Since the last time I posted one of these, we’ve gone 5-11. That’s five wins against eleven losses. Yikes. But we all need to keep in mind the big picture (and maybe, just maybe, that 2-0 win over the Yanks last night will help everyone to do just that). The fact is that we are currently on pace to win 92 games, which is pretty much exactly what we were expected to do going into the season. Considering that we’ve had three different position players and one starting pitcher miss significant time with injuries, and considering that Mike Pelfrey didn’t pan out, and considering that Carlos Delgado is drastically underperforming, I’d say we’re pretty lucky to be where we were “expected” to be right about now.

So how are we doing it?

Overperformer #1: Jose Reyes. Baseball Prospectus projected Jose to post a 766 OPS this year. He’s currently at 866. (I picked him to post an 890.) As badly as the middle of the order has struggled, thank God for Jose.

Overperformer #2: Shawn Green. This one caught everybody by surprise. I picked him to post a 740 OPS, and BP wasn’t much more optimistic, projecting 760. He’s sitting at 823 right now, with an impressive .465 slugging percentage. Green has bailed us out a lot on offense. (We won’t speak of his defense.)

Overperformers #3 and #4: John Maine and Oliver Perez. I don’t think anyone needs to be reminded of how these two guys have so vastly exceeded expectations. Together, they’ve given up 54 earned runs in 162 2/3, for an ERA of 2.99. Let me say that again. When Maine or Ollie are on the mound our ERA is UNDER THREE. Absolutely incredible. Neither BP nor myself projected them to be anywhere near 2.99, or even under 4.00.

Overperformer #5: Orlando Hernandez. His ERA is even better than the kids’. No one in the world thought he’d have a 2.38 at this point of the season. His strikeout rate, however, is down from last year.

Overperformer #6: Jorge Sosa. That he’s performing at all makes him an overperformer. That he’s 6-2 with a 3.42 ERA makes him the most pleasant surprise of the entire team.

I like to be a positive guy, so I won’t say too much about the underperformers. But…

Underperformer #1: Carlos Delgado (obviously). Projected OPS, 876. Current, 686.
Underperformer #2: Carlos Beltran. Projected OPS, 906. Current, 819.
Underperformer #3: Scott Schoeneweis. Projected ERA, 4.30. Current, 6.95. Ugh.
Underperformer #4: Mike Pelfrey. He seems to be getting his act together in AAA, though.

For those who were enjoying the Me vs. BP prediction battle I started at the beginning of the year, the current numbers are below (OPS for hitters, ERA for pitchers). Let’s go Mets this weekend!

Current/BP/Mine
Reyes 866/766/890
Wright 881/925/910
Beltran 819/906/940
Delgado 686/876/930
Alou 819/839/NA
Green 823/760/740
Lo Duca 707/726/695
Valentin 755/776/750

Glavine 4.15/4.05/3.88
El Duque 2.38/4.18/4.42
Maine 3.05/4.33/4.00
Perez 2.93/4.46/4.00
Pelfrey 6.53/4.38/3.85
Wagner 2.15/2.32/2.41
Heilman 3.86/3.81/2.45
Feliciano 1.93/3.90/2.98
Schoeneweis 6.95/4.30/3.67

BP is now beating me for nine of the 16 players we both made picks for. Come on Carloses, put me back in the lead!!