I don’t even understand the bullpen anymore. It’s just so depressing. Who knows who will be good one night and bad the next?

But I have to question the idea of installing Luis Ayala as the closer just because he was good once and might be again. It seems like Ayala should have to work to that, even if the bullpen is in complete shambles.

I wouldn’t be surprised if, after the September callups, guys like Ricardo Rincon or Al Reyes are immediately promoted to prominent roles in the bullpen just because the entire bullpen has been so inconsistent this season.

But that haphazard thinking has to just mess with the minds of the guys who have been in the bullpen all season. And I really don’t want Ayala to be the Mets closer.

In summary, please come back Billy Wagner.

There’s been a lot of discussion recently here on who is the MVP of the Mets. It’s probably a good thing that we are having a hard time deciding between many candidates. The names of David Wright, Jose Reyes, Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Carlos Delgado, and Carlos Beltran have all been bandied about, and one can make legitimate cases for each of them.

Admittedly, without thinking about it, I’m inclined to recognize Wright as the Mets MVP, at least through August. I think part of the reason why people might overlook Wright is because he will not have the unique 30-30 season that he did in 2007. However, many of his 2008 numbers are higher than his 2007 numbers. He looks to hit one or two more homers than 2007 (currently has 26, had 30 in 2007.) He most certainly will have more RBIs (102 so far in 2008, 107 in 2007). He also looks to have more doubles and more walks.

Another reason why people might overlook Wright is because he is hitting .292 when he has finished with above .300 in each of his last three seasons. But if he has another electric September, he will finish above .300 again, while his OBP and SLG will also climb a little bit.

The stolen base argument could also be said for Reyes. He probably won’t win the NL steals crown, but he’s having a better season than his 2007 when he stole a ridiculous 78 bases. He has basically already matched his 2007 power numbers, which were down from his 2006. He leads the NL in hits. Unless he slumps, he’ll post his highest OBP of his career, which is pretty nice from the leadoff man. Still, I’d give Wright the nod over Reyes.

As for Beltran and Delgado, I’m admittedly biased against them because they have not been as steady as Reyes and certainly Wright. Delgado looks to easily lead the Mets in power numbers, sure, but I just can’t put him over Wright because Wright has not only been more steady but also has impressive statistics in a number of categories. Delgado had to work to get back to the league average for batting average. He has more strikeouts, less walks, less doubles, and less hits than Wright. Don’t get me wrong — Delgado’s power streak has been marvelous, but I wouldn’t put him over Wright or Reyes.

And Beltran, even moreso. While Beltran has been probably the best defensive player on the Mets this year, again, his power numbers have also went down, again. This is nothing Mets fans don’t already know, but not being MVP of a team does not mean you aren’t a good player. Beltran’s a good player, and he’s been clutch at times, just like Delgado. But on a team with Wright and Reyes, I’d look to them first. Though, even with a batting average like 30 points lower, Beltran still has a slightly higher OBP than Reyes, in a career year for Reyes.

I think Santana and Pelfrey get less discussion in this debate because they are starters, but these guys have been absolute rocks for the starting rotation this season. Typically, Santana has had an electric second half to lower his ERA well below 3. Pelfrey has come on ever since his emergence.

All in all, I guess if I had to choose — Wright.

Mets catcher Brian Schneider has hit four home runs in his last six games, raising his season HR total to five. Where did this come from?

All five of his HRs this year have come against right-handed pitchers, so maybe there is something to this platoon thing. Of course, he’s played most of the season in a lefty-righty platoon, which presents a chicken-egg scenario.

From 2005-2007, he had 19 HRs against right-handed pitching with just 1 HR against left-handed pitching, while collecting over four times the number of ABs against right-handed pitching as against left-handed.

Ramon Castro has 3 HR against righties and 4 HR against lefties, while collecting roughly the same number of ABs against both this season.

