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Hot Foot is going to present both sides of the debate as to if the Mets should meet the reported demands of the Twins to offer either Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez along with three pitching prospects or one of Gomez or Martinez and four pitching prospects for Johan Santana. I will be presenting the case for, and later today Andrew Beaton will present the case against.
I want to preface my case by saying I have a sneaking suspicision that the Mets are simply trying to make it seem like they’re making an effort to appease fans, but don’t want to make the commitment in money or prospects it would take to land Santana. My other suspicion is that the reason the Mets reportedly declined the deal was because they believe the Twins will simply take the offer to the Yankees and Red Sox and use it as leverage. The only way the Mets can make this offer is if the Twins are forced to take it or leave it.
If the Mets can have them meet this demand, I believe the Mets should make the deal. While they would be giving up pretty much every top prospect in their system, if any of these players were to meet their potential the Mets would still likely come up on the better end of this deal. The chances of any of them becoming as good as Johan Santana are remote at best.
The other consideration is that the Mets have two high picks in the upcoming draft, one of them the 18th overall pick, which will quickly replenish their system, along with Omar Minaya’s declaration that the Mets will seriously consider not going by the MLB guidance to not pay above slot. The Mets have been good citizens while teams like the Yankees have scooped up players like Philip Hughes and Joba Chamberlain by paying for players other teams passed on to appease the Commissioner.
You cannot be paralyzed with the fear that a player you trade for could get injured. Any player could get injured. If you operated under this kind of neuroticism, you would never make any deal.
The other argument against is the money you would have to devote to Santana. I believe Santana will eventually sign for between $21 to $22 million a year for 6 years. He is likely more interested in the years than getting more money per year.
The Mets have all sorts of new revenue streams, a new stadium, a new television network, and $20 million a year from Citi for naming rights, which pays for most of Santana’s contract. I don’t believe this deal would seriously affect their ability to make other deals in the future.
The Mets problem with pitching started with the rotation not holding down their end of the bargain enough and left the bullpen overworked and out of gas by the time the Mets truly needed them in the final two months of the season. Santana would bring much needed stability and provide a bona fide young proven ace for the foreseeable future to go along with a powerful core of Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Maine and Perez.
Missing out on opportunities to get the top value for your prospects is as foolish as holding onto them and never benefiting from what they can do for your long and short term goals. Much like holding onto a hot Wall Street stock too long only to watch it drop to the floor, one must get optimal returns on their investments.
The Mets traded Lastings Milledge at the lowest point of his value. That my friends is what I would describe as a very poor business decision. What I am advocating here is that the Mets deal their prospects for optimal value. I can’t think of a better pay off on their prospect portfolio than to acquire the best young pitcher in baseball in return.
To balk at the idea of adding one additional player in this deal, be it Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, or Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber, Mike Pelfrey, or Deolis Guerra is foolish. The chances that any of those players having a career like that of Johan Santana are not good. It is better to have a bird in the hand than two in the bush.
Johan instantly gives the Mets a jolt, not only by solidifying their rotation, but by bringing legitimacy to the team in the same way Pedro Martinez did as the Mets turned the corner in the beginning of the Minaya administration.
The time has come for Minaya to make another bold move. The Mets have been a good team over the past two years but have not been able to get over that final hurdle and return to the World Series.
Make the move Omar, before they change their minds.
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