It is expected that Jonathan Niese will eventually get another shot in the big leagues this season. But has Brad Holt jumped him as the Mets best pitching prospect?
Toby Hyde of SNY’s Mets Minor League Blog ranked Holt as the Mets #3 prospect behind Fernando Martinez and Wilmer Flores; Niese is #4. Baseball America, one of the most recognized authorities on prospects, ranked Niese above Holt.
I’m going to have to side with Hyde on this one. Niese is a nice prospect, but Holt has higher upside, better stuff and has experienced more minor league success.
Holt dominated the New York- Penn League last season, recording an ERA of 1.87 in 72.1 innings pitched, with a whopping 96 strikeouts and 33 walks.
In Advanced Single-A this season, he had a rough go of it early (one terrible start elevated his ERA). But Holt hit his stride and lowered his ERA to 3.07, with 50 strikeouts and 10 walks in 41.1 innings pitched, or 1.19 ERA, 45 Ks and 6 BB in 37 IP since his first start (hat tip to Not4Nuttin). Holt was recently promoted to AA where he has only had one start.
If John Maine and Oliver Perez can come back healthy and pitch effectively, there may not be a need at starting pitcher, especially if Fernando Nieve and Livan Hernandez continue to pitch well.
But if Holt is nearly as successful in AA as he was in A, perhaps the Mets will look to call him up late in the season; if not as a starter, then out of the bullpen a la Bobby Parnell last season.
The big knock on Holt is that his secondary pitches are unrefined compared to his great fastball. But since relievers don’t need to employ as many different pitches as starters, he may be used effectively as a reliever for the Mets in September while he continues to develop his secondary pitches.
The Mets have been known to move their young prospects aggressively through the minors, and they have called players up from AA to the majors before. Holt is only 22, but so was Jonathan Niese when he was called up last season. It will all depend on how he fares against an improved quality of hitters in AA.
With the way Jerry Manuel has overworked the bullpen lately, relief pitching has become yet another question mark (which could have been negated if they had just hung on to Darren O’Day, who has blossomed into one of the AL’s best relievers…just saying…). If J.J. Putz and Billy Wagner return effectively, the Mets bullpen could again be dominant. But as we saw last year, you can never have too many quality arms.
Right now, Holt is out of action with an ankle injury, but the future looks bright for this supplemental 1st round pick. Perhaps we’ll get a sneak peak of the future in the Mets bullpen this September.
Pete Lappin (3)