As with any pitcher completing his first full season, much has been made about Mike Pelfrey as he approaches 200 innings pitched this season. As is usually the case, coddling pitchers is overrated, especially in the heat of a playoff race.

It was mentioned during tonight’s SNY broadcast that the Mets were looking to give Pelfrey extra rest between each start during the month of September. They’d use Brian Stokes for spot starts when necessary. Now let’s not get into the debate on whether it should be Stokes or Jon Neise while forgetting one key point: this is a bad decision.

First of all, until Pelfrey shows me evidence that he’s tired (as John Maine has), I’d have no interest in providing him with extra rest during a playoff race. Ron Darling asked during the broadcast if he had fallen asleep and awoke with the Mets having a 10-game lead. That is not the case, and he’s absolutely right.

Secondly, as Darling commented, he’s a major reason why the Mets are where they are today. I use the same argument that I did against moving a starter to a reliever: why mess with a strength? I think, as Darling suggested, that the Mets are taking their good starting pitching for granted, thinking it will always be there, even if they subtract from it. That won’t necessarily be the case.

And if the Mets were looking to give Pelfrey rest, why didn’t they think of this during the Mets’ current prolonged stretch without an off-day?  This is backwards thinking. The Mets have a few off-days left in the season, and the Mets still want to give Pelfrey extra rest. But Pelfrey pitches regularly in the rotation during this long stretch? Huh?

And now let’s touch on that earlier point: Stokes would not be the guy to plug into the sixth position. The idea would be to wait until September 1, as the team is probably doing with the Luis Castillo promotion, and give Neise a shot. And even then, I would feel really, really uncomfortable with putting Neise immediately in this tough position.

This whole idea is problematic, and hopefully, the team rethinks its stance.

Since 2006, the Mets-Braves rivalry has become somewhat rekindled, though it has taken a major backseat to the Mets-Phillies rivalry in that same span. The rivalry has suffered from the Atlanta Braves’ lack of contention in the second halves of the past three years, as well. As a result, the splits in the series have developed a bit of a trend:

2006: Mets 11-7 against Braves (5-4 first half, 6-3 second half)
2007: Mets 9-9 against Braves (3-6 first half, 6-3 second half)
2008 (thus far): Mets 4-7 against Braves (2-7 first half, 2-0 second half with 7 more games to play)

2006 is pretty split, which makes sense because the Mets had the NL East in control early on. 2007, though, was the year the Mets just kept losing 2 out of 3 to the Braves (they did in their first four series with them.) They finally evened out the score with the last two series, when the Braves fell peaceably out of the race.

This year isn’t really that consistent failure against the Braves in 2007, as much as it is that disasterous 4-game sweep in May (of which I attended two games in a doubleheader.) That sweep has really skewed the Mets’ first half record against Atlanta, putting it at the same as their first half record against Atlanta in their horrid 2005 match-ups.

But the Braves have once again fell out of contention in 2008, and this series has been in the Mets’ control, not to jinx tomorrow’s game. The Braves have not been good in the role of the spoiler against the Mets the past few seasons, which hopefully continues.

So much ink and so many words have been devoted to the Mets’ bullpen woes, specifically the (potentially long-term) absence of Billy Wagner. So why not some more words?

On Tuesday’s Mets-Braves telecast, Peachtree TV showed a graphic with the Mets’ bullpen ERAs by month. The team’s bullpen ERA for August was 6.65, a full two runs higher than the monthly average. Of course, Wagner has missed almost all of August. In April, back when Wagner was not only healthy but flawless, the Mets’ bullpen ERA was under 4, the season-low.

I know it’s a flawed stat, but let’s take a look at blown saves for each Mets reliever, since the pessimistic Mets fan in us is more concerned with not blowing saves than with maintaining leads. We’ll also look at losses to be fair because relievers are as to blame when they come into tie games.

