Over the next week, I’ll be breaking down the things that have to go right for the Mets this year if they want to make the playoffs.

So far, I’ve discussed Maine and Perez, Pedro’s Arm, and the Bullpen.

Note: All of this is done assuming we do not make any significant acquisitions of any sort, be it through trade or a free agent signing.

Today, I’ll be discussing the 5th spot in the rotation.

Assuming no trades are made, the first four spots in the rotation will likely go to Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez and Orlando Hernandez.

Now, lets take a look at that 5th spot.

The favorite: Mike Pelfrey.

Last year, Pelfrey struggled mightily as a starter for the Mets. In 13 starts, he was 3-8 with a 5.58 ERA in 69.1 innings of duty. Even more troubling, was the fact that he allowed 36 walks compared to only 43 strikeouts.

Lets take a closer look at his year last year. After making the rotation after a solid spring training, Pelfrey quickly found himself at 0-5, and playing for the AAA Zephyrs. After getting called back up in July, Pelfrey found himself at 0-7. He then got demoted again.

However, Pelfrey showed lots of promise when the rosters got expanded in September, and he was brought back up. And keep in mind, September was a month when there were few bright spots for the Mets. On September 1st, Pelfrey threw 6 innings of one-hit ball, while striking out 7, to beat the Braves and register his 1st win of the season. He then won his next start against Houston, and recorded a 3rd victory of the month (and season) against the Nats later that month. However, he did lose one game on the 28th to the Nats, which would prove to be crucial.

Everybody knows how Pelfrey has an incredible sinking fastball that ranges in the mid-90’s. However, people doubt the quality of his secondary pitches. However, if Pelfrey can command his fastball enough and avoid walks, he can succeed on the major league level as he proved in September.

Next Guy Up: Phillip Humber

Humber was a college star at Rice, and was in their rotation as a freshman. The Mets took him with the 3rd pick in the draft, and after a long wait, gave him a $3.7 million signing bonus. However, in 2005 Humber hurt his elbow, resulting in Tommy John Surgery.

Since then, Humber has pitched in the minors and a couple brief stints in the Majors, however has not had the endurance to really prove himself. He got off to quick starts in most of his games, but fatigued down the stretch. Most people who get Tommy John Surgery need two years to regain their endurance, so look for him to have a strong rebounding season this year, should he get the opportunity in the big leagues.

The Dark Horse: Kevin Mulvey

Mulvey is known for having good composure. He features a fastball that sits in the high 80’s and low 90’s, which also has good sink. Look for him to surprise during spring training. Although it is such a small window to preview a pitcher, people have come out of no where and earned rotation spots for the Mets in previous years, like Brian Bannister. Look for him to really put the pressure on Pelfrey and Humber during spring training, to make sure they know if they mess up, he’ll be in AAA waiting to take their spot on the big club.

Now, what do the Mets need from this 5th starter spot?

Realistically, you can’t expect too much from your last spot in the rotation. However, when you’re putting a young gun in there like Pelfrey, Humber of Mulvey, they have the potential to surprise. While that is great, they have to be consistent. They can’t be going out there every 5th day blowing games early, and not giving the team a chance to win. They also can’t get out of games to early, and kill our bullpen. Whoever earns that spot, needs to go out there, not shoot to ‘wow’ people but aim to give the Mets lineup a chance to win.