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We are now just 24 hours from what is, in my opinion, the biggest day of Omar Minaya’s four-year tenure as the Mets’ general manager. As I explained in a previous post, the Mets’ two first round selections and sandwich pick, which gives them three picks in the first 33 selections may be the ultimate determining factor in this team’s success over the next five years.
The two main reasons for this are because:
1. “Small-market” teams are locking up their young superstars so they will not only never reach free agency until they are over the age of 30, but more importantly never hit arbitration. This will make free agent classes more diluted in the future.
2. Teams who elect not to sign a star player to a long-term deal are trading them for packages of prospects who come from the draft before they lose this player via free agency. (Ex: Johan) Thus, the importance of having a deep system will be even more critical.
I recently took part in a MLB Blogger Mock Draft, where I selected Stanford C Jason Castro with the 18th pick and Arizona St. 1B/OF Ike Davis with the 22nd pick, two prospects who are both as close to being MLB-ready as any other college prospect, and especially at two positions where the Mets are severely lacking depth in their minor league system, I felt that Castro and Davis were the two best options of available players in the mock draft.
With the 33rd pick, I selected Mississippi RHP Lance Lynn. At 6′5″, 270 lbs., Lynn is a monstrous presence on the mound in the mold of Aaron Harang. In 15 starts this season, Lynn went 7-4 with an unimpressive ERA of 4.50 and a 1:1 H/IP ratio. But, Lynn did strike out 110 in 90 innings in a hitter-friendly SEC Conference with a rising fastball he throws in the 91-93 range and an explosive slider that gets up to 87 on the radar gun.
In the second round of the mock draft, I selected Virginia 2B David Adams with the 68th overall pick. Adams, a 6′2″ 210 lb. second baseman, was a first-team preseason All-American but had a less than stellar senior season, batting .285 with 6 home runs and 51 RBI. He also had a .385 OBP and 16 stolen bases in 19 attempts. This was after a junior season in which Adams batted .372 and made Baseball America’s Top 30 Prospects list. Adams is a sure-handed fielder with excellent footwork who projects to be taken in the top two rounds and ranks second on most 2B prospect lists behind fellow ACC’er Miami 2B Jemile Weeks.
In his final mock draft, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, who along with ESPN.com’s Keith Law have the most in-depth scouting reports and inside information, projects the Mets to select high school RHP Tim Melville (Holt, Missouri) with the 18th pick. At 6′5 and armed with a 95-mph fastball, Melville is as highly ranked as they come out of high school and will need to be paid a hefty amount to pass up his commitment to the University of North Carolina. He has drawn comparisons to Yankees RHP Philip Hughes.
Goldstein projects the Mets to take the aforementioned Jemile Weeks with the 22nd pick, who Goldstein says the Mets are very high on. Weeks, the little brother of Milwaukee Brewers 2B Rickie Weeks, is a switch hitter, and at 5′9″ and 155 lbs. is ranked as the best baserunner in the draft. Despite his small frame he is projected to have solid gap power and has already hit 11 homers in the Hurricanes’ first 58 games this season. (The Hurricanes are a ridiculous 50-8 heading into the College World Series). Scouts say he has impeccable footwork around the bag, a quick release on his throws, and is a very intelligent and fundamentally sound player. He is batting .366 to go along with his 11 homers, has 57 RBI and a .447 OBP.
FYI: Goldstein projected Castro, my 18th pick, to go to the Brewers with the 16th pick, and Davis, my 22nd pick, to go 28th overall to the Yankees.
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