Heilman - 7 losses, 3 BS
Sanchez - 1 loss, 0 BS
Schoeneweis - 2 losses, 3 BS
Feliciano - 3 losses, 2 BS
Smith - 3 losses, 3 BS
Ayala - 8 losses, 4 BS
Stokes - 0 losses, 1 BS

After looking at these extremely unscientific numbers, I’m inclined to say Heilman has probably gotten, by far, the most opportunities to close games, and he’s not really done well in those situations. Obviously, anybody could make that observation. Unless Ayala becomes stellar in a Mets uniform, I would think any thoughts of him becoming an end-of-game reliever soon are silly. And I kind of think people have overrated Stokes’ early contributions as a reliever, causing Jerry Manuel to put him in a role he shouldn’t have been in and subsequently helping to blow the game. (Let’s face it, that Mets-Pirates game came right after a Johan Santana shutout. And hey, Maine at least went five. Why was Manuel pushing for two innings out of Stokes there?)

Is there a clear-cut solution? Definitely not. Some are inclined to say John Maine, and I agree with SNY’s Ted Berg. If you absolutely had to pick a starter, Maine is probably the guy for the reasons Berg mentions in his latest column. But I’m not convinced that it’s that dire time yet. After all, I perceive the Mets rotation right now as a major strength, so why mess with a good thing there? Has Pedro Martinez put together enough solid outings to start counting on him as a strength in the rotation? Not quite there yet.

I also feel uncomfortable with struggling to watch the last few innings of every Mets game with their disasterous closer-by-committee. Billy, come home soon.

Billy Wagner went on the disabled list, retroactive to August 3, and since then, the Mets’ bullpen has had a well-documented, topsy-turvey ride. While he was never officially placed on the disabled list, Brad Lidge hasn’t seen action since August 8, thus causing the Phillies’ pen to spin a bit out of control.

The Phillies were fine for the first two Lidge-less games, with Chad Durbin and Ryan Madson picking up saves, but since then, the Dodgers swept them in a 4-game series full of close games. While the Phillies claim Lidge has been available to close since Monday, it’s odd that he didn’t see action in the entire series.

While the Phillies didn’t lead on Monday or Thursday, the team took a 3-2 lead into the eighth on Tuesday only for Durbin to blow the lead in the 8th and J.C. Romero to allow the winning run in the ninth. On Wednesday, the Phillies had a 6-4 lead in the eighth that the combined forces of Durbin, Romero, and Clay Condrey turned into a 7-6 Dodgers win.

With Lidge’s recent injury and Tom Gordon out for the season, chances are, the Phillies’ relievers are getting as overtaxed as the Mets’ hurlers are. With the Phillies having a more consistent bullpen overall this season, this hiccup is welcome to further the Mets’ playoff chances.

For a last little bit of irony, it seems that Lidge has become a victim of the extra-inning All-Star Game. MLB.com shows that Lidge and Phillies manager Charlie Manuel are blaming the countless warm-ups Lidge had to toss at the All-Star Game for at least further-injuring him. Will there soon be a time when World Series managers turn down the “privilege” of managing the All-Star Game to avoid the headaches?

A quote from reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins is making the rounds today, whether it be on ESPN SportsCenter or thousands of blogs on the internet. MLB.com provides the quote that has some Phillies fans angrily dialing the local radio station:

“It can be, yeah,” Rollins said. “There are times, like, it’s one of those cities … I might catch some flack for saying this, but, you know, they’re front-runners. When you’re doing good, they’re on your side. When you’re doing bad, they’re completely against you.”

This is such a hilarious quote because, let’s face it, Rollins shouldn’t have been the NL MVP last year. It should have been Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, or maybe even David Wright. The reason why he won was because of his backstory of saying the Phillies were the “team to beat” and then backing it up. Ironically, this story ended up taking a backseat to the Rockies’ cinderella story very quickly into the postseason.

Regardless, it was the Phillies’ fans that perpetuated the 2007 legend of Rollins. They bought the Rollins “team to beat” t-shirts. They were the ones that defended his NL MVP win. They championed Rollins as team leader.

