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Billy Wagner is one of the top closers in baseball, an All Star, and earns saves far more often than he blows them.
But can the Mets trust Billy Wagner in a big spot?
It seems like we, as Mets fans, are always wrestling with this question regarding their closer. The names change but the issue remains the same. Is it simply myopia? Are we only able to view our closers by their biggest failures? A collective blind spot in the eyes of the fan base, not unlike the hanging curve ball that continues to hang over Carlos Beltran’s head?
Howard Megdal writes in an article in the New York Observer that Wagner has converted 87 percent of his save opportunities. Closers not named Billy Wagner have converted 60 percent of all save opportunities in the National League in 2008’s first half.
Is Wagner unable to close games in big spots? Is he unable to succeed unless he starts the inning in which he pitches? Does he go from Superman to Clark Kent when asked to pitch more than one inning?
In 2006 against the Yankees on national television, Wagner unraveled, after entering the game with a 4-0 lead he walked three hitters after walking 21 hitters all year. The Yanks went on to win the game in extra innings.
In the NLCS he allowed five runs, seven hits and a walk in 2 2/3 innings for a 16.88 ERA in three games. Despite his average of 12 strikeouts per nine innings in his career, he did not strike out a single batter. Wagner’s overall postseason ERA is 8.71—his regular season ERA is 2.40.
In 2007, the only two months Wagner had an ERA over 2.19 were September, at 3.60, and August, at 6.23. Wagner’s career All Star Game ERA is 10.80.
We all remember how Wagner fared as Willie Randolph’s job hung in the balance, as Wagner allowed two home runs, then walked a pair of hitters in three appearances from June 8 through June 12 earning him three blown saves and expediting Randolph’s walking papers.
Ultimately teams have won despite having a closer who could not seal the deal in big games, but the pressure that puts on a team can be too much to overcome, and could be the Mets undoing considering the small margin of error they’ve been accorded in recent years.
Megdal article in the New York Observer details Wagner’s struggles in even greater detail in his article and I suggest you check it out.
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