There has been some criticism of the red hats that have been worn around baseball, from a few Mets bloggers.
Over at Kiner’s Korner, Gene Anthony lambastes MLB for attempting to, “capitalize on every friggin’ opportunity to make a dollar.” At Mets Blog, Michael Baron (no, not the famous Scrabble player) says, “i am all for patriotism, but frankly it looks like every Met was traded to the Phillies…”
Yet, if you are curious, the hats are not some desperate attempt to steal a few extra bucks from baseball fans. The hats are in honor of a charity, Welcome Back Veterans, with the proceeds from all purchases of those caps going to the charity. Go to MLB.com, to read the official press release.
Welcome Back Veterans is an initiative launched by Major League Baseball and the McCormick Foundation that aims to improve the life of United States veterans, who often struggle with employment and various mental health issues after serving in the army. To donate, go to the McCormick foundation, who along with MLB have covered all overhead so that all dollars donated go directly to programs and services for veterans. If you would like to buy the hat, go to the shop on MLB.com.
Maybe the hats are tacky, but they are not an attempt to steal a few extra bucks from fans.
You have by no means had a poor year. Going into last night you were batting .342. That’s pretty gosh darn good. Your .919 OPS isn’t too shabby either.
My real question is: where has your power gone? Are you aware that you currently have the lowest slugging percentage you’ve had in your entire Major League career?
Seriously, if the Mets wanted a player with mediocre power and a good batting average, Omar Minaya would call call the Pirates and demand for Freddy Sanchez.
Perhaps Citi Field has had an effect on you – you do have a noticeable difference between your home and road splits. Your batting average, slugging percentage and on base percentage are all higher on the road. Still, you have one home run on the road this year. That’s only one more home run than I have on the road this year, and you have 130 more at-bats than I do.
Can Citi really be that intimidating though? C’mon broham it’s a baseball field. Maybe the fence is a few feet deeper and higher in a couple places, but that doesn’t account for such a dramatic drop off in production. Maybe you’ve changed your swing some to adjust to the new surroundings, but whatever you’ve changed isn’t good. The team can deal with your power outages when Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran are in the lineup, but certainly not now.
Beyond the power, your head doesn’t appear to be in the right place. You have to understand, that other than you – and Gary Sheffield when he’s able to play – the Mets’ lineup would be on the bench for most major league teams. Knowing this, you’ve still been unbelievably passive at the dish. When there are guys on first and second with one out, why do you take strike three so often? Are you looking for the walk? Even if you walk, it would be spoiled by Fernando ”GIDP” Tatis.
I swear, I want to slap you every time you take strike three, which happens all too often. When you’re batting third or fourth, you are being paid to hit the ball, not to leave the bat on your shoulder. If you’re gonna strike out, at least go down taking a huge whack at the ball, not watching it sail into the catchers glove and then staring at the ground with that dejected look Mets fans have become way too accustomed to this year.
Don’t confuse this with hate mail, or hate e-mail, or hate whatever you want to call it. In fact, it is truly the opposite; I probably care too much about watching you live up to your potential and play how you should and can.
For some reason, Omar Minaya was sold on the idea that the Mets could grab the former 5th starter from the Nationals - a player the Nats didn’t want back – and turn him into the 5th starter for a contending ball club. This experiment has failed.
Tim Redding is by no definition of the word passable, a passable starter for a contending team.
In his eight starts this season, he has had only three quality starts. That means, if you don’t have your TI-83 in front of you at home, five of his starts have been un-quality. What is even worse is how he is not only bad, but he fails to go deep into games. In half of his starts he has failed to finish the sixth inning. Forcing the bullpen to pitch 3+ innings to win a game screams disaster.
There is no one statistic that can justify his poor performance and suggest that change is coming – he has just been bad. Perhaps, Redding would be better suited for the bullpen; after all the Mets could use a long reliever. In fact, Redding seems like he would succeed in this role: his biggest troubles come when is pitch count rises. Between pitches 76-100, batters have been hitting .368 off of Redding with a whopping 1.125 OPS. Ouch. Pitches 1-25 batters are hitting .225 with a .635 OPS.
Nelson Figueroa is the logical replacement for Redding. Figgy, while no All-Star, can’t be as dreadfully abysmal as Redding has been. Some people have said that it is unfair to keep on calling up Figueroa and then designating him for assignment, as in the reason he refused his assignment last time. Well, if the Mets aren’t going to use Figgy when two starters are on the DL, when are they going to ever need him? Plus, he is an employee of the New York Mets; they pay him to do his job, and that’s part of his job.
