I’m afraid, Kaz Matsui has cursed the Mets.
In December of 2003, when the Mets signed Kaz Matsui to a three year, $20 million deal, it appeared to be beacon of light for the Mets in that they were opening themselves up to the world and taking advantage of the international free agent market the way any smart team should. Whether it was because of jitters, poor scouting, or whatever, the Matsui to the Mets experiment failed and since then the Mets have been unwilling to seriously commit themselves to international free agents at the Major League level.
Since the Matsui signing was such a failure, it seems as if the Mets organization as a whole is afraid to seriously invest again in the international free agent market. The Mets were second in the sweepstakes for Daisuke Matsuzaka, but coming in second for those things is a whole lot similar to coming in third, fourth, fifth or sixth, it just doesn’t really matter.
Beyond the Japanese market, there is the Cuban market. Though relatively unexplored, players have recently come from Cuba and been successful. Kendry Morales has had a breakout season this year while Alexei Ramirez has had decent times in his two year MLB career. Last year’s Cuban free agent prize Dayan Viciedo is still a bit away from being MLB ready in the White Sox farm system, so judging him is premature.
Now, if the Mets have any interest in seriously competing, they need a number two starter. To stack up against the Phillies, the Mets not only have to gain a middle of the order bat, but an arm that can help shoulder the load with Johan Santana. That starter could come from the regular 2010 free-agent pool, but no starter from that pool is a sure thing.
John Lackey will be 31 in two weeks, and hasn’t made it through a full season since 2007, is signing him to a long term contract ideal? Randy Wolf is reliable, but is he really worth the potential price he’ll command especially given that he’s 33? Is it wise to gamble on the health of Rich Harden or Ben Sheets?
To me, the answer to all of these questions is no. The most intriguing solution, and the one the Mets should seriously pursue, is Aroldis Chapman.
To start off with, Chapman is 21 (22 by opening day next year). Though often with these defectors and international free agents, age is a question, yet there are no rumors swirling around about Chapman to indicate anything should be untrustworthy. So in terms of age, Chapman is still moving towards the prime of his career while the majority of the interesting free agents are moving away from their peaks.
In regards to upside, and talent, Chapman is also the cream of the free agent class. Say the words 6′4″ lefty, and most scouts would already be giddy. But as Jorge Arangure Jr. wrote for ESPN.com in March, Chapman has a fastball that can get up to 102 MPH. Now, that’s cool. Plus, like any other international free agent Chapman would not require the Mets to forfeit a draft pick (even though their first round pick is protected this year, they’d still have to give up a later one).
Yes, he is relatively unproven, given his age and lack of exposure. Yet, the Mets aren’t going to find a flawless starter out there in free agency this year, so they might as well go for the guy with the giant upside.
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Pete Lappin (3)
