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Anthony, my colleague, recently suggested a few ways to improve the Mets by subtraction. I’m going to flip things around and suggest a few ways to improve the Mets by addition.
First, let me say that this Mets team is not as bad as its record. This team has enough talent to win the same 88 games it won last year. indeed Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA-adjusted projections still had us winning 90 games before last night’s win, despite the 23-26 start, and the meager +1 run differential. There are a few reasons for this. We’ve played a tough schedule so far, with 27 road games and 23 home games, mostly against tough teams. We’ve gotten unlucky. I know everyone likes to attribute all the outs on the basepaths, the mistakes in the field, and the balls hit right into the defense on a lack of focus. Of course some of it is lack of focus. But a lot of it is luck. BP says we’ve been the second-unluckiest team in the NL so far (the Rockies are first), and that with normal luck our record should’ve been 25.4-23.6 going into last night’s contest. I doubt fans would be so panicky if we were over .500 right now. Also, we’re just not this bad. All of our regulars are hitting below their projected OPS with two exceptions. Oddly enough, one exception is Jose Reyes, who has come on at the plate lately. The other overachiever is, of course, Ryan Church. No one else has hit as well as they were expected to. Not only that, John Maine is our only starting pitcher who is overachieving. The rest of the rotation has underperformed relative to where they were projected. If just a handful of the underachievers could get their act together, the team will start to look a lot better.
Now that that caveat’s out of the way, it must be said that of course every team can improve, and certainly the Mets should try to better themselves over the next year. Here are two approaches they could take.
In a dream world, the Mets will look to build a team the way a certain Floridian franchise out of Tampa has—by stocking up with young talent, never taking on a bad contract, and locking up their superstars for many years at cost. With that philosophy in mind, here are three money-saving measures the Mets could possibly take to improve the franchise.
1) Hire minor leaguers to perform big league roles for low salaries. In the future, instead of spending millions on the likes of Jorge Sosa, Marlon Anderson, Matt Wise, and Scott Schoeneweis, the Mets should promote their most competent AAA players to do the same thing at one-third the cost or less. Honestly, how much worse could our best AAA guys be than these “proven” veterans? (Yes, I know Schoeneweis is pitching well this year, but his performance last season alone makes his contract laughable.) We could save a bunch of money this way with basically no loss in expected production, and with far more upside. Who knows, one of the AAA guys may actually turn out to be good! (See Ludwick, Ryan.)
2) Sucker a general manager into trading away young talent for some of our crusty veterans. This can be done. Giants GM Brian Sabean, for example, is known to overvalue veterans and undervalue young talent, so much so that he was rumored to be shopping phenom Tim Lincecum this offseason. Even Sabean isn’t dumb enough to part with Lincecum now, but Omar Minaya still might be able to pry away Matt Cain or Jonathan Sanchez for one of our expendable old dudes. Either Cain or Sanchez would give us a great young pitcher at cost, and Sabean just might be foolish enough to trade one of them. If he isn’t, there are other GMs around to hoodwink. It’s worth a try.
3) Draft Cutter Dykstra. The upcoming minor league draft is hugely important for our franchise, and I think drafting Son of Nails would be a great PR move with little downside. It would get the fans excited, and having an excited fan base would allievate a lot of the Mets’ headaches right now. Also Cutter is a top-tier prospect who projects to be a legitimate first or second rounder, and no one really knows how these picks are going to turn out anyway. Let’s gamble on a Dykstra with one of our three picks in the top 33 this June.
Of course, since the Mets are the Mets, and Omar is Omar, they probably won’t go the cost-effective route. Instead, they’ll probably try to spend, spend, spend in the offseason to create the team that will pay the most immediate dividends. Fine. Here are three strong options in the 2008 free agent class if you want to go on a buying spree.
Pat Burrell. This Met-killer has been underrated by Phillies fans (and their management, who tried to trade him) for years. He has a solid 855 career OPS, and he hasn’t posted an OPS lower than 890 since 2004. Yes he plays in a hitters’ park, but he’s still managed an 1106 OPS in 85 road at-bats during his current season (which has been a career one, to this point). If the Phillies don’t want him, the Mets should scoop him up. He’d be an ideal fit in left field.
Adam Dunn. Another beast of a player who’s underrated by his front office. The Reds were supposedly trying to trade Dunn as recently as last season. They’re going to try hard to trade him at this year’s deadline if the Reds are out of contention (which they certainly might be). Dunn is an even better hitter than Burrell, with a career 902 OPS. He’s hit 40 or more homers in four straight seasons, and is still only 28. If the Reds shop him, the Mets should be major players for Dunn. To say we need a first baseman is an understatement, and Dunn has logged plenty of games over there.
Mark Teixiera. He’ll probably be the best free agent available this winter, and that fact, combined with Scott Boras’s negotiating power, probably means he’ll be the toughest to get. Expect the Yankees to break the bank on this guy. But if they don’t, the Mets should try to swoop in and steal him. Teixiera has the same career OPS as Dunn and is the same age, but Teixiera is a significantly better fielder by most accounts, and wouldn’t cost prospects (just money). He’d be an amazing fit for the Mets, if he’s attainable at all.
Some of these ideas may not work, but I firmly believe a few of them could. The good news is that it’s not an either-or situation. The Mets could look for places to cut cost in-house, while at the same time spending in the free agent arena. They can be smart and rich at the same time!
It’s time for the Mets to try something different–to get people talking, to take the pressure off the slumping regulars, and to prove that they won’t overpay for the same mediocre veterans time and time again. Let’s get creative, Omar. Your job may depend on it.
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2 Responses for "How The Mets Could Improve By Addition"
“Omar Minaya still might be able to pry away Matt Cain or Jonathan Sanchez for one of our expendable old dudes.”
so dumb.
You know that Brian Sabean dealt Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, and Joe Nathan to the Twins for A.J. Pierzynski, right?
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