Maybe the Mets and their fans don’t want to bring Oliver Perez back because he reminds them of three years that have all ended tragically. Perhaps, it’s because they are afraid of his inconsistencies.
Yet, he is a better option to sign than Derek Lowe.
Perez and Lowe have both been hurt by the weak economy, and Lowe will likely land a three year deal with an option. Perez is hoping to do better, yet not too many teams seem to be giddy about gambling money on his erratic arm, so he will likely be in a very similar price range to Lowe.
Given this, Lowe attracts people because he is proven to be reliable and appears to be the lowest-risk candidate out there.
On the other hand, Lowe is 35 years old and will be 36 in June. Maybe he’ll be very productive this season, but how about in 2010, 2011 and potentially 2012? Paying him to be a front end of the rotation starter when he’s 40 is not something I’m particularly interested in.
Ollie on the other hand, is 27 years old, right when pitchers tend to hit the prime of their careers. Although he is notoriously inconsistent, consistency comes with experience and age, both of which he will be gaining by the day. He also has very high upside, and as a general manager, I’d comfortable paying him four years from now – unlike Lowe.
Finally, there is the difference in pitching style between Lowe and Perez. Lowe, a sinkerballer, is as heavy of a ground ball pitcher as they come, getting 64.4% of his career outs via the ground ball, compared to 19.4% of his outs via the fly ball. Perez, comparatively, has a ground ball rate of 33.1% and a fly ball one of 47.3%. (Thanks to Fan Graphs for those stats)
As discussed in this Amazin Avenue post, that I have also linked to earlier in the day, Citi Field is going to be a very unfriendly ball park to home runs. This sort of spacious ballpark behooves fly ball pitchers, such as Ollie. Naturally, he’ll be the same erratic pitcher that has trouble on occasion throwing strikes no matter what stadium he is pitching in, but the deep walls at Citi will certainly help him on the balls that do go into play.
Pete Lappin (3)