And now that Rollins is having an underwhelming season, look who goes under the bus.

Listen, all teams have frontrunners. Everybody knows that. So there’s no point in saying it. In fact, there’s more honor in blindly ignoring it, especially if you’re a team leader. I’ve never heard Wright say such a statement. In fact, when he’s endured boos, such as in April 2007 during his homer-less slump, he said he deserved the boos and constantly called the fans the best in the world.

It is for that reason that instead of empathizing with Rollins, as Mets fans rarely are wont to do, let’s engage in some more Rollins bashing where it is clearly due.

In a post to Mets Prospectus, the site mentioned SNY’s showing of the Mets’ run differential in a game on August 6. Ironically, that game was a microcosm of the Mets’ futile run scoring in late innings. The Mets were tied 2-2 with the Padres in the seventh. The Padres scored one run in the seventh and one run in the eighth to win 4-2.

Updating that run differential through August 12, the Mets stand at +88 for innings 1-3 and -51 for innings 7-9. This should be a hardly surprising statistic to those who follow the Mets regularly. Constantly falling asleep offensively in the later innings causes these precarious situations for the relievers, day in and day out. The starters feel like they have to be close to perfect to get a win, and the relievers feel like they have to be perfect, when constantly presented with only 1-run or 2-run leads.

By no means does this take the hook off the Mets relievers for not getting the job done in 2008, but it helps if they feel that even if they fail, the team can rally and pick them up. This mentality isn’t really with the current team.

Obviously, run differential can be a flawed statistic. Teams like the Phillies can have blow out games every so often and inflate their run differential. Still, on the whole, I think the innings breakdown holds true for the Mets, because the team has not really come through in key RISP situations late in games, especially when it comes to tacking on runs.

David Wright is doing well, batting .295 with 6 HR and 16 RBIs when it is “close and late” in games. Jose Reyes has a .323 average and .386 OBP then. However, Carlos Beltran bats just .213 with 2 HR and 9 RBIs when “close and late.” Carlos Delgado bats .195 with 1 HR and 11 RBIs in those situations. In a smaller sample size than the four above, Fernando Tatis has an other-worldedly .393 batting average with 3 HR and 12 RBIs. Another late-game hero, Damion Easley, has three home runs in 50 ABs “close and late.”

So, from looking at that statistic, it certainly seems like the culprits are Beltran and Delgado. It is telling when perceived role players like Easley and Tatis have slugged more than Beltran and Delgado, when the latter two are supposedly the heart of the lineup. For this team to succeed, it can’t always be the surprising players as the heroes late. Sometimes it has to be the guys the Mets paid to be the late-game heroes.

While it is true that there’s little more frustrating than a bullpen-blown loss to the likes of the Bay-less, Nady-less Pittsburgh Pirates, drastic action with this closer role seems dicey. The team has already weathered more than half of Billy Wagner’s DL stint, and there’s less than a week left. So I would feel uncomfortable with the team taking drastic action, such as moving one of the team’s starters to the closer’s role, even temporarily.

Marty Noble writes for MLB.com that this is a possibility. Jerry Manuel acknowledged that John Maine could be used in the role after his Wednesday start. If that’s the timetable, Maine would only be available as the closer for a few games (more or less, the weekend Pirates series) before Wagner would return. So what’s the point? Unless the Mets saw Maine in the bullpen as a long-term solution, messing with the comfort level of a starter who already has troubles in the 2nd half seems foolhardy.

And if the Mets did see Maine or Oliver Perez or any other starter as a long-term solution for the bullpen, that would obviously weaken the Mets’ starting rotation. Brian Stokes cannot become the No. 5 starter, if that’s what a possible scenario would be. Stokes was servicable in his spot start, but it should be kept at that. Frankly, why is he even still up here in a bullpen role? What has he done to distinguish himself from a number of pitchers who look better statistically at Triple-A New Orleans? Stokes was 10-8 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 22 starts at Triple-A. He gave up four earned runs on 7 hits in 5.2 innings against Florida on Saturday. Plus, he’s coming off a horrendous 2007, his only full season in the majors. He’s got to be sent down on Wednesday when Maine returns.

