Take a Chance on Sheets

There really must be something in the medical records of free-agent RHP Ben Sheets that is absolutely frightening — something that looks like a sure thing like having to pass on golfing if there’s an 100-percent chance of rain. Otherwise, why isn’t Sheets on a team by now? Better question: why isn’t he on the Mets already?

Let me preface this by saying that, so far, I am relatively pleased with this Mets offseason. Acquiring closer Francisco Rodriguez and setup man J.J. Putz puts a symbolic Band-Aid on the Mets’ bullpen woes. That’s good enough for the Mets fan’s psyche, even if reliever Joe Smith is sorely missed. At the same time, Minaya rid himself of past bullpen cancers like Aaron Heilman and Scott Schoeneweis. (Yes, both these guys are better than their reputations, but it’s just easier to start over fresh with some of this bullpen. This ‘pen was mostly the same from 2006 to 2008, and people are ready for a change after last year.)

It also seems like Omar Minaya has finally learned from his past. Moises Alou, Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez, and even Oliver Perez are not Mets, as of Feb. 1. It’s possible that Perez could re-join the club, and it wouldn’t kill me because I like him. I just do not think he’s worth even a four-year deal in my ideal world, especially with seemingly no other suitors. Regardless, it’s highly doubtful that Perez would sign for less than four years and a relatively high annual salary.

It wouldn’t be the end of the world if Perez re-joined the Mets’ rotation. Perez is young, he’s a lefty, he’s got talent and he would give the Mets a good rotation, provided the top four starters stay healthy. If everybody exceeds expectations and Jon Neise breaks out, relegating Tim Redding to unimportant innings, then it could be a great rotation. Matthew Cerrone has mentioned at Metsblog numerous times that Perez could be traded in the future. But what if he became extremely ineffective and erratic? Hey, he doesn’t have a reputation for that, does he? At the very least, if that happened and it would not be all that surprising, then the Mets would lose heavily in a trade.

Now where is this all going? Well, while Derek Lowe, AJ Burnett, and Jon Garland were all signing deals, while Oliver Perez, Randy Wolf, and Pedro Martinez get interest from the league, where is Sheets?

Now I completely understand Lowe and Garland being signed before Sheets. Despite Lowe being five years older and way more expensive, he also has started at least 32 games in the last seven seasons. He’s finished the season with a sub-4.00 ERA in five of those seasons. That’s the kind of consistency the Mets could have used. They must have been reluctant with Lowe’s age and him depreciating under the contract. (After all, the Mets have a history of being where careers go to die and signing pitchers who are getting their last big money, multi-year deals. One could argue Martinez and Tom Glavine are recent examples. Wait, how much did Steve Trachsel get?)

Lowe was also on the 2004 Boston Red Sox and won each series-clinching game, but I think that is weighted a bit too much in terms of the discussion about it. It’s a big accomplishment, yes, but it was five years ago and it’s such a small sample compared to the rest of his career. I guess because of that month in 2004 you can call him an “established winner” or something but it doesn’t really add anything to the discussion.

Meanwhile, Garland has started at least 32 times per season for the last eight years. Even though he’ll give innings, Garland is highly overrated considering he’s only posted a sub-4.00 ERA twice in a nine-year career and a sub-1.20 WHIP only once. Most of the time, Garland posts years just at tick under a 5.00 ERA and around a 1.50 WHIP. Not great seasons, in my opinion. As a fifth starter, hey, he’s a better option than Redding, but anything more is asking too much to me. The fifth starter role is generally your role for someone who gives you innings which are not necessarily quality. There’s no more slots for that in a rotation.

Burnett has had some quality seasons, but not of the quality that warrants the five-year, $82.5 million deal the Yankees gave him. But even if he did, he’s about as injury-plagued as Sheets. And this is where the argument against Sheets becomes illogical. Between 2003-2007 (a period spanning five seasons), he only posted 32 starts once and at least 25 starts twice. Though Burnett started 34 games in 2008 and won 18 games, he had a 4.07 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP, not exactly sparking statistics.

Anyway, those guys have already signed, so it’s moot to argue them down anyway. What about these other jokers?

Whether due to quality or injury, Wolf has not had too many full seasons starting in the majors. 2008 marked the first year since 2003 that he’s pitched a full season’s slate of games. And 21 of his 33 starts last year came with the San Diego Padres, a terrible team that probably did not have a better option. The other 12 came from a general manager who loves him for some reason. Wolf also has not posted a sub-4.00 ERA or a sub-1.20 WHIP since 2002. Add on top of that, Wolf is probably just using the Mets as leverage to get back to the west coast and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Mets may be doing the same, but the mere threat of signing Randy Wolf (when you already have Redding) is an insult. Also Wolf is a little older than Sheets.

The sheer absurdity that the Mets could potentially sign Pedro and not Sheets is hard to fathom. Martinez has the same high risk for injury but without the high reward of ace-like stuff that Sheets has. Even when healthy, Martinez is just average these days. An argument for a Martinez signing is purely a nostalgic one. Adding Martinez back to the rotation is also another return to the dreaded status quo. By the way, Martinez in 2008: 20 starts, 5-6, 5.61 ERA, 1.57 WHIP.

Redding is basically a guy who has made a career out of one full season. In 32 starts with the Astros in 2003, he went 10-14 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Ever since, he’s basically been either bad or out, though in 2007, he put up 15 starts and had a 3.64 ERA (coupled with a high 1.45 WHIP). Redding was signed based on this 2008 season: 33 starts, 10-11, 4.95 ERA, 1.43 WHIP. Those are ugly numbers. Redding’s ERA steadily climbed since the middle of May last year. Yet Redding is the primary choice for 5th starter. There had to have been somebody of a comparable price who was a better option. And even if there wasn’t, not spending on so much (bad) depth would have saved money to spend more on the 5th starter.

The Mets still technically need two starters, because Redding is certainly not a lock at the fifth spot, and even when competing with Neise, I don’t think anyone is comfortable with that spot. Obviously, before that, the Mets desperately need a higher starter. If it’s Perez, it’s No. 3 or No. 4. If it’s many of the others still available, it’s definitely No. 4 and hell, maybe No. 5 by the end of the year that we’ll be getting. If it’s Sheets the Mets sign, it could be a starter who is as good as No. 2.

Take a chance on Sheets. Like Burnett, Sheets had a rebound year in 2008: 31 starts, 13-9, 3.09 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 158 K, 47 BB. In fact, he had a better year than Burnett. Even in 2005 and 2007 when he missed parts of the season, he still managed to start at least 22 games each year AND post sub-4.00 ERAs. The only year in his eight-year career where he’s started less than 22 games is 2006, when he started only 17.

Sheets is supposed to be looking for a two-year deal? What’s the hold up? Are you really reluctant about a two-year deal? Orlando Hernandez got one! The Mets signed Moises Alou to play left field for this team in consecutive offseasons! The Mets locked up Luis Castillo for four years! How is he so mind-numbingly conservative about Sheets after these foolhardy moves? Give him two years. Heck, give him three. Make him a starter on this team, and then try to go after Perez. Act like you do not necessarily need him now but would like to have him, and see if he lowers his price a little.

Gah, how in the world do the Mets keep expressing interest in Wolf publicly and yet keep throwing smokescreens about Sheets talk? I pray to God that this is just really good Mets intel.