 |
|
In Marty Noble’s most recent mailbag on NYMets.com, he discusses why he thinks David Wright is the Mets MVP over Carlos Delgado. This made me think about what defines an MVP and more specifically, a team MVP. This will be a long post so bear with me.
Valuable (noun): Of great use or service. I.E. “Valuable Advice.”
WHEN DETERMINING A TEAM MVP, YOU MUST CONSIDER THREE FACTORS:
1) Which player contributed most over the course of the entire season
2) Which player contributed most when it mattered most. Luckily, and also unfortunately, it mattered most for the Mets in September. For example, you would say that July was most important for the Marlins (when they were near the top of the division).
3) The “But-For” Test. But-For this player, where would the Mets be? This is a difficult test but very important in determining a Team MVP in a given year. What would the 2008 Mets have looked like had X player not been around?
The test cannot be based solely on (1) because a player because a great player could easily tank in September. The test cannot be based solely on (2) because a player could struggle ALL YEAR only to come up in September. The test cannot be based solely on the But-For test because numbers alone don’t answer the question of where the Mets would be without a given “valuable” piece of the puzzle.
There are five players I would consider for Mets MVP: Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, David Wright and Johan Santana. All five players had very strong statistical years. Finding an MVP among them is a difficult process.
1) THE ENTIRE SEASON
I. David Wright: 160 games, 33 HR, 124 RBI, 94 BB, 15 SB, .303 AVG., 42 2B, 2 3B, Defense: A-
His average was down throughout the year but he stepped it up and had a great, complete, year. He did not have slumps that compared to Delgado’s April and May and that is a deal breaker for me.
II. Jose Reyes: 159 games, 16 HR, 68 RBI, 66 BB, 56 SB, .297 AVG., 37 2B, 19 3B, Defense: A-
Reyes had his best year and that is saying a lot. 72 Extra Base hits and 56 SB’s from a leadoff hitter is extremely valuable. He slumped into early May but picked it up from there and never looked back.
III. Johan Santana: 34 starts, 16-7, 2.53 ERA, 3 CG, 2 Shutouts, 234.1 IP, 206 K, Defense: A
Johan did not finish the sixth inning in only THREE of his starts. Remarkable. If Reyes and Wright did not have such spectacular numbers, Santana would be #1. I was very tempted to make Johan #1 here.
IV. Carlos Beltran: 161 games, 27 HR, 112 RBI, 92 BB, 25 SB, .284 AVG., 40 2B, 3 3B, Defense: A+
I know people will not be a fan of me putting him before the other Carlos, but Beltran had a fantastic season at the plate. His power and speed, along with his defense put him ahead of Delgado. He also struggled in April and May but not as drastically as Delgado.
V. Carlos Delgado: 159 games, 38 HR, 115 RBI, 72 BB, 1 SB, .271 AVG., 32 2B, 1 3B, Defense: B
Delgado had an April and May to forget. In the end, he had a fantastic season with a plethora of big, memorable, home runs. From July through September, he was a stud. Nonetheless, over the course of the whole year he only had more extra base hits than Beltran (71 to 70) and if he had hit in April and May maybe the Mets would have had a better record going into his hot July? Marty Noble correctly noted that Delgado’s production was poor until the Mets were 77 games into the season. While his power significantly helped carry the Mets back into contention, you cannot say he had a complete MVP season.
2) WHEN IT MATTERED MOST (Looking at September #’s)
I. Johan Santana: 4-0, 44.1 IP, 9 ER, 1.83 ERA, 47 K’s.
The numbers that really matter are those from his last two starts. Everyone knows the story. 17 IP, 2 ER, 3 days rest, 1 Complete Game shutout with the season on the line and of course: 1 legend.
Also, Santana did not give up more than 2 earned runs throughout the entire month of September. And don’t forget that he hasn’t lost since June.
II. Carlos Beltran: 32-95, .337 AVG. 6 HR, 19 RBI, 6 SB, 16 BB
I am putting Beltran ahead of Delgado because in the last 4 games, Beltran was 6-14 with 10 Total Bases, a HR and 3 RBI’s. That is a tie breaker for me in a September where both men were great.
III. Carlos Delgado: 33-97, .340 AVG., 8 HR, 22 RBI, 0 SB, 11 BB
I am putting him behind Beltran because in the last 4 days, Delgado was 2-15 with only 1 RBI and 2 total bases. Again, that is my tie breaker.
IV. David Wright: 31-93, .333 AVG., 6 HR, 19 RBI, 1 SB, 12 BB
He had very close numbers to Beltran. However his lack of SB’s and less BB’s make me give the edge to Beltran. And it just felt like Delgado and Beltran had bigger hits in bigger spots. (Until the very end).
V. Jose Reyes: 26-107, .243 AVG., 3 HR, 12 RBI, 10 SB, 10 BB
If he hit .300 like he did the rest of the year, who knows…I’m not going to say he “collapsed” in September, however. Reyes just didn’t put up his normal numbers. That’s all.
3) THE “BUT FOR” TEST
I. Johan Santana
Imagine if the Mets went into September with a rotation of: Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, Pedro Martinez, Jon Niese?, Brandon Knight?. The bottom line is the Mets rotation is not pretty without Johan. Pelfrey and Maine are the most reliable guys outside of Santana and Maine went down and Pelfrey is still a youngster. There is no doubt that Johan has become the most irreplaceable piece on the Mets.