As dangerous as it might be, Eddie Kunz should be given the spot for the next week. Of course, the team could reassess in a few days if things get riotous, as they did with Aaron Heilman and the closer-by-committee. But it’s easier to ride out this rough patch until Wagner returns than to possibly throw Maine and the entire rotation out of whack for a few days of closing opportunities. Yes, all the games are vital, and the Mets need wins, but the team also needs to play for the next two months and not make reactionary decisions for the next two days.

Also, while it’s true that relief pitching is a whole different animal from starting pitching, Maine does possess a 7.24 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP during pitches 1-15 of a start. He has a 4.66 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through pitches 16-30. He traditionally settles down and does well from pitches 31-60 but struggles during the bookend innings of his starts. Perez’ numbers show the same trend with a much bigger disparity.

There are some titles in baseball that can be dubious. The “saves leader” usually is the man that collects the most (or near the most) save opportunities. It does not necessarily mean he is the best closer in the league. Likewise, the leader in outfield assists is not always the best outfielder because baserunners are more apt to run on the unproven. Steals leader could be grouped into this list.

A steals leader might be considered the best leadoff hitter in the league, when that isn’t necessarily true. Case in point: Willy Taveras of the Colorado Rockies is far and away the MLB steals leader and looks to easily capture the crown unless Jose Reyes or Jacoby Ellsbury turns up the pace down the stretch. Taveras sits at a surprising 51 steals in mid-August, while Reyes and Ellsbury share a distant 2nd of 38 steals each. It’s surprising because Taveras swiped 34 and 33 steals respectively in his first two full seasons in the league, 2005 and 2006 with the Astros. In an shortened 97-game season with the Rockies in 2007, he stole another 33. This season, he’s on pace for about 75.

But Taveras is hardly the ideal leadoff hitter, merely because of his wealth of steals. He’s batting .251 with 1 HR and 22 RBI with an abysmal OBP of .305. And yet Taveras has 352 of his 370 ABs this season in the leadoff slot for the Rockies. Historically, the young Taveras simply doesn’t walk enough. The only year he had an acceptable OBP was 2007 when his OBP of .367 was propped up by a batting average of .320.

Ellsbury, the man Reyes shares 2nd place with, has had a disappointing season, as well. He’s batting .269 with 7 HR and 33 RBIs with an OBP of .331. In 116 at-bats last season, Ellsbury had a .353 average and .394 OBP. Even so, Ellsbury has 342 of his 390 at-bats at the leadoff spot.

Juan Pierre, 4th in MLB with 37 steals, could have a few more if the Dodgers outfield wasn’t so clogged. Pierre is batting .277 with 0 HR and 25 RBI with an OBP of .322. Historically, Pierre is a guy who has a pretty good average (around the .290s) but has a subpar OBP. So, again, he’s not an ideal leadoff hitter, either. A guy like B.J. Upton, tied for fifth with 36 steals, overcomes his bad average (.265) by having a career year in walks (80 so far) to have a good OBP of .381.

Michael Bourn is the most obvious case of high number of steals being a Trojan horse. He sits at seventh in MLB with 33 steals, but he’s batting just .232 with a godawful .286 OBP. Despite this, he’s collected 267 of his 362 at-bats in the leadoff position. It took way too long for the Astros to pull the plug on Bourn as the leadoff hitter, especially considering his batting average was mired below .200 in mid-May. .232 is actually close to his season high. Bourn can best be described as a fringe baseball player, only still in the bigs because of his ability to steal.

