The first six weeks of the 2008 baseball season have angered Met diehards to no end because of frustrating losses, no pitching depth, and an appeared lack of passion or focus from our everyday players, the bottom line is that the future of this franchise rests in the hands of Omar Minaya on June 5th.

For the first time since 2005, the Mets have a first-round pick, and this year we have two (2) first round picks and three (3) selections in the first 33. The 22nd overall pick is ours for finishing last season with the 9th-best record, and the 18th and 33rd overall selections are compensation from the Atlanta Braves for the free-agent signing of Tom Glavine.

The landscape of the league has been changing the last few seasons and the impact of the draft now basically determines your organization’s success. The days of signing big-name free agents are going to dwindle down the drain for two main reasons.

1. “Small-market” teams are locking up their young superstars so they will not only never reach free agency until they are over the age of 30, but more importantly never hit arbitration.

2. Teams who elect not to sign a star player to a long-term deal are trading them for packages of prospects who come from the draft before they lose this player via free agency. (Ex: Johan)

The trend of locking up younger players was started in Cleveland in the early 90’s when then-general manager John Hart locked up Carlos Baerga, Albert Belle, and Jim Thome among others. More recently, the new Indians have done the same with Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez, Fausto Carmona, et al., and to Minaya’s credit, he also did with Jose
Reyes and David Wright, and hopefully soon John Maine.

In fact, in the last two seasons there have been twenty-two players signed to long-term contracts before they have even played three years at the major league level, with the most recent being Florida’s Hanley Ramirez, Tampa Bay’s Scott Kazmir, and Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun in the last week.

There will obviously always be exceptions, as some teams don’t believe that it is smart to lock up these young stars, but there will never again be a large number of big-name free agents in one offseason. Signing free agents is not the fallback option that the Mets want to rely on. Neither is the idea that Minaya will sign international players, because the competition for them is no longer one between the high-payroll organizations, as now every franchise is invested in the Far East and both Latin and South America.

Another reason for the draft’s importance is the immediate impact that draftees are having. In the past, first-round picks usually had to work their way up the system and it was only the rare talents that made the big leagues within one to two years of their selection, now it is becoming more frequent. Here are some numbers to chew on from the last three first rounds, including compensation picks (Omar Minaya and his staff have presided over these three drafts):

2005: 16 of 48 First-Round Picks have reached the major leagues, including 8 of the top 10 selections (Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Mike Pelfrey, and Cameron Maybin)

New York Mets notable selections w/ round: Mike Pelfrey (1); Jon Niese (7)

2006: 10 of 44 First-Round Picks have already reached major leagues. (Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Evan Longoria, Brandon Morrow, Andrew Miller, Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer, Ian Kennedy, Emmanuel Burriss, and Joba Chamberlain) New York Mets third-round pick Joe Smith is another major leaguer from the 2006 draft.
New York Mets notable selections w/ round: Kevin Mulvey (2), Joe Smith (3), Dan Murphy (13)

2007: None have reached the major leagues yet as it was a high-school heavy first round. But, 4-5 players are on pace to be called up this season including the Mets’ Eddie Kunz.
New York Mets notable selections w/ round: Eddie Kunz (Comp), Nathan Vineyard (Comp), Lucas Duda (7), Dylan Owen (20)

There are two key factors that even further stress the importance of Minaya’s three first-round selections. First, is the depleted farm system after the trade for Johan Santana. Aside from Fernando Martinez and fringe prospects Niese, Kunz, and Brant Rustich, the Mets’ system depth is one of the worst in the major leagues. It is an absolute must that Minaya gets three players of value, even just one bad pick would severely hamper this team’s future.

Secondly, with the age of everyday players Carlos Delgado, Luis Castillo, Moises Alou and pitchers Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez, along with the impending free agency of Oliver Perez, Minaya may just have to draft three college players who are as close to major-league ready as possible.

There are a number of mock drafts that you can find around the internet and, I, by no means am a scout who has seen these players first-hand. But, I have done enough research and looked at the statistics of the first-round prospects to decide what route the Mets should take here. In my opinion, the Mets should not simply draft the best available player at each selection but they should combine the most talented player available along with position needs, and most importantly should try to avoid unpolished players who will have to develop at the lower levels.

Most experts believe that the top five selections will be Florida St. catcher Buster Posey, Vanderbilt 3B Pedro Alvarez, high school SS Tim Beckham, Missouri RHP Aaron Crow and San Diego LHP Brian Matusz, After eliminating a number of picks who are sure to be unavailable, here are the three players that I am predicting the Mets to select in this year’s draft.

18. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (Fl.), D.O.B. 4/8/87

Alonso, a switch-hitter at 6′2″, 215 lbs., put up a ridiculous .519 OBP in 2007 as a sophomore for the Hurricanes and has followed it up by posting a .547 OBP for this year’s team who is ranked number #1 in the nation. As of May 15th, he has driven in 57 runs in just 155 AB’s. Most mock drafts project him to go anywhere between 10-20, if he is available at 18, the Mets absolutely cannot pass him up, despite agent Scott Boras’ asking price.

If Alonso is taken, expect the Mets to take University of Georgia closer Joshua Fields who most scouts believe can take his mid 90’s fastball and high 80’s slider directly to the big leagues right after his college season is completed. There are also reports that the Mets are in love with Fields’ teammate at Georgia, SS Gordon Beckham, but don’t expect Beckham to fall to the 18th pick.

22. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami (Fl.) D.O.B. 1/26/87

The younger brother of Milwaukee Brewers’ second baseman Rickie Weeks, and teammate of Alonso at the U. Weeks is also a switch hitter, and at 5′9″ and 155 lbs. is ranked as the best baserunner in the draft. Despite his small frame he is projected to have solid gap power and has already hit 10 homers in the Hurricanes’ first 48 games this season. Scouts say he has impeccable footwork around the bag, a quick release on his throws, and is a very intelligent and fundamentally sound player.

If Weeks is taken, look for the Mets to look at Tulane RHP Shooter Hunt, Eastern Kentucky LHP Christian Fiedrich, or Arizona St. 1B Brett Wallace.

33. Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona, D.O.B. 2/13/87

Perry’s stock rose incredibly in the Cape Cod League this summer, as his fastball consistently sat in the 94-96 range and even touched 98. At 6′4″ and 200 lbs., scouts love his frame and delivery. Although his stats this season at U of A have not impressed (4-3, 3.56 ERA, 60 IP 60 K), the Mets are in desperate need of a hard thrower in the bullpen and Perry should be the guy. Don’t be surprised if Minaya, in an attempt to inject some positivity back into the fan base, selects Cutter Dykstra, California HS shortstop, and obviously son of Nails.

Other possibilities here include Mississippi RHP Cody Satterwhite, Notre Dame RHP Kyle Weiland, UCLA LHP Tim Murphy, and California HS OF/RHP Aaron Hicks. Hicks may be the most electrifying athlete in the draft, he is a phenomenal talent whose stock has slipped over concerns he may spurn contract offers to attend college.

Ideally, these are the Mets’ picks and this package is certainly not out of the question. Alonso and Weeks could join Reyes and Wright in the Mets’ infield by 2009 and Perry could be a valuable addition to the bullpen as early as 2009 as well. But, with the draft successes in Philadelphia and Washington over the last two seasons, regardless of who the Mets select, the pressure on Minaya is undeniable, because any mistake in this year’s draft could send the Mets to the bottom of the National League East. And, yes, it’s THAT important, and surprisingly enough to Mets fans even more important than a 3-4 homestand in May.

Andrew Smith is also co-editor of TheKnicksBlog.com