For the Mets to tread water at this point, they can’t have starters throw away games. Redding does exactly that, and this is why the Mets can no longer afford to put him out there every fifth day.
Encouraging start for Oliver Perez last night for the Brooklyn Cyclones. In five innings, he struck out six, allowed only two hits and walked one batter. The most encouraging factor in this outing is the one walk – in single A, anybody should be able to strike the batters out and prevent the hitters from getting hits. But, a walk at single A is the same thing as a walk at the big show; the strike zone doesn’t change. Walks are what plagued Perez prior to his trip to the DL, so if he can limit those, then he should find success.
Wait, did I say the Brooklyn Cyclones? I totally meant the Baracklyn Cyclones!
Fernando “GIDP” Tatis should not start. Not only has he been poor at the plate, he is dreadful in the field. His arm makes Johnny Damon’s arm look like Raul Mondesi’s. Perhaps Tatis is dealing with issues from his separated shoulder from last year.
Over Tatis, I would rather have all of Fernando Martinez, Jeremy Reed or Nick Evans out there. Maybe they should give a shot (or another shot) to Cory Sullivan, Emil Brown or Jesus Feliciano.
Baseball is a funny game: Nick Evans just barely missed making the major league team out of spring training, batted .093 in triple-A and comes up hitting well in the Majors.
Mark Teahen is a perfect fit for the Mets.
When Gary Sheffield plays against the Yankees, he puts a little something extra into his swing.
F-Mart has been on the big league club but has not been starting consistently: possible power struggle between Omar and Jerry?
“That which does not kill makes us stronger” — Friedrich Nietzche
It’s no secret that the Mets have a better roster on their DL than they do in Flushing, with a plethora of injuries leaving a decrepit roster that now features Fernando “GIDP” Tatis batting clean-up. Yet, the more I think about it, the less I become concerned about these injuries.
There are only a few weeks until the All-Star Break, and all signs point toward that being the first time Jose Reyes might return and when the team may get a better sense on when Carlos Delgado will return. Carlos Beltran is on the DL for a knee injury, so even if he returns quickly, he probably won’t be playing at 100%.
Yet, I believe playing through this rough stretch should teach the team something. If this team can make it through the middle of July with a record around or above .500, it should teach them how good they can and should be once they are at full strength.
Looking back on it, have the Mets been much worse since players have gone down?
When Delgado played his last game, the Mets were four games above five hundred. When Reyes got hurt, the Mets were two games above five hundred. They are currently one game above .500 following last night’s loss. So yes, they are a couple games worse, but such small margins are also prone to natural fluctuations.
I think it has frustrated everybody over the past couple years because the Mets always seem to have solid tools without coming through. Now, it should become clear to the team and a source of motivation for the players that the team is winning a similar amount of games without players like Delgado, Reyes and Beltran compared to when they are healthy. As long as they can grind it out and not fall completely out of it in the next few weeks, they should be able to learn something more important, the reinforcements will return to make a mentally stronger team.
At this point, relegated to only first base duties, Daniel Murphy isn’t playing everyday. For the sake of the big league club, that’s probably for the best. Yet, for Murphy, it’s not. For this, the Mets should send him to triple-A where he can play everyday.
With Delgado injured, the 1B duties have been split between Murphy and Fernando Tatis. While I do believe Murphy has a greater upside, the difference in their play thus far has been rather negligible, and the difference in their play for the rest of the year will probably be similarly insignificant.
There are also players in triple-A that can come up and match Murphy’s .245 batting average. Mike Lamb can play both 1B and 3B, while Wily Mo Pena has been playing at 1st – though he has no Major League experience there.
But, for the sake of Murphy’s development, he should be playing everyday. Even if he is playing fairly regularly right now, he isn’t playing close to regularly vs. lefties. This is what is probably best for the team – but not Murphy. Unless the organization plans on him being a platoon player for his entire career, Murphy needs to learn how to hit lefties at some point. I have a tough time believing that he can learn how to hit lefties without playing against them regularly, like he could do in the minors.
Moving Murphy down wouldn’t really harm the major league time, while it is very important for his development.
As explained by Matt Cerrone from Mets Blog, the Mets are considering a variety of new songs for the 8th inning sing-a-long to replace Sweet Caroline. Among the suggestions up for vote are ‘I Like it Like That’, ‘Shout’ (a personal favorite) and ‘Curly Shuffle.’