Meanwhile, Reyes wowed the league by easily taking the steals crown of 2007 with 78 steals, obliterating the Mets’ team record. He also was caught stealing 21 times, more than his 2006 total of 17 and looks to be more than his 2008 total (so far, 11). Outside of his steals, Reyes’ 2007 looks to be his worst offensive year out of the last three. He had more HRs and RBIs and a higher batting average and slugging percentage in 2006. He looks to have more HRs, more RBIs, a higher batting average, and a higher slugging percentage in 2008. Reyes also has a higher OBP in 2008 than in either 2006 or 2007.

Too often, in baseball, we focus too much on one aspect of the game, whether it be steals for leadoff hitters, home runs for sluggers, or wins for pitchers. We fail to look at the whole package, and that causes the misvaluing of players. Of all the players in the top 10 in baseball in steals, Reyes looks like the best overall player.

This new (and surprising) youth movement that Omar Minaya has established at Shea certainly wasn’t planned. There were injuries, specifically in the outfield. Then there were injuries to the bench players who replaced them. After seeing this, it seems as if Minaya threw up his hands and decided to raid Double-A Binghamton.

Oddly enough, though, the “star” of the Mets farm system is not among them. Fernando Martinez, a man Mets fans had clamored for in light of the outfield injuries, remains in the minors. Metsblog had the story on July 24 when he left the game with a hamstring injury. He returned on August 5, but one would suspect with his recent injuries and his .287 average with 5 HR and 26 RBIs, he isn’t getting the call tomorrow.

Metstradamus interpreted the non-call of Martinez as reason that Minaya’s youth movement is not simply to appease fans, and I agree. For example, the call-up of Nick Evans came out of nowhere, and he was the first player from Double-A up on the Mets squad. Mets fans might have heard of Dan Murphy before his call-up, perhaps in the kind of semi-fame Mike Carp enjoys with Mets fans, but I don’t think anybody was clamoring for his appearance at Shea. It’s not just throwing the cards on the table; there seems to be a method to Minaya’s madness.

But some would call it simply that — “madness.” In Ted Berg’s latest column for SNY.tv, he criticizes the arrivals of Murphy and Evans, saying both have had little time at Triple-A and both are not traditional outfielders. These are valid complaints, but ultimately, both were called up for their bats. Evans hit .311 with 14 HRs and and 53 RBIs in 296 at-bats at Binghamton, while Murphy hit .308 with 13 HRs and 67 RBIs in 357 at-bats. The team has shown a willingness to sacrifice defense at the corner-outfield positions to bring more offense (see: Fernando Tatis, Marlon Anderson, et al.)

In the same breath, Berg again cheerleads for Triple-A New Orleans slugger Valentino Pascucci, who is batting .283 with 24 HRs and 66 RBIs in 321 at-bats with the Zephyrs. His OBP is a sparkling .409 with them. Pascucci becomes especially relevent, since another Triple-A slugger, Fernando Tatis, has enjoyed success at Shea in 2008. But for whatever reason, the Mets brass don’t seem to be as enamored with him. With an older player such as Pascucci, they certainly aren’t protecting him in any way, to be sure. There is just something about him they seem to dislike, which has caused the team to choose countless players over him. One would then begin to wonder why he is still in the organization if he is so decidedly not in favor.

Ultimately, I have no problem with the moves Minaya has made in bringing up Evans, Murphy, Argenis Reyes, and Eddie Kunz, but I feel Mets fans have irrational expectations for young players to be excellent right off the bat. For example, since Mike Pelfrey wasn’t a lights-out ace right off the bat, he was much maligned for a good two years. A. Reyes is an example of a player that Mets fans have conditioned their expectations for and accept on the basis of his strengths and weaknesses. Meanwhile, Evans impresses with a debut day of three doubles and then disappoints greatly when he doesn’t have follow-up games in the same vein. Murphy has come out to a good start, but I fear he may suffer the same fate as Evans has.

