season at Shea!

     Well your favorite weatherman is done with feeling like a heavy fog is hanging over his head.   What is done is done.  There’s nothing more that can be done or said, so where do the Mets go from here?   Here is what I’m hoping for in this off season.

     I want Santana!  I mean the pitcher, although I do like the artist as well.   Anyway, I think Johan Santana is exactly what this starting pitching staff needs.   As much as I like Pelfrey, Humber, Milledge, and Gomez; Johan Santana is the ace pitcher who I would trade good younger players for.   Santana has plenty of ace seasons left and can help lead to way with Pedro Martinez, John Maine, and Oliver Perez.   I’m not going to make a trade proposal here, because every time the media makes one up, the reality of the trade is rarely ever close.  Trade and sign this guy, and get a YOUNG ace at Shea.  The price is high but well worth it.  So if this goes down by sometime around the end of December, the Mets will have a rotation of Santana, Martinez, Maine, Perez, and then a fifth starter from either the farm or someone signed cheap.   I think this is a staff that is solid and is limited in injury problems.

       Second, this bullpen needs to be completely rebuilt.  Everyone can agree on kicking Mota out.   Shoeneweis though is a tougher case for me.  We all know that Shoeneweis had testicular cancer, and that he likely had to take a steroid to recover from this Cancer.  I checked on WebMD and actually asked some people who have cancer.   They all tell me they had to take one type of steroid or another.   So I need to read more about what Shoeneweis was taking before wanting him out as well.  Perhaps I’m being blind here, but before we crush this guy I personally need to know this information before I boo him. 

       I want Wagner here as the closer.   Say what you will about Wagner, but he’s a stand up guy.  Further, I challenge someone to find a perfect closer.  I got news for everyone out there, there isn’t one.  Even Mr. Rivera is no where near what he was, which is to be expected.  Wagner is one of the best out there.  However, it is clear that the Mets need to fix this bullpen for the 6th to 8th innings.   I’d like to keep Heilman, but I’m thinking he’ll be involved in a trade, perhaps for Santana or another piece.  I would love the Mets to go after Francisco Cordero for the 8th inning.  Yes, he’s a closer but he is young and Wagner will not be here past the end of his contract.   Cordero can then step in thereafter.  Next, I would like to see Omar go after Scott Linebrink.   These two pitchers would significanly upgrade the bullpen.   The rest of the bullpen I’d like to see is Joe Smith, who I think will improve on his rookie and first ever professional baseball season.  Also, Feliciano who can return to his lefty set up man role.   Beyond that, I’ll sit back and see what Omar can come up with.  Long men in the bullpen are rather unpredictable, so we’ll see what works out there.  Otherwise I’m interested in what Collazo can bring to this team as well. 

      As much as Alou produced for the short time he was here, I’m done with 40 year old players.  As such, no more players over the age of 38 please.  I’m done with Orlando Hernandez, Moise Alou, and others.   This is an ATHLETIC game and as such we can’t have players who are out for 2 weeks or a month because of a bad neck or simply walking up the stairs. 

       I’d like to see a young outfielder, either Milledge or Gomez, to the left or right of Beltran.  

      Further, any body who mentions trading Reyes should be examined for insanity or perhaps Mad Cow.  

       I want LoDuca back as catcher.   The market for catchers is paper thin.  As such, for this team, I think LoDuca is perfect for this team.   He’s firey and vocal.   He’s a leader and honest.  Frankly, the Mets need LoDuca more than LoDuca needs the Mets.   That’s the truth.

       I would like to see Rickey Henderson gone.   Perhaps that emotional reaction, but I can’t get over the fact that his arrival marked a significant decline in Jose Reyes‘ production at the plate and field.   Reyes is a young man, who has to own up to his own failures, but putting an influence like this around him doesn’t help.   Take your cards and go home! 

      As for the rest of the post season, I’m pulling for the Red Soxes and Chicago Cubs for the simple reason that if there are any fans that understand how we feel right now, it is the fan base of these two teams.  Besides, they don’t have any mutated mascots that represent pure evil. 