Here are my suggestions for some tunes that would be fantastic for the Citi Field atmosphere. Some of these suggestions are serious, others . . .well, not so much.
The Safety Dance, by Men Without Hats – just remember, “we can dress real neat from our hats to our feet and surprise them with a victory cry.” (If this song is played, the music video is a must as well)
In the Summertime, by Mungo Jerry – I just listen to this song and think of a day game in July.
America, by Neil Diamond – what says baseball like the United States of America? Besides, this could set a wonderful precedent in which only Neil Diamond songs are allowed to be sung during sporting events.
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Rock the Casbah, by the Clash – amusing, exciting, American, and a fun chorus to sing-a-long with.
It happened almost a week ago now, but I would like to take a few moments to consider the fate of ex-Mets and ex-Braves SP Tom Glavine. In case you have been living under a rock, Glavine was recently cut by the Braves without throwing a pitch for them this season.
By doing so, the Braves saved $1 million in salary that they would have otherwise had to pay him if they activated him. For ESPN.com, Buster Olney laments this “butchery” as he calls it. Olney believes that Glavine deserved the “Griffey treatment” – a nice farewell tour in the home city like Ken Griffey Jr. is having in Seattle.
Olney says:
The Mariners’ respectful treatment of Griffey helps us understand why the Braves’ handling of Glavine on Wednesday was particularly awful, like butchery with a pen knife.
–snip–
By dumping Glavine before he appeared on their roster for one day, the Braves are able to avoid paying him a $1 million bonus that would have been due the day he was activated, plus any subsequent bonuses — money that now might be more useful to them in other ways, such as in paying new center fielder Nate McLouth, who was acquired in a trade with the Pirates shortly after Atlanta announced the release of Glavine.
Maybe I just harbor extremely bitter feelings from Glavine’s abysmal effort in his final start for the Mets, but I don’t feel bad for Glavine.
Baseball is a business – whether people like it or not. Yes, I believe teams should generally treat their hometown players well. But isn’t it hypocritical of Glavine to expect anything better of the Braves than what he gave them?
In 2003, Tom Glavine made a business decision to accept a $42.5 million deal to play for the Mets. The Braves offer was for less money, so it is difficult to blame him for accepting the Mets lucrative deal. Nonetheless, he did make a decision based on money to leave the Braves, and to stick it to them even more, it was with their division rival.
There is another distinction that has to be made with the Griffey comparison made by Olney. The Braves look as if they can and will contend for the NL East division title this year, whereas it is very dubious as to whether or not the Mariners will be in the hunt for the AL West title. So, the Mariners can afford to place an aging Griffey out there, for a last hurrah while if the Braves want to contend, they need to be putting out their best arm possible every fifth day.
So, actually, I think Glavine just got a taste of his own medicine.
In a recent Twitter update, Matt Cerrone asked, “Let’s assume Church goes on the DL, and a trade can’t be made, why shouldn’t the Mets promote Fernando Martinez? Anyone?”
Ooh, anyone? Pick me, pick me, please mister!
It isn’t time for F-Mart yet. There are two primary reasons for this: his preparedness and the dearth of playing time he would receive.
On the issue of preparedness, first of all he is 20 years old. That said, this is his fourth year in the minors so he has done his time. That time however, has not been all productive as he’s spent many stints injured and unable to play. Martinez has only had 1086 at-bats, and it is general baseball theory that a player needs 1,500 at-bats in order to be ready (see Jerry Crasnick’s column on ESPN).
The second issue is the more important and pertinent one: if he were to come up, would he play everyday? If the answer to this question is no, then it is certainly injudicious to call him up. As a 20 year old who only has slightly above 1000 professional at-bats, he should be playing everyday in order to develop.
If the answer to that question is yes – he would play everyday – is that a wise decision in its own right? Maybe yes, maybe no, with a prospect like F-Mart it’d really be rolling the dice. On the one hand, it wouldn’t be a bad thing that he would be taking at-bats away from Angel Pagan (the only person alive who tries to bunt more than Luis Castillo) or Jeremy Reed. But on the other hand, for a team that looks to be contending this year, do you really want such an unproven commodity playing OF daily? Scouts rave about him, and I was amazed when I watched him last season in spring training, but this is the same guy that is batting .283 career in the minors without a special amount of power. Still, at least if he were playing everyday his progress wouldn’t be stunted while he sits on the bench.