It’s hard to manage the careers of youth during a pennant race. Berg argues that these tryouts would be acceptable in a forgotten, lost year but not in 2008. This makes sense because in a pennant race, if Kunz doesn’t show the results of a big-league closer immediately, the team cannot have time for him. In the same way, if Tatis continues to hit and Ryan Church comes back, suddenly Murphy and/or Evans are simply riding the pine and potentially stunting their growth as players. The ultimate goal for the Mets, of course, is winning and doing whatever it takes to win. But the odd timing of the youth movement truly complicates matters.

There was something about Fernando Tatis that Mets fans and commentators did not want to embrace. It was too easy to compare Tatis to other reclamation projects like Brady Clark, Abraham Nunez, and Sandy Alomar, Jr. Tatis was just another old player trying to relive past glory. So used to the idea of these projects failing, nobody held out any hope that it might succeed this time, but it has.

If Tatis does nothing else this year, even if he starts batting .150 down the stretch and loses his spot in the lineup permanently, this project was definitely a success. Tatis had a good year to clobber baseballs down in Triple-A New Orleans to refine his power, then he moved up and amazingly, clobbered some baseballs on the major league level. Sometimes those statistics do carry over. Sometimes it really is that easy.

In 177 at-bats, Tatis has a .316 average with 9 HRs and 33 RBIs. At first glance, his power might remind of 2007’s Damion Easley. Easley hit 7 HRs in his first 74 at-bats that year but then finished with 10 HRs in 193 at-bats, numbers more in line with his career averages.

Admittedly, Tatis could just be on a streak as well. He had 1 HR in his first 90 at-bats. Since then, he has 8 HRs in his last 87 at-bats. But Tatis has career statistics that suggest he could keep up his power, at the very least. In 2002 with Montreal, he had 15 HRs and 55 RBIs in 381 at-bats. That’s more or less his statistics as a Met doubled. In 2000 with St. Louis, he had 18 HRs and 64 RBIs in 324 at-bats. So even after his mammoth 34 HR year in 1999, he showed the potential to slug. It’s just his batting average and on-base percentage, which he hadn’t shown he could keep respectable again until now. In 2000, his OBP was still good (.379), but his batting average had slipped to .253. In 2002, he batted a miserable .228 with a .303 OBP.

Career-wise, Tatis has walked, keeping his OBP around 100 points higher than his batting average. This makes his current average of .316 and OBP of .361 interesting, as its one of the shorter gaps of his career. Perhaps he feels the hot streak and wants to go after pitches to slug. But for example, in his mammoth 1999 year, he had a sparkling .404 OBP, over 100 points higher than his average. In 2000, he had a .379 OBP, again over 100 points higher. So maybe if pitchers begin to pitch around him, he’ll take the walks, rather than take ugly swings and lose his hot streak.

Ultimately, one can continue to doubt the legitimacy of Tatis if they wish, but this is a hot streak any logical Mets fan should want to ride out. Carlos Delgado might be coming out of his slugging stupor. Does that mean riding out his streak wasn’t worth it? Of course not. Let’s ride this one out, as well.

The matter of who goes into the No. 2 hole in the order is often overcomplicated in baseball, and at times, certain hitters are glorified as ideal “No. 2 hitters,” (see: Luis Castillo), when it’s just a sort of backhanded compliment for an okay slap hitter. And that’s not even what the ideal No. 2 hitter should be.

The No. 2 spot is not about intangibles; it’s not about David Eckstein-level scrappiness. It’s about getting on base, period. Perhaps this is just a generalization, but it seems like half the time these scrappy slap hitters struggle to have OBPs around .350, which is hardly exemplary. For example, Eckstein, a leadoff hitter for the most part, has a career OBP of .351. Castillo’s career OBP is better, .368, but that is inflated a bit by great years with the Marlins in 2000 (.418) and 2005 (.391).

