Over the next week, I’ll be breaking down the things that have to go right for the Mets this year if they want to make the playoffs.

Yesterday, I began the series by discussing the bullpen. 

Note: All of this is done assuming we do not make any significant acquisitions of any sort, be it through trade or a free agent signing.

The Mets need 25-30 starts from Pedro Martinez.  That means Pedro can take his one 15-day DL stint of the year, which he seems to take annually.  But he can’t take any more than that. 

People called it a minor miracle that Pedro was able to return 8 months after rotator cuff surgery.  In those 5 starts he had last year, he was 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA in 28 innings of duty.  People said he was in the best physical shape of his career, having bulked up his upper body a fair amount.

The rest of our rotation will most likely be: Oliver Perez, John Maine, Orlando Hernandez and Mike Pelfrey.

I’ll discuss the rest of the rotation tomorrow, but that group of kids and Grandpa Duque, need Pedro’s veteran leadership and consistency.

Pedro staying healthy will be no easy task.  Through all of 2006, he had the nagging toe injury, which limited him to only 23 starts that season.  Throughout the rest of his career, he has been sidelined with other injuries like his calf and hamstring. While he always has the vigor of a young phenom, let’s not forget: Pedro is 36 years old.   

With doubts about the health of El Duque, and already a very shaky 5th spot in the rotation most likely being given to Mike Pelfrey, the Mets cannot afford another hole in the rotation and force Phillip Humber into the rotation when he’s not yet ready, especially if we realistically expect to compete. Even so, after a devastating collapse last year, the team cannot afford to have its leader go down once again.