So, the Mets should probably wait on calling F-Mart up. He hasn’t played enough professional baseball and hasn’t been spectacular enough to make up for his lack of experience. The only circumstance in which they should consider it is if they were to play him everyday and not neglect him of the at-bats he needs to develop. Yet, if they cannot make a commitment to giving him those at-bats up at the big show, it would be best to give him at bats everyday for triple-A Buffalo.
Given the Mets current 1B situation, how would you like a 22 year-old first baseman with a .301 batting average, eight home runs and 22 RBIs in triple-A this season? To round this off, this same player has a .415 OBP and a .566 SLG for an extremely solid .981 OPS.
Who is this studly young prospect? None other than Mike Carp, part of the Mets package that was sent to Seattle in return for J.J. Putz.
Now, I’d be duplicitous to say that I knew this would happen and that I’ve been vehemently against the Putz trade, but that is not the case. I believe that Putz is integral to the success of the Mets, and if the Mets are going to do anything special this year, he and Francisco Rodriguez will be equally important in anchoring a solid bullpen.
Nonetheless, it is frustrating to know that at a time when the Mets 1B situation is in limbo, the Mets traded away the potentially best solution.
Unfortunately, instead, at triple-A the Mets have the 30 year old Michael Abreu who is hitting a whopping .214 with a mere .614 OPS. Abreu has played 23 games at first, while Nick Evans has played 22.
Been wondering about Evans? The word putrid would be ashamed to be associated with him. For Buffalo he has batted .093 (yes, that is with a zero after the decimal), with a .445 OPS. Since then Evans has been sent to extended spring training and then will go to double-A where hopefully he can find some shred of decency. The Mets have no immediate help at 1B from other places in the minors, with the mediocre prospect Lucas Duda manning 1B at double-A.
In the end, this may be a trivial discussion if over the next few games Daniel Murphy were to prove than he can be the first baseman of the future. Yet, at this point I find myself wondering if whether or not Omar could have acquired Putz without moving Carp (and still without movingFernando Martinez and Jon Nieseof course). And also, perhaps, Carp will turn into a mediocre or insignificant major leaguer, and again this discussion is insignificant. Given the Mets situation however, I am left wondering how different things could be.
I typically scorn the WFAN caller that says loudly enough so that you have to turn your radio down, “Hey STEVE, first-time-long-time, thanks for taking my call. How are you? Anyway, Steve, why don’t the Mets sign C.C. Sabathia and then trade him for Carlos Lee? The way I see it, the Mets sign Sabathia, and then the Astros could really use a nice ace, and the Mets could really use a nice outfield bat. Thanks for taking my call, I’m gonna hang up and listen to your response.”
My general point is that too many trade suggestions are proposed foolishly and without considering that this isn’t MLB 2K9 or fantasy baseball.
The Mets catching situation is currently pretty poor, with either Omir Santos or Ramon Castro behind the dish every night. Santos began his MLB season with a bang, but he is currently batting .264 with a very modest .698 OPS. Some players are career minor leaguers for a reason. Castro has an even lower .254 BA but is slightly better than Santos with .721 OPS. The point is, neither of them is deft enough behind the dish to make up for this lack of production on offense.
As Ken Rosenthal mulled on Fox Sports on Monday, the Indians probably won’t trade slugger Victor Martinez, who has been the best hitting catcher in baseball this season. Yet, would the Indians consider trading Kelly Shoppach?
Shoppach was always a decently touted catching prospect, who was once blocked in Boston by Jason Varitek and then in Clevelend by Martinez. Yet, last year while Martinez was injured, Shoppach broke out with 21 HRs in 352 ABs.
Shoppach plays a decent amount for the tribe, yet certainly not everyday. When Shoppach plays it is usually at catcher, and he displaces Martinez to either 1B or DH. Especially when Travis Hafner returns from the DL, however, the Indians will have an even greater logjam in terms of finding playing time for Ryan Garko, Hafner, Ben Francisco and others.
Shoppach is a solid defensive catcher, hence why when he plays it is usually with him at catcher and Martinez at 1B and not vice-versa. Although he has a fairly average 30% caught-stealing percentage in his career, he is strong in other facets behind the plate.
