Before the season I took a stab at guessing the OPS of all our regulars, and I even dared to stage a mini-contest between my haphazard guesses and the exhaustively-researched PECOTA projections of Baseball Prospectus. I figure a rainout is as good a time as any to check in on how each of us is doing.

Carlos Delgado. My guess: 790 OPS. Baseball Prospectus’s projection: 815 OPS. Current OPS: 645.

Boy does his current number (and our entire season) look a lot better after Sunday’s game. I personally don’t care if Carlos never does another curtain call, so long as he keeps hitting like he did against John Smoltz et al. Carlos posted a 522 OPS last April, so believe it or not, his start to this season will constitute an improvement. As I’ve noted in other posts, Carlos rebounded in 2007 and managed an 837 OPS from May on, so I’m still holding out hope that BP’s number will prove better than mine for 2008.

Luis Castillo. Me: 715. BP: 702. Current: 680.

Castillo draws walks, hits singles (his two doubles are his only extra-base hits in 84 plate appearances so far this season), allows base stealers in front of him a chance to do their magic, and runs the bases pretty well his own self. These skills are overvalued by most, but they are skills nonetheless, and at the very least Castillo does what you expect him to on a consistent basis.

Jose Reyes. Me: 775. BP: 788. Current: 664.

We all know Jose is off to a slow start, but he has shown flashes of the brilliance we all know he possesses. Thankfully the handshakes are back, a decision 97% of SNY viewers agreed with (best poll question ever, by the way), and I still believe Jose is going to have a highly successful year. His OPS last September was a mere 612, so maybe we can look at this April as the beginning of an upward trend.

David Wright. Me: 900. BP: 935. Current: 980.

What can you say about David Wright? Actually, I said it in my last post so I won’t repeat myself here. Suffice to say, he’s really, really good.

Brian Schneider. Me: 700. BP: 664. Current: 700.

Schneider’s 309 batting average and 391 on-base percentage might lead a Mets fan to believe that he’s far exceeded expectations up to this point in the season. But Schneider does not have a single extra-base hit in 63 plate appearances. That, and his inability to stay healthy, have severely cut into whatever value he has (and I’m not even mentioning his three passed balls). His catcher ERA is, however, more than a full run better than Raul Casanova’s in a small sample size, so maybe there’s something to his defensive value after all.

Moises Alou. Me: 850. BP: 852. Current: NA.

Sigh.

Carlos Beltran. Me: 880. BP: 864. Current: 771.

Because they’ve had similar batting averages for much of this season, the two Carloses have often been lumped together when discussing the Mets’ early struggles. The difference, of course, is that Beltran has six more walks and six more extra-base hits than Delgado. Beltran will be just fine, thanks. Even in his banner year of 2006, Beltran had one month where he posted a 769 OPS (September). We have little reason to worry about our center fielder.

Ryan Church. Me: 800. BP: 821. Current: 834.

As with his fellow ex-Nat, it feels as though Church has overachieved more than he actually has. This might be because he’s second on the team in RBI (which isn’t a great indicator of how he’s really performing) and leading the team in batting average (another misleading stat). But he’s only taken nine walks (tied for fifth on the club), and has exactly the same number of extra-base hits as Delgado (6). Expect Church to be right around his projections this season.

Endy Chavez. Me: 705. BP: 696. Current: 476.

The key number here is not 476, but 29–that’s how many plate appearances Endy has received in the early season. With Angel Pagan playing over his head to start the year, it seemed reasonable enough at the time for Endy to appear as rarely as he did. With Pagan coming back to Earth, and Alou still out for who knows how much longer, and the spring starting to fade into later spring and early summer, I predict Endy will begin to see more starts at all three outfield positions.

Ramon Castro. Me: 780. BP: 787. Current: NA.

Sigh.

BP is off to the early lead, beating me for five of the eight above players who’ve actually appeared for the New York Mets this season. I am, however, a Luis Castillo home run away from tying this thing up. Of course, when you’re counting on a Luis Castillo homer, you’re going to be counting for a long time.

Let’s go Mets!