The Mets have struggled with the quandry of the No. 2 hole for some time now. Paul Lo Duca was the Mets’ “answer” in 2006 and 2007. How Lo Duca was ever lauded for his No. 2 hitting baffles me. He had an okay OBP in 2006 (.355) based almost entirely on his good batting average (.318). When the batting average left in 2007 (.272) , so did his OBP (.311). That doesn’t even begin to tell Lo Duca’s failure at the No. 2 spot in 2007. He actually batted .234 in 128 ABs in the No. 2 spot in 2007. His overall average was brought up by a .298 average in 151 ABs when batting 7th that year.

Lo Duca was always praised for taking pitches in the No. 2 hole so Jose Reyes could steal bases. However, he took 3.45 pitches per plate appearance in 2006. To put that into perspective, 148 batters take more pitches per plate appearance in 2008 than Lo Duca did in 2006. 2008 Jeff Francoeur is slightly more patient than 2006 Lo Duca.

So the Mets decided to go in a different direction, a platoon for both an offensive upgrade (Castro) and a defensive upgrade (Schneider). But neither was the answer to the No. 2 hole, so the Mets looked to other alternatives, primarily Luis Castillo. For what it’s worth, when healthy, Castillo sports a .372 OBP when batting 2nd in 2008, as opposed to a .318 OBP when batting 8th. Castillo is a step up from Lo Duca, as far as getting on base goes, but that isn’t saying a lot.

It’s fine to try someone like Castillo, who has a history of being this “type” of player, in the No. 2 hole. It’s fine to try some of your better hitters. When it becomes braindead managing is when anyone is just thrown into the role, basically treating the No. 2 hole like it’s a second No. 8 hitter. Does that make any sense, especially considering anybody who bats with any regularity in that role would get more at-bats in those games than David Wright? Yet, this is the methodology taken when poor regular hitters like Marlon Anderson have occasional at-bats in the No. 2 spot or youngsters like Nick Evans are just flung right into the role.

Another common misconception about the No. 2 hitter is that it should be for just any speedster on the roster, regardless of hitting prowess. This is another reason why Castillo is viewed as an ideal hitter, despite the fact that he’s hardly a stolen-base leader these days. Just the capacity to steal bases is the key. Take for example, Endy Chavez, who has collected a whopping 103 at-bats at the No. 2 spot in the lineup in 2008. The speed demon is batting a respectable .291 in those ABs, but his OBP is just .324. And like Castillo, he’s another guy that immediately goes to the No. 8 spot when not batting 2nd.

Someone like Ryan Church doesn’t fit the typical No. 2 hitter mold, but he was a better fit than Lo Duca, Castillo, and Chavez in his limited time there. He scalded the ball at a .322 clip with a .400 OBP. Part of the reasoning why he didn’t become a fixture at the spot was that the Mets lineup ached for power hitters at the time, and Church’s bat was the most potent. It’s a good argument, but I’d expect Church’s power numbers would have eroded a bit, and he would have fit the No. 2 mold even more over time.

The current No. 2 hitter, Carlos Beltran, has of course had the “Bobby Abreu argument” bandied around his name for virtually his entire Mets’ stay. When Beltran is slugging with the best of them, I agree, he probably should not be batting 2nd. But in 2005, with the way he produced, he might as well have batted 2nd. With his 2008, a dip from his 2006 and 2007 mammoth slugging, it’s right that he’s batting 2nd again.

With the way the lineup is stacked up currently, it’s gotta be Beltran in that No. 2 spot. A manager cannot give away at-bats to glorified 8-hole hitters when Beltran is clearly more adept at getting on base. Batting him fifth, as became the custom when Carlos Delgado took over the No. 4 spot, was foolhardy. It was backwards logic. Why have an OBP guy batting towards the bottom of the order? It made no sense. Even with a .266 average, Beltran still sports a .364 OBP, which would obviously shoot up with any hot streak. Beltran is a guy who has effortlessly maintained an above-average OBP throughout most of his career, even when his batting average and power have dipped. Things can change as players get on and off hot streaks, but this is the right move for right now.