This year at the dish Shoppach has struggled, hitting only .227. He only has three home runs, but this is also as a part time player. Perhaps if given a more regular role as he had last season, he would produce like last year again. Shoppach certainly has his flaws. He strikes out way more than he should, which leaves him prone to a low batting average as he has now. Still, on potential alone he is an upgrade on what the Mets currently have.
If nothing, Shoppach should not be too difficult to acquire. Although the Indians do play him somewhat regularly, they do not appear is if they are going to contend this season and he is not a building block for them in the future as Victor Martinez or Cliff Lee might be. At the same time, Shoppach has hit arbitration and is an expensive back-up for a team like the Indians that certainly needs to spend money in some other areas.
If the Mets didn’t have to give up any of their top prospects, would you be happier with Kelly Shoppach at catcher? I certainly would.
In a post to the McCover Chronicles, Grant outlines what he believes is “The Jonathan Sanchez Paradox”. Grant defines this paradox as:
When you are frustrated with Jonathan Sanchez’s development and entertaining thoughts of trading him for a hitter, Sanchez’s trade value is at its lowest. When Sanchez’s trade value is at its highest, it’s when he looks like a franchise pitcher, which is someone who shouldn’t be traded away for what other teams would probably offer. Therefore, Sanchez will never be traded.
The reason I link to this, and mention this, is because it hits closer to home than it seems. It is for the same reason that this Sanchez paradox, while interesting in theory, is false.
Take Sanchez, a 6′2″ lefty with remarkably good stuff but regular inconsistency. Last season was his first full season as a starter. In 158 innings, he struck out almost one man per inning with 157 K”s. At the same time, however, he walked almost 4.5 people per nine innings with 75 BB’s.
So, an inconsistent lefty with good stuff that strikes a lot of guys out but walks too many guys . . . sound familiar yet?
Oliver Perez is a 6′3″ lefty, that falls into this Jonathan Sanchez paradox that is outlined in the post linked above. Similarly, Perez is a strike out machine that has gotten more than one guy per inning in his career, but at the same time, he walks more than 4.5 guys per nine throughout his career. Like Sanchez, Perez is consistent and should, according to this ‘paradox’ never be traded.
Yet, as we as Mets fans know, Perez has been traded twice. First he was traded in 2003 from the Padres to the Pirates, and then in 2006 to the Mets. Because Sanchez and Perez are such similar pitchers, it is specious to argue that because a pitcher can appear so good but pitch well so inconsistently, they will never be traded.
In fact, it might be the opposite. Some inconsistent pitchers may be more available in trades because teams get frustrated with their irregular performance but other teams are willing to take a chance on their upside.
When the Mets traded for Victor Zambrano, he was thought to have good stuff only if he could locate the strike zone. Couldn’t a similar thing be said for former Generation K pitcher Bill Pulsipher when the Mets traded him away? Other pitchers have been let go because of such problems, such as Daniel Cabrera – non tendered by the Orioles over the winter.
Yes, the original argument is hardly Mets related. The Mets, however, show that this claimed paradox as a general rule of thumb does not hold true. Sure, it’s possible that Sanchez won’t be traded, but it is also unfair to say that he most certainly won’t be. This is especially true when the Giants have such strong SP prospects in their system with Madison Bumgarner and Timothy Alderson.
Not that it would happen now, or this year in this lucrative contract, but is it ridiculous to say there is a shot Ollie one day gets traded again?
We here at Hot Foot enjoy celebrating the brave and creative. Though it is not particularly clever, it is only in good taste that I present to you Citi Field’s first streaker:
For what it’s worth, it is interesting to look at some of the Mets SPs BABIPs and other stats early in the season. If you’re not familiar with BABIP (Batting Average on Balls put In Play), check out the Wikipedia article, which has a simple explanation.
Essentially, the idea is that a pitcher’s BABIP remains relatively consistent, so if they have a particularly low BABIP, it is a sign that they have been lucky and the success has been exaggerated or fluky. Similarly, if a pitcher has a BABIP significantly above their career totals or normal levels in general, they have likely been unlucky and will likely improve from where they are then. Naturally this is all just a rule of thumb and clearly doesn’t always hold true, but it can be a fairly accurate predictor nonetheless.
Now, before I continue, let me establish this lemma to place the Mets starters in a larger context. The Mets SPs have the fifth most walks in baseball, 77, but three of the four teams that have walked more players have played more games. At least through walks, the Mets have put an extraordinary number of players on base – thus if more hits were to start dropping then the Mets would be in loads of trouble.
