There once was a team who thought it had its division title entirely wrapped up, only to fall apart in the final weeks of the season. That team, of course, is the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals.

Exactly one year ago today, the Cardinals were feeling pretty good. The Mets had just clinched their division title the night before, and the Cardinals had to assume they would soon follow. Sure, the Mets were 92-58 with a 14.5-game lead, but the Cardinals were 80-69 with a 7-game lead over the Reds, and were assuredly next in line. Over the next seven days, the Cardinals lost seven games. The Houston Astros, meanwhile, won seven games over that same stretch. On September 19, 2006, the Astros, 8.5 games back, had probably left themselves for dead. On September 26, 2006, the Astros were a mere 1.5 games out of a playoff spot.

In case you’ve forgotten, both teams went 3-2 over their final five games, and the Cardinals held on to win the division by a game and a half. And oh yeah, they wound up winning the World Series.

I can’t offer proof that both the Mets and Phillies will win seven games the rest of the way, thus ensuring a 1.5-game victory for the New York side. I can say, however, that these collapses happen, and they don’t have to be fatal.

These are the times that try men’s souls–and I’m talking more about the souls of the fans than the souls of the ballplayers. Management is gambling that Baseball Prospectus, and their cockamamie math that still gave us a 95% chance of winning the division going into yesterday, knows what its doing. Management is gambling that we can go with a six-man rotation and rest our veterans, at the expense of running guys like Brian Lawrence out on the mound. Management is gambling that we can pull Moises “I get a hit every at-bat” Alou if he feels even the slightest stiffness in his quad, just as a precaution. Management is gambling that we can do all these things and still win the division. Management makes this gamble because it is confident that the 2007 New York Mets will not screw this up, just as the 2006 Cardinals didn’t. It may be a heart attack for us fans, but if this patchwork squad (we have, after all, been dealing with some serious injury or other for basically the entire season) can still manage to win the division title, all of the other stuff will be forgotten. Some of you younger fans may not know it, but there’s a saying we Mets fans cling to at times like this (and by the way younger fans, there will be many, many more times like this over the course of your lives): Ya Gotta Believe.

Let’s Go Mets!

(And yes, I plan to claim, once we finally do win that title, that my return to posting here after a long hiatus was the cause of the Mets resurgence.)