II. Jose Reyes
We all know how this goes. The Mets go as Jose goes. Imagine if we did not have Jose leading off. Who would have led off? Luis Castillo? Daniel Murphy? Honestly Carlos Beltran is the best leadoff replacement I can think of. No one on the Mets roster came close to being the complete leadoff hitter that Reyes is. He is very close to Santana here.
III. David Wright
Who would have played 3rd base without Wright? Damion Easley? Then who plays second? Fernando Tatis?
IV. Carlos Delgado
V. Carlos Beltran
Between Wright, Delgado and Beltran it is essentially a toss up. Nonetheless there would be a hole in the lineup. If the Mets did not have Endy Chavez to replace Beltran’s defense then he would have to go higher on the list.
If Beltran, Wright or Delgado were to go down, the Mets have offensive weapons to at least “try” to make up for their absence. There is no leadoff hitter to replace Reyes and there is absolutely no ace that can replace Santana.
CONCLUSION:
Overall, it is clear to me (feel free to disagree/argue/comment) that Johan Santana was the MVP of the 2008 New York Mets. The only factor he did not win, “Entire Season,” I could have easily made an argument for Johan to be number 1. I can’t say the same about Reyes and Wright in the other categories. Thank heavens we have him for 2009 and beyond.
Offensive MVP? That is tougher. If it weren’t for September I would probably be inclined to choose Reyes. Overall, however, David Wright would have to be the MVP because he performed consistently throughout the entire season. Delgado was the reason the Mets catapulted themselves back into contention after the 77 game mark but had he put up at least average numbers in those 77 games, the Mets would have had no need to be catapulted. We as Mets fans know that every game matters and all of those 77 games mattered. A lot.
Who is your MVP of the 2008 New York Mets?
Sphere: Related Content |
 |
7 Responses for "How to Define a Team MVP."
wow. long article.
Delgado. Without him, we are not even near the top of the division.
Reyes or Santana. Power hitting 1B are a dime a dozen. Elite SS are special. Only Hanley Ramirez tops Reyes’ SS production in all of baseball this year. With a league average SS, the Mets would have scored a lot less runs than with a league average 1B.
Looking at stats like VORP, OBP and SLG helps with MVP discussions.
This a really well thought out article. I thought the “But-For” Test was great. It’s like a simplified VORP. I agree that quantitative statistics (for a full season) are the way to go for talking about an MVP. You can use those numbers however you want them which i like.
Johan Santana is the MVP. Hands Down. He is #1 in all categories and without him the mets would have been a disaster.
Benjamin,
I think you misunderstand VORP. The “replacement player” at each position is not the backup player each team put’s in to spell starters - it’s a mathematically calculated fictitious player based on minor league players statistics. This “replacement player” is readily available. Fernando Tatis was head and shoulders above this “replacement player.”
Read up at Baseball Prospectus or a number of other places about it. It’s a great stat that I wish more people knew about.
I know it is not the backup player at each position. It is a ficticious replacement player who is an average fielder and a below average hitter. It is someone that the Mets could pick up to replace a player at below average cost. I think it is better to think of it in terms of players that are readily available off your bench when evaluating a Team MVP.
I know that VORP is a very nice statistic for looking at a player’s marginal utility but I was looking at the 2008 Mets and who was valuable to the 2008 New York Mets and not as compared to the rest of the league. That is where the “but for” test comes into play. For example, David Wright’s value to the 2008 Mets is directly related to who would pick up the slack if he were not in the lineup. That would be a Damion Easley or a Fernando Tatis. Yes Tatis and Easley are better than the “replacement player” but the Mets had these guys in 2008 and they are concrete factors that go into Wright’s 2008 value. Don’t get me wrong, VORP is a fascinating statistic but I think for this particular exercise it is better to look at what the 2008 Mets actually had to iron out a player’s value to this team.
I’m splitting hairs here, but I still don’t see how the “but for” test as you are using it makes any sense.
The question is, “But for this player, where would the Mets be?” I don’t think the answer to “but for David Wright…” is as simple as Damion Easley or Fernando Tatis. If D-Wright didn’t exist, any of a number of players could be 3B - not necessarily guys on the current roster. Additionally, had he torn his ACL on March 31, who’s to say the Mets would’ve gone with Easley/Tatis at 3rd? Maybe they make a trade or sign someone or whatnot.
Again, I’m being Devil’s Advocate here. I just think it’s easier and makes more sense to use a standardized stat like VORP or WARP for such a “but for” analysis. It’s a lot more objective. Check out my tiny little blog later for a more statisictally bent “Mets MVP” analysis.
The test is what a player means to his team. It’s not about if David Wright did not exist but rather about what would happen to the Mets if Wright were to get hurt at any point and the effect he has on the team.
Don’t get me wrong, standardized tests like the VORP are great for determining a league MVP because it is a league-wide statistic.
The NL MVP requires you to take into account the variables of the league. For this, a standardized test is ideal. For determining a team MVP, we are lucky enough to not have variables. We know the respective starters, backups and the platform we are determining an MVP for is fixed: The 2008 New York Mets.
Leave a reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.