I am likely in the minority here but I believe the Mets should at least consider signing Adam Dunn. Dunn just lost one of his potential suitors, the Cubs, and the Dodgers, Nationals, Orioles and Mariners are reportedly still interested in the left handed slugger. I would much rather sign the 29 year old Dunn than break the bank for a 36 year old Manny Ramirez. While Manny is undoubtedly the best hitter available, Dunn would come with a younger body, a cheaper price tag and less drama. Below is a list of common concerns regarding Dunn and my thoughts (counterpoints):
1. Dunn is a poor fielder
While Dunn is clearly a slow footed and below average fielder, I think the Mets can take a hit in LF to get a big bat that has reached the 40 HR plateau in 5 consecutive years. Church has proven to be a solid fielder and having Beltran (and his range) in CF would soften the blow of Dunn’s poor fielding. While you could argue he is better suited for the American League, we are talking about what is best for the Mets, not Dunn (who has expressed a strong desire to stay in the National League). Additionally, Dunn could serve as an “insurance policy” should something happen to a 37 year old Carlos Delgado (to his hot bat or his body) since Dunn has played a good amount of first base throughout his career. Dunn has proven to be durable since 2003, when he suffered a knee injury. Since then, he has played in at least 152 games each season.
2. Dunn strikes out too much
Dunn struck out 164 times in 158 games in 2008. Dunn also led the National League in walks with 122 (in second was Pujols with 104). The man gets on base and has kept his on base percentage consistently in the high .300’s throughout his career despite a very low average. As they say: a walk is as good as a hit. I know an all or nothing approach is a little scary but his patience is likely also the cause of many of his strikeouts.
Also, Dunn led the league in pitches per plate appearance (4.32). No Met finished in the top ten with respect to that under appreciated statistic. Very often this past season I felt as though the Mets pitchers were working much higher pitch counts than the opposing pitchers.
Additionally, the following NL players had more strikeouts than Adam Dunn in 2008: Ryan Howard, Mark Reynolds, Dan Uggla and Chris Young.
In an average 25 plate appearance sample, Dunn would produce 2 home runs (1 per 12.9 AB’s), 6 strike outs (162 K’s in 639 PA’s, about 1/4) and about 5 walks (122 BB’s in 639 PA’s). That’s more walks and home runs than strikeouts. While strikeouts can be rally killers, Dunn can also be a place setter and/or game changer.
3. The last thing the Mets need another left handed bat with Carlos Delgado, Ryan Church, Brian Schneider and potentially Daniel Murphy in the lineup.
Despite all of these lefties, the Mets have two players, Carlos Beltran and David Wright, that feast off of lefties. Wright and Beltran finished 3rd and 5th in the National League respectively in slugging percentage vs. LHP (Wright also had a .382 average and .497 OBP against lefties, not too shabby). As long as Wright and Beltran are staggered among the lefties in the lineup, I am comfortable with all the lefties. And after all, weren’t the Mets interested in the left handed Raul Ibanez for awhile?
The Mets could easily configure a lineup that makes the surplus of lefties a less severe issue. A 2-6 of: 2. LH Ryan Church (This is not what I would typically prefer but just for the sake of example), 3. RH Wright, 4. LH Carlos Delgado, 5. SH Beltran, 6. LH Dunn. While we may watch Dunn strike out in a big spot, we will also inevitably see him hit big home runs. There is no way to forget that Dunn hit .195 against lefties last year but he also hit 10 HR’s and drew 33 walks in those 151 at bats (to a decent .351 on base percentage). It is also important to note that Dunn hit .270 against lefties in 2006. For his career, Dunn has a .235 average and a .359 OBP against lefties. (Note: I am not arguing he is good against lefties, just saying I can deal with it given the positives).
4. Dunn has a low batting average
Again, this is not much of a concern for me because of his high walk totals. Dunn was 9th in the National League in on base percentage. The only Met with a higher on base percentage (with a substantial number of at bats) was David Wright at .390. Dunn’s OBP is clearly not bad for a guy with a .236 average.
5. What about Fernando Martinez?
We know Fernando Martinez will likely not be a big part of the 2009 New York Mets. If the Mets were to sign Dunn to a multi-year deal, it does not mean he will be in left field for the entirety of the contract. This could be Delgado’s last year as a Met and Dunn could take over Delgado’s spot at first base and (hopefully) F-Mart will be ready to take over LF in 2010.
6. What about Daniel Murphy?
As of now, Murphy is slated to share the left field duties in a platoon situation with Fernando Tatis. These guys are far from sure things to produce like they did in 2008. I believe Daniel Murphy is the perfect two hitter for this team but it is always possible he is the next Jason Phillips so maybe Omar would consider either selling high on Murphy or giving him a shot at second base. He proved to be serviceable at the position in the Arizona Fall League. Nonetheless, Murphy is not the hitter that Adam Dunn is. Even with his .313 average, Murphy mustered a .397 on base percentage in 131 at bats. Dunn’s career OBP, despite his career average of .247, is .381 (.386 last season).
7. What will Adam Dunn cost?
Pat Burrell just signed a 2 year, $16 million contract with the Rays. At the beginning of the off-season, I thought Burrell was going to get a lot more than that. In my eyes, Burrell is a right handed, poor man’s Adam Dunn (and 3 years older than Dunn). On the other hand, Milton Bradley just got a 3 year, $30 million deal from the Cubs complicating the market. The bottom line is Dunn would cost a lot less than what Scott Boras is demanding for Manny Ramirez’s services (and issues). If Dunn has to settle like Burrell did, I see very little downside in at least inquiring as to how much his bat could cost the Mets.
While these concerns and arguments are preliminary and likely incomplete, they should be enough for at least a meeting with Dunn’s agent.
