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Passing On Lowe Looks Smart

By Rich Resch on July 2, 2009 at 10:04 am  

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Many people, including myself, have criticized some of the decisions made by the Mets front office.  Some of the criticism is warranted, some is not.  But roughly half way through the season, it seems that Omar Minaya’s decision to pass on free agent pitcher Derek Lowe was a smart one.

At the time he was signed, Lowe was easily the most appealing pitcher on the market.  At one point, it seemed as if the Mets signing Lowe to a 3 year deal was imminent.  But when the Braves upped their offer to include a 4th year, Minaya decided not to overspend.

While I was upset that the Mets let Lowe get away, I understood that the 4th year and the extra money was a deal breaker.  Signing old players has been a weakness of Minaya’s, but maybe he is starting to learn from his mistakes.

In 17 games for the Braves, Derek Lowe is 7-6 with a 4.44 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, 55 strikeouts, 35 walks over 101.1 innings.  His deal with the Braves is worth $60 million over 4 years, which means he’ll be making $15 mil as a 39 year old.

He is only 10 walks away from reaching his total from last season, and he is on pace for only 117 strikeouts and 75 walks.  Both would be among the worst marks in his career.

While this may just be a bump in the road for Lowe, it is also possible that his age is starting to catch up with him.  The 13 year veteran turned 36 in June, and is experiencing his worst season in 5 years.

I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he turns it around and finishes with an ERA around 3.70.  But at some point, his body is going to break down, and the Braves will be on the hook for his heavy contract.

I, for one, am glad that the Mets did not take this gamble.


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  • James K.
    Don't look at ERA for evaluating a pitcher. Lowe's fielding independent pitching stats are much better than the inflated ERA suggests. His FIP is 3.72 and his tERA is 3.55. These are much better judges of actual performance and predictors of future performance. Meanwhile Ollie is at a 6.03 FIP and 6.54 tERA. Replace Ollie with Lowe and the Mets are likely in first place, despite all their injuries. Bottom line, it's way too early to be writing blatantly anti-Lowe and Ollie-defending things like this.
  • This piece wasn't pro-Ollie at all, although even you saying that suggests that you agree that Perez was probably the next best option.

    You can't really know how replacing Perez with Lowe would actually have turned out. Obviously he'd be better, right now. Will that be the case at the end of the year, or have the Mets/Warthen destroyed Ollie? I thought Perez and Lowe would finish would roughly comparable numbers this year, and it'd be hard to expect Lowe to get better in following years. Arguably both contracts are a gamble, but Ollie's got an upside, while Lowe has a downside.

    And for all the stats you can throw out there and claim are better, bottom line is that the Braves haven't won enough in Lowe's starts. Perez was injured, and badly coached in Spring and April this year. (Don't tell me he wasn't injured, with the way the Mets pitching performed in June, if he could pitch, he'd be here) While it's too early to evaluate the two against each other, Lowe certainly isn't looking like a clear win, and that says a lot given Perez's unperformance this year.
  • Rich Resch
    Lowe's FIP is about consistent with his career numbers, but his K:BB ratio is alarming. Ollie's advanced statistics don't really tell us anything we don't know, since we all know how much he's struggled (in a small sample size).

    Lowe is going to have the better numbers this season, but I'd still rather have Ollie over the next two years than 37-39 year old Lowe for $15 mil over the next three years.

    I don't understand how it can ever be too early to write an article that basically updates the scorecard on the Mets offseason. I'm not saying that the Braves signing Lowe was a bust; I'm merely saying that he isn't currently living up to his contract. Just like any mid-season article, I am judging this on half a season of baseball. This isn't a Derek Lowe eulogy, it's an assessment of his disappointing start.

    As far as replacing Ollie with Lowe, I'm sure if the Mets had actually signed Lowe, he would be on the DL right now.
  • LC
    Dude thats better than Oliver Perez,,how many wins does Oliver have so far?
  • The Mets are just as much on the hook with Ollie, who I have far less faith in than Lowe.
  • Rich Resch
    The Mets are not just as much on the hook with Ollie. The Braves owe Lowe $60 million over 4 years. The Mets owe Ollie $36 million over 3 years. Huge difference.

    In 2012, the Mets will have $15 more to spend than they would if they had signed Lowe, and they will have saved $9 million over the past three years.

    The Ollie signing has not turned out well so far, obviously. This article isn't meant to directly compare Lowe and Perez anyway, it is meant to point out that the Lowe signing hasn't been a great success either.

    The Perez article I wrote is meant to instill some hope that he will be able to turn it around.

    Lowe is better than Perez; no one is arguing this fact. Gut that doesn't mean the Lowe deal will turn out to be better than the Perez deal.
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