In a post to the McCover Chronicles, Grant outlines what he believes is “The Jonathan Sanchez Paradox”. Grant defines this paradox as:
When you are frustrated with Jonathan Sanchez’s development and entertaining thoughts of trading him for a hitter, Sanchez’s trade value is at its lowest. When Sanchez’s trade value is at its highest, it’s when he looks like a franchise pitcher, which is someone who shouldn’t be traded away for what other teams would probably offer. Therefore, Sanchez will never be traded.
The reason I link to this, and mention this, is because it hits closer to home than it seems. It is for the same reason that this Sanchez paradox, while interesting in theory, is false.
Take Sanchez, a 6′2″ lefty with remarkably good stuff but regular inconsistency. Last season was his first full season as a starter. In 158 innings, he struck out almost one man per inning with 157 K”s. At the same time, however, he walked almost 4.5 people per nine innings with 75 BB’s.
So, an inconsistent lefty with good stuff that strikes a lot of guys out but walks too many guys . . . sound familiar yet?
Oliver Perez is a 6′3″ lefty, that falls into this Jonathan Sanchez paradox that is outlined in the post linked above. Similarly, Perez is a strike out machine that has gotten more than one guy per inning in his career, but at the same time, he walks more than 4.5 guys per nine throughout his career. Like Sanchez, Perez is consistent and should, according to this ‘paradox’ never be traded.
Yet, as we as Mets fans know, Perez has been traded twice. First he was traded in 2003 from the Padres to the Pirates, and then in 2006 to the Mets. Because Sanchez and Perez are such similar pitchers, it is specious to argue that because a pitcher can appear so good but pitch well so inconsistently, they will never be traded.
In fact, it might be the opposite. Some inconsistent pitchers may be more available in trades because teams get frustrated with their irregular performance but other teams are willing to take a chance on their upside.
When the Mets traded for Victor Zambrano, he was thought to have good stuff only if he could locate the strike zone. Couldn’t a similar thing be said for former Generation K pitcher Bill Pulsipher when the Mets traded him away? Other pitchers have been let go because of such problems, such as Daniel Cabrera – non tendered by the Orioles over the winter.
Yes, the original argument is hardly Mets related. The Mets, however, show that this claimed paradox as a general rule of thumb does not hold true. Sure, it’s possible that Sanchez won’t be traded, but it is also unfair to say that he most certainly won’t be. This is especially true when the Giants have such strong SP prospects in their system with Madison Bumgarner and Timothy Alderson.
Not that it would happen now, or this year in this lucrative contract, but is it ridiculous to say there is a shot Ollie one day gets traded again?
Pete Lappin (3)