     I figure I share some of my thoughts as a fellow Mets fan and to do some group “therapy”.   At first I didn’t know how to start.  What do you say?   What do you do?  After a season that started so well, continued on so well, and then crashed into a crumbling heap of ashes.  I mean, what do you say?  Well, here are some of my thoughts.

   1.  Good bye Tom Glavine!   It’s not devistating Tom?  No?!  Well, it is true that someone dying in the family is worse, but hey can you show a little bit of accountablity?  Hello?  Are you a professional or not?  Perhaps you are used to it with all your blown chances with the Braves, but we expect more Tom.  Good bye Tom Glavine.  

2.  Jose, Jose, Jose, Jose.   Where is Jose?  I have no idea what happened to Jose Reyes in the second half.  This was beyond a slump here.   Slumps happen to everybody, and I wouldn’t kill him if it was simply that.   However, not running out base hits?  Not concentrating in the field?   Not even attempting to steal the last two weeks of the season?  I don’t know what happened to Jose Reyes, but someone better find out fast before the next spring training. 

3.   Perhaps this should be connected to Reyes question.  However, I want Rickey Henderson GONE!   I am suspicious that there is a direct link between Henderson and Reyes.  He got put on this team and then we saw a different Jose Reyes.  Let him play cards at Vegas, not in the club house. 

4.  Time to blow up the pitching staff.   I only want a few guys to return next year.   I think Perez and Maine did their jobs this year.  I was looking for 13 to 15 wins this year from them, and they gave that.   So for the rotation I have Pedro, Perez, and Maine, then two question marks.   Perhaps someone from Minnesota.  The bullpen, I’m willing to change EVERYBODY, including Mr “I want to be a starting pitcher” Heilman.

5.   David Wright and Carlos Beltran did their jobs. 

6.  No more players over the age of 40!  I had enough of Orlando Hernandez and Alou.  Even though Green isn’t over 40, I want him gone too!   I can deal with losing with young players, but not this nonsense.  

7.  Get off Lasting Milledge’s back!   Lets see, Milledge is getting heat on WFAN right now.  What did he do?   Oh, only played his butt off.   He actually produced when it mattered with multiple homeruns on Saturday and strong defensive play.   Somehow Milledge gets all this heat for showing some excitement, but not a word about anyone else who did the same or worse.  

8.   I want Milledge, Beltran, and Gomez for my outfield next year.   It probably won’t happen, but it would be nice.

9.  Willie Randolph shouldn’t be fired, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he was.

        I’ll take some time off from Mets baseball.   I need to step away.  

      This time yesterday morning we were all feeling like a friend had died.   That friend is alive and mad as hell!   The Mets yesterday finally woke up.   They came alive and crushed the Marlins like they should.   Meanwhile, the Phillies couldn’t handle first place for 24 hours and lost to the Nationals.  

       The Mets hold their future in their hands again.  When the Mets win today, no matter what happens, they’ll have games to play in October.   I honestly believe the Phillies will lose today.  You can see in their play yesterday that it is the Phillies who are tight and the Mets who finally broke lose. 

       This is war.  It is now or never.  No more pointing fingers or complaining.  Perhaps Marlin’s catcher was doing the Mets a favor by slapping some sense into Jose Reyes.  I certainly hope so, but the truth is that Reyes is what makes this offense go for the most part.   The Mets need him to step up today.   Also, Glavine has to have a solid game.  No more excuses.   300 games or no, this game might be the biggest game in his Mets career, because unlike any other game, the Mets can not afford a lose here.   Glavine has to come up big and at least give 6 innings pitched.  I know he can.   I know he will! 

      So get out to Shea.   Put on the war paint.   Show the world how to really chear for a team.  I still can’t believe that Philadelphia fans are so unoriginal that they have to steal rally towels from the Cardinals and the freaking Pittsburg Stealers.   As usual, Philadelphia fans will be chanting Eagles (who will lose tonight) by the 7th inning.

