Undoubtedly, two of the best acquisitions Omar Minaya has made were for Oliver Perez and John Maine. For players that turned out to be quality starting pitchers, he acquired them at below market rates with the only valuable piece leaving in either of those deals being Xavier Nady.
The biggest similarity between Perez and Maine is that they are fly ball pitchers, who undoubtedly benefited from the transition to a pitcher friendly ballpark in Shea Stadium. While it’s difficult to predict how a ball park will seem prior to actually playing games in it, Citi Field will probably favor pitchers according to its dimensions and design. A spacious ball park specifically favors fly ball pitchers, because while Ryan Howard my hit some home runs that are easily out in Citizens Bank Park, they are caught on the warning track of many other stadiums.
Of the elite SPs available, Ben Sheets serves up the most fly balls. According to Fan Graphs, Sheets has a fairly equal ground ball-fly ball ratio, unlike some pitchers like A.J. Burnett or Derek Lowe who both live off ground balls. While ground ball pitchers are great, they benefit less from a spacious stadium. Sheets is also moving from pitching half his games in Miller Park, which is usually considered to be either fair or hitter friendly.
Most people would agree that Sheets is extremely talented, and arguably an ace – when healthy. However, I think it is important to review the specific injuries before being overly cautious. More often than not, his ailments have not involved his arm – generally a good sign when trying to evaluate if his injuries will hamper him in the future. These injuries include a bulging disc in the back, and an ear infection that resulted in dizziness and balance issues. So, if you’re worried about his arm for the future he is generally in good shape (even though he has had some shoulder tendonitis and a current forearm strain). Because of this injury concern, currently from the lingering forearm strain, the Mets can probably sign him at a discounted price.
Minaya should learn from his prior successful moves in Maine and Perez and look to sign Sheets as his main off season free-agent acquisition. Sheets can join Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana in anchoring a potentially stellar Mets rotation for the future.