Although we are merely in May, let’s take a look at the Mets rotation, and how each pitcher’s outlook appears through the interesting, yet limited scope of BABIP.
Johan Santanahas a BABIP this year of .247, below his career average of .276. It should come as no surprise, however, that some regression should come from Santana – I can’t imagine many people expect him to retain the 0.91 ERA.
Mike Pelfreyis not as easy to diagnose. His BABIP of .297 this year is below his career total of .315 and last year’s number of .307. So, despite his 5.46 ERA, has Big Pelf been lucky? Not so fast, in fact it’s quite tough to tell. All of Pelfrey’s numbers are out of whack so far this year, so he is particularly difficult to judge. Pelfrey has only struck out six guys in 28 innings this year, for a putrid 1.9 K/9, while at the same time he’s walked 14 men.
Those miserable peripherals indicate that he deserves his 5.46 ERA – but why are those peripherals so bad? Well, according to Fan Graphs, Pelfrey’s fastball is .8 MPH slower than last year while his second fastest pitch, his slider, is down .4MPH – neither of which are major drop offs, but they are dips nonetheless. The major change is with his two off speed pitches, the curveball and changeup. His curveball has been 2.4 MPH faster than last year while the change up is 1.8 MPH. That, in addition to the fastball and slider drop off, makes for a much less significant speed deferential and a much more hittable pitcher. So, unless Pelfrey can fix this, he’ll remain extremely prone to contact and will fail to K guys.
Oliver Perez has had an abnormally high BABIP, but similar to Pelfrey, he has been a victim of his own speed problems. Beyond the 21 walks in just as many innings, Perez has seen a significant decrease in has fastball speed from last season, 2 MPH, while his changeup has been 4.6 MPH faster. Is it the knee problem? Complacency after getting a nice contract? I’m sure we’ll get a chance to see later this season.
John Maine has had an extremely low BABIP of .222, compared to his career total of .269. Yet, Maine has walked 20 guys in 33.2 innings. Once more hits start to fall against Maine, he could be in trouble – he needs to find the strike zone or more runs will cross home.
Ultimately, if the Mets pitchers want to succeed throughout this year they need to cut down on their walks. Especially with Maine, who has the most noticeably low BABIP, more hits are likely to fall so the walks are going to come back to bite them more than they have. Pelfrey as well has walked too many men, but perhaps he turned a corner by only walking one guy in his last start. Yet, he will not be able to find much success if he continues to strike so few guys out. In case you’re curious, he has not struck out a guy in his previous two starts. He only went K-less twice all of last year.
Despite this nice winning streak, the Mets pitchers still have a lot to work on.
If you’d like to read some more about BABIP and an interesting correlation, read this old yet still relevant Hardball Times article.
If the Mets fail to make the playoffs, it will be a true testament to the atrociousness of the back of the bullpen. For the typical team, an entire rotation has to be very good in order for them to make the playoffs. Yet, when there is a stud muffin such as Johan Santana at the front of the rotation, the last four starters have to be just barely above average in order for the team to be very good.
Let me explain.
In Santana’s career, the team he starts a game for has a .675 winning percentage. That’s not his win-loss percentage, this includes no decisions – so when Johan starts a game, the team he has started for has won that game 67.5% of the time. Pretty good, eh?
In reality, that number is probably a conservative estimate for predicting the future because Johan was unfortunate last year in terms of the bullpen losing so many games for him, resulting in 11 no-decisions.
But, for argument’s sake, let’s say this season the Mets will 67.5% of Johan’s 34 starts (the number he should have in a healthy season). In case you do not have a calculator handy, that means the Mets will win 23 of his 34 starts: 12 games above .500.
Thus, if the Mets were to go .500 in the games when anybody but Johan is starting, the Mets would have a record of 87-75. Not too shabby on its own.
Yet, 87 games won’t necessarily get the teams to the playoffs, so unless Johan is going to be even more super human than going 12 games above .500 on his own, the other starters will have to chip in – but barely.
To get to a respectable number like 91 or 92 games, which should net the Mets at least a wild card birth, the 2-5 starters (currently Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, John Maine and Livan Hernandez) as a unit have to go four or five games above .500, essentially one or two games a piece. This, by no means should be too much to ask for especially given the Mets have a supporting offense that is far above average.
Yes, this is all under the lofty presumption that Santana will not get hurt, and that he will stay around his career average. But, give or take a game or two on Santana, it does not alter the basic premise of this argument.
