Over the next week, I’ll be breaking down the things that have to go right for the Mets this year if they want to make the playoffs.

Already, I have discussed Pedro’s arm, and the bullpen.

Note: All of this is done assuming we do not make any significant acquisitions of any sort, be it through trade or a free agent signing.

Today, I’ll be looking at what we need from John Maine and Oliver Perez this year.  First lets look at Maine’s numbers from last year:

Maine had a phenomenal first half of the season, going 10-4 with a 2.71 ERA and a .214 opposing batting average.  However, after the all-star break Maine struggled.  The second half of the season, Maine was 5-6 with a 5.53 ERA and a .261 opposing batting average.  His final numbers were 15-10 with a 3.91 ERA and a .235 batting average against.

After seeing him throw only 15 starts in 2006, the Mets really couldn’t have expected any better from Maine last year.  In those 15 starts, he was 6-5 with a 3.64 ERA and a .211 opposing batting average.  However, in those starts he gave up a whopping 15 home runs.

This year, the Mets need at least the same type of performance from Maine.  Even though he left town on the wrong foot, Tom Glavine’s consistency will be difficult to replace, and Maine has to be one of the guys that steps up.  While expecting him to put up numbers the way he did before the all-star break last year is ridiculous, Maine has to be more consistent throughout the year.  A large part of the collapse was set in motion by poor performances from guys like Maine (despite his two gems in September).  Especially in the weak hitting NL, Maine needs to post an ERA hovering around 3.50 while collecting 15-17 wins.

Now Perez:

Last year, Perez was 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA and a .229 opposing batting average.  However, Perez often had difficulty with walks, issuing a total of 79 last year in 177 innings pitched. 

In 2006, where he split time between the Pirates and Mets, Perez struggled.  He was 3-13 with a 6.55 ERA while batters hit a strong .293 against him.  So, in truth–despite his universally recognized talent–last year’s performance by Perez was really a minor miracle.  He added 12 wins to his line, had three fewer losses and his ERA dropped by over 3 runs a game. 

Expect big things from Perez this year.  Beyond the fact that he’ll almost certainly benefit from another season under the tutelage of Rick Peterson, it’s a contract year for Ollie.  On the open market, a lefty who won 15 games and struck out 174 people will definitely cash in.  The Mets need consistency from Perez.  Despite his strong numbers, Perez would fall into phases where he can’t find the strike zone or just can’t get his slider across the dish.  The Mets need more consistent performances day in and day out from Perez this year.  They need him to walk less people, and win another game or two.

With an oft-injured ace in Pedro Martinez, an oft-injured starter in Orlando Hernandez, and very shaky 5th spot in the rotation, the Mets need Perez and Maine to build on their solid performance to last year, if they want to lead the Mets to the playoffs.