The Mets experienced some losses this winter. They lost Chad
Bradford, he of the 1.16 WHIP, and the one home run allowed (one!) in 70
innings of work, to a three-year $10.5 million contract with the O’s. They lost
veterans Cliff Floyd and Steve Trachsel, allowing them to walk away. Although it’s
hard to argue with Mets management on these moves, I’ll miss reading Cliff’s
quotes, and I find it somewhat distressing that Tom Glavine has been a Met
longer than anyone else on the roster. (Pedro Feliciano was with the team in
2002, a year before Glavine arrived, but Feliciano spent 2005 in Japan
before re-joining us last year). Another loss occurred on the coaching staff,
when Manny Acta departed to manage the Washington Nationals. I normally don’t
spend a lot of time worrying about coaching changes, and at first this one was
no different. But then I read this article in the Washington Times. Compare
this quote from Acta: “We will run selectively. I think one of the things that
doomed this club last year is that they were first in caught stealing.” to this
one from Willie Randolph: “[Beltran] could steal 40-to-50 bases easy.”

Now I’m not knocking Willie, here. Carlos Beltran has
historically been one of the most effective base stealers in the game, with a
career stolen base percentage of 87.6%. That’s an astounding number, and if
Beltran can steal bases at that kind of clip it will be an enormous boon to our
offense. That said, Acta has the correct philosophy. The stolen base is only a
good play with an excellent basestealer. For example, assuming typical hitters
behind him and typical pitchers on the mound, a leadoff man on first base in
the home first inning needs about a 71% success rate to justify an attempted
steal of second. Half the teams in the National League had SB percentages lower
than 71% last season. In two years under Randolph,
the Mets have stolen bases at a truly remarkable 79.9% clip, second in the
majors (the Phillies were successful 80.0% of the time).

Part of me worries that Acta has been the one preaching
selective base stealing, and that Acta is the reason the Mets have done so well
in choosing the right times to run. Another, more rational part of me thinks
that Willie understands who should run and when, and that since the only real
base stealers we have are Jose Reyes and Beltran (and, to some extent, David Wright), we
should be fine. I just can’t help being paranoid when so many teams go so wrong
on the basepaths—so wrong that maybe they shouldn’t be attempting stolen bases
at all.

Ramblings:

-I don’t know if we’ll see a lot of doomsday predictions on
Oliver Perez following his 2 IP, 4ER outing today, but any such predictions are
not justified, in my opinion. First, his velocity clearly isn’t there yet, as
it typically is not there for any pitcher this early in the spring. Ollie
topped out in the high eighties today. We all know he has a mid-nineties
fastball when he’s full-strength, and that his fastball is one of his best
weapons. Second, Perez for the most part got hurt in the strike zone today. His
location wasn’t always perfect, but it was far from terrible. He threw more
than twice as many strikes as balls. For his first outing of the spring, I
think that’s a pretty good sign. In short, I wouldn’t read anything at all into
today’s start by Ollie. I still think he’s a big favorite to begin the season
in the rotation.

-It was the first game for everyone today, and that certainly
includes new third-base coach Sandy Alomar, Sr. On Julio Franco’s two-run
single in the eighth, Alomar stood still as a stone while Lastings Milledge approached
third base, even though it was immediately clear that Milledge had to be sent.
Not knowing what else to do, Milledge slowed down, and then decided on his own
to keep chugging along. Only after Milledge had rounded third and taken several
steps towards home did Alomar give a half-hearted “Go” signal. (Milledge ended
up scoring anyway.) The announcers, meanwhile, assigned almost all the blame on
Milledge, accusing him of not picking up the third-base coach. They never
realized there was nothing to pick up. Keith Hernandez finally did say that
hey, there was a new third-base coach out there and maybe that had something to
do with it. Also, it seemed to me that Gary Cohen et al were far too
results-oriented in analyzing Perez’s start. Every hard-hit ball he gave up was
“up in the zone” or a “hanger,” but his strikeout pitch, which clearly looked
like a hanger to me, was “down.” Ron Darling described a pitch that Curtis
Granderson ripped as “middle-middle.” I actually thought Perez got good
location on the inside corner on that pitch and that Granderson, a
good major league hitter, just turned on it. I love Cohen, Darling, and Hernandez in the
booth, but they’re definitely in preseason form right now.

-I found it an odd coincidence that two members of our last
World Series team were just traded for each other in the Atlantic League. Best
of luck to Edgardo Alfonzo and Pat Mahomes (but especially Fonzie) as they try
to work their way back to the bigs.

-Can someone explain to me how getting a major league
prospect to run around the bases qualifies as a practical joke? “Hey, this guy
is really good at this thing, so wouldn’t it be so funny if we get him to do
that thing he’s really good at? Then we’ll all have a hearty laugh!” When I
heard that Randolph
had played a practical joke on Carlos Gomez, I was thinking shaving cream, or some bubble gum, or at least a fat frog had to be involved somehow. I guess I’ll just never
understand jock culture.