By being so incredible, Johan Santana on his own allows the rest of the rotation to be fairly pedestrian in order for the Mets to have a very good record. To this extent, we know who to blame iff the Mets don’t make the playoffs.
In this week’s Baseball America Hot Sheet, Mets 1st round draft pick from last year Reese Havens is featured at number seven on the list. The scoop reads:
The second of two Mets’ first-round picks last year (22nd overall), Havens has been one of the FSL’s most productive hitters thus far. A lefthanded batter with a grinder mentality, he leads the league with seven extra-base hits as part of a .320/.407/.600 start as St. Lucie’s shortstop. The fact that he’s playing the field again is just as encouraging as his hitting, after he spent his time DHing with short-season Brooklyn in his debut last season. Havens lacks classic shortstop actions, though, and already has committed five miscues in 13 games.
Hmm, a lefty grinder type that is solid at the plate but is prone to miscues in the field . . .that sounds oddly familiar *cough* Daniel Murphy *cough*
What are your thoughts on Reese Havens? Will he get promoted to Double A Binghamton at some point soon? He really looks the part as a potential offensive minded second baseman. Anyone else on the St. Lucie roster to watch out for..Zach Lutz maybe?
The talking heads responded saying:
Matt Eddy: Sit back and enjoy the ride. Havens doesn’t figure into the big club’s plans for ‘09, so a late-season promotion to Double-A may be in order if he continues to perform. And yes, I agree with you. Havens’ approach is a breath of fresh air for an organization that hasn’t really focused on grinding, professional hitter types in recent years.
Matt Eddy: Two St. Lucie players (who didn’t crack our Top 30) to watch: 22-year-old LHP Angel Calero, who’s posted an 0.82 ERA to go with 10-4 K-BB in 11 IP. Also, 21-year-old CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis, the Mets’ third-rounder last year from NAIA Azusa Pacific (Calif.). He’s not hitting at the moment, but he’s a physical lefty batter who may emerge with enough repetitions.
I’ve always had a policy that I don’t look at the division standings until at least Memorial Day. The point isn’t that I have some religious or voodoo tradition around it, but instead I believe it is too long of a season to get antsy about the division so early.
The beginning of the baseball season the Mets should be focusing on developing good habits – taking two of three from teams they should beat while doing that some of the time against stronger teams.
Too much will change from now until even just the beginning of June to make any sort of division standings worth examining at this point. This beginning of the season should be a period to observe the team, while identifying weak spots and trends that need to be corrected for the long haul.
Beyond all of this, analyzing standings right now is stressful as it always is both for fans and I’d imagine players as well. It’s not fun to know how much the Mets are trailing the Marlins by, but that should be considered minutia relative to how many games in the season are left. In addition to this, it is a long season for the players and we’ve seen the Mets wear down at the end – so perhaps relieving stress earlier on will payoff later.
In summation, I challenge everybody – fans, bloggers, players and Mel Kiper Jr. alike to all avoid looking at the division standings until Memorial Day.
Um, speaking of Mel Kiper Jr, on an unrelated and non-baseball note – it’s getting to be crunch time for him. We all know he spends 363 days a year perfecting his year for those two days on ESPN. We also know that while he is perfecting his hair, Todd McShay is working 20-hr shifts to cover the work for both of them.
The Mets hitting in scoring position this season – or lack thereof – certainly deserves some derision from fans to start the season. Yet, beyond that, the Mets have been largely unlucky, something that will or should balance out through an 162 game season.
Let’s just look at the first few innings of last night’s game. They had three singles, two walks and only one run to show for it in the end. Part of this was due to two double plays. David Wright‘s DP was particularly unlucky as he absolutely scorched a ball that happened to be right at the second baseman who was covering second as Jose Reyes stole.
Whereas the Mets had three hits and two walks, the Cardinals had three hits, including a double, and three walks in the first three innings. They just managed to avoid double plays and string the hits together more nicely, so they ended up with three runs after three.
In the first game of the series, the Mets had three hits and a walk in the first inning, yet with only one run – largely in part due to Daniel Murphy getting picked off but if we’ve learned anything about Murphy in his brief career is that he’ll never let a mistake like that happen again. So, the Mets had the same amount of hits as the Cardinals, but two less runs in the end.
Yes, part of this is a failure on the Mets part. But, at the same time, some of this is also bad timing and bad luck, something that should balance itself out as they still have 148 games to play in this very long season.