GO METS!

    I feel like someone just died last night.   All season, this team was in first, but this morning no more.  It comes down to this, the Phillies brought it, the Mets did not.  Simple as that. 

     For the most part, I’m disappointed in so many players and things.   Who to blame?  Well, there are several places to look, so pardon my theropy but here I go. 

1.  The difference from last year to this year is the bullpen.  Period.   Last year, the Mets had periods of offensive drought.   They had periods of so-so or even bad starting pitching.  However, the bullpen was always solid.  To me, the biggest lose in the bullpen was not Heath Bell.  Has he done well this year?  Sure!  However, sometimes a pitcher just does better at a different place.   No, the difference is one man to me.  Mr. Bradford.   Bradford you say?  Yes, Bradford.   Remember, even if a pitcher went 5 innings, Bradford would come in for the 6th or 7th innings with Feliciano for an occasional lefty.  Then came Heilman and/or Sanchez for the 7th and 8th inning, then came Wagner.   That was a solid bullpen.   The game basically ended in the 6th inning last year.   That’s how the Mets won.  That’s how they had a 10+game lead all last season.  This year?  Well, lets look at this year.

2.  Is Willie to blame?   Well, lets look at this for a moment.  Willie Randolph can only use the players he is given.  Like I said, who did he have to replace Bradford’s innings?   There was Joe Smith at first.  He started out great, but he was in his first season of professional baseball let alone being a rookie.  How was Smith going to handle all the innings he’d have to pitch?  Innings he had never thrown in his life?  Next, there was Shoenewies who simply did not perform until about the last 7 days.  So next, we have Sosa who was okay at first, but faulter as well.   Don’t get me started on Mota.  The point here is that Willie had no one to replace Chad Bradford.   As a result, Feliciano got used way too much, the roles in the bullpen disappeared, and thus other teams had the opportunity to get back into games.   This was not Willie Randolph’s fault.   Further, those that wanted Willie Randolph to stop defending his players, clearly never played the game.  You don’t go to a press conference after the game and say, yeah my bullpen sucks this year.   That’s why you, the fan, has sports radio. 

3.   Omar better have learned his leasson:  I am not going on a rant about Heath Bell or Lindstrom because frankly I didn’t have a problem with these trades either.  I saw Heath Bell all last year and he was always so-so with the Mets.  He’s done great with the Padres and that sometimes happens with a player, and Lindstrom I just didn’t think was that great.   Should Omar have tried to get more with these players?   Obviously now they are worth more than back in February.  If you told me Bell would have been this good this year, I don’t think I’d believe you.   No, the mistake Omar made was losing Bradford to the O’s because of a three year contract demand and then sign Shoenewies for, get ready, a three year contract!   That troubled me from the start, but trust in Omar right?  Well, Omar is going to have to do a lot this winter to regain my trust.

4.  Who should be fired?   Firing managers is a knee jerk reaction to me.  My reasoning above gives Willie Randolph a pass.  However he does deserve a lot of heat.  It is my firm believe though that managers get too much credit for winning and too much blame for losing.   If someone should be fired, I point at the players.   The following players should be “fired” or not resigned:  Sosa, Mota, Aaron Sele, Orlando Hernandez, Tom Glavine, Alou, and Ricky Henderson.   That’s at least a start.   However, it is clear the bullpen and rotation needs to be rebuilt. 

         I’ll write more about this later as right now I’m just too angry and confused to put my thoughts together on where to go from here.   I think I’ll go hit the heavy bag.  That might make me feel better.  

        I’m going to make this short and to the point.   This is do or die.  There is no other way to put it.  The Mets can not lose any more games here.  Period.   This is a new season and a new start.   The playoff begin tonight and every game is a must win.  3 wins.   That’s what separates this team from the playoffs or an off season full of disbelief and rage.  Now is not the time to figure out what happened here.   I’m not sure if any of us can ever point to one or three reasons why this complete collaspe has happened.   Win or go home.  Plain and simple.