As we approach Spring Training without having decided on a starting rotation, we fans, and indeed the Mets front office, seem to be getting desperate for a solution. We’re so desperate, in fact, that it was recently reported in the Rocky Mountain News that the Mets were “close” to signing Livan Hernandez. Thankfully, sources within the Mets have refuted the claim, but they acknowledge that Livan is one of the veterans they will look to sign should the Mets fail to land Johan Santana.

I’ve heard bandied about many reasons why signing Livan would be good for the Mets. 1) he will “eat innings”; 2) he is the best choice in an atrocious free agent class; 3) he’s El Duque’s half-brother, and wouldn’t that be fun? 4) the signing would allow us to push our younger pitchers to the side for a few years while they develop.

In case you haven’t guessed, I think all these reasons are bunk.

First, “eating innings” isn’t an asset. You can find a steady stream of AA and AAA pitchers to throw as many (poorly-pitched) major league innings as you want, provided your only goal is to “eat innings.” You could even do it without burning prospects. There really isn’t much value in having one lousy pitcher eat the innings versus having twenty lousy pitchers eat the innings. Who knows, one of the twenty lousy guys might even turn out to be good.

Second, even if Livan were the best choice in the free agent class, that’s not a reason to sign somebody. In fact, it may even be a reason not to sign somebody, because you’ll almost certainly be overpaying (see Zito, Barry). You sign a free agent because it benefits your organization to do so. If none of the free agents will benefit your organization, you don’t sign one just for the sake of signing one.

Third, it might be fun for Livan and El Duque if they got to play on the same team, but it doesn’t change Livan’s value as a pitcher, and we certainly shouldn’t spend millions of dollars on someone just to make El Duque slightly happier. He seems like a pretty happy guy already.

Fourth, if our younger players are going to be just as good as the veteran we sign, then we want to push our younger players into the big leagues. I’m sure many of my readers have heard the stat guy’s adage, “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.” Those who already agree with this idea need no further explanation. For those who don’t agree, let me ask you this: if one of our best prospects, a prospect you considered close-but-not-quite-ready for major league action right now, were to (God forbid) suffer a career-ending injury in 2010, would you rather he’d pitched for the Mets for two years first, or would you rather he never wore a Mets uniform? Put another way, would you rather our prospect became major league-ready in the minors, where he threw major league stuff for a year or two before we had room for him; or would you rather he became major league-ready in the majors, so that every one of his major league caliber pitches were actually thrown to major leaguers?

It’s fun to refute all the bogus arguments for signing Livan, but while we’re at it, why don’t we make a rock-solid argument for not signing Livan? And here it is: he’s a terrible pitcher. Last year he struck out 90 batters in 204 1/3 innings. He walked almost that many (79). His WHIP was 1.60. Here is an exhaustive list of the Met pitchers who had a higher WHIP last year: Mike Pelfrey, Jason Vargas, Aaron Sele, Brian Lawrence, Chan Ho Park, Lino Urdaneta, Willie Collazo, and Dave Williams. Not exactly a Cy Young Award ballot. Jorge Sosa’s WHIP was 1.33. You want to say that last year Livan Hernandez had an off-year? Fine. In 2006 his WHIP was 1.50, and he struck out 128 batters in 216 innings. If it’s ERA you’re interested in, he posted a 4.93 last year, and a 4.83 in 2006. There’s no other way to spin it. He stinks. And we shouldn’t exactly be expecting him to improve at age 33.

Signing Livan to a two-year deal, as the Mets are reportedly interested in doing, would be a colossal mistake. Just look at Mike Bauman’s (of mlb.com) article defending a Livan signing. The best he can say is that Livan has a pulse, and he’ll show up for work every day. If that’s not faint praise, I don’t know what is. The Mets would be much, much better off going with their younger players in the number 5 starter’s role than in signing a washed-up veteran to a two-year deal. I guess I should hope we land Johan Santana—even though I’m not in favor of trading the farm for him—just to avoid the Livan disaster.