Like every Mets fan I’ve been pretty frustrated lately, with the looming feeling that we won’t break out of this funk. Granted we’re not this fantastic team that we imagined at the beginning of the season, but especially once Ryan Church returns, we’re not this bad. One of the key things distorting our division outlook right now are the Phillies. Frankly, they’re not this good. Granted, their hitting is fantastic, but hitting can’t take you everywhere (see the Texas Rangers).
Cole Hamels is an ace, a sleek young lefty that really anchors the staff. But beyond him toeing the rubber every fifth day, I’m not sure any of the other four starters are better than any of the Mets starters.
Jamie Moyer is somehow 7-3 with a 4.12 ERA. For an ERA like that those wins are out of proportion, but I doubt his ERA stays that low. Moyer is 45, and last year he had a 5.01 ERA but out of desperation the Phillies needed him to pitch again. Especially in a tiny stadium like Citizens Bank Park, I doubt Moyer can keep his ERA so low and give the Phillies a chance to win on a consistent basis. His fastball barely touches 83 MPH and if he could pitch against the Mets everyday I would say yes, yes and yes.
Kyle Kendrick is 6-2 with a 4.54 ERA. He’s a decent young righty, but normally a pitcher with such a poor ERA does not have six wins. A nice offense helps, but that also takes some luck to be that successful, somehow I can’t imagine that keeps it up. Plus, he only sets himself up for disaster with a miserable 1.47 WHIP. When you let that many people on base, that will eventually translate into many runs. Any batter has to lick his lips when he sees a pitcher that walks guys and opposing hitters bat .288 against.
Brett Myers has been surprisingly unsuccessful going 3-8, with a 5.34 ERA. If you have him going out there every five days for an entire season, its tough to succeed on such a consistent basis. Adam Eaton also lacks talent of various sorts. He’s 2-4 with a 4.57 ERA.
Also, the old Brad Lidge has appeared so far this season. He has 18 saves in 29 appearances, with only 3 earned runs allowed giving him a 0.93 ERA. However, he’s always been a pitcher with mental issues and has always struggled with giving up too many home runs, which will catch up to you in a tiny park like CBP.
So, the story is that besides Cole Hamels, the Phillies have four starters with ERA’s worse than four, many of which are fortunate to be as low as they are. Three of the starters, Moyer, Eaton and Kendrick, strike out less than five guys per nine innings. Brad Lidge has magically returned, but can he stay? Listen, the Phillies are by no means bad and they certainly seem like the clear favorite to win the division, but I think its tough to argue that their pitching is good enough to carry them to the 93 win season that their on pace to have.
So, I guess I know I still have reason to believe.
Update
Later today in the New York Post, Joel Sherman echoed my sentiments, discussing how the Phillies pitching has overachieved thus far, and once it levels the Mets might be able to contend.
Pete Lappin (3)
